Global: Productivity Endgame? S. Roach
hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040917-fri.html#anchor3
Auszug:
Could it be that the days of rapid productivity growth in the US economy are finally nearing an end?
For starters, incoming data point to anemic productivity growth in the current quarter. By our latest estimates, GDP growth -- a good proxy for the output that drives the numerator in the productivity equation -- appears to be rising at about a 4% annual rate in 3Q04. At the same time, hours worked in the private economy -- a good proxy for the labor input that shows up in the denominator in the productivity equation -- is on track to rise at about a 3.25% annual rate. Moreover, with the headcount of self-employed workers likely to increase at close to a 15% annual rate in the current quarter, there is good reason to believe that growth in total hours worked could easily be in excess of 3.5%. Consequently, the gap between output growth and the increase in labor input -- a close approximation of productivity growth -- appears to be no higher than 0.5% in 3Q04. If that estimate is even close to being accurate, it would mark the weakest productivity gain of this recovery -- well below average annualized gains of 4.5% recorded over the first 11 quarters of this upturn.
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By sector, the bulk of the slowing appears to be concentrated in the services sector. At least, that’s the implication I draw from labor market data that are pointing to relatively brisk increases in hours worked in information services, professional and business services, and the education and healthcare sectors. By contrast, the manufacturing productivity story remains impressive. The manufacturing piece of industrial production appears to be on track for a 6.0% annualized growth rate in the current period, well in excess of the 2.8% annualized increase in factory hours worked. Given the intrinsic labor-intensive bias of white-collar functions, the services sector is usually the first to fade on the productivity curve. Incoming data do little to dispel that historical pattern
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There is deep conviction in policy circles, financial markets, and the academic community that America’s newfound productivity prowess is here to stay. My point is that that the productivity miracles of the past eight years may simply not be sustainable. To the extent they reflect transitional adjustments of unusually aggressive cost cutting and the reconfiguration of business technology platforms, the day will come when the bulk of that transition has been accomplished. There is good reason to believe that such a day could now be close at hand. Maybe, just maybe, the US productivity story is finally coming out of the clouds and nearing the end of what has been a glorious eight-year upsurge. For policy makers and investors leaning the other way, that could be a real shocker.
Das Ende von dem "Produktivitätwunder" in den USA?
hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040917-fri.html#anchor3
Auszug:
Could it be that the days of rapid productivity growth in the US economy are finally nearing an end?
For starters, incoming data point to anemic productivity growth in the current quarter. By our latest estimates, GDP growth -- a good proxy for the output that drives the numerator in the productivity equation -- appears to be rising at about a 4% annual rate in 3Q04. At the same time, hours worked in the private economy -- a good proxy for the labor input that shows up in the denominator in the productivity equation -- is on track to rise at about a 3.25% annual rate. Moreover, with the headcount of self-employed workers likely to increase at close to a 15% annual rate in the current quarter, there is good reason to believe that growth in total hours worked could easily be in excess of 3.5%. Consequently, the gap between output growth and the increase in labor input -- a close approximation of productivity growth -- appears to be no higher than 0.5% in 3Q04. If that estimate is even close to being accurate, it would mark the weakest productivity gain of this recovery -- well below average annualized gains of 4.5% recorded over the first 11 quarters of this upturn.
......................
By sector, the bulk of the slowing appears to be concentrated in the services sector. At least, that’s the implication I draw from labor market data that are pointing to relatively brisk increases in hours worked in information services, professional and business services, and the education and healthcare sectors. By contrast, the manufacturing productivity story remains impressive. The manufacturing piece of industrial production appears to be on track for a 6.0% annualized growth rate in the current period, well in excess of the 2.8% annualized increase in factory hours worked. Given the intrinsic labor-intensive bias of white-collar functions, the services sector is usually the first to fade on the productivity curve. Incoming data do little to dispel that historical pattern
....................
There is deep conviction in policy circles, financial markets, and the academic community that America’s newfound productivity prowess is here to stay. My point is that that the productivity miracles of the past eight years may simply not be sustainable. To the extent they reflect transitional adjustments of unusually aggressive cost cutting and the reconfiguration of business technology platforms, the day will come when the bulk of that transition has been accomplished. There is good reason to believe that such a day could now be close at hand. Maybe, just maybe, the US productivity story is finally coming out of the clouds and nearing the end of what has been a glorious eight-year upsurge. For policy makers and investors leaning the other way, that could be a real shocker.
Das Ende von dem "Produktivitätwunder" in den USA?
