Egal, wer gewinnt, es geht aufwärts nach untenstehendem Bericht v.Samstag:
Wall Street And the White House: Honeymoon Ahead?
By Jan Paschal
NEW YORK (Reuters) - If your stomach's in a knot over what effect Tuesday's presidential election will have on your stock portfolio, relax.
November through April are traditionally the best six months to invest in stocks, said Yale Hirsch, the market historian who's also editor of the ``Stock Trader's Almanac.''
So this month, he said, could start a honeymoon for Wall Street and the White House, no matter who wins.
That's probably not what some people want to hear. After all, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas and Vice President Al Gore, the Republican and the Democratic candidates, respectively, have spent millions of dollars and countless hours crisscrossing the country to persuade people that it DOES matter who wins.
``It probably doesn't matter which one wins as far as the economy goes,'' Hirsch told Reuters in an interview.
``A tax cut, done properly, increases the economy,'' Hirsch said. ``Paying off the debt lowers interest rates and that helps the economy. It's a 'win-win' situation.''
A honeymoon for the new president and the stock market is inevitable, in his opinion, because ``this is America. We give everybody a chance.''
Not so fast, said Larry Wachtel, senior vice president and market analyst at Prudential Securities.
``A honeymoon? I say no,'' Wachtel said, sounding like a father who's about to read his spendthrift child the riot act. ''I don't believe so. It depends on the fundamentals. Sure, there'll be a honeymoon, if the fundamentals permit it.
``The election is interesting,'' Wachtel added. ``But show me the money. Show me the earnings.''
Earnings, in a word, haven't been good.
``From the second to the third to the fourth quarters, we're seeing diminishing earnings,'' Wachtel said. ``That's the most troubling factor.''
Wachtel pointed out that Wall Street's ideal scenario is an election that divides the spoils, with one party capturing the White House and the other party in control of Congress.
This election, said Robert Stovall, market strategist at Prudential, ``is the most important in 20 years, and it's too close to call.''
The Dow Jones industrial average, which Stovall said has ``a better record than most'' as an election forecaster, predicts victory for the incumbent party -- if the index rises from the end of July through the end of October. But the Dow's October swan dive and its erratic rebound since then ``may be bad news for Al Gore,'' Stovall told investors in a report.
Sitting vice presidents rarely get elected, says the ``Stock Trader's Almanac.''
§ IS THE BEAR DEAD?
§ The stock market bottomed in October, Hirsch believes.
§ ``We saw a rash of bad financial statements,'' Hirsch said.
That's one of the classic signs of a bottom -- an indicator that usually lags a market top by about six months.
The Dow average (.DJI) topped out in January and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) in March this year.
``We've just experienced one of the worst bear markets in Nasdaq, off 40 percent, and we've also had a bear market in the Dow since its January high,'' he said.
Unless the United States gets engulfed in war in the Middle East, he sees the stage set for the stock market to recover.
On Oct. 18, the Dow Jones industrial average closed below 10,000 for the first time since mid-March, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell to 3,026, an intraday low for the year.
``Once again, October has been the bear killer,'' Hirsch said. ``Even though it has a dark Halloween image, that's the time to buy stocks.''
Prudential's Wachtel is more cautious.
``I concede there was a bear market in technology,'' he says. ''We've had the September-October shakeout. Certain areas are slowing down, like fiber-optics, like cell phones, like PCs.''
INTEREST RATES WILL FALL
Hirsch believes ``interest rates will be coming down. Mr. Greenspan will see to that'' because the economy is slowing.
An interest-rate cut could come as soon as the Nov. 15 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Hirsch said.
The fed funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, is 6.50 percent, after six rate increases from June 1999 through May this year.
Wachtel of Prudential sees the possibility of a rate cut down the road.
``With the economy cooling, there's no longer a threat of rates rising. We are cooling on the manufacturing side, but not on the consumer side. We see rising energy prices.
``If the economy continues to cool, sometime in early 2001, the Fed will begin to cut again,'' Wachtel predicted.
BEST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
``Since 1950, an excellent strategy has been to invest in the market between Nov. 1 and April 30 each year and then switch into fixed-income securities for the other six months,'' Hirsch.
A compounding investment of $10,000 in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index from November through April, starting Nov. 1, 1950, and ending April 30, 2000, yielded a whopping $363,353 gain over almost 50 years, Hirsch told Reuters. From May through October over that same period, the investment returned a ``puny'' $11,574 gain.
But Prudential's Wachtel doesn't buy it.
``We are entering a favorable seasonal period -- November, December, January -- because there are the flows of funds at the end of the year,'' he said.
No one should think there's a guarantee of good returns from stock investments made this month through January or through April, for that matter, Wachtel said.
``Just because there is that bias, there's nothing automatic about the stock market,'' Wachtel warned. ``Just because Yale Hirsch says so in his book, I can't count on it.''
A SHOPPING LIST
Technology, biotechs and energy stocks are the best place to be now, Hirsch said. The pounding that technology stocks have taken this fall presents an ideal buying opportunity.
``Intel (NasdaqNM:INTC - news), the leader, has been beaten down,'' he said. ``When else are you going to have such a great opportunity to buy something that's been beaten down?''
Fuel-cell and alternative energy plays, like Ballard Power Systems (NasdaqNM:BLDP - news), make sense in an era of high oil prices and stricter emission standards, Hirsch said.
Stovall of Prudential sees defense, energy and aerospace stocks doing well if Bush wins on Tuesday. His laissez-faire approach to regulation probably would help Microsoft, too. In contrast, Gore as president isn't likely to let Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) off the hook, after the Justice Department's case.
Environmental and waste-management stocks, education and housing shares -- think Sallie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac -- would thrive under a Gore administration, Stovall said.
Prudential's Wachtel said ``we're still recommending selective stocks. We're still a buyer of techs that sell into telecoms, like Vitesse Semiconductor (NasdaqNM:VTSS - news) and PMCS -- PMC-Sierra (NasdaqNM:PMCS - news), as opposed to Intel and other techs that sell into PCs, which we see as less desirable.
``Some of the techs that sell into cell phones, we like,'' he added, naming Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN - news) as one.
In other sectors, ``we think Home Depot (NYSE:HD - news) is oversold,'' Wachtel said. ``We're a buyer of Target (NYSE:TGT - news). We like the oil services group, Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE:BHI - news), media stocks Viacom (NYSE:VIA - news) and Disney (NYSE:DIS - news), also Boeing (NYSE:BA - news) and GE (NYSE:GE - news).''
Hirsch sees the Dow average ``somewhere above 11,000'' and the S&P 500 (.SPX) above its Dec. 31, 1999, close of 1,469.25 at year end. But the Nasdaq composite ``could fall short'' of its 1999 close of 4,069.31, he added.
Wachtel of Prudential believes the Dow could finish 2000 ''somewhere in the 11,500 to 12,000 range'' and the Nasdaq composite could revisit ``3,800 to 4,000'' by the close of business on Dec. 29, the last trading day of the year.
Wall Street And the White House: Honeymoon Ahead?
By Jan Paschal
NEW YORK (Reuters) - If your stomach's in a knot over what effect Tuesday's presidential election will have on your stock portfolio, relax.
November through April are traditionally the best six months to invest in stocks, said Yale Hirsch, the market historian who's also editor of the ``Stock Trader's Almanac.''
So this month, he said, could start a honeymoon for Wall Street and the White House, no matter who wins.
That's probably not what some people want to hear. After all, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas and Vice President Al Gore, the Republican and the Democratic candidates, respectively, have spent millions of dollars and countless hours crisscrossing the country to persuade people that it DOES matter who wins.
``It probably doesn't matter which one wins as far as the economy goes,'' Hirsch told Reuters in an interview.
``A tax cut, done properly, increases the economy,'' Hirsch said. ``Paying off the debt lowers interest rates and that helps the economy. It's a 'win-win' situation.''
A honeymoon for the new president and the stock market is inevitable, in his opinion, because ``this is America. We give everybody a chance.''
Not so fast, said Larry Wachtel, senior vice president and market analyst at Prudential Securities.
``A honeymoon? I say no,'' Wachtel said, sounding like a father who's about to read his spendthrift child the riot act. ''I don't believe so. It depends on the fundamentals. Sure, there'll be a honeymoon, if the fundamentals permit it.
``The election is interesting,'' Wachtel added. ``But show me the money. Show me the earnings.''
Earnings, in a word, haven't been good.
``From the second to the third to the fourth quarters, we're seeing diminishing earnings,'' Wachtel said. ``That's the most troubling factor.''
Wachtel pointed out that Wall Street's ideal scenario is an election that divides the spoils, with one party capturing the White House and the other party in control of Congress.
This election, said Robert Stovall, market strategist at Prudential, ``is the most important in 20 years, and it's too close to call.''
The Dow Jones industrial average, which Stovall said has ``a better record than most'' as an election forecaster, predicts victory for the incumbent party -- if the index rises from the end of July through the end of October. But the Dow's October swan dive and its erratic rebound since then ``may be bad news for Al Gore,'' Stovall told investors in a report.
Sitting vice presidents rarely get elected, says the ``Stock Trader's Almanac.''
§ IS THE BEAR DEAD?
§ The stock market bottomed in October, Hirsch believes.
§ ``We saw a rash of bad financial statements,'' Hirsch said.
That's one of the classic signs of a bottom -- an indicator that usually lags a market top by about six months.
The Dow average (.DJI) topped out in January and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) in March this year.
``We've just experienced one of the worst bear markets in Nasdaq, off 40 percent, and we've also had a bear market in the Dow since its January high,'' he said.
Unless the United States gets engulfed in war in the Middle East, he sees the stage set for the stock market to recover.
On Oct. 18, the Dow Jones industrial average closed below 10,000 for the first time since mid-March, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell to 3,026, an intraday low for the year.
``Once again, October has been the bear killer,'' Hirsch said. ``Even though it has a dark Halloween image, that's the time to buy stocks.''
Prudential's Wachtel is more cautious.
``I concede there was a bear market in technology,'' he says. ''We've had the September-October shakeout. Certain areas are slowing down, like fiber-optics, like cell phones, like PCs.''
INTEREST RATES WILL FALL
Hirsch believes ``interest rates will be coming down. Mr. Greenspan will see to that'' because the economy is slowing.
An interest-rate cut could come as soon as the Nov. 15 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Hirsch said.
The fed funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, is 6.50 percent, after six rate increases from June 1999 through May this year.
Wachtel of Prudential sees the possibility of a rate cut down the road.
``With the economy cooling, there's no longer a threat of rates rising. We are cooling on the manufacturing side, but not on the consumer side. We see rising energy prices.
``If the economy continues to cool, sometime in early 2001, the Fed will begin to cut again,'' Wachtel predicted.
BEST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
``Since 1950, an excellent strategy has been to invest in the market between Nov. 1 and April 30 each year and then switch into fixed-income securities for the other six months,'' Hirsch.
A compounding investment of $10,000 in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index from November through April, starting Nov. 1, 1950, and ending April 30, 2000, yielded a whopping $363,353 gain over almost 50 years, Hirsch told Reuters. From May through October over that same period, the investment returned a ``puny'' $11,574 gain.
But Prudential's Wachtel doesn't buy it.
``We are entering a favorable seasonal period -- November, December, January -- because there are the flows of funds at the end of the year,'' he said.
No one should think there's a guarantee of good returns from stock investments made this month through January or through April, for that matter, Wachtel said.
``Just because there is that bias, there's nothing automatic about the stock market,'' Wachtel warned. ``Just because Yale Hirsch says so in his book, I can't count on it.''
A SHOPPING LIST
Technology, biotechs and energy stocks are the best place to be now, Hirsch said. The pounding that technology stocks have taken this fall presents an ideal buying opportunity.
``Intel (NasdaqNM:INTC - news), the leader, has been beaten down,'' he said. ``When else are you going to have such a great opportunity to buy something that's been beaten down?''
Fuel-cell and alternative energy plays, like Ballard Power Systems (NasdaqNM:BLDP - news), make sense in an era of high oil prices and stricter emission standards, Hirsch said.
Stovall of Prudential sees defense, energy and aerospace stocks doing well if Bush wins on Tuesday. His laissez-faire approach to regulation probably would help Microsoft, too. In contrast, Gore as president isn't likely to let Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) off the hook, after the Justice Department's case.
Environmental and waste-management stocks, education and housing shares -- think Sallie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac -- would thrive under a Gore administration, Stovall said.
Prudential's Wachtel said ``we're still recommending selective stocks. We're still a buyer of techs that sell into telecoms, like Vitesse Semiconductor (NasdaqNM:VTSS - news) and PMCS -- PMC-Sierra (NasdaqNM:PMCS - news), as opposed to Intel and other techs that sell into PCs, which we see as less desirable.
``Some of the techs that sell into cell phones, we like,'' he added, naming Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN - news) as one.
In other sectors, ``we think Home Depot (NYSE:HD - news) is oversold,'' Wachtel said. ``We're a buyer of Target (NYSE:TGT - news). We like the oil services group, Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE:BHI - news), media stocks Viacom (NYSE:VIA - news) and Disney (NYSE:DIS - news), also Boeing (NYSE:BA - news) and GE (NYSE:GE - news).''
Hirsch sees the Dow average ``somewhere above 11,000'' and the S&P 500 (.SPX) above its Dec. 31, 1999, close of 1,469.25 at year end. But the Nasdaq composite ``could fall short'' of its 1999 close of 4,069.31, he added.
Wachtel of Prudential believes the Dow could finish 2000 ''somewhere in the 11,500 to 12,000 range'' and the Nasdaq composite could revisit ``3,800 to 4,000'' by the close of business on Dec. 29, the last trading day of the year.
