Als Finanzminister hätt´ ich das auch gesagt

*g*

31. Okt,18:48 VWD  

US/O'Neill: Wirtschaft könnte im vierten Quartal wachsen

Washington (vwd) - Nach Einschätzung von US-Finanzminister Paul O'Neill könnte die Wirtschaft seines Landes im vierten Quartal dieses Jahres noch einen positiven Wachstumsverlauf verzeichnen. O'Neill warb in diesem Zusammenhang für eine Zustimmung des US-Kongresses zu dem von der Bush-Regierung vorgelegten Konjunkturpaket. Eine Verabschiedung des Fiskalpaktes würde die Wahrscheinlichkeit für ein moderates Wachstum erhöhen, sagte O'Neill am Mittwoch in Washington. Er verwies zudem darauf, dass die Verabschiedung des Konjunkturpaktes den Finanzmärkten zugleich einen positiven Impuls verleihen würden. O'Neills Ausführungen kamen in Anschluss an eine Rede von Präsident George W. Bush vor dem US-Kongress, der die Abgeordneten noch einmal dazu aufgerufen hatte, seinen Plänen bis Ende November zuzustimmen. Zuvor hatte das US-Handelsministerium bekannt gegeben, dass die US-Wirtschaft im dritten Quartal mit einer Rate von annualisiert 0,4 Prozent geschrumpft sei. Experten hatten im Vorfeld einen Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von rund einem Prozent erwartet. vwd/DJ/31.10.2001/ptr  



Schmuggler

Friday: The report on unemployment and payrolls could be a doozy. The unemployment rate is likely to climb above 5 percent for the first time since June 1997 while the number of payroll jobs could decline by more than 300,000, the sharpest fall since the 1990 recession.

Nov. 6: To top off a whirlwind week, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets for a day to talk about the economy and short-term interest rates. There is wide speculation the Fed will cut rates again by 0.25 percentage points.

Nov. 7: Another quarterly report on productivity and unit labor costs will be studied carefully. There is a growing debate on the level of productivity, a key ingredient in the strength of any recovery that develops next year.

Nov. 9: Inflation is not a factor. The producer-price index, a look at prices one step removed from the consumer, will likely show a slight decline as energy prices continue to ease.

Nov. 13: Unemployment rates at the state and local level for October will be released. The statewide rates may hold steady around 6.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Seattle's rate may continue to creep up as announced layoffs begin to become realities.

Nov. 14: Did retail sales rebound in October after a sharp decline in September? That's one of the key questions being asked these days.

Nov. 15: Business inventories have continued to fall, a sign of sluggish demand and overcapacity. Business must begin to restock shelves if any recovery is to materialize.

Nov. 16: Consumer prices also remain benign while industrial production and factory use continue to reflect a serious recession in manufacturing.

Nov. 19: Housing is one of the bright spots in the economy although housing starts have declined somewhat in recent months. The rate should still be a healthy 1.5 million on an annual basis for October.

Nov. 27: Consumer confidence remains one of the keys to the economy. It has continued to drop since the terrorist attacks, although the rate of decline has slowed dramatically. A stable rate or a small uptick could do wonders for the stock market.

Nov. 30: The first of two refinements of the gross-domestic-product report for the third quarter will appear. Unlike past reports, this update could be a key one when inventories and trade figures are counted.

To send items, write to The Newsletter, Stephen H. Dunphy, The Seattle Times, P.O. Box 70, Seattle, WA 98111.

Werde von Vöglern verfolgt!!    

When times are flush, U.S. companies like to put their money to work. They raise inventory levels to ensure demand will be met. They hire more workers, build plants and buy spanking-new equipment to boost production. But when the economy goes sour, like now, they cut those inventories, freeze hiring and cut back on capital spending plans. That leaves them with more cash on hand.

Meanwhile, financial institutions, less willing to lend money in a dangerous economic environment, also shift more cash into money market funds during a downturn. And for these outfits, points out Credit Suisse First Boston bond market strategist Mike Cloherty, money market funds have an added allure -- their yields adjust slowly enough in an aggressive easing environment that it's possible to play the spread between their returns and actual market returns. "They're posting above-market yields a lot of days," he says.

But maybe you can still argue that low money market yields are going to force investors into stocks. The 2.3% yield on the average money market fund is hardly the kind of thing to build retirement dreams on. (Heck, it's going to have a hard time keeping up with the rate of inflation.) Moreover, even if retail money market fund balances aren't growing all that rapidly, they still are growing. Meanwhile, the decline in stock prices has brought down the equity portion of investors' portfolios. Investors could conclude that on a percentage basis, they're holding too much cash and too little equity.

But low money market returns, or the stock market's history of giving very good returns, are not alone going to create that shift. Consider the Tokyo stock market, which has been mired for years, despite interest rates near zero. "Did the Bank of Japan push people out of safe deposits into the stock market?" asks Banc of America Securities equity portfolio strategist Tom McManus.

Stocks will first have to offer some stability, then some steady growth, to persuade investors to meaningfully raise equity positions. Even then it will be hard. Many retirement portfolios are no better off than they were five years ago, and now, of course, retirement is five years closer. This is not to say that stocks cannot go meaningfully higher in the year to come, only that if they do, it will be for strong fundamental reasons -- not because of a wave of money that probably isn't even there.

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irgendwie muss ich jetzt lachen :-))

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - news) was off 6.23 points, or 0.07 percent, at 9,115.75, after climbing more than 1 percent. Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE:EK - news), down $2.69 to $25.11, or 9.7 percent, pressured the blue-chip gauge after Moody's cut its debt rating and warned it may lower the long-term rating again amid falling profits.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - news) rose 4.03 points, or 0.38 percent, at 1,063.82. The stock market had sold off in the last two days after rallying last week.

Wall Street widely expects the economy to slip into a recession. But investors are hoping more tax cuts and lower interest rates will lift the economy by 2002. President Bush (news - web sites) urged Congress to pass a stimulus package by the end of November in a speech at the White House.

Most economists expect the economic contraction to last at least to the end of the year and if it does, the third quarter would mark the start of the first U.S. recession in 10 years. A recession is loosely defined as at least two straight quarters of falling GDP.

In other economic news, the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said its October index slipped to 46.2 from 46.6 in September, but this beat economists' estimates of a drop to 43.0.

The October index that showed less weakness than expected suggests regional manufacturing could bottom fairly soon, but does not necessarily mean Thursday's national survey by NAPM will follow suit, analysts said.

``What it's showing is that the economy, although it's slowing now, is slowing at a gradual pace as opposed to rapidly plunging off a cliff,'' said John Herrmann, chief economist at IDEAglobal. ``We think the NAPM index falls a little bit more than this because NAPM will capture corporations in New York and outside the region of Chicago.''

The October National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) index, due shortly after the open on Thursday, is forecast on average slipping to 44.3 from 47.0 in September.

Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news), a Dow member and Nasdaq heavyweight, added 63 cents to $24.17, or 2.6 percent. The world's largest chip maker sounded a bullish note for long-term growth, saying the billions it's spending this year will yield profits and market share gains once the high-tech recession abates and growth resumes.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT - news) rose 51 cents to $16.65, or more than 3 percent, after the wireless giant said its global market share rose in the July-September quarter from the second quarter, boosted by sales of new products.

Adobe Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:ADBE - news) fell $3.41 to $25.34, or nearly 12 percent. The publishing software vendor said it would cut 150 jobs, or 5 percent of its work force, and lowered its revenue and earnings guidance, citing weakening business after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Enron Corp. (NYSE:ENE - news) rose $1.47 to $12.63, bouncing back from 10 consecutive days of losses. The Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday in its influential ``Heard On The Street'' column that with Enron trading at book value, some Wall Streeters see the beleaguered energy trader as a takeover target. Enron shares on Tuesday dropped 19 percent to hit 1992 levels amid fears of a credit crunch and concerns over management reluctance to discuss its finances.