Ariba NASDAQ: ARBA $34.06
Buy
Eric Upin, Business-to-Business eCommerce
"Notwithstanding concerns over a slowdown in IT spending, we expect another strong quarter from
Ariba when it reports FQ1:01 results on January 11 - with potential upside to our top- and bottom-line
estimates. Based on our channel checks, we believe Ariba’s core business, while undergoing some
change, remains in solid shape today. A host of factors have contributed to the stock’s significant
sell-off and will be key issues for the stock in conjunction with the company’s earnings release on
Thursday. The real issues moving forward for the stock in preparation for the company’s earnings
release on Thursday are: management’s outlook and visibility moving into the first half of 2001, quality
of FQ1 numbers, our confidence level in raising estimates and the steps taken to mitigate some of
the company-specific risks, and additional evidence of the impact of a cooling economy on B2B
spending. The above issues should be considered against the backdrop of the stock’s recent decline.
As a result of the inter-locking concerns over a slowdown in IT spending, new risks to the Ariba story
and valuation, we believe the stock’s recent volatility is likely to continue. Even with these challenges
ahead, we continue to believe Ariba is well-positioned to be one of the leading and durable B2B
names over the next several years. We maintain our Buy rating on Ariba at this time."
Commerce One, Inc.
NASDAQ: CMRC $18.56
Buy
Eric Upin, Business-to-Business eCommerce
"Contrary to speculation earlier in the quarter, we believe Commerce One is on track to post another
solid quarter with potential for upside on the top- and bottom-line," said Upin. "We are projecting
$176.0 million in revenue - representing 56% sequential and 942% yr/yr growth - and ($0.07) in
operating EPS. In late October, the company delivered 42% upside to our estimates by reporting
$112.7 million in revenue - representing 80% sequential growth and 987% year/year - with a 58/42
license and services mix. Commerce One plans to release Q4:00 results on Thursday, January 18.
While we believe the company successfully closed several major deals in the quarter and is
beginning to see more meaningful transaction volumes at some of its mega-exchanges, we believe
select areas of the business may be slowing. Even though we remain comfortable with Q4:00
estimates, we believe Commerce One increasingly faces a set of company-specific and
market-related challenges that will continue to serve as a near-term cloud over the stock, including:
the impact of a slowing economy on new and existing B2B initiatives, a range of company-specific
risks, and continued valuation compression. In light of the macro-economic and a set of
company-specific risks that we feel may adversely impact Commerce One more than other leading
B2B names, we are assuming a neutral to near-term cautious outlook on the stock at this time. For
the stock to make its next meaningful move, we believe Commerce One will need to show increased
signs of: driving strong license growth as the market for consortia and dot.com marketplaces dries
up, accelerating adoption of existing marketplaces and accompanying network services revenue
growth, successfully going to market with SAP - evidenced by increased penetration of the SAP
installed base, and integrating AppNet and driving a profitable professional services business unit.
With these challenges and risks ahead of the company, we believe the stock’s near-term upside is
limited, but maintain our Buy rating at this time."
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