Zwar von 18.07.03, aber vielleicht doch interessant
Auszug aus www.we-energies.com/natgasprice_status.htm
....
Unfortunately, no one knows with 100% certainty where natural gas prices will move next. And, while it is human nature to want to hear that prices are going to continue on a path lower, there are several factors that do not necessarily support that optimistic outlook and therefore, should not be overlooked. Those facts include the following:
While refilling at a rapid pace, storage levels are currently just 53.3% full. By comparison, storage inventories last year at this time were 71.4% full, while the five-year average for this time of year is 63.8%.
While natural gas drilling rigs are increasing, production increases are not keeping pace with the growth in natural gas demand – much of which has been driven by new natural gas-fueled electric generation.
Hurricane season is already off to a strong start and meteorologists are calling for storms to form fast and furious between mid-August and the end of September.
The warmest months of the summer are still ahead, which could lead to an increase in natural gas-fueled electric generation.
In addition, to the reasons set forth above, a bias exists to the upside because of the impact of speculative buying. Speculative buying is playing a much larger role in where the price of natural gas moves each day. In the past, buying and selling of natural gas futures contracts by non-commercial players, which are primarily speculators, was offset by buying and selling of natural gas futures contracts by commercial players, or large energy companies, like Enron, Dynegy, etc. As these large energy companies have exited or cut back on their trading operations, the activities generated by speculators is no longer being offset. As a result, buying and selling activity by non-commercials or speculators will move the price of the traded commodity on the NYMEX, which in turn, impacts the physical price of gas for businesses throughout the nation.
The goal of non-commercial players is to make a profit through buying low and selling high or selling high and buying low. Currently, non-commercials are "short" the NYMEX futures contract. This means they have sold NYMEX contracts, and at some point in the future, these non-commercials will buy NYMEX contracts to offset their position and take their profits. This increase in buying activity will drive natural gas prices up. However, the timing of this increase in buying activity is unknown and very difficult to predict.
So, ultimately, we are faced with two very different scenarios. If summer weather remains mild, it will allow natural volumes to continue to be injected into storage for the upcoming winter. Given adequate storage inventories, and providing there are no hurricanes to threaten Gulf of Mexico production, it is certainly possible that commodity prices could fall to $.40 per therm. However, it is equally possible for natural gas commodity prices to return to $.60 per therm – a scenario that must be considered and weighed when making future natural gas buying decisions.
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Auszug aus www.we-energies.com/natgasprice_status.htm
....
Unfortunately, no one knows with 100% certainty where natural gas prices will move next. And, while it is human nature to want to hear that prices are going to continue on a path lower, there are several factors that do not necessarily support that optimistic outlook and therefore, should not be overlooked. Those facts include the following:
While refilling at a rapid pace, storage levels are currently just 53.3% full. By comparison, storage inventories last year at this time were 71.4% full, while the five-year average for this time of year is 63.8%.
While natural gas drilling rigs are increasing, production increases are not keeping pace with the growth in natural gas demand – much of which has been driven by new natural gas-fueled electric generation.
Hurricane season is already off to a strong start and meteorologists are calling for storms to form fast and furious between mid-August and the end of September.
The warmest months of the summer are still ahead, which could lead to an increase in natural gas-fueled electric generation.
In addition, to the reasons set forth above, a bias exists to the upside because of the impact of speculative buying. Speculative buying is playing a much larger role in where the price of natural gas moves each day. In the past, buying and selling of natural gas futures contracts by non-commercial players, which are primarily speculators, was offset by buying and selling of natural gas futures contracts by commercial players, or large energy companies, like Enron, Dynegy, etc. As these large energy companies have exited or cut back on their trading operations, the activities generated by speculators is no longer being offset. As a result, buying and selling activity by non-commercials or speculators will move the price of the traded commodity on the NYMEX, which in turn, impacts the physical price of gas for businesses throughout the nation.
The goal of non-commercial players is to make a profit through buying low and selling high or selling high and buying low. Currently, non-commercials are "short" the NYMEX futures contract. This means they have sold NYMEX contracts, and at some point in the future, these non-commercials will buy NYMEX contracts to offset their position and take their profits. This increase in buying activity will drive natural gas prices up. However, the timing of this increase in buying activity is unknown and very difficult to predict.
So, ultimately, we are faced with two very different scenarios. If summer weather remains mild, it will allow natural volumes to continue to be injected into storage for the upcoming winter. Given adequate storage inventories, and providing there are no hurricanes to threaten Gulf of Mexico production, it is certainly possible that commodity prices could fall to $.40 per therm. However, it is equally possible for natural gas commodity prices to return to $.60 per therm – a scenario that must be considered and weighed when making future natural gas buying decisions.
