The Scoop: Futures are lower before the bell, and without much market-moving news to shake up stocks, the focus is expected to stay on corporate profit warnings. Thursday night saw a downpour of warnings, and as early as Monday after the close a second shower could be seen. It's going to keep trading on the light side, and it will add to profit-taking pressure.
The Outlook:Our technical analysts expect some pullback over the next couple sessions as the earnings warning fears play out. From there, gains by mid-week appear more likely.
Market Data -- Monday, June 11 PRE-OPEN Dow Jones S&P-500 Nasdaq-100
Value 10,977 1,265 1,896
50-day moving avg. 10,659 1,234 1,798
IDEA Stance Mixed Mixed Mixed
IDEA Target
(2-day)
10,939 1,245 1,872
Beyond the Market: Crude Oil is on the rise following flooding in Texas. It's felt that transportation problems in the oil-rich state could bring prices higher in other parts of the U.S.There is no major economic data to be released Monday, but expect the minds of traders to be on some data due later in the week.On Wednesday May retail sales will be released. Expectations are for a gain of 0.2% versus a revised 1.1% for April. Excluding autos, sales are expected to rise 0.4% (versus 0.8% in April). On Thursday May producer prices will be released - expectations are for a gain of 0.3%, and 0.1% excluding food and energy. On Friday May consumer prices will be released, and expectations are for a rise of 0.4%, and 0.2% excluding food and energy.Also Friday, and potentially more important in the thinking of the Fed, will be May industrial production and capacity utilization figures. Industrial production is expected to slip 0.4% (versus a drop of 0.3% in April) and capacity utilization is expected to fall to 78% from 78.5% in April. Industrial production is the largest area of the economy, and the Fed will be watching to see if the core of the economy needs further propping up, in the form of more cuts to interest rates.Early Monday, Fed officials Laurence Meyer and Robert McTeer will both be speaking. Sector Watch: There is little sector-specific movement in pre-market trading. Financials could get a boost merger speculation surrounding Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and American Express. Auto stocks may benefit from a Salomon Smith Barney upgrade of Ford, stating that bad news is already priced into the stock. Movers:AOL Time Warner [AOL:NYSE] and Chinese PC maker Legend will team up in a $200m joint venture to provide Internet service in China. With Legend's 40% of Chinese domestic PC sales, the deal is expected to give AOL a solid foothold in the Chinese ISP market. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter [MWD:NYSE] has been holding informal talks with American Express [AXP:NYSE] about a possible merger, according to Barron's. The two banking firms have been in talks for some time, according to sources, and the resignation of MSDW President John Mack in January was at least partly caused by these talks.GE [GE:NYSE] may be willing to triple the amount of divestitures it undertakes to gain approval for a deal to acquire Honeywell [HON:NYSE] for $42bn. GE's Capital Aviation Services division is at issue with the European Commission, which feels the leasing unit gives GE to much leverage over customers. DuPont Photomasks [DPMI:Nasdaq] expects Q4 results to fall short of estimates. The maker of semiconductor imprinting equipment said Q4 earnings would be $0.00-$0.19 per share, below the $0.52 expected by analysts. Sales are expected to drop 3.5% from last year to $91m-$98m, below the $108m expected. The firm is citing the slowdown in the global semiconductor industry for the shortfall. Peregrine Systems [PRGN:Nasdaq] will buy Remedy [RMDY:Nasdaq] for $1.08bn in cash and stock. Peregrine, an infrastructure management software firm, is buying this rival to expand its presence in the small business market. The deal values Remedy at $35.12, a premium of about 91%. Spectrian [SPCT:Nasdaq] said after the close Friday that first-quarter results will be below expectations due to an economic slowdown in North America and Korea. The maker of radio frequency amplifiers and semiconductors said Q1 losses will be $0.70-$0.87 per share on sales of $27m-$33m. Analysts had expected Spectrian to lose just $0.26 per share.Alexander & Baldwin [ALEX:Nasdaq] said its profits in Q2 will be 10%-15% lower than the $0.69 per share earned a year ago. The diversified food and transportation firm said results will be partially impacted by a seasonal drop in large property sales