was sagt der US-Profi?
Aus dem Daily Briefing von Gene Inger (www.ingerletter.com):
...Further, now everybody can measure Dow Industrials 9000 or so, as have we for months. And of course they'll not consider that the smart move might be to shift some money into weakness in cyclicals (not yet) and out of overpriced Internet stocks. And no, we're not particularly bullish on a host of old-era stocks, but are noting that selling will be exhausted there earlier than analysts on a new tear to proclaim how this is probably forecasting a recession in the second half of 2000. Of course it may be; but guess what? If it is then the market will be going up as it bridges-the-gap of a slowdown in anticipation of the next upward cycle. Trouble is, if this is going to be secular (not the norm right here) then things will be much worse; so we'd not get too excited about that as yet candidly...
...Again; we are targeting severe weakness in the first half of the year for buying, it matters really a little bit only as to whether a slowdown becomes a recession (surprisingly, it might not do that) as the year goes on; but does impact the sustainability of the forthcoming rally ahead of Elections of course from lower levels, as may be ascertained over time...
...Expecting the Senior Averages to become crystallized in downward price behavior in February in the wake of a temporary run-up of an extremely crucial nature, which was a relatively complex (but valid) determination predating our forecast run-up from January 31 into the DMZ highs in the vicinity of March S&P 1446-48 this week, we have been essentially better-than-seamlessly short from that price area; clearly noted as an important sort of an "island" hanging above the market, and unable to bring in new buyers, despite what was a temporary unsustainable breakout effort...
...in any event, despite the cynicism that perceives Internets impervious to decline (we think that's already proven, that they're not), we are looking for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to come somewhat back down the barber pole, even if it's not shaved as dramatically as have been Senior Averages of late. We do not expect this to all happen at once, and preliminarily expect many technicians (who as recently as today have not acknowledged the decline) to sell/short into weakness, just a kind of setup for a rebound ahead of the Expiration, although we ultimate should go lower later. This means they shave the top of the head, and don't catch the sides until the next visit; so to speak. But eventually retracements should be quite notable up and then down the barber pole...
...In summary . . . the hotline, after decent calls considering the volatility, remains short overnight in front of what we suspect will be a continued effort to shift into techs from cyclicals by funds, as they desperately try to forestall what we hope is not the inevitable, via a turnaround early in the new week. The retention of the intraday short is primarily for precautionary purposes right here, as we're not particularly looking to short Monday, but to spot a place for transitory exhaustion. If things are more negative than that, fine, we'll try to identify that as best possible, since we think it's got more downside over time anyway, but ideally not immediately...Against the backdrop of unaddressed greater stock market corrective action, we're looking for at least one turnaround effort, after a probable lower effort come Monday. The S&P premium was not trimmed at the very end, an indication that pro's are also positioning for a rebound effort soon even though it may fail later.
der NM wird dahin gehen, wohin die NASDAQ geht...
Gruss
Svavenger
Aus dem Daily Briefing von Gene Inger (www.ingerletter.com):
...Further, now everybody can measure Dow Industrials 9000 or so, as have we for months. And of course they'll not consider that the smart move might be to shift some money into weakness in cyclicals (not yet) and out of overpriced Internet stocks. And no, we're not particularly bullish on a host of old-era stocks, but are noting that selling will be exhausted there earlier than analysts on a new tear to proclaim how this is probably forecasting a recession in the second half of 2000. Of course it may be; but guess what? If it is then the market will be going up as it bridges-the-gap of a slowdown in anticipation of the next upward cycle. Trouble is, if this is going to be secular (not the norm right here) then things will be much worse; so we'd not get too excited about that as yet candidly...
...Again; we are targeting severe weakness in the first half of the year for buying, it matters really a little bit only as to whether a slowdown becomes a recession (surprisingly, it might not do that) as the year goes on; but does impact the sustainability of the forthcoming rally ahead of Elections of course from lower levels, as may be ascertained over time...
...Expecting the Senior Averages to become crystallized in downward price behavior in February in the wake of a temporary run-up of an extremely crucial nature, which was a relatively complex (but valid) determination predating our forecast run-up from January 31 into the DMZ highs in the vicinity of March S&P 1446-48 this week, we have been essentially better-than-seamlessly short from that price area; clearly noted as an important sort of an "island" hanging above the market, and unable to bring in new buyers, despite what was a temporary unsustainable breakout effort...
...in any event, despite the cynicism that perceives Internets impervious to decline (we think that's already proven, that they're not), we are looking for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to come somewhat back down the barber pole, even if it's not shaved as dramatically as have been Senior Averages of late. We do not expect this to all happen at once, and preliminarily expect many technicians (who as recently as today have not acknowledged the decline) to sell/short into weakness, just a kind of setup for a rebound ahead of the Expiration, although we ultimate should go lower later. This means they shave the top of the head, and don't catch the sides until the next visit; so to speak. But eventually retracements should be quite notable up and then down the barber pole...
...In summary . . . the hotline, after decent calls considering the volatility, remains short overnight in front of what we suspect will be a continued effort to shift into techs from cyclicals by funds, as they desperately try to forestall what we hope is not the inevitable, via a turnaround early in the new week. The retention of the intraday short is primarily for precautionary purposes right here, as we're not particularly looking to short Monday, but to spot a place for transitory exhaustion. If things are more negative than that, fine, we'll try to identify that as best possible, since we think it's got more downside over time anyway, but ideally not immediately...Against the backdrop of unaddressed greater stock market corrective action, we're looking for at least one turnaround effort, after a probable lower effort come Monday. The S&P premium was not trimmed at the very end, an indication that pro's are also positioning for a rebound effort soon even though it may fail later.
der NM wird dahin gehen, wohin die NASDAQ geht...
Gruss
Svavenger
