Das Tief testen...(?)

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Das Tief testen...(?) Scavenger

Das Tief testen...(?)

 
#1
Auszug aus gene Ingers daily briefing (www.ingerletter.com) für heute:

Kurzfassung in Deutsch: Wenn alle glauben, das Tief ist gesehen, dann kann es richtig schlimm werden, wenn es beim erneuten Testen (z.Z. im Gange) nicht hält. Das wäre aber mittelfristig besser, als wenn die "Jungs" jetzt wieder eine schnelle Rally produzieren, und so die endgültige Marktbereinigung verhindern. Derzeit haben wir drei Möglichkeiten: (a) der Test geht bis 1370-80 im SP500-Future (Dez) = Retracement, dann aufwärts, (b) wir testen das letzte Tief voll (= Doppelboden, Anm. v. Scavenger), oder (c) wir machen ein neues Tief, siehe oben). Die tech. Analyse von G. Inger sagt z.Z. sowohl ein höheres Hoch als auch ein tieferes Tief voraus. Das wäre bullish, wenn das Low jetzt gleich kommt. Falls es nur ein mildes Tief wird, deutet das auf noch tiefere Tiefs in 2001 hin.
Scav

...As for further action, the next few days are extremely crucial as regards the pattern's next phase. It should be kept in mind that though we were probably among the few expecting that climactic or washout reversal a week ago (as the DJIA fell almost instantly over 400), there is a pretty wide acceptance of that being 'the bottom' out there among analysts and investors at this point. And that, as a matter of fact, is both worrisome and helpful. How so? Because if the level fails to hold on a drop, then you risk an absolutely disastrous market decline, because everyone with faith in the low (and that's almost everyone at this point) will capitulate in an orgy of renewed selling that probably would make our forecast rebound simply the prelude to an October '87 like capitulation.
Our preference is that it doesn't happen that way; though interestingly one might deduce that the bullish alternative would be a hard hammering now, which immediately reestablishes an oversold condition on a daily and weekly basis; setting up a challenge of the recent highs later this month, or in early November, but not immediately. And we haven't expected any further upside now. So, ironically the bearish alternative might be if 'the boys' cobble together yet another upside shot too fast without letting this make a natural bottom. The idea of 1370-80 being preordained as sort of a test of last week's low (after we got to 1420-30 on the automatic rally) is not cast in stone. Sure most readers understand that, but you'd be surprised that a few think the market can be defined in some precise way days or weeks in advance, and (while they shouldn't be in the market) tend to hold 'roadmaps' up as if they were somehow sacred. That smacks of 'system trading', which in our view is equally dangerous. There are no certainties in markets; only probabilities and certain benchmark or 'way points', which give some interpretative ideas as to what the outcome may be...In our view you won't have to fully test the prior lows to determine whether the market looks like it will sustain an expected contraction. So, in order to avoid absurd discussions of the market going far too low, or far too high, both of which we actually had to field in the past month of volatile big moves, we want to again mention that a) we're not particularly bullish about overall intermediate timeframes ahead as we go into 2001; b) the entire speculation here has been about a rebound (got it), a stymied rally in the old congestion zone (got that too); c) a new decline that will look the same whether it turns out to be a 'crash', or a test of the old low, or at least a partial retracement (underway now); and d) ideally a low point that results in a higher high as we work into the final weeks of this incredible year. Some of our technical work tends to suggest both a higher high as well as a lower low, which is very interesting, as it would be potentially bullish if the lower low in fact happened all at once (though would be more dramatic than our initial thinking), while if what we get is the mild version and then a higher high; possibly our work suggests lower lows in 2001...


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