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Konsumentenindex nicht um 14.30??? o.T.
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Zugriffe: 542 / Heute: 1
NOV.28
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort index, based on these gauges, stands at -2 on its scale of +100 to -100. It's fallen sharply this year, including a steep decline late last winter, when the current recession now officially began.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (or NBER), declared Monday that the economy fell into recession last March after a decade of growth. The ABCNEWS/Money Index plummeted just at that time, from +20 on Feb. 11 to +4 on March 25, a 16-point drop. The index recorded a similar drop at the start of the last recession in July 1990, when it fell by 13 points.
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort index, based on these gauges, stands at -2 on its scale of +100 to -100. It's fallen sharply this year, including a steep decline late last winter, when the current recession now officially began.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (or NBER), declared Monday that the economy fell into recession last March after a decade of growth. The ABCNEWS/Money Index plummeted just at that time, from +20 on Feb. 11 to +4 on March 25, a 16-point drop. The index recorded a similar drop at the start of the last recession in July 1990, when it fell by 13 points.
der heutige ABC findet sowieso nur wenig Beachtung, aber die US-Bürger schätzen ihre Finanzlage als gut ein.
www.boerse-go.de
www.boerse-go.de
Datum: 28.11. 14:43 Konsumentenvertrauen: Widersprüchliche Daten
Gestern verursachte der viel beachtete Conference Board Bericht zu Konsumentenvertrauen, der überraschenderweise fiel für Verunsicherung (BoerseGo berichtete). So würde sich immer mehr die Angst vor dem Verlust des Arbeitsplatzes bemerkbar machen.
In der wöchentlichen weniger beachteten Befragung durch ABC News ergibt sich jedoch ein etwas anderes Bild. Der Indexstand fiel in der Vorwoche von -5 auf -2 (Range:+100 bis -100), die Prozentzahl der Befragten mit einer guten Meinung von der Wirtschaftsentwicklung nahm um 1% auf 36% zu. Der Kaufklima Paramenter erhöhte sich von 45% auf 48%. Sogar 63% der Befragten bezeichneten ihre persönliche finanzielle Situation als exzellent oder gut, in der Vorwoche waren es noch 62% der Befragten.
© Godmode-Trader.de
Gestern verursachte der viel beachtete Conference Board Bericht zu Konsumentenvertrauen, der überraschenderweise fiel für Verunsicherung (BoerseGo berichtete). So würde sich immer mehr die Angst vor dem Verlust des Arbeitsplatzes bemerkbar machen.
In der wöchentlichen weniger beachteten Befragung durch ABC News ergibt sich jedoch ein etwas anderes Bild. Der Indexstand fiel in der Vorwoche von -5 auf -2 (Range:+100 bis -100), die Prozentzahl der Befragten mit einer guten Meinung von der Wirtschaftsentwicklung nahm um 1% auf 36% zu. Der Kaufklima Paramenter erhöhte sich von 45% auf 48%. Sogar 63% der Befragten bezeichneten ihre persönliche finanzielle Situation als exzellent oder gut, in der Vorwoche waren es noch 62% der Befragten.
© Godmode-Trader.de
Obwohl der Index ständig fällt, geben sie trotzdem einfach immer mehr aus...
Wednesday November 28, 8:50 am Eastern Time
Forbes.com
The Consumer Confidence Numbers Game
By Dan Ackman
Share prices fell yesterday, and when that happens there has to be a reason. Most of the
answer folks on Wall Street cited the decline in consumer confidence, which, as measured by
the Conference Board, fell in November for the fifth consecutive month.
While the search for the reasons behind
one-day share price movements is
always a snipe-hunt, pinning anything real on shifts in consumer confidence
is a game of blind-man's bluff. Consumer confidence surveys measure little
and predict nothing.
Losses yesterday were modest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
110 points, or 1.10%, to end at 9,872.60. The Nasdaq Composite index
dropped a mere 0.27% and landed at 1,936, but it had been down 2% at
midday. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 was off 0.68%.
Retailers like Home Depot fell on worries of sluggish growth, but shares
of oil services companies such as Halliburton and Schlumbeger rose as
crude oil prices rebounded slightly. Computer chip stocks gained on
bullish comments from leader Intel .
Some analysts attributed the decline to a pullback from the gains over mid-September lows and concerns that prices were
running hotter than corporate earnings prospects. In other words, prices fell Nov. 27 because they rose Nov. 26.
But others cited confidence as a possible blight on the Christmas shopping season and on economic recovery in general. The
Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence fell to 82.2 in November, its lowest level in
more than seven years, compared with a downwardly revised 85.3 in October. Meanwhile, the so-called Expectations Index,
which purports to measure consumers' views of the economic future, rose from 70.7 to 74.6.
Reuters issued the traditional view on the board's survey: "Economists and policymakers closely monitor consumer confidence
because it can give hints about future consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity."
But the hint about actual spending is vague at best, something like the hint one might take from an astrologer.
In recent months, for instance, consumer spending has held strong in the face of declining confidence reports. Consumers
bought a record number of new cars and light trucks in October, increased their purchases of existing homes and spent more in
retail stores, bars and restaurants. Major retailers reported a 2.2% rise in sales last week compared with the same period last
year, according to the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg. The retailers' gain was the smallest in five years, but the
direction is up, not down. Thus, while consumers are, it seems, telling the Conference Board they are less confident, they are
acting more confident.
"There is a very clear lack of correlation between consumer confidence and consumer spending," says Carl Steidtmann, chief
economist for Deloitte Research, who has studied the data over the last several decades. "October is just a great example of
that with strong home sales and auto sales."
The Conference Board says the confidence level is the lowest since 1994. But in 1994, the economy was in the beginning of a
boom. From mid-1994 to mid-1995, gross domestic product grew by a healthy 4.4% and personal consumption rose by 4%.
Confidence was still down, probably as an artifact of the early 1990s recession. "It's a lagging indicator, not a leading
indicator," Steidtmann says.
Wednesday November 28, 8:50 am Eastern Time
Forbes.com
The Consumer Confidence Numbers Game
By Dan Ackman
Share prices fell yesterday, and when that happens there has to be a reason. Most of the
answer folks on Wall Street cited the decline in consumer confidence, which, as measured by
the Conference Board, fell in November for the fifth consecutive month.
While the search for the reasons behind
one-day share price movements is
always a snipe-hunt, pinning anything real on shifts in consumer confidence
is a game of blind-man's bluff. Consumer confidence surveys measure little
and predict nothing.
Losses yesterday were modest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
110 points, or 1.10%, to end at 9,872.60. The Nasdaq Composite index
dropped a mere 0.27% and landed at 1,936, but it had been down 2% at
midday. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 was off 0.68%.
Retailers like Home Depot fell on worries of sluggish growth, but shares
of oil services companies such as Halliburton and Schlumbeger rose as
crude oil prices rebounded slightly. Computer chip stocks gained on
bullish comments from leader Intel .
Some analysts attributed the decline to a pullback from the gains over mid-September lows and concerns that prices were
running hotter than corporate earnings prospects. In other words, prices fell Nov. 27 because they rose Nov. 26.
But others cited confidence as a possible blight on the Christmas shopping season and on economic recovery in general. The
Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence fell to 82.2 in November, its lowest level in
more than seven years, compared with a downwardly revised 85.3 in October. Meanwhile, the so-called Expectations Index,
which purports to measure consumers' views of the economic future, rose from 70.7 to 74.6.
Reuters issued the traditional view on the board's survey: "Economists and policymakers closely monitor consumer confidence
because it can give hints about future consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity."
But the hint about actual spending is vague at best, something like the hint one might take from an astrologer.
In recent months, for instance, consumer spending has held strong in the face of declining confidence reports. Consumers
bought a record number of new cars and light trucks in October, increased their purchases of existing homes and spent more in
retail stores, bars and restaurants. Major retailers reported a 2.2% rise in sales last week compared with the same period last
year, according to the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg. The retailers' gain was the smallest in five years, but the
direction is up, not down. Thus, while consumers are, it seems, telling the Conference Board they are less confident, they are
acting more confident.
"There is a very clear lack of correlation between consumer confidence and consumer spending," says Carl Steidtmann, chief
economist for Deloitte Research, who has studied the data over the last several decades. "October is just a great example of
that with strong home sales and auto sales."
The Conference Board says the confidence level is the lowest since 1994. But in 1994, the economy was in the beginning of a
boom. From mid-1994 to mid-1995, gross domestic product grew by a healthy 4.4% and personal consumption rose by 4%.
Confidence was still down, probably as an artifact of the early 1990s recession. "It's a lagging indicator, not a leading
indicator," Steidtmann says.
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