Wenn es interessiert, ein Ausschitt aus Gene Inger´s Daily Briefing von gestern abend:
Technically . . . despite the seesaw market action once again today, nothing really is changed; with the area around 1440 on the March S&P still resistance (or a frantic inflection point where a slew of traders runs for cover, and then the market comes back down), and the 1410 area as key short-term support; while the mid 1420's have established themselves as interim daily supports.
Break the 1440's as attempted today (and likely again tomorrow) and you'd likely have simply an unsustainable rally that would fold prior to the FOMC meeting, but if it occurs after the meeting it would have a chance of being a powerful yearend upside affair; while penetrating beneath those lower levels, and you'd likely affirm the overall rebound as over, with an attack forthwith on 1390. In this case, because the market is desperately trying to extend things to the upside, we'd have to assume that a break of the mid 1420's would almost inherently point towards a trend failure.
As far as those looking at the Dow Industrials as an indicator; we think that's ridiculous outside of the obvious mass psychology impact. The majority of investors in this era is looking at where the action is, which is the NASDAQ, and the even stronger Nasdaq 100 (NDX), where most of our stocks for the entire decade are domiciled. Arbitrary decision-making on the Dow breaking to the upside or the downside, are not only dangerous in our view, but contrary to how markets will normally work. And in that respect, this is still a somewhat normal market. To buy a breakout is to risk buying the top of the thrust in this arena; although if there's a time of year seasonally it is going to have a shot at working, that of course is a yearend rally affair (if this year gets just that).
Technically . . . despite the seesaw market action once again today, nothing really is changed; with the area around 1440 on the March S&P still resistance (or a frantic inflection point where a slew of traders runs for cover, and then the market comes back down), and the 1410 area as key short-term support; while the mid 1420's have established themselves as interim daily supports.
Break the 1440's as attempted today (and likely again tomorrow) and you'd likely have simply an unsustainable rally that would fold prior to the FOMC meeting, but if it occurs after the meeting it would have a chance of being a powerful yearend upside affair; while penetrating beneath those lower levels, and you'd likely affirm the overall rebound as over, with an attack forthwith on 1390. In this case, because the market is desperately trying to extend things to the upside, we'd have to assume that a break of the mid 1420's would almost inherently point towards a trend failure.
As far as those looking at the Dow Industrials as an indicator; we think that's ridiculous outside of the obvious mass psychology impact. The majority of investors in this era is looking at where the action is, which is the NASDAQ, and the even stronger Nasdaq 100 (NDX), where most of our stocks for the entire decade are domiciled. Arbitrary decision-making on the Dow breaking to the upside or the downside, are not only dangerous in our view, but contrary to how markets will normally work. And in that respect, this is still a somewhat normal market. To buy a breakout is to risk buying the top of the thrust in this arena; although if there's a time of year seasonally it is going to have a shot at working, that of course is a yearend rally affair (if this year gets just that).
