Auszüge aus Gene Ingers Daily Briefing (ingerletter.com) für Mittwoch, 29.12.
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There is no doubt that there's going to be corrective action in the 1st Quarter; the question is just if it comes without or with a couple of efforts to "press" the upside at the year's commencement; a determination that isn't useful in speculating about, but which should be discernable as we are able to move into the New Year next week. Meanwhile, these funds generated form technology stock sales (more specifically Internet stock sales) are going into the desired "value" plays, of which there are tons, but not necessarily in areas this Generation more or less became solely comfortable with. Our own view of technology stocks remains the same as noted again in last evening's DB, and given the profit-taking in some of the e-tailing stocks today, we're unlikely to change that view, given the market is essentially validating it.
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Technically . . . we're not inclined to excessively trade the S&P intraday, because the swings in this particular climate are so rangebound. That may change immediately, given the propensity of most investors to complete yearend transactions by the last regular day for settlement this year. In this regard, the overnight position trade is just that, but will readily come out if it looks like this market can shoot for S&P 1500, though analytically it isn't particularly justified. Seasonally it is.
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That traditional pattern would more logically mesh with the idea of completing this move either in the beginning (or later) January phases, with negative action in much of the first half of 2000. If it is thusly, we're still anticipating that the second half would generally be an important upward run. Also, the Federal Reserve's stance would imply that if anything occurs (most clearly draining the system of excess reserves), this would occur in the first half of the year, not in the second half.
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We ourselves prefer larger stocks, but will not buy them into extreme strength, at times when the downside short-term (call it after early/mid January into later February or as may be determined) can become somewhat open-ended. But for these stocks, no, ultimate highs are not yet seen in our opinion. This is probably (taken over the next year or two overall) also true for Lucent (LU), Texas Instruments (TXN), and also for recent addition to the "core" list, Analog Devices (ADI). This is one area where, from an investment grade basis, we're in harmony with larger managers; though again, while not requiring any "structural" bear, a nasty correction is on the coming menu.
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In Summary. . . the Dow was relatively strong today, while breadth was not in either market. It's likely this is the clearing up of remaining tax-related transactions, after which (barring shocks) a flurry of upside action, possibly even snappy, could be looked for early in the New Year's start. It is not a departure from the norm, though the market's firm stocks are increasingly strained to run up, while sector rotation is increasingly visible. We absolutely are prepared for slightly higher DJ and overall market levels, though caution these run-up's are not likely to garner unquestioning buying as they have in the past, at least not from many managers. It's not out of the question we have an effort to shift into more mundane, almost old-line stocks, to at least hold the pretty face of the market into the New Year, and essentially that's what we've talked about before, and is an effort in progress. This is mostly of interest to Index and fund managers, as the duration of such a run may not be sustainable to warrant investments on the part of normal individual investors, though it could be interesting for a very short period of days or even a week or two in January.
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...
There is no doubt that there's going to be corrective action in the 1st Quarter; the question is just if it comes without or with a couple of efforts to "press" the upside at the year's commencement; a determination that isn't useful in speculating about, but which should be discernable as we are able to move into the New Year next week. Meanwhile, these funds generated form technology stock sales (more specifically Internet stock sales) are going into the desired "value" plays, of which there are tons, but not necessarily in areas this Generation more or less became solely comfortable with. Our own view of technology stocks remains the same as noted again in last evening's DB, and given the profit-taking in some of the e-tailing stocks today, we're unlikely to change that view, given the market is essentially validating it.
...
Technically . . . we're not inclined to excessively trade the S&P intraday, because the swings in this particular climate are so rangebound. That may change immediately, given the propensity of most investors to complete yearend transactions by the last regular day for settlement this year. In this regard, the overnight position trade is just that, but will readily come out if it looks like this market can shoot for S&P 1500, though analytically it isn't particularly justified. Seasonally it is.
...
That traditional pattern would more logically mesh with the idea of completing this move either in the beginning (or later) January phases, with negative action in much of the first half of 2000. If it is thusly, we're still anticipating that the second half would generally be an important upward run. Also, the Federal Reserve's stance would imply that if anything occurs (most clearly draining the system of excess reserves), this would occur in the first half of the year, not in the second half.
...
We ourselves prefer larger stocks, but will not buy them into extreme strength, at times when the downside short-term (call it after early/mid January into later February or as may be determined) can become somewhat open-ended. But for these stocks, no, ultimate highs are not yet seen in our opinion. This is probably (taken over the next year or two overall) also true for Lucent (LU), Texas Instruments (TXN), and also for recent addition to the "core" list, Analog Devices (ADI). This is one area where, from an investment grade basis, we're in harmony with larger managers; though again, while not requiring any "structural" bear, a nasty correction is on the coming menu.
...
In Summary. . . the Dow was relatively strong today, while breadth was not in either market. It's likely this is the clearing up of remaining tax-related transactions, after which (barring shocks) a flurry of upside action, possibly even snappy, could be looked for early in the New Year's start. It is not a departure from the norm, though the market's firm stocks are increasingly strained to run up, while sector rotation is increasingly visible. We absolutely are prepared for slightly higher DJ and overall market levels, though caution these run-up's are not likely to garner unquestioning buying as they have in the past, at least not from many managers. It's not out of the question we have an effort to shift into more mundane, almost old-line stocks, to at least hold the pretty face of the market into the New Year, and essentially that's what we've talked about before, and is an effort in progress. This is mostly of interest to Index and fund managers, as the duration of such a run may not be sustainable to warrant investments on the part of normal individual investors, though it could be interesting for a very short period of days or even a week or two in January.
