(Fiskale) Verschwendungssucht und Hurrikane haben ihren Preis. Die US-Inflation ist nahe Rekordwerten: Der Consumer Price Index (CPI) wird diese Woche mit +0,8 % erwartet - der größte monatliche Anstieg, seit Saddam Hussein 1990 in Kuwait einmarschierte. Einige Ökonomen erwarten gar einen Sprung um +1,5 %. Das wäre ein 32-Jahres-Hoch.
Über das ganze Jahr wird ein Preisanstieg um 4 % erwartet - der höchste Wert seit zehn Jahren. Kein Wunder, dass die Fed das Inflationsgespenst an die Wand malt.
Einige Ökonomen beruhigen sich damit, das die Kern-Inflationsrate (ohne Energie) nur ein Plus von 0,2 % aufweisen wird - nach 4 x 0,1 % in den letzten vier Monaten. Energie muss jedoch von den US-Konsumenten gekauft werden, an der Zapfsäule wie für die Heizung. Deshalb ist es Unsinn, Energie herauszurechnen.
Ein Kommentator bringt das Dilemma auf den Punkt: "Bis auf Inflation gibt es keine Inflation."
US-Aktien dürften in diesem Umfeld mittelfristig nachgeben. Wie der Dollar reagiert, ist die große Frage. Bislang hat ihn die Aussicht auf steigende Zinsen gegenüber dem Euro gestärkt. Wenn jedoch erst mal ins Bewusstsein dringt, dass dieser Zinsanstieg durch die Inflation aufgefressen wird (der Realzins also unverändert bleibt), werden sich ausländische Anleger zweimal überlegen, ob sie das mit der hohen Inflation verbundene Abwertungsrisiko des Dollar auf Dauer zu tragen bereit sind.
------------------
Katrina's blowback: inflation
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:06 PM ET Oct. 7, 2005
§
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Hurricane Katrina destroyed lives, homes, jobs and a major city. It also squeezed oil and gas production, spreading the pain across the nation.
Since the storm hit on Aug. 29, swamping New Orleans and sending gasoline and natural-gas prices to record levels, Federal Reserve officials have rushed to the breach, vowing to keep raising interest rates as high as necessary to keep inflation at bay.
Along with corporate-earnings announcements, the Fed will occupy the attention of the markets in the coming week. Four Fed policymakers, including Chairman Alan Greenspan, will speak on inflation and other economic topics during the week. Greenspan speaks Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
The minutes of the Sept. 20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be released on Tuesday, providing some potentially juicy gossip about why Gov. Mark Olson dissented from the last rate hike and whether there are any doves left on the FOMC.
Consumer-price index
Inflation will be front and center in the economic data. The consumer-price index for September will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
The CPI is expected to rise 0.8%, which would be the largest monthly gain since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990. Some economists are forecasting a jump as high as 1.5%, which would be a 32-year high and the second biggest increase ever.
The year-over-year increase in consumer prices will likely accelerate to 4%, a level not seen in more than a decade. No wonder the Fed is yelling about inflation.
However, economists expect little change in the core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs. The average forecast is for a 0.2% increase, after four straight 0.1% increases. The year-over-year increase in the core could actually fall by a tenth to 2%.
"Fortunately, aside from energy, pricing power remains fairly dormant elsewhere in the economy," said Leslie Preston, an economist for CIBC World Markets.
Any talk about the core CPI sets some people's teeth on edge. They argue that consumers and businesses must buy energy, so why exclude it when you talk about inflation?
As blogger and market strategist Barry Ritholtz says, "Except for inflation, there's no inflation."
Central bankers have targeted stable core inflation because they feel prices of commodities such as food and energy are determined not by monetary policy, but by global supply and demand that's heavily influenced by outside factors such as weather.
The Fed can't drill more oil or end a drought.
Inflation isn't a big one-time increase in gasoline prices, but a sustained increase in all prices. Individual price increases can only become inflationary if they are accommodated by consumers, businesses or the Fed.
Companies will try to pass along the costs of expensive energy to their customers. Workers will try to get their bosses to pay. But neither bosses nor workers have much pricing power right now.
"There is going to be near-term inflation," said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch. "Is it going to be sustained? I doubt it."
Rosenberg argues that global deflationary forces are still very powerful. Workers, in particular, have very little ability to get higher wages, which has traditionally been the main transmission method for inflation.
Wages, far from fueling inflation, are now holding it back. Average wages are up 2.6% in the past year, a full percentage point below the inflation rate.
With consumers squeezed on the income side, they are demanding -- and getting -- bargains on the consumption side, where they hold all the cards in every market that isn't supply-constrained by monopolies or bottlenecks.
The hefty increases in gasoline, natural gas and heating-oil prices pose a "serious threat to household budgets," CIBC's Preston said. Money spent on energy can't be spent elsewhere, which means retailers will have to keep the "sale" signs prominently displayed.
Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Tilton figures energy will sap about 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points from consumer spending this fall and winter, cutting the consumer's contribution to growth nearly in half.
A particularly cold winter could siphon even more disposable income away from consumers, Tilton wrote in his weekly report to clients. "Such a shock would put the economy at high risk of recession," he said.
Both the weather service and the Energy Department will give their winter forecasts on Wednesday.
Retail sales
Consumer spending stumbled ahead of the hurricanes, dropping 0.5% in August after big gains in June and July that were boosted by deals from the automakers.
In September, auto sales fell back, but not as much as feared. Chain-store sales also slipped early in the month, but came back strong later in the month.
The Commerce Department will report on September's retail sales on Friday morning. Forecasts look for a 0.4% gain after August's 2.1% decline. Excluding auto sales, retail sales likely rose 0.8%, a bit slower than the 1% gain in August.
Much of the gain in retail sales, of course, will be at gasoline stations, which benefited from the 60-cent increase in prices.
Later on Friday, the University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index for October will be reported. Economists expect an improvement to 80.7 from September's 76.9. Economists will take an extra long look at consumers' inflation expectations, which jumped in September after the hurricanes, putting the Fed on edge.
Other data
The trade deficit likely widened again in August to about $59.4 billion from $57.4 billion in July. The data will be released Thursday.
Industrial production was hammered by the hurricanes, likely falling 0.4% with capacity utilization falling to 79.4% from 79.8%. Oil and gas production is slowly coming back, but could take months to return to prestorm levels. The data will be released Friday.
Import prices likely climbed by another 0.9% in September after rising 1.3% in August, with petroleum the main culprit. Excluding petroleum, there's little price pressure from imports. The data will be released Thursday.
Über das ganze Jahr wird ein Preisanstieg um 4 % erwartet - der höchste Wert seit zehn Jahren. Kein Wunder, dass die Fed das Inflationsgespenst an die Wand malt.
Einige Ökonomen beruhigen sich damit, das die Kern-Inflationsrate (ohne Energie) nur ein Plus von 0,2 % aufweisen wird - nach 4 x 0,1 % in den letzten vier Monaten. Energie muss jedoch von den US-Konsumenten gekauft werden, an der Zapfsäule wie für die Heizung. Deshalb ist es Unsinn, Energie herauszurechnen.
Ein Kommentator bringt das Dilemma auf den Punkt: "Bis auf Inflation gibt es keine Inflation."
US-Aktien dürften in diesem Umfeld mittelfristig nachgeben. Wie der Dollar reagiert, ist die große Frage. Bislang hat ihn die Aussicht auf steigende Zinsen gegenüber dem Euro gestärkt. Wenn jedoch erst mal ins Bewusstsein dringt, dass dieser Zinsanstieg durch die Inflation aufgefressen wird (der Realzins also unverändert bleibt), werden sich ausländische Anleger zweimal überlegen, ob sie das mit der hohen Inflation verbundene Abwertungsrisiko des Dollar auf Dauer zu tragen bereit sind.
------------------
Katrina's blowback: inflation
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:06 PM ET Oct. 7, 2005
§
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Hurricane Katrina destroyed lives, homes, jobs and a major city. It also squeezed oil and gas production, spreading the pain across the nation.
Since the storm hit on Aug. 29, swamping New Orleans and sending gasoline and natural-gas prices to record levels, Federal Reserve officials have rushed to the breach, vowing to keep raising interest rates as high as necessary to keep inflation at bay.
Along with corporate-earnings announcements, the Fed will occupy the attention of the markets in the coming week. Four Fed policymakers, including Chairman Alan Greenspan, will speak on inflation and other economic topics during the week. Greenspan speaks Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
The minutes of the Sept. 20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be released on Tuesday, providing some potentially juicy gossip about why Gov. Mark Olson dissented from the last rate hike and whether there are any doves left on the FOMC.
Consumer-price index
Inflation will be front and center in the economic data. The consumer-price index for September will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
The CPI is expected to rise 0.8%, which would be the largest monthly gain since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990. Some economists are forecasting a jump as high as 1.5%, which would be a 32-year high and the second biggest increase ever.
The year-over-year increase in consumer prices will likely accelerate to 4%, a level not seen in more than a decade. No wonder the Fed is yelling about inflation.
However, economists expect little change in the core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs. The average forecast is for a 0.2% increase, after four straight 0.1% increases. The year-over-year increase in the core could actually fall by a tenth to 2%.
"Fortunately, aside from energy, pricing power remains fairly dormant elsewhere in the economy," said Leslie Preston, an economist for CIBC World Markets.
Any talk about the core CPI sets some people's teeth on edge. They argue that consumers and businesses must buy energy, so why exclude it when you talk about inflation?
As blogger and market strategist Barry Ritholtz says, "Except for inflation, there's no inflation."
Central bankers have targeted stable core inflation because they feel prices of commodities such as food and energy are determined not by monetary policy, but by global supply and demand that's heavily influenced by outside factors such as weather.
The Fed can't drill more oil or end a drought.
Inflation isn't a big one-time increase in gasoline prices, but a sustained increase in all prices. Individual price increases can only become inflationary if they are accommodated by consumers, businesses or the Fed.
Companies will try to pass along the costs of expensive energy to their customers. Workers will try to get their bosses to pay. But neither bosses nor workers have much pricing power right now.
"There is going to be near-term inflation," said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch. "Is it going to be sustained? I doubt it."
Rosenberg argues that global deflationary forces are still very powerful. Workers, in particular, have very little ability to get higher wages, which has traditionally been the main transmission method for inflation.
Wages, far from fueling inflation, are now holding it back. Average wages are up 2.6% in the past year, a full percentage point below the inflation rate.
With consumers squeezed on the income side, they are demanding -- and getting -- bargains on the consumption side, where they hold all the cards in every market that isn't supply-constrained by monopolies or bottlenecks.
The hefty increases in gasoline, natural gas and heating-oil prices pose a "serious threat to household budgets," CIBC's Preston said. Money spent on energy can't be spent elsewhere, which means retailers will have to keep the "sale" signs prominently displayed.
Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Tilton figures energy will sap about 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points from consumer spending this fall and winter, cutting the consumer's contribution to growth nearly in half.
A particularly cold winter could siphon even more disposable income away from consumers, Tilton wrote in his weekly report to clients. "Such a shock would put the economy at high risk of recession," he said.
Both the weather service and the Energy Department will give their winter forecasts on Wednesday.
Retail sales
Consumer spending stumbled ahead of the hurricanes, dropping 0.5% in August after big gains in June and July that were boosted by deals from the automakers.
In September, auto sales fell back, but not as much as feared. Chain-store sales also slipped early in the month, but came back strong later in the month.
The Commerce Department will report on September's retail sales on Friday morning. Forecasts look for a 0.4% gain after August's 2.1% decline. Excluding auto sales, retail sales likely rose 0.8%, a bit slower than the 1% gain in August.
Much of the gain in retail sales, of course, will be at gasoline stations, which benefited from the 60-cent increase in prices.
Later on Friday, the University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index for October will be reported. Economists expect an improvement to 80.7 from September's 76.9. Economists will take an extra long look at consumers' inflation expectations, which jumped in September after the hurricanes, putting the Fed on edge.
Other data
The trade deficit likely widened again in August to about $59.4 billion from $57.4 billion in July. The data will be released Thursday.
Industrial production was hammered by the hurricanes, likely falling 0.4% with capacity utilization falling to 79.4% from 79.8%. Oil and gas production is slowly coming back, but could take months to return to prestorm levels. The data will be released Friday.
Import prices likely climbed by another 0.9% in September after rising 1.3% in August, with petroleum the main culprit. Excluding petroleum, there's little price pressure from imports. The data will be released Thursday.
