Treasury Budget
- Importance (A-F): This release merits a D.
- Source: U.S. Treasury Department.
- Release Time: 14:00 ET, about the third week of the month for the prior month.
- Raw Data Available At: http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html.
The monthly Treasury budget data follow strong seasonal patterns which produce huge month-to-month fluctuations in the deficit. These fluctuations tell us little about long term budget trends. To the extent that the market analyses the monthly Treasury data, the focus is on year/year changes in receipts and outlays, since the data are not seasonally adjusted. Only in April, the most important month for tax inflows to the Treasury, does the market pay any attention to this report. The data can be predicted with reasonable accuracy by using daily data in the Daily Treasury Statement.
