Historical S&P500 falls from peak to trough

  Feb-1937  Apr-1938        14     -45.4     -45.8§
  Apr-1946  Jun-1949        38     -25.1     -42.4§
  Jul-1957  Dec-1957         5     -16.9     -17.7§
  Dec-1961  Jun-1962         6     -22.5     -23.0§
  Jan-1966  Oct-1966         9     -17.3     -19.9§
  Jan-1973  Dec-1974        23     -43.4     -53.4§
  Nov-1980  Jul-1982        20     -19.4     -29.2§
  Aug-1987  Dec-1987         4     -26.8     -27.7§
  Jun-1990  Oct-1990         4     -14.8     -17.0§
  Apr-2000  Sep-2001        18     -31.3     -38.2§
   Average                                   -32.6§-35.1

Retail sales Employment Ind production New home sales GDP
(val, % month) (change) (% month)        (% month)  (%qtr, annualised)

Central view
July 2001 0.2  13,000 -0.1 4.9
          §
August 2001 0.3 -113,000 -0.8 -0.3

September 2001 0.2 -100,000 -0.5 -0.2 -1.5

October 2001 -0.5 -100,000 -0.5 0.0
          §
November 2001 -0.5 -100,000 -0.5 0.0

December 2001 -0.5 -100,000 -0.5 0.0 -3.0


mag noch irgendjemand die pessimistischen oder optimistischen ausblicke sehen, oder soll ich euch das lieber ersparen?  

Retail sales Employment Ind production New home sales GDP
(val, % month) (change) (% month) (% month)  (% qtr, annualised)

Optimistic view
July 2001 0.2 13,000 -0.1 4.9
          §
August 2001 0.3 -113,000 -0.8 1.1

September 2001 0.4 -50,000 0.0 1.1 -1.0

October 2001 0.0 0 0.0 1.00

November 2001 0.0 0 0.0 0.0
          §
December 2001 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Retail sales Employment Ind production New home sales GDP
(val, % month) (change) (% month) (% month) (% qtr, annualised)

Pessimistic view
July 2001 0.2 13,000 -0.1 4.9
          §
August 2001 0.3 -113,000 -0.8 -2.0
          §
September 2001 -0.3 -180,000 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0

October 2001 -0.6 -200,000 -0.6 -1.5
          §
November 2001 -0.6 -200,000 -0.6 -1.5
          §
December 2001 -0.6 -200,000 -0.6 -1.5 -4.5