US business conditions are deteriorating - R. Brenner
hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html
Auszug:
Business conditions weakened in September, according to the Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI), falling below the 50% threshold that represents improving breadth.
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fell by seven points to 47%, the lowest reading since April 2003.
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The Advance Bookings Index continued its plunge in September, falling 15 points to 48%, below the 50% threshold
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That said, companies remained cautious in early September. Only 25% of reporting analysts said that advance bookings were up for the next 1–6 months compared with the previous three months, down from 46% in July; 30% said that advance bookings were lower.
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Pricing conditions continued to improve in September, although at a slower rate. The index fell by five points to 60%, as 53% of respondents reported that companies have increased prices from a year ago and 33% reported that companies have lowered them.
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Prices are beginning to increase for the credit card issuers as they start to reprice their fixed rate cards to avoid the margin compression that would otherwise result from rising rates. Prices also increased by 3% or more from a year ago for all reporting groups within the healthcare sector and by 1-3% for all industrial groups with the exception of airlines. By and large, household and personal care companies continue to pass commodity price hikes through to consumers, while retailers report that they have been able to sustain modest price increases from a year ago without losing volume.
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Hiring headwinds…
Despite our contention that pent-up demand for hiring is strong, analysts reported that hiring breadth moderated in September.
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We expect capex plans to slow as the “bonus depreciation” feature of current tax law expires at year-end
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Brenner ist der Optimist unter den Volkswirten bei Morgan Stanley und nimmt oft die andere Seite von S. Roach ein.
Eine Veränderung konnte man bei seinen optimistischen Zielprojektionen in den letzten Monaten erkennen, indem er seine Wachstumserwartungen deutlich nach unten reduziert hatte.
Es scheint so, als ob es nur die Fed so sieht, daß die US-Wirtschaft ihre Zugkraft wieder gewinnt - und riskiert somit das sie den letzten Rest was von ihrer Glaubwürdigkeit übrig geblieben ist aufs Spiel setzt.
hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html
Auszug:
Business conditions weakened in September, according to the Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI), falling below the 50% threshold that represents improving breadth.
....................
fell by seven points to 47%, the lowest reading since April 2003.
...............
The Advance Bookings Index continued its plunge in September, falling 15 points to 48%, below the 50% threshold
.................
That said, companies remained cautious in early September. Only 25% of reporting analysts said that advance bookings were up for the next 1–6 months compared with the previous three months, down from 46% in July; 30% said that advance bookings were lower.
.....................
Pricing conditions continued to improve in September, although at a slower rate. The index fell by five points to 60%, as 53% of respondents reported that companies have increased prices from a year ago and 33% reported that companies have lowered them.
................
Prices are beginning to increase for the credit card issuers as they start to reprice their fixed rate cards to avoid the margin compression that would otherwise result from rising rates. Prices also increased by 3% or more from a year ago for all reporting groups within the healthcare sector and by 1-3% for all industrial groups with the exception of airlines. By and large, household and personal care companies continue to pass commodity price hikes through to consumers, while retailers report that they have been able to sustain modest price increases from a year ago without losing volume.
.....................
Hiring headwinds…
Despite our contention that pent-up demand for hiring is strong, analysts reported that hiring breadth moderated in September.
.................
We expect capex plans to slow as the “bonus depreciation” feature of current tax law expires at year-end
..................
Brenner ist der Optimist unter den Volkswirten bei Morgan Stanley und nimmt oft die andere Seite von S. Roach ein.
Eine Veränderung konnte man bei seinen optimistischen Zielprojektionen in den letzten Monaten erkennen, indem er seine Wachstumserwartungen deutlich nach unten reduziert hatte.
Es scheint so, als ob es nur die Fed so sieht, daß die US-Wirtschaft ihre Zugkraft wieder gewinnt - und riskiert somit das sie den letzten Rest was von ihrer Glaubwürdigkeit übrig geblieben ist aufs Spiel setzt.
