Britische Immobilien - Der naechste Crash

The upmarket estate agency Knight Frank revealed that a typical country cottage with three bedrooms and one acre of land costs nearly £550,000 - around £50,000 more than the same property would have cost 12 months ago.

Such findings are fuelling fears that the housing market bubble is about to burst. Last week, a report from financial analysts Datamonitor warned of 'a threat' that a sharp fall in prices could be on the way.

Karina Purang, its author, said: 'There is a threat that it [a crash] could happen. Undoubtedly, house prices cannot keep going up for ever.'

Key workers, such as nurses, teachers and policemen, cannot afford to buy homes in 70 per cent of towns across Britain. This figure which has almost doubled from 36 per cent five years ago, according to research by the Halifax.

A typical buyer now takes out a mortgage for £150,000 with some borrowing up to nine times their salary.

"This is already slowing US growth and will inevitably hit the UK as well. When the US catches a cold we tend to catch one as well," Mr Davis adds.

Credit crunch

At the root of Mr Davis's view that the US is experiencing a credit crunch is the crisis in the sub-prime lending market.

In short, during the past few years, US banks have been busy lending increasing sums to people with poor credit ratings. Now these people are struggling and so are the lenders.
The wider US housing market is being damaged because people in debt difficulty are trying to offload their property fast and there are simply too few buyers able to get the money together to buy this glut of homes.

Increasing supply plus lower demand means falling prices.

"Things are set to get worse in the US housing market before they get better," says Ray Boulger, technical director of mortgage broker Charcol.

But what about the UK? Could there be a knock-on effect? Could we catch a cold as Mr Davis says?

"Certainly if the US economy goes into reverse and there are job losses, world economic growth and that of the UK could be affected. This could, ultimately, have a dampening effect on the UK housing market," Mr Boulger says.
"But there are lots of differences between the US and the UK, which makes a crash unlikely," he adds.

Mr Boulger points to a lack of housing supply in the UK - this is, after all, a small, densely-populated island - bolstering prices.

In addition, Mr Boulger says that UK lenders have been more prudent than their US counterparts.
"There has been some loosening of mortgage lending criteria but nothing like the US.

"People are able to get 100% mortgages or borrow four or five times their income but lenders have not offered the two together.

"If they have taken a risk in lending to someone they have looked to hedge that risk elsewhere. For example, a bank may lend five-times someone's salary but they ask that the borrower has a whopping deposit as a cushion against negative equity," Mr Boulger said.

Housing shortage?

Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis.
"It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

"As a country we are not building enough houses for the number of new households which are forming, also we have had a very benign economic backdrop of low interest rates, inflation and high employment.

"Interest rates would have to head above 7% (from the current 5.25%) for a significant number of people to start to really struggle with their mortgage and I can not see any factor which could prompt such a rise in rates," Mr Stansfield says.

But the upward move in prices can not go on and on, Mr Stansfield adds.
"I have read some predictions that prices will keep rising for the next decade or more because of lack of supply.

"However, large sections of society are already priced out of the market and at some point people are going to find half of their income going on mortgage payments and they will rightly ask themselves what is the point?"

Crunch time

Capital Economics is predicting slow price growth over the next few years but with the caution that any significant rise in interest rates could lead to a crash.

And, crucially, because inflation and wage growth is low, people's mortgage debt is being reduced far more slowly than was the case in the 1970s and 1980s.
This means that mortgage repayments will be swallowing a significant proportion of people's incomes far into the future.

"Housing market watchers always focus on the next few months, no one is looking at five years from now?
"But we are now burdened by debt for many years. If the economy worsens, a credit crunch will occur," Mr Davis says.
"I can see the current positive sentiment about housing doing a 180 degree turn.

"Buy-to-let investors will bail out or find their property taken off them. Overall house prices will fall and the number of repossessions will eclipse what occurred in the recession of then early 1990s," Mr Davis adds.
Now that would be a conversation stopper.

Story from BBC NEWS:
news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/6549299.stm

The measure is widely used by experts because if houses do not generate enough rent, then landlords will be willing to pay less for property, pulling down prices.

This indicator in Britain is now 65% above its historic average since 1970. An alternative-measure compares house prices with average annual incomes. This shows that UK prices are 45% higher than their long-term average, the OECD reported.

Ed Stansfield of research organisation Capital Economics said there are good explanations for Britain's decade-long house price surge, including lower borrowing costs and a shortage of new property on the market.

His own calculations suggest that the market is at least 15 to 20% overvalued. 'We are in for a very, very subdued picture in term of house-price inflation and housing market activity,' he said.

Despite fears for the housing market, the outlook for the UK economy remains buoyant, according to the OECD. It predicted that gross domestic product will increase by 2.7% this year, little changed from last year's healthy 2.8%. But it urged the Bank of England to be 'vigilant' following a recent surge in inflation.

The OECD also criticised Chancellor Gordon Brown for failing to do enough to rein in public spending, calling for greater restraint.

Its estimates show that the UK's deficit will be higher than any other western European country this year, as NHS budgets soar and Mr Brown struggles to control public sector pay.

The figures compare public deficits with the size of overall economies across the 30-nation OECD. In Europe only Hungary and the Czech Republic are experiencing a more dramatic deterioration in the public finances.

A Treasury spokesman said: 'As this report shows, the UK has one the fastest growing economies in the G7 this year, and is forecast to grow faster next year than any other major European economy, building on a record 58 consecutive quarters of economic growth.'

Besonders für die USA könnte ein Kappen der Kreditvergabe an Haushalte den Konsum - zusätzlich zur Krise am Häusermarkt - massiv belasten. Erst am Mittwoch hatte das Bekanntwerden des schwachen ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex, wie "DiePresse.com" berichtete, Ängste vor einer Rezession in der weltgrößten Wirtschaft geschürt. "Wenn die Verfügbarkeit der Kredite für Haushalte schwindet, erhöht das den Abwärtsdruck auf die Konsumausgaben", warnt auch Howard Archer, Großbritannien-Chefvolkswirt bei Global Insight.

Britische Einzelhändler klagen

Das vorläufige Ende des Immobilienbooms in Großbritannien macht aber auch den Einzelhändlern auf der Insel zu schaffen. Ähnlich wie in den USA haben die Briten ihren Konsum zuletzt stark auf Pump finanziert. Folglich hat sich das Kreditvolumen für Unternehmen ebenfalls "signifikant" reduziert.

Angesichts der gedämpften Kauflaune der Verbraucher warnte der Betreiber von Elektronik-Ketten wie Currys und PC World, DSG International vor einem unerwartet geringen Gewinn. Die Modehauskette Next blickt ebenfalls "extrem vorsichtig" in das neue Jahr.

diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/...link=/home/index.do

Gleichzeitig zur Immobilienkrise ist die Inflationsrate in Spanien auf dem höchsten Stand seit10 Jahren. Vor allem bei Benzin, Lebensmitteln und Strom sind die Preise rasant gestiegen. Viele Spanier fürchten auch den Verlust ihres Arbeitsplatzes. Dementsprechend zurückhaltend sind sie  bei ihrem Kaufverhalten. Vor allem Einzelhändler bekommen diese Zurückhaltung bereits zu spüren. Aber auch die spanischen Firmen werden diese Krise schmerzlich miterleben, denn viele Tarifverträge sind an die Inflation gekoppelt. Der größte Arbeitgeberverband schätzt, dass die Firmen wegen der hohen Preissteigerung in diesem Jahr mehr als drei Milliarden Euro zusätzlich für Lohnkosten ausgeben müssen. Spanien verliert derzeit an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, die es mit dem Ende des Immobilienbooms dringend gebrauchen könnte.

In zwei Monaten sind in Spanien Parlamentswahlen. Konservative und Sozialisten liefern sich derzeit ein enges Kopf an Kopfrennen. Beide Parteien haben sich die Bekämpfung der wirtschaftlichen Probleme bereits zum Wahlkampfthema gemacht. Spaniens Ministerpräsident Rodriguez Zapatero will 300.000 Eigentumswohnungen für sozial Schwächere bauen lassen. Sein Parteikollege im südspanischen Andalusien, Manuel Chaves, hat mit Baulöwen, Banken und Gewerkschaften gar einen Plan für 700.000 Wohnungen unterschrieben. Allerdings hat wohl die konservative Partei in dieser Frage derzeit die Nase vor. Schuld daran ist wohl ein „Ausrutscher“ den sich Wirtschaftsminister Pedro Solbes leistete. Er machte die Ignoranz der Verbraucher für die hohe Inflation verantwortlich. Noch im Sommer dieses Jahres hatte der gleiche Minister übrigens auf einer Pressekonferenz behauptet, dass die Hypothekenkrise der USA keine nennenswerten Auswirkungen auf die spanische Ökonomie haben wird.

Ein anderer Minister empfahl zu Weihnachten einfach mehr Kaninchen zu essen. Scheinbar haben die spanischen Politiker den Ernst der Lage noch nicht erkannt.

www.berlinerumschau.com/...page=05012008ArtikelWirtschaftBerg1

Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, said: 'Some bounce-back in market activity was inevitable after what has been a prolonged period of weak market activity.

'However the growth in demand over the last two months is only a third of the level seen in previous years so the spring market is likely to be a non event this year.

'Continued uncertainty in the financial markets, affordability pressures and weak buyer confidence are all likely to suppress levels of market activity in the months ahead with pricing levels remaining under pressure.'

He added that Hometrack expects there to be a 17% fall in transactions during 2008. Hometrack said the biggest price falls during March were seen in the West Midlands, North and Greater London, with the average cost of a home dropping by 0.3% in these regions. All other regions saw price falls of 0.2%, expect Wales, where the cost of property remained unchanged.

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House prices 'see sharp decline'

House prices fell by 2.5% in March, the biggest monthly decline since September 1992, the Halifax has said.
The latest monthly figure from the UK's largest mortgage lender was significantly worse than many experts had expected.

House prices are now just 1.1% higher than they were a year ago, the slowest annual growth rate for 12 years.

The Halifax has also revised its predictions and now expects prices to fall over the course of this year.
The Nationwide took a similar stance earlier this month after reporting that prices had fallen for five months in a row.

Analysts said that the weaker-than-expected data from the Halifax would raise expectations that the Bank of England would cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points to 5% on Thursday.

However, because the lack of liquidity in money markets is making it more expensive for banks to borrow, a rate cut would not necessarily be passed on to mortgage holders, observers say.

'Adjustment'

For the first three months of the year, the Halifax said prices fell by 1.1% to a UK-wide average of £191,556, according to its data.

But the Halifax's chief economist, Martin Ellis, said that declines in prices "should be viewed in the context of the significant price rises over recent years".

He added that house prices were still being underpinned by "sound economic fundamentals" including a strong labour market, low interest rates and a shortage of new houses.

"We are definitely seeing an adjustment in the housing market," Mr Ellis said.

"I am surprised that we have seen a fall of quite this extent but of course we have been seeing some falls in previous months so it's not surprising that there's actually been a decline during the month."

Global Insight chief economist Howard Archer said that too much emphasis should not be put on one piece of data.

But he added: "The overall impression is that house prices were buckling markedly under the substantial pressure emanating from increased affordability constraints and markedly tighter lending conditions even before the latest escalation of the credit crunch."

Over the last year, the number of unsold properties in estate agents' windows has climbed 50%. Meanwhile, inquiries from buyers have fallen for 16 consecutive months.

The surveyors and estate agents who took part in the survey were extraordinarily pessimistic.

One predicted prices will fall 30% over the next three years. Another warned the situation is going to worsen, as the mortgage meltdown has only just started to take effect.

'With the effects of tighter lending criteria still to be felt, we may not have reached the bottom.'

Another declared: 'It is tough, very tough. Buyers are looking for rock bottom bargains. The market is yet to get worse before it gets better.' And one said: 'If we compare sales figures this March to 2007, 2006, 2005 etc then we can only describe the market as dire.'

Last week Halifax, the biggest mortgage lender, said prices slumped 2.5% in March, the largest drop in a month since the property crash of 1992.

Yesterday Jeremy Leaf, of the RICS, insisted that 'a significant crash' remains unlikely, unless the number of homes coming on to the market rises 'dramatically'.

But Shadow Chancellor George Osborne said homeowners should prepare themselves for a 'bust'. 'We are in the bust bit after the boom bit, if you take the figures from the Halifax,' he said.

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Homebuyer numbers slump to record low
29 April 2008, 1:09pm

The dramatic slowdown in the property market has been revealed by new figures showing mortgages for homebuyers hit a record low in March.

Mortgage lenders running out of cash have slashed their ranges leading to Bank of England figures showing just 64,000 loans for home purchases taken out in month – 44% lower than a year earlier.
Homebuyer activity has tumbled to the lowest level since the Bank of England began to collect data in April 1993 – in the middle of the 1990s slump.

The tightening credit crunch has seen the cost of securing funding for lenders soar, at the same time as banks seek to raise margins and horde cash to protect themselves from bad investments related to US subprime mortgages.

The Bank of England said 98,000 remortgages were approved in February, compared to 109,000 in February.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: "The bad news on the housing market just keeps on coming.

'March's very weak Bank of England data is yet further evidence that housing market activity is being severely hit by the damaging combination of stretched buyer affordability and very tight lending conditions.'

Lenders have raised rates, hiked deposits and axed mortgage offers over the past month, despite the Bank rate being by 0.25% to 5%.

Price comparison website Moneysupermarket has reported that the average best fixed rate from main providers was 6.18%, while the average tracker rate was 6.29%, and just 32 mortgages offering 95% loan-to-value were left on the market.

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Declines of a similar magnitude are being felt to a lesser extent across England and Wales and surveyors in East Anglia, the north and north west are unanimous that prices are falling.

Scotland, previously the only region to score a positive house price balance, also slipped into the red.

Expectations for future house prices fell to a series low while interest from prospective buyers decreased at the sharpest pace on record.

The completed sales to stock of unsold property ratio -- regarded by some economists as a more reliable gauge of the health of the housing market -- declined further with market conditions at their loosest since the 1996, RICS said.

uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080513/...useprices-rics-20b2d2f.html

"This means a much smaller proportion of borrowers face the full effect of falls in prices than was the case in the 1990s.
"Secondly, today's borrowers have typically put down a larger deposit than their 1980s counterparts," she added.

Further falls?

After a boom lasting for more than a decade, house price inflation took a decisive turn downwards last autumn.
The market collapsed under the twin impact of two pressures.
Prices became so high that most first-time buyers were priced out of the market, and the effects of the credit crunch have dried up the supply of money for new mortgages.

Lenders are now expecting that fresh mortgage lending will shrink by about 40% this year, despite the efforts of the Bank of England to inject more money into the banking system.
Ms Earley said that Nationwide was continuing to forecast single-digit house price falls during 2008.

But Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight, painted a gloomier picture for homeowners.
"It now looks more likely than not that house prices will suffer double-digit falls both this year and in 2009," he said.
He said this was a result of serious buyer affordability constraints, limited and often more expensive mortgages available because of the continuing tight lending conditions, a deteriorating economic outlook, and reduced prospects for further interest rate cuts in the near term.

'It was a mad state of affairs that defied the laws of economics. Thankfully new sellers are now taking some pro-active steps to price more realistically from the outset to attract increasingly hard-pressed buyers.'

The group insisted sales were still going through, and there was pent up demand for the right property at the right price.

It added that 'run-of-the-mill' properties that were not much different to others on the market had to stand out as 'bargain buys' to sell.

The widening gap between asking prices and what buyers are currently willing to pay or able to afford is behind the low level of transactions in the property market.

Rightmove said further reductions in asking prices would be required to sell homes where there was an oversupply, as buyer affordability continued to deteriorate against the backdrop of rising living costs and higher mortgage rates due to the credit crunch.

Mr Shipside said: 'For most sellers that will mean whatever they thought of asking for their property at the peak of the boom, they need to take at least 10% off. Otherwise their property will stagnate.'

Southern areas of the country led the way on price falls, with average asking prices dropping by 2.4% in the South East and 2.2% in the South West during the month, while in East Anglia and London they were 1.6% and 1.4% lower respectively.

But asking prices rose in other areas of the country, increasing by 0.5% in the North and 0.4% in both the West Midlands and Wales.

However, these areas have seen some of the steepest price falls to date, with average asking prices 3% lower in the West Midlands than they were a year ago, and 2.6% lower in Wales.

David Sandeman, managing director of Essential Information Group, said: 'Repossessions now make up over one in five of the properties on sale at auction.'

Official repossession figures from the first half of the year, from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, will not be published until August.
But the CML predicts repossessions will rise sharply this year from 27,100 last year to 45,000 this year, equal to nearly 125 families every day.

Repossession can have devastating consequences on families who lose their homes. It can lead to depression, divorce and an agonising disruption to children's lives who often have to move schools and lose touch with friends.

These days, it is becoming a reality for more families as inflation-busting rises in household bills and mortgage payments cripple their finances.
The number of families who are 'getting by' but describe their finances as 'pretty tight', has jumped according to the research firm Mintel.
In 2006, 25% said they were only just surviving but this has jumped to around 40%, its report reveals today.

Other figures, published yesterday by the National Association of Estate Agents, confirm the crisis facing anyone who needs to sell their home, particularly if they are in a rush.

Last month, estate agents sold an average of just six homes, which has more than halved from an average of 13 in the same month last year. One estate agent from the North East described the first half of this year as 'a complete disaster', adding: 'I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel.'

One from Devon said: 'Transactions are down around 60% which has sent shivers down the spine.'
He said there were signs of a slight improvement over the past week with 'an increasing perception' that prices 'will not fall forever'.

Several agents said buyers are so nervous that they are regularly getting 'cold feet' on the day that contracts are due to be exchanged.

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'The bankruptcy of the UK is a very real probability as the UK government is trying to stimulate a greater debt burden in a grossly over-indebted economy,' it says.

'We believe the scale of the imbalances in the UK means there is no prospect of a recovery in 2009 and we expect the UK to be mired in a deep recession through all of 2010.' It calls the Government's aim to get banks to lend again at 2007 levels 'crazy' and warns against anyone borrowing now to enter the property market.

Numis predicts house price falls will accelerate in coming months as amateur buy-to-let investors begin to 'panic sell' their portfolios. The biggest collapse will be in the glut of city centre flats and executive homes built in the past decade, it claims.

Numis suggests that the average house price - around £160,000 even after recent falls - is over-valued by between 17% and 39%. It calculates that the average house price should be just £96,000, based on average earnings and the old lending limit of three times salary plus a 25% deposit.

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