Soyabohnen long - könnte man riskieren

Denn es sprich einiges dafür:

- 2 Gaps offen.

- Boden bei 560 - 570 dürfe als massiv angeseh´n werden.

- comercials ebenfalls long: 15 zu 12

- Mögliche Scheinchen:
  ABN0Q1  
  ABN3JD  
  ABN5SQ
  ABN3JE  

xpfuture

Gerücht der Index orientierten Funds, die zu Beginn des neuen Jahres verstärkt in Agrarrohstoffe investieren sollen. Bis jetzt gibt es jedoch keine großen Anzeichen verstärkter Käufe, da der Markt von Tag zu Tag nachgegeben hat.

xpfuture

Zertis im Moment nicht handelbar.

xpfuture

14.09.04	Sojabohnen	ABN3JD	ABN-Amro	call	E	open end	KO	458.71	503.75	10
14.09.04	Sojabohnen	ABN3JE	ABN-Amro	call	E	open end	KO	253.24	278.11	10
14.09.04	Sojabohnen	ABN3JH	ABN-Amro	put	E	open end	KO	874.13	788.03	10
05.01.05	Sojabohnen	ABN5SQ	ABN-Amro	call	E	open end	KO	346.60	380.63	10
28.02.05	Sojabohnen	ABN0Q1	ABN-Amro	call	E	open end	KO	496.58	545.33	10
12.04.05	Sojabohnen	ABN410	ABN-Amro	put	E	open end	KO	924.30	833.25	10
24.06.05	Sojabohnen	ABN8WD	ABN-Amro	put	E	open end	KO	1014.80	914.84	10
22.07.05	Sojabohnen	ABN1C9	ABN-Amro	put	E	open end	KO	831.68	749.76	10
24.08.05	Sojabohnen	ABN7PV	ABN-Amro	put	E	open end	KO	749.70	675.85	10
31.08.05	Sojabohnen	ABN7Q0	ABN-Amro	put	E	open end	KO	720.20	649.26	10
31.08.05	Sojabohnen	ABN7YS	ABN-Amro	put	E	open end	KO	794.64	716.37	10
23.09.05	Sojabohnen	GS8SPM	Goldman Sachs	call	A	open end	KO	4.27	4.69	10
23.09.05	Sojabohnen	GS8SPN	Goldman Sachs	call	A	open end	KO	4.77	5.25	10
23.09.05	Sojabohnen	GS8SPP	Goldman Sachs	call	A	open end	KO	4.73	5.21	5
23.09.05	Sojabohnen	GS8SPQ	Goldman Sachs	put	A	open end	KO	7.19	6.47	10
23.09.05	Sojabohnen	GS8SPR	Goldman Sachs	put	A	open end	KO	7.68	6.91	10
23.09.05	Sojabohnen	GS8SPS	Goldman Sachs	put	A	open end	KO	8.18	7.36	10
28.10.05	Sojabohnen	DZ7V30	DZ Bank	put	E	22.06.06	KO	7.00	6.50	1
28.10.05	Sojabohnen	DZ7V31	DZ Bank	put	E	22.06.06	KO	7.25	6.75	1
28.10.05	Sojabohnen	DZ7V32	DZ Bank	put	E	22.06.06	KO	7.50	7.00	1
28.10.05	Sojabohnen	DZ7V3X	DZ Bank	call	E	22.06.06	KO	5.00	5.50	1
22.12.05	Sojabohnen	DZ7WVV	DZ Bank	call	E	22.06.06	KO	5.25	5.75	1

abn0qi auf jeden fal - test it

überhaupt kein Schein - weder ABN noch GS

xpfuture

Soja ist aus charttechnischer Sicht interessant. Wichtiger sind hier nach meiner Auffassung jedoch die Wetterdaten, Ernteschätzungen usw.

gruss

permanent

ob du kurz- oder langfristig investieren willst.

Kurzfristig hat sich ein long auf jeden Fall schon bezahlt gemacht.

xpfuture

Soybean Complex Market Recap for 1/27/2006
March Soybeans finished up 16 1/4 at 589 1/4, 1 1/4 off the high and 15 1/4 up from the low. May Soybeans closed up 15 1/4 at 599 3/4. This was 14 1/4 up from the low and 1 3/4 off the high.

March Soymeal closed up 6.1 at 186.4. This was 4.1 up from the low and 0.4 off the high.

March Soybean Oil finished up 0.54 at 22.05, 0.05 off the high and 0.3 up from the low.

1/27/2006 March soybeans closed at its highest level since January 10th today amid concerns with the hot and dry weather in the forecast for Argentina into the middle of next week and mixed opinions on just how much relief will be in store for the Argentina crop in the middle of next week. In addition, traders expected fund buying, which has been so active in the wheat and corn over the past week, to begin to bleed over the soybean complex and help support the market. The overnight weather maps were a little drier and a little hotter for Argentina for the weekend and early next week, and the uncertainty sets the market up for a volatile opening on Monday, depending on the forecast. The ability of the soybean market to close higher on Thursday in the face of bearish demand news added to the positive tone for the market and sparked some short covering. Near term resistance for March soybeans comes in at 590 1/4 and 599.

Soybean Complex Market Recap for 1/30/2006
March Soybeans finished up 9 1/2 at 598 3/4, 7 1/2 off the high and 5 1/2 up from the low. May Soybeans closed up 9 3/4 at 609 1/2. This was 6 3/4 up from the low and 7 off the high.

March Soymeal closed up 1.8 at 188.2. This was 1.4 up from the low and 2.3 off the high.

March Soybean Oil finished up 0.15 at 22.2, 0.25 off the high and 0.05 up from the low.

The market found support from the more active fund buying pace and from continued concerns with the hot and dry weather in the forecast for Argentina this week. While some areas are to receive some scattered rains, temperatures are expected to hit near 100 degrees which might quickly deplete any light moisture received. Brazil crop conditions may have improved recently but the market seems to believe that if futures managed to rally with all of the bearish fundamental news last week that a minor weather glitch in Argentina could spark significant new buying from funds and also additional short-covering. In fact, the Commitment-of-Traders report with options showed that as of January 24th, speculators were net short nearly 51,000 contracts. Weekly export inspections came in at just 18.85 million bushels as compared with 22-30 million bushels expected. Cumulative export shipments have reached just 47.9% of the current USDA forecast for the year as compared with 59.9% on average for this time of the year. Cash basis levels were lower due to talk of more active producer selling on the rally in the cash market of the past week. Near term resistance for March soybeans comes in at 600 1/2 and 604 1/2 with 590 1/2 and 585 as support.

Mid-Session Soy Complex Market Report for 1/31/2006
March soybeans opened 1/4 cent higher on the session at 599 and established an early range of 594 to 599. A better chance for rains across dry areas of Argentina helped trigger the early selling pressures for the soybean complex but strength in the wheat and corn and ideas that fund traders will continue to buy minor dips helped to support. Talk of slow export news with China buyers out for holiday this week and other buyers waiting for cheaper values into the South American harvest helped to pressure the market. However, inflationary expectations are providing underlying support with strength in the metals and sugar again today. The prominent Hamburg-based oilseed analysts Oil World pegged world production for the 2005/2006 season at 219.31 million tonnes with world consumption at 213.5 million tonnes. World ending stocks are pegged at 60 million tonnes from 54.19 million tonnes last year. Near term resistance for March soybeans comes in at 599 and 604 1/2 with 590 1/2 and 585 as support.

Mid-Session Soy Complex Market Report for 2/1/2006
March soybeans opened 7 3/4 cents lower on the session at 586 1/2 and established an early range of 584 1/2 to 589 1/4. Rain in Argentina and the forecast for more scattered rains this week helped drive the market lower early in the session. The ridge is expected to keep southern Brazil warm and dry for another 3-4 days before more rains move in to keep Brazil crops developing well. Talk of good rains in the forecast for Argentina for early February has local traders and agronomists in Argentina talking of much improving crops after recent dryness stress but there is still optimism in many areas of high yields. The rains are thought to come too late to help the corn crop but most of the soybean crop areas are expected to see a boost in production potential. Stats Canada pegged canola stocks as of December 31st at 7.546 million tonnes, up 42.5% from last year. Near term resistance for March soybeans comes in at 591 and 599 with 583 1/2 and 578 3/4 as support.

Diagnose: Der Future auf Sojabohnen im adjustierten Endloskontrakt fiel im Januar 2006 unter die wichtige 599,50er Unterstützung und aktivierte mit diesem Kursrücksetzer das alternative Szenario. Im Zuge der Abwärtsbewegung wurde das aufgerissene Gap (Kurslücke) zwischen 568,75 - 582,00 US-Cent/bushel geschlossen. Seit dem letzten Bewegungstief bei 545,50 US-Cent/bushel formiert sich ein moderat ansteigender Aufwärtstrend, der aktuell bei 565,00 US-Cent/bushel verläuft.

Prognose: Ein Kursanstieg über 599,50 US-Cent/bushel wird weiterhin benötigt, um bullische Ambitionen zu rechtfertigen. Der exp. GDL (EMA200/rot) verstärkt die Aussagekraft der Kaufmarke, da er ebenfalls in dem Kursbereich notiert. Einen weiteren zentralen Widerstand bildet der Bereich 622,00 US-Cent/bushel, hier treffen eine wichtige horizontale Widerstandslinie und die markante Abwärtstrendlinie seit Juni 2005 aufeinander.

xpfuture

P.S. Hallo permanent, danke für die Mühe

Soybean Complex Market Recap for 2/9/2006
March Soybeans finished up 9 3/4 at 587 3/4, 6 1/4 off the high and 10 1/4 up from the low. May Soybeans closed up 10 1/2 at 601 3/4. This was 10 3/4 up from the low and 5 1/4 off the high.

March Soymeal closed up 1.4 at 181.6. This was 1.6 up from the low and 2.2 off the high.

March Soybean Oil finished up 0.5 at 22.65, 0.1 off the high and 0.53 up from the low.

Closing strong in spite of bearish USDA news suggests solid underlying support for the soybean market. A general lack of interest in selling grains and a surge higher in metals and some other commodity markets helped trigger the higher opening in spite of bearish news posted by the USDA in the US and World Supply/Demand reports. The USDA pegged ending stocks at 555 million bushels as compared with trade expectations near 534 million bushels (range 505-555). This is a record high for ending stocks and compares with just 256 million bushels last year. Exports were revised lower by 40 million bushels to just 910 million bushels. The crush was revised 10 million lower. World ending stocks for the 2005/2006 season were pegged at 53.83 million tonnes from 53.15 million tonnes last month and from 44.87 million tonnes this past season. This is also an all-time record high. Traders expected lower production forecasts for both Brazil and Argentina due to recent drier weather but the estimates were left unchanged. Weekly US export sales for soybeans came in at 562,300 metric tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 250,000-400,000. Cumulative sales have reached just 73.5% of the USDA forecast as compared to 83.7% on average over the last five years. Meal sales were 133,300 metric tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 50,000-125,000. Cumulative sales have reached 59.9% of the USDA forecast as compared to 61.3% on average over the last five years. Sales of 70,100 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. Soybean oil sales were just 600 metric tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 0-10,000. Near term resistance for March soybeans comes in at 590 and 598 1/4 with 578 and 572 as support.

Rückblick: Der Future auf Sojabohnen im adjustierten Endloskontrakt fiel im Januar 2006 unter die wichtige 604,00er Unterstützung und aktivierte mit diesem Kursrücksetzer das alternative Szenario. Seit dem letzten Bewegungstief bei 554,25 US-Cent/bushel mündet der Future in einen Aufwärtstrend, der aktuell bei 560,00 US-Cent/bushel verläuft. Der übergeordnete Abwärtstrend seit Juni 2005 und auch der Abwärtstrend seit dem Bewegungshoch bei 622,00 US-Cent/bushel werden im Zuge der bullischen Ausbruchsbewegung nach oben ausgehebelt. Diese charttechnische Konstellation lässt eine sich aufbauende bullische Stimmung zu.

Charttechnischer Ausblick: Der aktuelle Kursanstieg über 604,00 US-Cent/bushel dient als weiterer bullischer Aspekt, um die bullische Ambitionen zu rechtfertigen. Die charttechnische Konstellation dürfte weiteres Aufwärtspotenzial bis zum nächstliegenden Horizontalwiderstand bei 622,00 US-Cent/bushel freisetzen. Im Anschluss wäre dann eine Fortsetzung bis 647,00 US-Cent/bushel wahrscheinlich.

xpfuture

könnte es noch bis Juni weiterlaufen.

xpfuture