Technically . . . an "island" commonly is the kind of event where you gap-up one day, close hard down, and then the next day open down, even if there's a subsequent structural rebound coming. The definition of such things is subject to interpretation by anyone of course, and we don't read stock market books; never have since school daze..never will. (Probably could write one though.) And there are other possible longer-term (though tougher to identify) potential patterns going on.
A gap down in the morning would be the kind of thing that those who function rigidly (looking for a signpost or indicator), would take as a preliminary "confirmation" of a plain old reversal, so thus sell into weakness essentially. We think that's ludicrous, as that plays into the hands of specialist and market makers, who will likely (again, this is barring departures from the norm as we see it) tend to stop feeding stock out into a down-gap, but start necessarily accumulating it. That's how we came to the forecast of a down-up-down week overall (allowing for the false start rally), which might have trouble becoming an orthodox Tuesday turnaround (though it would try) because of a Greenspan testimony, which complicates matters for traders trying to handle typical pattern flow.
Of course the other pattern prospect is an orthodox head & shoulders top, which would include in the S&P, much of the action through November, December and January, and would drag-out for a few more weeks. This is possible, though the liquidity flow may dry up more rapidly in this situation, as most reinvestment money seasonally has already been designated, which is very much why we thought the first break of the New Year wouldn't be particularly successful, but the ensuing one had greater chance. And that of course is this ongoing breakdown. Nevertheless, in an era where few know what an inverted yield curve is, or care about security analysis, or tend to suffer paralysis when it comes to doing anything other than buying all dips, it's impossible to unequivocally state the market should plunge uninterrupted, nor should it anyway, quite frankly.
(www.ingerletter.com)
Gruss
Scavenger