London, Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar, little changed, is on track for its first losing week in six against the yen amid concern U.S. figures later today will show the biggest job losses since 1983, more evidence the economy is slipping into recession.
``The U.S. economy is in recession right now,'' said Dale Thomas, a director at Rothschild Asset Management, which oversees about $43 billion. He sees unemployment rising to 6.5 percent and the dollar weakening in coming months.
The U.S. economy probably shed 300,000 jobs last month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That reflects the damage to the economy from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and slumping corporate profits, analysts said.
The unemployment rate probably rose to 5.2 percent in October, the highest level since March 1997, according to
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due at 1:30 p.m. London time. d.h.um 14Uhr 30 hier
After seeing third-quarter gross domestic product fall for the first-time in eight years and the National Association of Purchasing Management index fall to a 10-year low, investors should be prepared to see payrolls plunge by 310,000 and the jobless rate rise from 4.9 percent to 5.2 percent, the highest since the spring of 1997.
"It's going to get ugly," said Avery Shenfeld, economist at CIBC World Markets.
The report is the last major economic release before Federal Reserve's policymakers meet on Tuesday to discuss cutting interest rates for the 10th time this year. Most observers expect the Federal Open Market Committee to cut the federal funds rate by at least a quarter percentage point to 2.25 percent.
"There's no reason to think the payroll numbers will be warm and fuzzy," said Paul Kasriel, economist at Northern Trust.
In September, firms cut 199,000 jobs, but because of the timing of the survey, the data didn't include any impact of the Sept. 11 attacks. "The October report will bear the full brunt" of the layoffs, Slifer said.
Job losses should continue for several more months, at least, if only because many of the corporate layoffs after Sept. 11 won't be implemented for 60 days or more, Shenfeld said.
"The good news is that a V-shaped recovery is likely," said Lehman's Slifer. "The bad news is that the economy is still very much on the downside of the 'V.'"
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday to discuss the 10th interest rate cut of the year. Most observers expect at least a 25-basis-point cut to 2.25 percent, but sentiment has been growing for a 50 basis-point move.
Friday's release of the October employment report will likely settle the issue in the minds of Fed policymakers.
NAPM's new orders index fell to 38.3 in October from 50.3 in September, which had been seen as a hopeful sign of recovery in the sector.
The production index dropped to 40.9 from 51.3 in September.
Employment fell to 35.1 from 41.2.
Prices paid fell to 32.5 from 36.3.
Chief executives at manufacturing firms don't expect a recovery before the summer of 2002 and a weak one at that, according to a survey released by the National Association of Manufacturers.
bei cbs.marketwatch.com
``The U.S. economy is in recession right now,'' said Dale Thomas, a director at Rothschild Asset Management, which oversees about $43 billion. He sees unemployment rising to 6.5 percent and the dollar weakening in coming months.
The U.S. economy probably shed 300,000 jobs last month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That reflects the damage to the economy from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and slumping corporate profits, analysts said.
The unemployment rate probably rose to 5.2 percent in October, the highest level since March 1997, according to
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due at 1:30 p.m. London time. d.h.um 14Uhr 30 hier
After seeing third-quarter gross domestic product fall for the first-time in eight years and the National Association of Purchasing Management index fall to a 10-year low, investors should be prepared to see payrolls plunge by 310,000 and the jobless rate rise from 4.9 percent to 5.2 percent, the highest since the spring of 1997.
"It's going to get ugly," said Avery Shenfeld, economist at CIBC World Markets.
The report is the last major economic release before Federal Reserve's policymakers meet on Tuesday to discuss cutting interest rates for the 10th time this year. Most observers expect the Federal Open Market Committee to cut the federal funds rate by at least a quarter percentage point to 2.25 percent.
"There's no reason to think the payroll numbers will be warm and fuzzy," said Paul Kasriel, economist at Northern Trust.
In September, firms cut 199,000 jobs, but because of the timing of the survey, the data didn't include any impact of the Sept. 11 attacks. "The October report will bear the full brunt" of the layoffs, Slifer said.
Job losses should continue for several more months, at least, if only because many of the corporate layoffs after Sept. 11 won't be implemented for 60 days or more, Shenfeld said.
"The good news is that a V-shaped recovery is likely," said Lehman's Slifer. "The bad news is that the economy is still very much on the downside of the 'V.'"
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday to discuss the 10th interest rate cut of the year. Most observers expect at least a 25-basis-point cut to 2.25 percent, but sentiment has been growing for a 50 basis-point move.
Friday's release of the October employment report will likely settle the issue in the minds of Fed policymakers.
NAPM's new orders index fell to 38.3 in October from 50.3 in September, which had been seen as a hopeful sign of recovery in the sector.
The production index dropped to 40.9 from 51.3 in September.
Employment fell to 35.1 from 41.2.
Prices paid fell to 32.5 from 36.3.
Chief executives at manufacturing firms don't expect a recovery before the summer of 2002 and a weak one at that, according to a survey released by the National Association of Manufacturers.
bei cbs.marketwatch.com
