Wer hat Interesse an dem neusten Bericht,

der CSFB vom 05.02.01
U.S.Technology/Telecom Equipment-Wireline

Aussichten für solche Unternehemen wie Jnpr, GLW, JDSU, SDLI etc.


gruß
proxi

Exhibit 2
Group Price Performance for period 1/26/01-2/02/01
Price Price
Ticker 2/2/01 1/26/01 % Change
SYSTEMS COMPANIES
ALCATEL ALA B / $90 $56.85 $57.81 -1.7%
CISCO SYSTEMS CSCO SB / $65 $35.50 $38.38 -7.5%
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU B / $30 $17.73 $18.06 -1.8%
MARCONI PLC. MONI B / $32 $19.63 $20.38 -3.7%
NORTEL NETWORKS NT SB / $80 $36.01 $37.50 -4.0%
OPTICAL/IP SYSTEMS
CORVIS CORPORATION CORV SB / $75 $19.81 $20.50 -3.4%
JUNIPER NETWORKS JNPR SB / $250 $100.69 $118.75 -15.2%
ONI SYSTEMS ONIS SB / $80 $53.31 $53.00 0.6%
SYCAMORE NETWORKS SCMR B / $85 $29.25 $38.75 -24.5%
TELLABS INC TLAB SB / $70 $65.00 $60.94 6.7%
OPTICAL SUBSYSTEMS/COMPONENTS
JDS UNIPHASE JDSU B / $100 $50.00 $59.63 -16.1%
LUMINENT LMNE B / $17 $9.34 $6.44 45.1%
NEW FOCUS NUFO B / $65 $50.00 $48.94 2.2%
NEWPORT CORP NEWP R $75.56 $88.81 -14.9%
SDL SDLI B $185.61 $218.00 -14.9%
BROADBAND ACCESS INFRASTRUCTURE
ACCELERATED NETWORKS ACCL B $2.63 $3.06 -14.3%
ADC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ADCT B $14.00 $15.00 -6.7%
CARRIER ACCESS CORP. CACS B $8.13 $8.94 -9.1%
EFFICIENT NETWORKS EFNT B $14.38 $15.50 -7.3%
NEXT LEVEL COMMUNICATIONS NXTV B $12.06 $13.31 -9.4%
CABLE SYSTEMS/EQUIPMENT
COM21 CMTO H $5.38 $5.63 -4.4%
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA B / $80 $55.00 $60.56 -9.2%
Average: -5.2%
S&P Industrials: SPII -0.6%
S&P 500: SP50 -0.4%
Nasdaq Composite COMP -4.3%
Source: FactSet
Commentary: Network Usage Trends will Ultimately Dictate 2001 Capi-tal
Spending Requirements for IP/Optical Systems.
Despite the significant deceleration in the growth rate of spending by U.S. service
providers on wireline infrastructure, network usage trends and fundamentals remain
positive based upon reported results by the large regional bell operating companies
(RBOCs) in Q4:00. The ongoing growth in network usage is crucial to support our
view that demand for metropolitan area and core optical/IP systems will be healthy
(approximately a 50% increase) in 2001. We believe all segments of the U.S. busi-ness
market continue to embrace higher access connectivity speeds to support
growing application and usage requirements. This trend also reflects the improving
quality of the services offered by telecom operators creating a substitution effect
from high-end private enterprise networks that were traditionally used to support
WAN connectivity. In addition, we are encouraged by the strong advance in usage
that occurred despite a sequential deceleration in the rate of xDSL installations.
The absolute number of subscriber additions combined with increasing length of
connection times creates the positive usage effect that we describe below.
The rate of growth in bits on service provider networks accelerated again during the
December quarter of 2000. Exhibit 3 outlines the increase in the rate of growth of
voice grade equivalents (VGEs) on the access networks of the major RBOCs in the
U.S. market. One VGE is equivalent to 64 Kbps, or one DS-0. The majority of the
VGE lines are T-1s supporting all segments of the business market. Each T-1 can
accommodate 24 voice conversations, each one digitized at 64 Kbps, with one 8
Kbps channel for signaling and control. The weighted average year-over-year voice

Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 3 –
grade equivalent (VGE) growth is determined by taking the total access lines re-ported
by the four RBOCs for a quarter, (e.g. 308.4 million in Q4) and comparing it
to the same quarter for the previous year, (e.g. 257.4 million in Q4 of 1999). This
calculation takes into account each RBOC’s proportionate access lines as opposed
to taking a simple average of the four growth rates. VGEs accelerated again during
Q4:00 to 19.8% year over year growth vs. 17.3% during Q3:00 and 12.8% in Q4:99.
Substantial increases in the rate of access connectivity account for the ongoing up-ward
trajectory in traffic growth. The most dramatic sequential improvement oc-curred
at Verizon primarily because of the company’s improved xDSL installation
rates.
Exhibit 3
RBOC Voice Equivalent Growth
Carrier 99Q1 99Q2 99Q3 99Q4 00Q1 00Q2 00Q3 00Q4
Verizon 11.6% 11.8% 12.3% 12.2% 12.0% 14.7% 14.2% 19.5%
Bell South 13.6% 14.1% 14.1% 16.3% 17.5% 20.7% 25.3% 25.3%
SBC 7.2% 7.7% 8.7% 9.5% 12.6% 14.6% 14.8% 17.0%
Qwest 13.1% 14.7% 14.6% 19.3% 19.1% 20.5% 22.3% 20.9%
Average 10.6% 11.1% 11.6% 12.8% 14.1% 16.4% 17.3% 19.8%
Source: Company Press Releases
We believe the above statistics as well as other metrics that provide insight into
network usage fundamentals are good leading indicators to future network deploy-ment
needs. The positive trends do not necessarily suggest that a near-term ac-celeration
in total capital spending is imminent. However, the data does support
our thesis that service providers will shift the mix of spending to next generation
IP/optical systems that better position these companies to scale network require-ments,
redefine cost of network ownership and enable new revenue generating
services. Specifically, we project a robust spending environment for next genera-tion
metro access, transport (next generation SONET/SDH aggregation systems
such as the Cisco 15454 and RedBack SmartEdge) and metro core (metro DWDM
systems) infrastructure as well as an ongoing shift to higher speed interfaces (from
OC-3/12 to OC-48/192 as well as gigabit ethernet connectivity) on packet switches
and routers deployed in the network. The outlook for electrical aggregation sys-tems
such as DSLAMs and related CPE is less positive in the near-term as service
providers deplete the significant inventory that was purchased during H2:00. We
will continue to track network usage requirements closely given their importance in
determining the magnitude of the overall deceleration in the growth rate of capital
spending by U.S. telecom service providers on wireline systems.

Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 4 –
News of the Week
Dell’Oro Survey Forecasts Strong Growth for DSL
The Dell’Oro Group recently released its five-year growth forecast for the
Broadband Infrastructure and Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) Markets. This
study is an update to the projected figures Dell’Oro published in April of last year.
Dell’Oro expects worldwide sales of cable modem and DSL equipment to grow from
$6.5 billion in 2000 to $18.9 billion in 2005, a 24.0% compound annual growth rate
(CAGR). The worldwide Broadband Infrastructure Market, which includes DSLAM
and CMTS platforms, is expected to grow from $3.7 billion in 2000 to $10.3 billion in
2005, a CAGR of 22.7% (see Exhibit 4). The total Digital Subscriber Line Access
Multiplexer (DSLAM) market opportunity alone is projected to grow to $7.8 billion in
2005 (20.0% CAGR), with ADSL/G.Lite accounting for 87.0% of the market by 2005
up from 78.8% in 2000. The rapid growth phase of the market is expected to con-tinue
in 2001 (32.3% CAGR) and 2002 (30.8% CAGR), suggesting that the next 12-
18 months will be critical for the broadband access industry. Compared to the pre-vious
study, the total market size for 2004 (the latest year from the April study) has
increased by 46.1% from $4.9 billion to $7.1 billion due to faster than expected de-ployments
internationally this year, specifically in Asia (Korea) and Europe (Ger-many).
The growth expectations for Korea are most likely aggressive given the
funding issues confronting major carriers such as Korea Telecom and Hanaru. Ac-cording
to the report, to date the majority of DSLAM equipment has been rolled out
by the ILECs, despite early CLEC deployments, and will remain as such in the near
term. Total DSLAM port shipments are projected to reach 67.9 million (38.2%
CAGR), with G.SHDSL, a symmetrical form of DSL, expected to be the primary
driver of growth beginning in 2002. Pricing will deteriorate at a slower rate on an
annual basis (-13.1%) than previously forecast (-17.2%). Furthermore, on an ab-solute
dollar basis, the 2004 ASP forecasted in the latest report increased by 16.6%
to $128 from $110. Companies we would highlight as well positioned to benefit
from this growth are Alcatel (34% of the DSLAM market in Q3:00), Lucent Tech-nologies
(19.2%), Cisco Systems (14%) and Nortel Networks (6.3%).
Exhibit 4
Worldwide Broadband Infrastructure Market ($US in millions)
Market Opportunity 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CAGR
CMTS $565 $916 $1,459 $1,922 $2,224 $2,479 34.4%
DSLAM 3,135 4,148 5,426 6,319 7,120 7,806 20.0%
Total Broadband Infrastructure $3,701 $5,063 $6,886 $8,242 $9,344 $10,285 22.7%
RAS (Dial) $3,522 $3,006 $2,590 $2,498 $2,040 $1,468 -16.0%
Ports (000’s)
CMTS 117 165 250 347 446 552 36.4%
DSLAM 13,474 21,500 32,636 43,500 55,588 67,857 38.2%
Total Broadband Infrastructure 13,591 21,665 32,886 43,847 56,033 68,409 38.2%
RAS (Dial) 21,400 21,400 24,650 28,348 26,930 21,544 0.1%
Manufacturing Port ASP ($)
CMTS $4,834 $5,559 $5,837 $5,545 $4,991 $4,492 -1.5%
DSLAM 233 193 166 145 128 115 -13.1%
Total Broadband Infrastructure $272 $234 $209 $188 $167 $150 -11.2%
RAS (Dial) $165 $140 $105 $88 $76 $68 -16.2%
Source: Dell’Oro Group
The Cable Modem Termination System (CMTS) market is projected to grow from
$565 million in 2000 to $2.5 billion in 2005, a CAGR of 34.4% versus the previous
estimate of 33.3%. Ports shipped are estimated to reach 552,000 in 2005 (36.4%
CAGR) and the ASP will decline at a 1.5% annual rate. According to the report,
several manufacturers have announced new products capable of integrating voice
and data traffic (DOCSIS 1.1 capable CMTS), which will generate additional incre-mental
revenue for the service providers and therefore justify significantly higher

Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 5 –
ASPs than current platforms. In a follow-up call with Dell’Oro, they indicated that
several vendors felt confident they could maintain this ASP per port given the in-creased
benefits to the service provider (i.e., the ability to prioritize packets of data
and voice). However, these products are not scheduled for volume shipments until
the second half of 2001, and therefore many service providers are holding off on
large equipment purchases until then. While Cisco Systems is the market leader
(with 64% share), particularly in DOCSIS-based CMTS, we believe next generation
vendors such as ADC Telecom (through BAS acquisition), RiverDelta and Cadant
will gain market share as operators begin to deploy these systems to support voice
over IP and tiered data service offerings. Finally, due to cannibalization by
Broadband, the market for Remote Access Servers (RAS), which support dial-up
Internet access, is expected to decline at a rate of 16.0% annually from $3.5 billion
in 2000 to $1.5 billion in 2005. The ASP is expected to decrease at a 16.2% annual
rate from $165 to $68 and port shipments will remain flat in 2001, then grow 15%
per year through 2003, and decline thereafter. Lucent Technologies is most ex-posed
to this market deterioration through its large installed base of MAX TNTs.
The worldwide broadband CPE market is expected to grow from $2.8 billion in 2000
to $8.7 billion in 2005, a CAGR of 25.6% (see Exhibit 5). In particular the opportu-nity
for DSL CPE, including both modems and routers, is anticipated to advance
from $1.4 billion in 2000 to $5.9 billion in 2005, a CAGR of 34.0%. Units shipped
are projected to rise 46.1% annually to 50.6 million in 2005 while pricing is expected
to decline at a slower annual rate (-8.3%) than previously forecast (-10.4%).
Dell’Oro predicts the majority of growth will come from routers, which offer more
features and higher service quality, such as the capability to packetize voice traffic
and connect multiple devices at home to the Internet. Specifically, DSL routers are
expected to grow from $438 million in 2000 to $4.6 billion in 2005 (60.0% CAGR),
with the highest growth (96.3%) coming in 2001.
Exhibit 5
Worldwide Broadband Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) Market ($US in millions)
Market Opportunity 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CAGR
Cable Modems $1,398.4 $1,725.9 $2,046.4 $2,261.3 $2,496.5 $2,727.4 14.3%
DSL Modems 1,374.8 2,282.6 3,024.9 3,963.9 4,944.0 5,936.9 34.0%
Total $2,773.2 $4,008.5 $5,071.3 $6,225.3 $7,440.5 $8,664.3 25.6%
Units (000’s)
Cable Modems 7,600.0 14,000.0 20,000.0 26,000.0 31,200.0 35,880.0 36.4%
DSL Modems 7,600.0 15,500.0 22,950.0 31,890.0 40,857.0 50,588.4 46.1%
Total 15,200.0 29,500.0 42,950.0 57,890.0 72,057.0 86,468.4 41.6%
Manufacturing Unit ASP ($)
Cable Modems $184 $123 $102 $87 $80 $76 -16.2%
DSL Modems $181 $147 $132 $124 $121 $117 -8.3%
Total $182 $136 $118 $108 $103 $100 -11.3%
Source: Dell’Oro Group
When we inquired about an inventory buildup, the research group acknowledged
that there may have been inventory balancing in Q4:00 that may possibly spill over
into Q1:01, but that it has consistently seen a correlation between CPE units
shipped and subscriber growth. Namely, CPE shipments precede subscriber net
additions by one quarter, with an additional 20% of excess units, which the re-search
group attributes to delivery in progress. Based on this trend, DSL worldwide
net additions would be approximately equal to net additions. However, given the
historical data for North America through Q3:00 (see Exhibit 6) we believe there is
an inventory surplus. Even when accounting for equipment replacement and the
fact that several service providers may be competing for the same subscriber, a
ratio of 2.7x times cumulative DSL CPE shipments to subscribers implies that a
backlog does exist and may take 6-9 months to correct. Furthermore, a 14.3% se-quential
net additions growth rate in Q3:00, down from 73.6% in the previous quar-ter,
suggests that annual growth rates in 2001 and 2002 of 66.0% and 33.0%,
respectively, may be aggressive. We note, however, that a slowdown in subscriber
growth does not reflect softening end-user demand, but rather provisioning andBreaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 6 –
therefore short-term profitability issues associated with DSL deployment. We be-lieve
Efficient Networks (27% share of DSL modems and 34% of routers) will re-main
a long-term beneficiary of DSL CPE deployments due to the depth and breath
of the company’s product portfolio and a strong global service provider customer
base.
Exhibit 6
DSL CPE Shipment Analysis)
DSL CPE Shipment Analysis 1Q98 2Q98 3Q98 4Q98 1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00
North American DSL Subscribers 42,350 89,035 187,250 341,865 547,200 816,500 1,284,100 1,818,394
Net Subscriber Additions 42,350 46,685 98,215 154,615 205,335 269,300 467,600 534,294
(sequential growth) 10.2% 110.4% 57.4% 32.8% 31.2% 73.6% 14.3%
(year over year growth) 384.9% 476.8% 376.1% 245.6%
North American DSL CPE Shipments 10,574 19,754 39,271 71,781 100,885 209,950 283,226 578,558 808,648 1,405,584 1,316,100
(sequential growth) 98.8% 82.8% 40.5% 108.1% 34.9% 104.3% 39.8% 73.8% -6.4%
(year over year growth) 962.8% 621.2% 706.0% 701.6% 569.5% 364.7%
Quarterly Shipments/Net Adds 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.5
Cumulative Shipments 10,574 30,328 69,598 141,379 242,264 452,214 735,440 1,313,998 2,122,646 3,528,230 4,844,330
Cumulative Shipments/Subs 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7
Source: CSFB Technology Group Estimates and Company Reports
In addition, the cable modem market is expected to grow from $1.4 billion to $2.7
billion over this time period, a 14.3% average annual increase. Modem shipments
are forecasted to reach 35.9 million units in 2005 from 7.6 million in 2000, repre-senting
a 36.4% CAGR. This data represents a slight increase to the previous re-port,
resulting from strong end-user demand and the introduction of voice and data
capable platforms despite a slight price deterioration. We would note that cable
modem vendors were impacted in Q4:00 from an industry-wide over supply that
resulted from cable operators compensating for shortages in the first half of 2000,
which were brought about by component constraints. Despite this short-term issue,
we believe that Motorola (35% market share in Q3:00) will remain a primary benefi-ciary
of cable modem deployments.
The two take-away points from this report are that pricing for broadband infrastruc-ture
will not decline as quickly as originally anticipated and that on an absolute ba-sis,
the market opportunity and shipment numbers have increased compared to the
previous report. Although the rollout of next-generation CMTS equipment and DSL
technologies, such as G.SHDSL, probably will not occur as soon as anticipated due
to execution issues, we believe that long-term fundamentals for the broadband ac-cess
space will remain strong, despite limited short and intermediate-term visibility
due to capital spending concerns and inventory build experienced in Q4:00.
Level 3 Claims Demand Continues to Outstrip Supply
At its Analyst Day on January 29th, Level 3 reiterated its capital spending guidance,
responded to claims of a potential bandwidth glut, and highlighted a sophisticated
modeling technique that will enable the company to maximize its return on invested
capital. Through the end of the year, Level 3 completed conduit installation on 98%
of its network for a total of 15,486 miles. The company anticipates capital spending
for 2001 and 2002 of $3.4 billion and between $2.0 and $2.5 billion, respectively.
The increase in anticipated capital outlays for 2001 (versus $3.0 billion previously)
reflects a push out of $400 million in spending from 2000. This spending shift was
the result of timing issues, in particular Level 3’s ability to secure a partner for its
North Asia cable project before year-end. In 2001, capital outlays will be focused
on pulling a second intercity fiber, which Corning will supply, and developing Ring 3
of Level 3’s pan-European network. Level 3 is currently deploying ultra broadband
cross-connects in its networks and we believe the primary beneficiary of these roll-outs
is Ciena (Core Director). In 2001, Level 3 will deploy all optical switching for
express routes only, indicating that the equipment cost is still too high to rollout
network-wide. The carrier anticipates more broadscale deployments to begin in
2002 and 2003 as it migrates to a mesh network architecture. While the ring de-signs
require that 50% of the capacity remain unused, mesh architectures require
only 33% of the capacity to be reserved for backup. As for its Metro buildout, the
company currently has over 14,700 intercity route miles and over 10,000 miles of Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 7 –
intercity fiber lit, with Corning’s MetroCor fiber being deployed. Due to the high fiber
content of its metro network, we don’t believe Level 3 is aggressively pursuing
metro DWDM at this juncture.
CEO Jim Crowe argued that bandwidth demand will continue to outstrip supply. He
alluded to studies that predicted demand increases of 20x to 200x and suggested
that analysts who forecast a glut, are not accounting for the cost of legacy equip-ment,
which requires more capital and time to install. To illustrate his point, he re-ferred
to an analysis that showed that although there are approximately 570 fiber
cables currently planned worldwide, assuming capital spending remains equal to
2000 levels on an absolute dollar basis, the average network would not be com-pleted
for another 38 years. This position gains further credence in light of today’s
capital spending concerns. Furthermore, Crowe claimed that much of the fiber that
is already in the ground, will be written off due to technological obsolescence as
legacy networks give way to next-generation equipment. However, while we do
believe some fiber in selected areas will be replaced, we think most of the fiber un-der
construction will be recovered. Finally, Level 3 also highlighted Project Max, a
sophisticated program used to model the relationship between supply and demand
to maximize net present value. For example, Crowe stated that price reductions
lead to greater demand for computing services than for long-distance services, and
in turn, routing services experience greater demand than computing services.
Through Project Max, Level 3 can determine the optimal price and demand levels
for fiber.
The trends Level 3 highlighted at its Analyst Day are positive for the communica-tions
equipment industry in terms of the long-term opportunities that are present.
Namely, the combination of bandwidth demand outpacing supply and rapidly de-creasing
unit costs and prices will accelerate the adoption and deployment of next
generation equipment, which can offer service providers incremental revenue and
cost savings, (e.g., mesh architecture and MLPS routing). Primary beneficiaries of
these trends include many of the leaders in the optical systems market including
Nortel Networks, Ciena Corporation, Corvis Corporation and ONI Systems.
N.B.: CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION may have, within the last three years, served as a manager or co-manager
of a public offering of securities for or makes a primary market in issues of any or all of the companies mentioned.
ADC Telecommunications (ADCT, $14.00, Buy)
Alcatel (ALA, $56.85, Buy)
BellSouth (BLS)
Cadant (private)
Ciena Corporation (CIEN)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, $35.50, Strong Buy)
Corning Inc. (GLW)
Corvis Corporation (CORV, $19.81, Strong Buy)
Efficient Networks (EFNT, $14.38, Buy)
Hanaru
Korea Telecom (KTC)
Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
Lucent Technologies (LU, $17.73, Buy)
Luminent (LMNE, $9.34, Buy)
Motorola (MOT)
Nortel Networks (NT, $36.01, Strong Buy)
ONI Systems (ONIS, $53.31, Strong Buy)
Qwest Communications (Q)
RiverDelta (private)
SBC (SBC)
Verizon (VZ)
Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 8 –
Appendix 1
Telecom Equipment- Wireline: Valuation Rating/ Price SHS Mcap P/ E Firm Value / Sales 3 Y r EPS
SYSTEMS COMPANIES Target 2/ 02/ 01 2000 YTD (MIL) (MIL) C00( E) C01( E) C02( E) C00( E) C01( E) C02( E) C00( E) C01( E) C02( E) C00( E) C01( E) C02( E) Growth
ALCATEL 1 B / $90 $56. 85 24.3% 1.6% 1,040 $59,124 $30,005 $37,025 $42, 461 $1.40 $1.73 $2.03 40. 6x 32. 9x 28.0x 2.1x 1.7x 1. 5x 15%
CISCO SYSTEMS 3 SB / $65 35. 50 (28. 6%) (7. 2%) 7,580 269,090 24, 213 32,095 43, 328 0.66 0.82 1.05 53. 8x 43. 3x 33.8x 10.8x 8.2x 6.1x 35%
ERICSSON 2 SB / $19 11.38 (31.9%) 1. 7% 7, 149 81,320 28, 438 34,057 41, 060 0.15 0.21 0.34 75. 8x 54. 2x 33.5x 2.9x 2.4x 2. 0x 25%
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES 2 B / $30 17. 73 (80. 9%) 31.3% 3,387 60,052 31, 513 27,225 30, 000 0.30 (0.35) 0.35 59. 1x NM 50.7x 2.1x 2.4x 2.2x 18%
MARCONI 1 B / 32 19. 63 (41. 7%) (4. 6%) 1,390 27,279 9,579 11,247 NA NA 0.19 0.25 NA 103. 3x 78.5x 3.1x 2.6x NA 20%
NORTEL NETWORKS SB / $80 36.01 (36.5%) 12.3% 3,225 116,132 30,279 38,200 44,500 0.74 0.95 1.15 48. 7x 37. 9 x 31. 3x 3. 8x 3. 0x 2. 6x 30%
OPTICAL/ IP SYSTEMS
AVICI SYSTEMS NR $34. 50 (20. 5%) 40.1% 45 $1,542 $16 $70 $178 ($ 1.45) ($ 0.78) $0.01 NM NM NM 82.7x 18.9x 7. 4x 30%
CACHEFLOW 4 B / $190 15. 19 (86. 9%) (11.0%) 33 497 112 345 NA (0.51) 0.42 NA NM 36. 2x NA 3. 4x 1. 1x NA 50%
CIENA NR 83.75 182. 6% 3. 1% 302 25,257 1,127 1,290 NA 0.45 0.70 1.15 186. 1x 119. 6x 73.1x 22.2x 19.4x NA 40%
CLARENT 4 B / $70 16. 88 (85. 5%) 49.2% 43 729 152 298 469 0. 04 0. 22 0. 71 421.9x 76. 7x 23.8x 3.1x 1.6x 1.0x 55%
CORVIS CORPORATION SB / $75 19. 81 (33. 9%) (16.8%) 328 6,494 69 320 550 (0.31) (0.23) 0.05 NM NM 384.5x 109.1x 23.5x 13. 7x 100%
ECI TELECOM NR 13.94 (55.8%) (0.3%) 94 1,311 1,291 1,519 NA 0.65 0.18 NA 21. 4x 77. 4x NA 0.9x 0.8x NA 10%
EXTREME NETWORKS NR 38. 56 (6.3%) (1.4%) 119 4,579 445 786 NA 0.32 0.75 1.22 120. 5x 51. 7x 31.6x 9.9x 5.6x NA 40%
FOUNDRY NETWORKS NR 20. 25 (90. 1%) 35. 0% 127 2, 562 377 485 632 0. 74 0. 73 1. 00 27 .4x 27. 7x 20. 3x 6. 1x 4. 8x 3 .7x 35%
JUNIPER NETWORKS 3 SB / $250 100. 69 122.5% (20.1%) 350 35,210 640 1,296 1 ,851 0.53 1.05 1.25 190.0x 95. 9x 80.6x 55.1x 27.2x 19. 0x 75%
ONI SYSTEMS SB / $80 53. 31 58.2% 34.8% 119 6,332 50 180 330 (0.69) (0.17) 0.20 NM NM 271.5x 114.9x 31.9x 17. 4x 100%
SONUS NETWORKS NR 39. 25 9. 8% 55.4% 149 5,844 52 158 342 (0.17) 0.01 0.19 NM NM 212.2x 110.1x 36.0x 16. 7x 50%
SYCAMORE NETWORKS B / $85 29. 25 (63. 7%) (21.5%) 284 8,301 409 800 1, 391 0. 23 0. 33 0. 48 129.1x 87. 4x 61.2x 17.6x 9.0x 5.2x 50%
TELLABS INC SB / $70 65. 00 (12. 0%) 15.0% 417 27,086 3,329 4,408 5 ,378 1.67 2.17 2.55 38. 9x 30. 0x 25.5x 7.8x 5.9x 4.8x 25%
OPTICAL SUBSYSTEMS/COMPONENTS
ALCATEL OPTRONICS NR $51. 50 (41. 6%) 22.6% 95 $4,887 $406 NA NA 0.19 NA NA 274. 3x NA NA 12.0x NA NA
AVANEX NR 53. 50 65.4% (10.2%) 68 3,654 111 249 NA 0.00 0.47 NA NM 113.8x NA 31.2x 13.9x NA 50%
BOOKHAM TECHNOLOGIES NR 14. 06 (12. 5%) 7. 1% 123 1, 724 38 111 NA (0. 29) (0. 18) 0. 36 NM NM 39. 1x 37. 5x 12. 8x NA 40%
CORNING NR 51. 08 22.9% (3. 3%) 944 48,220 7,127 9,220 11, 427 1.23 1.41 1.72 41. 5x 36. 2x 29.8x 7.1x 5.5x 4. 4x 30%
EXFO ELECTRO- OPTICAL ENGINEERING NR 42.88 0.5% 64.1% 46 1,960 NA NA NA 0.34 0.44 0.56 126. 1x 97. 4x 76.6x NA NA NA NA
FINISAR NR 32. 81 (3.2%) 13.1% 169 5,553 189 320 NA 0.13 0.27 NA 254. 4x 123. 8x NA 28.0x 16.5x NA 40%
JDS UNIPHASE B / $100 50. 00 (48. 3%) 19.9% 1,011 50,550 2,838 4,748 6 ,647 0.63 0.98 1.30 79. 7x 50. 9x 38.5x 17.4x 10.4x 7.4x 50%
LUMINENT B/ $17 9.34 (49.8%) 55.3% 153 1,430 124 210 280 0. 05 0. 13 0. 18 178.1x 71. 9x 50.8x 11.6x 6.9x 5.2x 60%
NEW FOCUS B/$ 65 50. 00 73.8% 43.9% 64 3,206 80 240 346 (0.23) 0.20 0.45 NM 250. 0x 112.3x 33.6x 11.3x 7.8x 75%
NEWPORT CORPORATION R 75. 56 415.5% (3. 9%) 34 2,601 253 NA NA 0. 86 NA NA 87.9x NA NA 16.1x NA NA 50%
OPTICAL COMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS NR 16.75 2.3% 48.9% 118 1,977 125 180 NA 0.30 0.35 NA 55. 8 x 47. 3 x NA 41. 4x 10. 2x NA 50%
OPLINK NR 17.50 0.7% (3.1%) 153 2,678 90 200 NA (0.09) 0.10 0.06 NM 171. 6 x 291. 7x 27. 1x 12. 2x NA 50%
SDL B 185.63 36.0% 25.3% 91 16,896 505 1,000 1 ,450 1.53 2.55 3.05 121. 3x 72. 8 x 60. 9x 32. 6x 16. 5x 11. 4x 50%
BROADBAND ACCES S INFRASTRUCTURE
ACCELERATED NETWORKS B $2. 63 (81. 5%) (5. 6%) 49 $128 $36 $18 $30 ($ 0. 70) ($ 1. 07) ($ 1. 12) NM NM NM 3. 5x 6. 9x 4. 2x NM
ADC TELECOMMUNICATIONS B 14. 00 (0. 1%) (22. 8%) 782 10, 942 3,494 3,895 4 ,345 0.48 0.63 0.72 29. 3x 22. 3x 19.4x 2.8x 2.5x 2.2x 30%
ADTRAN CORPORATION NR 27.25 (58.7%) 28.2% 40 1,082 463 520 NA 1.65 1.53 2.13 16. 5x 17. 8x 12.8x 2.3x 2.0x NA 20%
ADVANCED FIBRE COMMUNICATIONS NR 24.31 (59.6%) 34.6% 85 2,056 417 489 612 0. 58 0. 68 0. 83 41. 9x 35. 8x 29.2x 2.8x 2.4x 1. 9x 20%
Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 9 –
Appendix 2
Lucent, Nortel and Ericsson Announced Equipment Orders, 1998- Present (U.S. Dollars In Millions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Nortel Lucent Ericsson
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: Company reports
ADVANCED SWITCHING COMMUNICATIO N NR 7.63 (67.5%) 56.4% 41 316 37 70 110 (0.27) (0.08) 0.15 NM NM 50.8x 5.6x 3.0x 1.9x NA
AWARE NR 15.31 (51.2%) (13.7%) 23 359 31 41 63 0.52 0.38 0.71 29. 4x 39. 9x 21.6x 9.8x 7.4x 4. 8x 35%
CARRIER ACCESS CORPORATION B 8. 13 (86. 6%) (9 .7%) 25 200 148 145 205 0. 75 0. 25 0. 55 10 .8x 32. 7x 14. 7x 1. 0x 1. 0x 0. 7x 20%
COPPER MOUNTAIN NR 5. 94 (87. 9%) 0. 5% 58 347 204 480 NA 0. 72 0. 10 0. 28 8 .2x 57. 5x 21. 2x 0. 9x 0. 4x NA 20%
COSINE COMMUNICATIONS NR 14. 50 (39. 7%) 4 .5% 93 1,344 42 193 NA (1.00) (0.77) (0.39) NM NM NM 25.1x 5.4x NA NA
EFFICIENT NETWORKS B 8.22 (79.0%) 0. 9% 59 484 393 473 746 (0.21) (0.51) 0.59 NM NM 13.9x 1.1x 1.0x 0.6x 50%
NETOPIA NR 9. 38 (92. 1%) 117.4% 18 165 150 225 250 0. 17 0. 21 NA 55. 1x 44. 6x NA 0. 7x 0. 5x 0. 4x 50%
NEXT LEVEL COMMUNICATIONS B 12. 06 (84. 8%) 6 .0% 84 1, 016 150 165 300 (0. 74) (0. 90) (0. 35) NM NM NM 6. 7x 6. 1x 3. 3x 40%
PARADYNE NR 2.78 (93.3%) 53.4% 32 88 254 242 NA 0.08 0.15 0.51 34. 8x 18. 2x 5.5x 0.2x 0.3x NA 20%
REDBACK NETWORKS NR 40. 25 (53. 8%) (1. 8%) 163 6, 548 278 730 1 ,270 0.04 0.50 0.95 NM 80. 7x 42.4x 23.8x 9.1x 5. 2x 50%
TURNSTONE NR 6.06 (74.4%) (18.5%) 58 354 194 92 NA 0. 34 (0.04) (0.02) 17. 8x NM NM 0. 5x 1. 0x NA 40%
TUT SYSTEMS NR 6. 19 (84. 6%) (25.0%) 17 107 64 115 NA (0.43) (1.36) NA NM NM NA 0.1x 0.0x NA 35%
WESTELL TECHNOLOGIES NR 4. 94 (71. 5%) 61.2% 61 300 484 337 NA (0.09) (0.29) 0.67 NM NM 7.4x 0.7x 0.9x NA 20%
CABLE SYSTEMS/EQUIPMENT
ANTEC NR $12. 50 (78. 3%) 58.1% 45 $ 559 $ 1,070 $1,635 $1 ,895 $0.67 $0.77 1.26 18. 8x 16. 2x 9.9x 0.7x 0.5x 0. 4x 20%
COM21 H 5. 38 (79. 1%) 14.7% 25 132 198 239 290 (1.51) (0.50) 0.30 NM NM 18.1x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x 25%
HARMONIC INC. NR 10. 25 (94. 0%) 80.2% 51 522 263 343 472 0. 03 (0.43) 0.26 341. 7x NM 39.1x 1.6x 1.2x 0. 9x 25%
SCIENTIFIC- ATLANTA B / $80 55. 00 16.6% 68.9% 167 9,196 2,222 3,150 3 ,449 1.38 1.85 1.98 39. 9x 29. 7x 27.7x 3.9x 2.7x 2.5x 30%
TERAYON COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS NR 5. 63 (87. 1%) 38. 5% 66 373 340 445 1 ,153 (0.26) (1.35) (1.22) NM NM NM 0.9x 0.7x 0. 3x 50%
TELECOM EQUIPMENT GROUP MEDIANS (45. 0%) 9. 7% NM $ 2,309 $263 $345 $689 NA NA NA 54. 5x 50. 9x 33.5x 6.1x 4.8x 3. 5x 40%
TELECOM EQUIPMENT GROUP WEIGHTED AVERAGE (37. 0%) 3. 5% NM 17, 050 3, 489 4, 359 7 ,289 NA NA NA 69. 7x 51. 4x 44.3x 18.1x 7.4x 5. 0x 40%
S&P INDUSTRIALS SPII 1, 574. 42 (17. 1%) 3. 0% NM NM NM NM NM 57. 48 60. 43 NA 27. 4x 26 .1x NA NM NM NM NM
S& P 500 SPX 1,349. 40 (10. 1%) 2.2% NM NM NM NM NM 57.00 59.64 65.69 23. 7x 22. 6x NM NM NM NM
SB Strong Buy. B Buy. H Hold. S Sell. R Restricted. NA Not Available. NM Not Meaningful. NR Not Rated. Not rated companies include First Call and IBES estimates.
1 Jointly covered by James P. Parmelee and Ian Burgess. 3 Jointly covered by James P. Parmelee and Lissa Bogaty.
2 Jointly covered by James P. Parmelee and Marc A. Cabi. 4 Jointly covered by James P. Parmelee and Amit Chopra.
Source: Company Reports, First Call, and CSFB Technology Group Estimates
Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
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Appendix 3
Nortel Announced Equipment Orders, January 2001 - Present (U.S. Dollars In Millions)
Month Date Technology Customer Country Est. Value ($M)
January 1/9/01 Shasta 5000 Broadband Service Node Comm. Auth. of Thailand Thailand NA
1/10/01 OPTera Long Haul 1600, Connect DX switch 186k, a sub. of Lattice Group UK $100
1/10/01 Passport 8600 Qingdao/Hebei Telecom China NA
1/19/01 OPTera Connect DX switch Henan Telecom China NA
February
March
Q1 # Contracts 4 Q1 Total Value $100
Wireline $100
Wireless $0
Source: Company reports
Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 11 –
Appendix 4
Lucent Announced Equipment Orders, January 2001 - Present (U.S. Dollars In Millions)
Month Date Technology Customer Country Est. Value ($M)
January 1/10/01 WaveStar OLS 400G Liaoning Telecom China $15
1/17/01 WaveStar OLS 1.6T Time Warner Telecom USA 100
1/18/01 WaveStar TDM 2.5G Verizon Communicaions USA NA
1/29/01 Kenan Software Telstra Corporation Limited Australia NA
February
March
Q1 # Contracts 4 Q1 Total Value $115
Wireline $115
Wireless $0
Source: Company reports
Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 12 –
Appendix 5
Cisco Systems Announced Equipment Orders, January 2001 - Present (U.S. Dollars In Millions)
Month Date Technology Customer CountryEst. Value ($M)
January 1/10/01 Routers, switches and access points StrategiNet USA $25
1/12/01 Router Technology Orbit Canada Canada NA
February
March
Q1 # Contracts 2 Q1 Total Value $25
Wireline $25
Wireless $0
Source: Company Reports

Breaking the Bottleneck: A Wireline Weekly
– 13 –
Appendix 6
Events Calendar
Feb 2001
Feb6-8
Feb 7
Feb 11-14
Feb 11-15
Feb 12-15
Feb 12-15
Feb 12-13
Feb 12-13
Feb 15
Feb 20-23
All-Optical Networks 2001 Conference (Dallas, TX)
Verizon Investment Community Meeting (New York)
OPTIX 2001 (Pasadena, CA)
Fourth Annual Next Generation Internet Conference and Exhibition (San Diego, CA)
VoiceCon 2001 (Washington, DC)
Carrier IP World Forum 2001 (Miami, FL)
Williams 2001 Analyst and Investor Conference (New York City)
Mobile Commerce Conference (San Jose, CA)
ONI Systems Investor/Analyst Day (San Francisco, CA)
3GSM Conference (Canes, France)
Feb 20-23
Feb 21
Feb 28-Mar 2
Internet World Wireless 2001 (New York City)
Lucent Annual Shareowners Mtg (Orlando, FL)
CSFB 3G Conference (Tokyo)
Mar 2001
Mar 5-7
Mar 7-8
Mar 12-16
Mar 17-19
Mar 19-21
CSFB Global Telecom CEO Conference (New York City)
Scientific-Atlanta Analyst Meeting
Internet World 2001 ( Los Angeles, CA)
OSA Executive Forum (Anaheim, CA)
OFC (Anaheim, CA)
April 2001
April 23-26 WDMcon 2001 (Reston, VA)
May 2001
May 3-4
May 6-11
May 14-17
CSFB Broadband Conference (New York City)
NetWorld+Interop 2001- LAS VEGAS ( Nevada)
2nd Annual Communications Technology Conference (Phoenix, AZ)
June 2001
Jun 5-7
Jun 6
Supercomm 2001(Atlanta, GA)
Charter Communications Annual Investor Meeting
July 2001
Jul 5-7 NFOEC (Baltimore, MD)



Zugegeben das liest sich bestimmt nicht so gut, aber wenn jemand Interesse hat dem kann ich auch die Adresse mailen, nur ich möchte nicht das damit irgendwelche Spinner Unfug treiben. Denn dieser Service ist umsonst!
Dann braucht man nur Acrobat Reader, somit kann man auch alles richrig lesen, .pdf-Datei.
gruß
proxi