Today I'll offer a stock idea in the genetic research field. Santa Clara, California,-based Affymetrix (AFFX), a leading player and pioneer in developing and selling genomics research analysis equipment, is poised to be an excellent turnaround story. After years of accumulated debt and declining revenues, the company has finally undertaken a long-term strategy for returning to profitability.
It appears to me that Affymetrix is incredibly cheap in light of its turnaround initiative as its restructuring and debt reduction efforts should boost its financial performance significantly going forward. It seems the company is moving in the right direction. I believe the stock could turn out to be a multi-bagger if the turnaround initiative becomes successful, which looks like a strong possibility right now.
Affymetrix: At A Glance
Affymetrix provides life science tools and molecular diagnostic products that enable parallel analysis of biological systems at the gene, protein and cell level primarily in the United States, Europe, Latin America and Asia. In June 2012, Affymetrix acquired eBioscience for $315 million in cash, a company that specializes in the development, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of research tools in the areas of flow cytometry, immunoassays, microscopic imaging and other protein-based analyses.
Last year Affymetrix reorganized its business in the following four business units: Expression, Genetic Analysis and Clinical Applications, Life Science Reagents and Corporate. These four business units represent one reportable operating segment for the company, Affymetrix Core, apart from eBioscience, the other reportable operating segment.
Background
Affymetrix's main product line has been the GeneChip microarray platform, an instrument system in genomics research. Affymetrix was the first company to develop the GeneChip microarray platform, which is widely used in many research institutions as an essential part of genetic analysis. GeneChip's components include disposable probe arrays, reagents, a scanner and software. It offers an integrated solution for gene expression and genotyping. Affymetrix sells the reusable portions of this platform, including the reagents and the analysis instrument, at low margins but sells the one-time-use consumable probe arrays at a high margin.
Apart from GeneChip, the company offers two other instrument systems, namely GeneTitan and GeneAtlas. GeneTitan consists of the GeneTitan tool, Axiom array plates/custom arrays and gene expression array plates. The GeneTitan platform provides an automated solution for monitoring gene expression and genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPS, in short) genotyping. Affymetrix's GeneAtlas platform consists of the GeneAtlas microarray system and gene expression array plates.
After Affymetrix pioneered the GeneChip system, many biotech companies expanded their product lines to include similar systems with the same functionality. As a result, Affymetrix's market share and profitability started to decline. However, to regain market share and return to profitability, Affymetrix management is transforming the company from one that is highly dependent on its GeneChip product line to one with diversified revenue streams with a broad reach in the field of translational medicine, molecular diagnostics and agricultural biotechnology. Acquisition of eBioscience was the first step in the transformation process.
Affymetrix's Turnaround Initiative
Affymetrix management has divided its turnaround initiative into three phases. In Phase I (2011-2012), the company acquired eBioscience and released Cytoscan cytogenetics arrays for genotyping and gene expression applications. Affymetrix reckons cytogenetics is a promising area for expansion, representing market opportunities of roughly $200 million.
In Phase II (2013-2014), Affymetrix management will focus on establishing the company as a key provider of molecular diagnostics products and building its presence in the applied genomics market, particularly in agrigenomics. Management will be looking to commercialize newer product lines, which include CytoScan, Axiom and QuantiGene lines, as well as eBioscience products.
In this phase Affymetrix management is aiming at ensuring sustained profitability by strengthening its balance sheet. For achieving this management is implementing a corporate restructuring program, which is expected to result in annualized savings of approximately $25 million. Furthermore, the company has initiated a cost reduction program in the form of reducing headcount. During the three months ended March 31, 2013, approximately 100 employees were notified of their involuntary termination.
Finally, in Phase III (2015-2016), Affymetrix will be looking for some strategic acquisitions in order to boost the top line significantly. A robust balance sheet will help the company in doing so, Affymetrix management expects.
Affymetrix's Microarray Solutions to Boost Market Share
Affymetrix is evolving into a provider of scalable and innovative genomic analysis tools for scientific discovery, exploration, validation and genetic testing. The company acquired Panomics, USB and Anatrace for high-throughput, mid- to low-plex assays and high-quality, cost-effective molecular biology reagents and biochemicals that enable a complete solution for genome-wide to single-gene analysis.
Affymetrix offers microarray solutions that include all necessary components for a successful microarray experiment, from arrays and reagents to instruments and software. Furthermore, the company provides a complete range of solutions that addresses diverse research needs, from RNA to DNA analysis, a few to thousands of samples, and complete genome-wide analysis.
The company recently announced that it will add a new genotyping format into its existing Axiom genotyping platform. I believe that the format, known as Axiom 384HT, will act as a positive catalyst to boost the company's applied genomics market share. This is a breakthrough innovation that will lead to a cost-effective, high-throughput format for genotyping in which 384 samples are simultaneously processed with 384 discrete microarrays in a microplate format analyzing up to 50,000 SNPs per sample. Moreover, it will address both the human and agrigenomics fields of study using population-optimized or application-focused content.
Limagrain, a French agricultural cooperative and the fourth largest seed company in the world, has already adopted the Axiom 384HT format for routine genotyping of a number of plants. I expect that more such agricultural farms will adopt Axiom 384HT in the near future.
Affymetrix Expanding Into Cancer Research
Affymetrix believes that cancer research could provide market opportunities of approximately $500 million. Affymetrix has been providing OncoScan as a service for about two years now, and the company recently launched the OncoScan platform to facilitate commercial availability of the product version of OncoScan. The platform will not only allow customers to analyze samples at their own labs, but also help them to analyze whole-genome copy number changes. Moreover, OncoScan will help users to analyze a wide range of clinically relevant somatic mutations in tumor biopsy samples.
In April this year, Affymetrix and BioDiscovery announced the availability of Nexus for OncoScan Software for the analysis of whole genome copy number data generated from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE, in short) solid tumor samples using the OncoScan FFPE Express 2.0 Service. These initiatives will help the company gain market share in cancer research.
Affymetrix's Competitive Advantage
To guard against strong competitors delivering similar products, Affymetrix maintains various collaborative relationships with key technology providers and research organizations. Affymetrix has technology collaborations with a number of instrumentation and reagent companies including Beckman Coulter, Life Technologies Corporation, Luminex Corporation and Qiagen GmbH.
In March this year, Affymetrix entered into a partnership with Aqua Gen and the Center for Integrative Genomics (CIGENE) at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences to genotype more than 900,000 markers per sample from the Atlantic salmon to implement genomic selection and enhance the salmon breeding program at Aqua Gen.
Affymetrix also entered in a joint research program with UK Biobank in March to carry on a long-term epidemiological study investigating complex human diseases affecting public health. The aim of this large-scale project is to improve the diagnosis and treatment of diseases such as cancer, heart diseases, stroke, diabetes, arthritis, osteoporosis, eye disorders, depression and forms of dementia.
More Positive Catalysts for Affymetrix Stock
Affymetrix exited the second quarter with a strong financial position with total cash and cash equivalents of $44.1 million. After paying down 25% of its debt over the last year, Affymetrix has now $22.8 million in net debt excluding its convertible debt. With Affymetrix's current debt position at a very manageable level, it's a strong possibility right now that the company will look into refinancing its remaining debt to reduce interest burden.
The company continues to aggressively grow both segments of its Genetic Analysis business, genotyping and clinical arrays. I expect that Affymetrix's clinical diagnostic business will grow in double digits in 2013, driven by its cytogenetics program and increased traction of its Axiom genotyping platform.
Affymetrix recently implemented a broad and an aggressive marketing campaign for its Human Transcriptome Array or HTA, which has the potential to stabilize its Expression business. HTA is a complement to RNA sequencing as it addresses some of the limitations of that application. This HTA application is also an excellent complement to the company's newly launched OncoScan assay, which measures copy number and somatic mutations in the same clinical sample type.
Affymetrix: Valuation and Short-Term Target
Affymetrix's EBITDA for the second quarter of 2013 was $13.6 million or 17% of sales, and year-to-date EBITDA is more than $24 million or 15% of sales. Since Affymetrix is still a loss-making entity, it is not possible to value the company using a P/E multiple. In terms of Price to Book multiple for the last quarter, the stock is currently trading around 1.3x, well below the industry average of 3.71x.
AFFX Price / Book Value data by YCharts
With respect to Price to Book, Affymetrix is trading at a significant discount relative to its peers offering similar product lines, such as Agilent Technologies (A), Illumina (ILMN), Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB), Abiomed (ABMD) and Life Technologies (LIFE). However, Affymetrix not being profitable yet, I would assign a Price to Book multiple of only 2x (on a Book Value per Share of $3.626) for the company, which leads to my short-term target price of $7.25 for the stock. That's a 45% upside from the current price of $5.00. But in the long-term, as I said above, the stock could emerge as a potential multi-bagger.
Should You Consider Buying Affymetrix at the Current Price?
Despite competition, Affymetrix is a leading player in genetic engineering. I feel the company is transitioning to become a complete player in genetic research. Affymetrix's turnaround initiatives will help the company cover a wide array of segments, starting from instrument systems in genomics research to applied genomics and agrigenomics to cytogenetics. With so many sources of revenue, it's hard to believe the company won't succeed. Furthermore, as an emerging player in cancer research, its revenue is expected to grow by 20% y-o-y.
Don't forget, if you buy Affymetrix, you're actually buying a unique genetic engineering business that covers almost every segment in the field. And when it's a turnaround story, your chance of making money increases manifold. I believe the company will return to profit within FY2014, much earlier than Phase III is complete. The company already posted an EPS of $0.04 for Q2, 2013. Another quarter of positive EPS could act as a tremendous trigger for the stock. I think the eBioscience acquisition was the real catalyst for the company, which Mr. Market failed to understand initially.
I would recommend buying the stock at the current price, as I feel Mr. Market has finally understood the growth potential. I expect my short-term target of $7.25 would play out within 2013.
Potential Risks
The biggest issue the company has is its North America growth rate. It's a pretty difficult situation with the sequestration and price pressure. Although the company is seeing good growth rates in Europe and Asia, it's struggling in North America.
The company is heavily reliant on orders from research institutions to generate revenue. As a result, fluctuations in the research funding for these institutions, a large percentage of which come from NIH grants, would negatively impact Affymetrix's revenue growth.
Affymetrix's GeneChip probe arrays are created using publicly available genetic sequencing information, which is updated daily and changed frequently due to new discoveries in the field. This exposes some of Affymetrix's products, the GeneChip microarray platform in particular, to the risk of becoming obsolete if the company fails to update them.
Conclusion
Affymetrix's strategic acquisitions and collaborations, new product launches and shift of focus toward diversified revenue streams are expected to propel future top line growth. The company is aggressively cutting expenses for expanding margins and boosting profitability. It's undoubtedly an excellent turnaround story worth looking into.
MFG
Chali