US Current Account Deficit could reach 61/2% GDP- (R. Brenner - Morgan Stanley)
hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
Ausschnitt:
Only three months ago, I warned that the US current account deficit — the imbalance with the rest of the world in trade in goods and services, investment income, and transfers — might not peak until it reached 6% of GDP (see “When Will the Current Account Peak?” Global Economic Forum, June 25, 2004). I now think I was too optimistic. Despite a healthy July rebound in export growth, it now appears that the red ink could reach 6½% of GDP before stabilizing and subsequently shrinking.
...............
Three factors have darkened the outlook: First, global growth is now falling short of the US pace, dimming the odds that US export growth can outpace that of imports. Second, payments overseas from foreign investments in the US are now outpacing income receipts from abroad, reducing our income surplus. And third, crude oil prices have jumped by more than $10/barrel since June, and unless that rise is reversed, the US annual oil bill will increase by $40 billion more than appeared likely three months ago.
....................
Most are now bigger obstacles to current account stability than they seemed three months ago.
..............
With imports of goods, services and income now 40% bigger than exports, exports must grow that much faster than imports just to hold the current account constant. The bad news is that this ratio has begun to rise again after being stable for a year.
....................
That’s because import prices rise relatively quickly in response to the declining currency, boosting nominal imports................Thus, I estimate that the 2.8% rise in nonfuel import prices over the year ended in June increased the nominal merchandise trade gap by roughly $28 billion over that period.
,.....................
Rates are rising globally, so US investors will also benefit from increased investment income receipts. And most of our debt holdings are in UK securities; rates are higher in the UK and have risen by much more than US rates will have risen by year-end. Nonetheless, in June my colleagues Rebecca McCaughrin and Shital Patel calculated that, other things equal, renormalizing US interest rates could add $60–80 billion (0.5–0.7% of GDP) to the current account gap over the next two years.
....................
The fourth factor that will widen the current account deficit is payments for war, relief and reconstruction in Iraq. The Congressional Budget Office estimated in January that reconstruction costs will run $34–40 billion over the next three years.
..................
As if these hurdles weren’t enough, three new factors will increase the red ink over the next year. First, US-overseas growth differentials are starting to widen again. Courtesy of slower growth in Asia, real growth abroad, at 4.3%, has fallen short of the US rate by half a percentage point over the past year. As evidence of the impact, US exports to the Pacific Rim region rose by just 8.7% in the year ended in July, accounting for only 19% of the growth in overall US merchandise deliveries abroad, or far less than their 25% share in total exports.
..................
Second, America’s surpluses in services and in income received from investments abroad are at risk. That combined surplus in 2003 netted to more than $84 billion, but it shrank to a $64 billion annual rate in the second quarter.
.................
Finally soaring oil prices have bloated the nominal US imported energy bill, adding $38 billion to the current account gap during the year ended in June. The $11/bbl additional rise in crude quotes since June, if sustained for a year, would add another $40 billion to the current account deficit.
................
Der "Optimist" Mr. Brenner wurde in der letzten Zeit immer bearisher in Bezug auf das Wirtschaftswachstum in den USA und nun über das Current Account Defizit.
Der finanzielle Sturm gewinnt an Momentum.
hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
Ausschnitt:
Only three months ago, I warned that the US current account deficit — the imbalance with the rest of the world in trade in goods and services, investment income, and transfers — might not peak until it reached 6% of GDP (see “When Will the Current Account Peak?” Global Economic Forum, June 25, 2004). I now think I was too optimistic. Despite a healthy July rebound in export growth, it now appears that the red ink could reach 6½% of GDP before stabilizing and subsequently shrinking.
...............
Three factors have darkened the outlook: First, global growth is now falling short of the US pace, dimming the odds that US export growth can outpace that of imports. Second, payments overseas from foreign investments in the US are now outpacing income receipts from abroad, reducing our income surplus. And third, crude oil prices have jumped by more than $10/barrel since June, and unless that rise is reversed, the US annual oil bill will increase by $40 billion more than appeared likely three months ago.
....................
Most are now bigger obstacles to current account stability than they seemed three months ago.
..............
With imports of goods, services and income now 40% bigger than exports, exports must grow that much faster than imports just to hold the current account constant. The bad news is that this ratio has begun to rise again after being stable for a year.
....................
That’s because import prices rise relatively quickly in response to the declining currency, boosting nominal imports................Thus, I estimate that the 2.8% rise in nonfuel import prices over the year ended in June increased the nominal merchandise trade gap by roughly $28 billion over that period.
,.....................
Rates are rising globally, so US investors will also benefit from increased investment income receipts. And most of our debt holdings are in UK securities; rates are higher in the UK and have risen by much more than US rates will have risen by year-end. Nonetheless, in June my colleagues Rebecca McCaughrin and Shital Patel calculated that, other things equal, renormalizing US interest rates could add $60–80 billion (0.5–0.7% of GDP) to the current account gap over the next two years.
....................
The fourth factor that will widen the current account deficit is payments for war, relief and reconstruction in Iraq. The Congressional Budget Office estimated in January that reconstruction costs will run $34–40 billion over the next three years.
..................
As if these hurdles weren’t enough, three new factors will increase the red ink over the next year. First, US-overseas growth differentials are starting to widen again. Courtesy of slower growth in Asia, real growth abroad, at 4.3%, has fallen short of the US rate by half a percentage point over the past year. As evidence of the impact, US exports to the Pacific Rim region rose by just 8.7% in the year ended in July, accounting for only 19% of the growth in overall US merchandise deliveries abroad, or far less than their 25% share in total exports.
..................
Second, America’s surpluses in services and in income received from investments abroad are at risk. That combined surplus in 2003 netted to more than $84 billion, but it shrank to a $64 billion annual rate in the second quarter.
.................
Finally soaring oil prices have bloated the nominal US imported energy bill, adding $38 billion to the current account gap during the year ended in June. The $11/bbl additional rise in crude quotes since June, if sustained for a year, would add another $40 billion to the current account deficit.
................
Der "Optimist" Mr. Brenner wurde in der letzten Zeit immer bearisher in Bezug auf das Wirtschaftswachstum in den USA und nun über das Current Account Defizit.
Der finanzielle Sturm gewinnt an Momentum.
