Fed`s Strategy

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Fed`s Strategy

 
22.08.07 08:41

Fed's Strategy of Increasing Liquidity Survives for a Third Day By Craig Torres Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve's strategy of increasing liquidity rather than resorting to a cut in the benchmark interest rate survived a third day. Yields on Treasury bills rose yesterday after the New York Fed lowered the cost of borrowing securities from its own portfolio to ease a shortage in the market. The action followed a reduction in the Fed's rate on direct loans to banks on Aug. 17, the impact of which officials said they need time to assess. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke wants to avoid an emergency easing of monetary policy, contrasting with predecessor Alan Greenspan, who cut the federal funds rate target three times in 1998 after the collapse of Long Term Capital Management LP. Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said yesterday that policy must be guided by the outlook for economic growth and prices, not entirely by markets. ``We did use the fed funds rate and that may have been a mistake,'' said former Fed Vice Chairman Alice Rivlin, who voted for the 1998 rate cuts. ``It might have been smarter to try what they are trying.'' Lacker said in a speech to a conference in Charlotte, North Carolina yesterday that while the credit crunch and gyrations in financial markets has the potential to hurt growth, signs so far indicate business and consumer spending will continue. In response to a question, Lacker also underscored the Federal Open Market Committee's determination not to insure poor investments with a cut in the federal funds rate. `Our Responsibility' ``The Federal Reserve isn't responsible for the size of credit spreads,'' he said. ``We leave those to be market determined. Our responsibility and what we are capable of influencing on a sustained basis is inflation and growth.'' After the rate cuts in 1998, the economy strengthened and stock prices soared, Rivlin noted, leaving the Fed open to criticism that the reductions were a mistake. Rivlin is now director of the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution in Washington. The Fed's current strategy showed some signs of success yesterday as yields on three-month Treasury bills climbed the most since 2000 and those on commercial paper backed by assets such as mortgages slipped. The three-month bill yield increased 0.52 percentage point to 3.61 percent late yesterday as demand for the shortest-dated government debt waned. Top-rated asset-backed commercial paper maturing in one day yielded 5.92 percent, down from 5.99 percent, posting the first drop in three trading days. ``The flight to safety may be diminishing a bit,'' said Holly Liss, a bond saleswoman in Chicago at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. ``We're seeing more calming of the market as T-bill rates come back to normal.'' Jury Still Out Lacker said the ``jury is still out'' on whether the Fed has done enough to improve trading in the $1.1 trillion market for asset-backed commercial paper. Investors and economists still bet that Bernanke will have to reduce the benchmark lending rate between banks, now at 5.25 percent, by at least a quarter point on or before the Sept. 18 meeting. ``Financial volatility and the seizing up of credit markets raises the probability'' of a recession, said Steven Einhorn, vice chairman of New York hedge fund Omega Partners Inc. ``The Fed needs to be proactive and not wait.'' Einhorn said slowing inflation and growth of around 2 percent to 2.5 percent give the Fed room to cut interest rates. `All of the Tools' Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Bernanke agreed to use ``all of the tools at his disposal'' to restore stability in markets roiled by the subprime mortgage crisis. He added that he didn't ask Bernanke to cut the federal funds rate and that the Fed chief didn't pledge to do so. Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat who is seeking his party's presidential nomination, said banks should take advantage of lower borrowing costs at the discount window. He spoke after meeting with Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Yesterday, the New York Fed reduced the so-called minimum fee rate that bond dealers pay to borrow its Treasuries to 0.5 percent from 1 percent. ``We are doing it to provide additional liquidity to the Treasury financing market,'' said Andrew Williams, a spokesman for the New York Fed. He said the rate was the lowest in the history of the program, which has existed in its current form since 1999. The central bank on Aug. 17 cut the so-called discount rate half a percentage point to 5.75 percent to direct more cash to companies starved for short-term financing while avoiding an emergency reduction in its broader lending-rate target. Banks can borrow at the discount rate with a wide variety of collateral, including everything from mortgages -- the market that sparked the credit crunch after defaults rose to the highest in five years -- to municipal bonds. Lacker told risk managers yesterday that the Fed's district banks would even accept boat loans as collateral. It's up to the banks to establish a value for the assets as they make the loan, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 22, 2007 00:15 EDT

 

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Japan Trade Surplus Narrows as Export Growth Slow

 
22.08.07 08:45
Japan's Trade Surplus Narrows as Export Growth Slows (Update3)

By Lily Nonomiya

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's trade surplus narrowed more than economists forecast as automobile exports cooled, heightening concern that growth in the world's second-largest economy may slow.

The surplus shrank 21.1 percent in July from a year earlier to 671.2 billion yen ($5.9 billion), the first drop since January, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 844 billion yen.

Export growth to the U.S. slowed to 1.3 percent, a fifth of the pace of the previous month, underlining concern that a slump in the U.S. housing market is damping demand for Japanese cars and electronics. The yen's 3.7 percent gain against the dollar this month could further depress sales overseas.

``With the U.S. housing loan problem, it's unavoidable that U.S. economic growth would be somewhat affected and the pace of Japan's export recovery will slow,'' said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The yen's strength will affect profits of Japanese exporters.''

Exports rose 11.7 percent to 7.06 trillion yen last month, less than the 13 percent expected by economists and 16 percent in June. Growth in shipments to Europe and China also slowed.

Imports climbed 16.9 percent to a record 6.39 trillion yen, as a weaker yen in July drove energy costs higher. July oil prices in yen terms were 8.7 percent more than the same month a year earlier and the highest since September. Japan imports virtually all of its oil.

Yen's Gains

The yen traded at 114.36 per dollar at 11:48 a.m. in Tokyo from 114.33 before the report was published. It gained at least 3 percent against the 16 most-traded currencies last week, as the U.S. housing-loan crisis prompted investors to reduce risk.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.2 percent.

Shipments to Europe rose 13.1 percent in July, the slowest pace in three months, the Finance Ministry said. Exports to China gained 20.6 percent, also the weakest since April.

Growth in automobile exports halved to 12.8 percent. Shipments may have been limited by an earthquake that halted manufacturing at Riken Corp., Japan's largest maker of piston rings for engines. The government said the quake probably reduced auto exports by 40,000 and 50,000 units, less than a tenth of vehicle shipments.

Honda Motor Co.'s car exports declined for the first time in more than a year in June, according to the most recent figures. Japan's automakers get as much as 65 percent of their operating profit from North America.

Electronic Parts

Shipments of electronic parts and devices rose 7.9 percent, today's report showed, little changed from a 7.7 percent gain in June. Advantest Corp., the world's largest maker of memory-chip testers, said profit for the three months ended June 30 slid 13 percent as chipmakers pared spending.

Waning export growth restricted Japan's economic expansion to an annual 0.5 percent pace in the second quarter, less than a sixth of the 3.2 percent in the first three months.

The subprime-loan problem is weighing on growth in the U.S., which expanded at an average of 2 percent in the first half of 2007 compared with 3.6 percent in the same period a year earlier.

``Prolonged market turmoil could hurt consumer sentiment in the U.S., which would have a considerable impact on exports,'' said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

Uncertainty over how far the housing slump and market tumult could spread will probably prompt the Bank of Japan to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate at 0.5 percent at a two-day meeting starting today. Only three of 46 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect a rate increase at the meeting.

Bank of Japan

``The BOJ won't want to do anything to spur the yen higher,'' said Junichi Makino, a senior economist at Daiwa Research Institute in Tokyo. ``They won't want to raise rates until they can confirm that markets have calmed down.''

Still, stocks rallied and the yen weakened following the U.S. Federal Reserve's Aug. 17 decision to cut the rate at which it lends to banks. The benchmark Topix index yesterday capped off its biggest two-day rally since 2004 on speculation the worst of the subprime crisis is over for Japanese companies.

Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said yesterday that the U.S. housing issue ``has passed its worst on the whole.''

Demand from emerging markets will probably pick up the slack from lackluster U.S. sales, Sumitomo's Muto said. Asian and emerging markets account for almost two-thirds of Japan's exports.

China's economy grew 12 percent in the second quarter, the fastest rate in 12 years, and Hong Kong expanded 6.9 percent, outpacing the 3.4 percent annualized growth in the U.S., the world's largest economy.

``U.S. exports have been a little weak, but demand from other regions has been very solid,'' said Noriaki Haseyama, an economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute. ``We expect the surplus to keep expanding as global growth fuels export demand.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at lnonomiya@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 21, 2007 22:53 EDT  
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Überblick Märkte Asien

 
22.08.07 08:54
Asian Stocks Rise for Third Day on U.S. Interest Rate Outlook

By Patrick Rial and Chen Shiyin

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for a third day on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to alleviate a credit crisis and sustain demand in the world's biggest economy.

Elpida Memory Inc. and BHP Billiton Ltd. led exporters higher. Australia's CSL Ltd., the world's second-largest maker of blood plasma products, gained after forecasting an increase in profit. Yahoo Japan Corp. jumped after Goldman, Sachs & Co. lifted its recommendation on the shares.

``There's a feeling that the Fed is trying its best to help,'' said Jay Moghe, who oversees $150 million at Opes Prime Asset Management in Singapore. ``There's also concern the underlying problem hasn't been resolved.''

Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. declined after Japan's auto exports slowed, the yen strengthened and Goldman cut its stock price estimates for the companies.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index gained 0.2 percent to 144.74 as of 2:53 p.m. in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 0.1 percent to 15,883.24. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. led Japanese lenders lower after government bond yields dropped to a six-month low.

The CSI 300 Index exceeded 5,000 for the first time in China, where the central bank yesterday said it was raising interest rates for the fourth time since March. Benchmarks gained elsewhere across the region, except in the Philippines and Taiwan.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose for a fourth day yesterday, climbing 0.1 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2 percent. U.S. 10-year notes fell for the first time in five days on concern Fed interest-rate cuts would push the dollar down and lead to faster inflation.

Samsung, CSL

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Fed chairman Ben S. Bernanke had agreed to use ``all of the tools at his disposal'' to restore stability in financial markets roiled by a subprime-mortgage crisis.

Elpida, Japan's largest memory-chip maker, advanced 4.8 percent to 4,790 yen. Samsung Electronics Co., the world's biggest chipmaker, added 0.2 percent to 593,000 won.

Chipmakers also climbed after UBS AG analyst Benjamin Reitzes said yesterday in a note that Apple Inc. may sell more than 800,000 iPhones this quarter, beating the company's goal of 730,000, as consumer demand for the device stays strong.

BHP Billiton added 0.4 percent to A$35.65, after rising 9.4 percent in the past two days. The world's biggest mining company is expected to today report that profit in the six months through June 30 increased 23 percent to a record $7.5 billion, a Bloomberg analyst survey showed.

Earnings

CSL jumped 4 percent to A$93.81. Net income may rise as much as 30 percent to A$700 million ($539 million) in the current year, Melbourne-based CSL said in a statement. The company posted a record profit of A$539 million for the year ended June 30 and plans to buy back 4.5 percent of its stock.

Toll Holdings Ltd., Australia's biggest freight company, gained 1.4 percent to A$13.70. The company said full-year profit rose 61 percent to A$263.7 million from a year earlier, after it won new customers and expanded in Asia.

PICC Property & Casualty Co., China's largest non-life insurer, climbed 1.1 percent to HK$9.33 in Hong Kong. Goldman raised its stock-price target 19 percent to $8.30 on expectations of strong underwriting profit growth.

``The negative sentiment associated with the credit crunch issue we've seen flatten out with profit results being so good,'' said Angus Gluskie, who helps manage the equivalent of about $380 million at White Funds Management in Sydney.

Yahoo Japan, the local unit of world's most-visited Internet directory, surged 5.2 percent to 38,500 yen. The company is poised to benefit from expansion of advertising related to its search engine, Natsuko Higuchi, an analyst at Goldman, wrote in a note upgrading the shares to ``buy.''

Trade Surplus Shrinks

Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker, fell 0.5 percent to 6,550 yen. Honda, the No. 2, dropped 1.6 percent to 3,610 yen. Nissan, the third largest, lost 1.9 percent to 1,103 yen.

Japan's trade surplus shrank 21.1 percent to 671.2 billion yen ($5.9 billion) in July, the finance ministry said today in Tokyo. That's less than the 844 billion yen forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. Growth in automobile exports slumped to 12.8 percent from 24.6 percent the previous month.

The yen strengthened to 114.41 against the dollar recently from 114.84 at the close of trading in Tokyo yesterday. A stronger yen decreases the value of Japanese exporters' dollar- denominated sales when converted into local currency.

Kota Yuzawa, a Tokyo-based analyst at Goldman cut his share-price estimate on all three automakers, citing a strengthening yen and the continued danger that the U.S. housing crisis will curb consumer spending.

Lower Bond Yields

``The credit squeeze triggered by the U.S. subprime problem poses two major risks for auto stocks: slowdown in U.S. auto demand and yen appreciation,'' Yuzawa wrote in a note dated yesterday.

Japanese financial shares slid after the yield on government bonds dropped to its lowest in six months, indicating the lenders will make less money on their investments.

Sumitomo Mitsui, Japan's third-largest bank, lost 2.1 percent to 881,000 yen. Millea Holdings Inc., its largest insurer by market value, slipped 2.1 percent to 4,220 yen.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond declined to as low as 1.54 percent, the lowest since Feb. 23, 2006. When bonds mature, banks are forced to re-invest in them at lower rates of return as yields drop.

Best Denki Co. surged 11 percent to 727 yen after rival Yamada Denki Co., Japan's largest consumer electronics retailer, took a 5.24 percent stake in the company. Yamada Denki added 1.2 percent to 11,500 yen.

Airlines Gain on Oil

Airlines gained after crude oil fell to the lowest since June, cutting fuel bills.

Korean Air Lines Co., South Korea's biggest carrier, rose 3.8 percent to 62,800 won. Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Asia's second-most profitable carrier, advanced 2 percent to HK$20.35. Singapore Airlines Ltd., the world's second-largest by market value, gained 1.1 percent to S$17.90.

Crude oil for October delivery declined 2 percent to $69.57 a barrel yesterday in New York. It was recently at $69.66 in after-hours trading. The September contract expired yesterday at $69.47, the lowest close since June 27.

Air New Zealand Ltd. tumbled 6.5 percent to NZ$2. The nation's largest airline is facing stiffer competition after Virgin Blue, Australia's second-biggest airline, said yesterday it will start low costs services within New Zealand.

`So Much Liquidity'

Cathay Real Estate Development Co., Taiwan's second-biggest construction company, advanced 1 percent to TT$15.50. Taipei is seeking NT$67.4 billion ($2 billion) in private investment for urban renewal projects, the China Post reported.

China Vanke Co. led the country's developers higher on speculation property demand will withstand the nation's fourth interest-rate increase since March. China Vanke, the nation's largest publicly traded developer, climbed 4 percent to 34.23 yuan. Poly Real Estate Group Co. added 1.1 percent to 77 yuan.

The People's Bank of China yesterday said it was raising the benchmark one-year lending rate 0.18 percentage point and the one-year deposit rate by 0.27 percentage point.

``The market mostly shrugged off the rate increase since there's still so much liquidity,'' said Gabriel Gondard, who manages $5 billion at Societe Generale venture Fortune SGAM Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. ``If we see several more down the line though, that'll really start to squeeze the amount of money going into stocks.''

Chinese investors have set up about 36 million accounts for trading mainland stocks and mutual funds this year, seven times more than for the whole of last year, according to the China Securities Depository & Clearing Corp.

Malaysia's Ranhill Bhd., the contractor of a $7 billion oil pipeline in the country's north, surged 21 percent, the most since June 20, to 2.62 ringgit. The company said it expects to find oil at a site in West Java, Indonesia.

To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: August 22, 2007 02:03 EDT  
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