February 21, 2002
Sanmina-SCI looks like a steep bargain
Jason Chow
Financial Post
Compare the price-earnings ratio of Sanmina-SCI Corp. shares to its competitors in the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) sector and it hardly looks like the cheap buy some analysts have begun touting it as.
Sanmina is trading at 64 times its projected 2002 earnings. Competitor Celestica Inc. is trading at 24 times and Solectron Corp. is at a 40 multiple.
Hardly a value pick, right? Actually, in an interesting twist, Sanmina is both richly valued and grossly undervalued compared to its peers.
It depends on how you slice the numbers and what you think about its prospects in 2003. Consider this: Sanmina shares are trading at a price-to-book value ratio of 1.2, a multiple half of what its competitors trade at.
And though they are projected to have a lousy fiscal 2002, analysts are forecasting 476% earnings growth in 2003. Solectron is the closest to rival the astronomical rebound, with projected 73% earnings growth in 2003.
It's all in the printed circuit boards, said analyst Kevin Denney at Brean Murray & Co. in New York. Sanmina is more exposed to industry downturns because of its focus on manufacturing the complex high-end products.
"The operating leverage is in its business model. It's a higher fixed-cost business, so ebbs and flows are much wider in that business than the others," said Mr. Denney, who recently upgraded the stock to a "buy" rating.
It's exactly those ebbs and flows that Sanmina was trying to smooth out with its SCI Corp. acquisition last summer.
Sanmina, which was mostly focused on high-end complex manufacturing for the telecommunications industry in North America, bought the much larger SCI Corp. to diversify its business. The deal was hailed by management as an automatic boost to earnings. The company became the third-largest player in the EMS sector and Sanmina has added SCI's orders, which are more focused in low-margin high-volume business.
But the earnings boost never came; tripling the size of a company is no easy process and the economic downturn of the past year hurt sales. During the six months that have followed the acquisition, Sanmina earned only US2¢ per share, compared with the US44¢ it made prior to the acquisition.
"Management was way too optimistic when they announced the deal. They gave guidance and nobody believed them," said analyst Todd Coupland at CIBC World Markets in Toronto.
And the profit picture doesn't look great for the next nine months. Analysts are expecting Sanmina to make only US17¢ during the 2002 fiscal year, a big drop from the US85¢ it made in 2001.
In the short term, it's going to be rough. The company is running its factories at 35% capacity and is projected to earn zero during this quarter.
But the drop in profits is expected to be followed by an equally dramatic rebound, with the average analyst forecast for 2003 at US81¢ per share.
Already, for the December, 2002, quarter, the company is projected to earn US20¢ per share.
And it's the momentum and the 2003 forecast that the market is looking forward to. Though Sanmina shares are trading at an exorbitant 64 times 2002 earnings, they are within the 18 to 25 P/E range for 2003 expected earnings.
And it's the momentum that has some analysts excited about the stock's prospects. With a depressed stock price, having lost half its value in just the past two months, some are thinking now is the time to buy Sanmina shares.
"It's quite inexpensive, considering how much they're projected to earn in December," said Mr. Coupland, who has a "buy" rating on the stock. "But it's no rock-solid path to US20¢ (per share earnings). When the end-market will recover is still in question."
And similar to all stocks in the sector, there lies the dark cloud of uncertainty that has many analyst shy away.
Of the 28 experts who cover the company listed on Bloomberg News, 11 have either a "hold" or "sell" rating on the stock.
SANMINA-SCI CORP.:
CEO: Jure Sola
Ticker: SANM
Listed: Nasdaq
Head office: 2700 North First Street, San Jose, CA 95134
Telephone: 1 (408) 964-3500
www.sanmina.com
jchow@nationalpost.com