DUE DILIGENCE
Akamai's tragic irony of Sept. 11
Web-delivery pioneer starred even as its star fell
By Bambi Francisco, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Oct. 5, 2001
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (CBS.MW) -- On Sept. 11, Akamai Technologies' global network proved its mettle by shouldering an unprecedented amount of Internet traffic, two to three times its average daily volume.
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Even as the world's communications networks were taxed to the hilt, Akamai's nearly 12,000 servers in 62 countries served millions of pages, audio and video feeds to people pounding the Internet for information about the terrorist attacks.
But in a tragic irony, the same event that proved the value of Akamai's services also claimed the life of Danny Lewin, the company's 31-year-old co-founder and chief technology officer. That ill-fated morning, Lewin boarded an American Airlines jet in Boston, the plane that turned out to be the first to hit the World Trade Center.
'Day we were most in demand'
"On a personal level, it was horrible," said Tom Leighton, chief scientist and another co-founder of Akamai (AKAM: news, chart, profile). "On a corporate level, we were forced to adjust ... Sept. 11 was the day we were most in demand in corporate history."
Customers saw traffic soar, including CNN.com, where the number for daily site visits jumped fivefold to 5.2 million. MSNBC.com, which provides news for MSN.com, racked up 100 million page views (10 times normal) and users topped 12 million, four times the daily average volume.
MSNBC.com doesn't usually rely on Akamai, instead using the company as an insurance policy in times of unexpected traffic, said Steve White, MSNBC.com's chief technology officer.
To meet that day's demands, however, MSNBC.com turned to Akamai's service to serve up 13 million video streams, live and on-demand, equal to 30 million minutes of video. Akamai served 92 percent of MSNBC.com's streamed content that day.
Overall, Akamai distributed 150 million streams, live and on-demand audio and video, on Sept. 11 and the ensuing days.
"It was a tragic irony," said Paul Sagan, president of the Cambridge, Mass.-based company. "We were personally touched because Danny Lewin was on the first flight. At the same time, over 1,000 of our customers, which are news sites, saw their traffic skyrocket." Listen to the interview.
Lewin, who was married and had two children, knew the value of his company's services. "Akamai has been responsible for a paradigm shift in how content providers think about using the Internet for delivering large amounts of content," he told InfoWorld magazine in its March issue honoring the 25 most influential CTO's.
Government agencies also sought the assistance of Akamai as the Internet was used to accept information about the terrorist attacks. The Internet Fraud Complaint Center, a joint venture between the National White Collar Crime Commission and the FBI, turned on Akamai as a result of the attacks.
Making numbers
The surge in traffic Sept. 11 and the rest of the month helped create a windfall of revenue that should allow the company to meet its September financial goals, a rare feat during an economic slump.
And therein lies another irony -- that the event that proved the importance of the Internet as an emergency communications tool had just tipped the already fragile economy into a severe slowdown.
Like other tech companies, Akamai had been under pressure even before Sept. 11. In February, Akamai was expected to generate $240 million in sales for the year, as estimated by Banc of America Securities. That forecast has since dropped by 28 percent to $171 million asAkamai endures a shrinking customer base. In the second quarter, Akamai lost a net 170 customers, mostly reflecting business closures.
Akamai has maintained its objective to generate between $175 million and $190 million this year.
Yet operating expenses still need to decrease as a percentage of revenue. Operating margins are roughly negative 60 percent. And capital expenditures accounted for 40 percent of revenue. Akamai's goal is to have capital expenditures account for only 5 percent of sales.
All the expenses, however, threaten to account for a larger portion of revenue should the economic slump persists. Still, cutting expenses would risk falling short of revenue goals.
Indeed, reaching profitability has become increasingly dubious. Akamai shares are down 82 percent since the start of the year. At $3.72, it has a market value of $428 million, less than 2 percent of its peak of $25 billion, when the stock traded at $345 in January 2000.
Of the 20 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call that cover Akamai, 13 have a "hold" rating and one has a "sell."
"At a lower revenue base, Akamai continues to burn through a lot of cash," said Kevin Trosian, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, who has the "sell" rating on the company. "If it cuts its operating expenses, it will likely have to lower its revenue objectives."
To be fair, for a company with a worldwide network that handles sizable traffic, Akamai's $100 million in expenditures over the past two years seems relatively cost efficient. But nonetheless, it's still involved in a network build-out that requires capital that just isn't there.
Moreover, Akamai's $316.5 million in subordinated notes are trading between 35 cents and 40 cents on the dollar, according to Trosian. To many analysts who follow the health of a company's balance sheet, these prices signal a red flag.
Economic headwinds
While Akamai has earned its reputation as a reliable, flexible deliverer of video content, its challenge remains to convince current customers to spend more, or to bring aboard new clients.
And Akamai's service may not be on the top of the spending priority list. So far, sales of its EdgeSuite service, designed to penetrate corporate America, are going more slowly than some analysts would like.
To increase its distribution, Akamai has reached four major alliances in the quarter that just ended. It announced reseller deals with IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile) and Compaq Computer (CPQ: news, chart, profile). It also signed agreements to be integrated into the major application servers including IBM's WebSphere, WebLogic by BEA Systems (BEAS: news, chart, profile) and the 9i product from Oracle (ORCL: news, chart, profile).
Ever since it went public in 1999 as a tiny start-up, Akamai's story has captivated Wall Street. Engineers from M.I.T. created a "secret sauce" algorithm that placed content at the edge of the network, propelling the company to achieve a series of milestones.
But in a post-Sept. 11 world, where normal isn't so normal anymore, Akamai's path may have less to do with having the best technology than it does with how well it copes with those events that are beyond its, or anybody else's, control.
Bambi Francisco is Internet editor of CBS.MarketWatch.com, based in San Francisco.
Akamai's tragic irony of Sept. 11
Web-delivery pioneer starred even as its star fell
By Bambi Francisco, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Oct. 5, 2001
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (CBS.MW) -- On Sept. 11, Akamai Technologies' global network proved its mettle by shouldering an unprecedented amount of Internet traffic, two to three times its average daily volume.
FRONT PAGE NEWS
U.S. stocks stage remarkable comeback
Sun Microsystems warns of loss, plans layoffs
Bush: Stimulus should consist of tax cuts
US nonfarm payrolls down 199,000 in Sept.
Market news and more! Sign up to receive FREE email newsletters
Get the latest news
24 hours a day from our 100-person news team.
Even as the world's communications networks were taxed to the hilt, Akamai's nearly 12,000 servers in 62 countries served millions of pages, audio and video feeds to people pounding the Internet for information about the terrorist attacks.
But in a tragic irony, the same event that proved the value of Akamai's services also claimed the life of Danny Lewin, the company's 31-year-old co-founder and chief technology officer. That ill-fated morning, Lewin boarded an American Airlines jet in Boston, the plane that turned out to be the first to hit the World Trade Center.
'Day we were most in demand'
"On a personal level, it was horrible," said Tom Leighton, chief scientist and another co-founder of Akamai (AKAM: news, chart, profile). "On a corporate level, we were forced to adjust ... Sept. 11 was the day we were most in demand in corporate history."
Customers saw traffic soar, including CNN.com, where the number for daily site visits jumped fivefold to 5.2 million. MSNBC.com, which provides news for MSN.com, racked up 100 million page views (10 times normal) and users topped 12 million, four times the daily average volume.
MSNBC.com doesn't usually rely on Akamai, instead using the company as an insurance policy in times of unexpected traffic, said Steve White, MSNBC.com's chief technology officer.
To meet that day's demands, however, MSNBC.com turned to Akamai's service to serve up 13 million video streams, live and on-demand, equal to 30 million minutes of video. Akamai served 92 percent of MSNBC.com's streamed content that day.
Overall, Akamai distributed 150 million streams, live and on-demand audio and video, on Sept. 11 and the ensuing days.
"It was a tragic irony," said Paul Sagan, president of the Cambridge, Mass.-based company. "We were personally touched because Danny Lewin was on the first flight. At the same time, over 1,000 of our customers, which are news sites, saw their traffic skyrocket." Listen to the interview.
Lewin, who was married and had two children, knew the value of his company's services. "Akamai has been responsible for a paradigm shift in how content providers think about using the Internet for delivering large amounts of content," he told InfoWorld magazine in its March issue honoring the 25 most influential CTO's.
Government agencies also sought the assistance of Akamai as the Internet was used to accept information about the terrorist attacks. The Internet Fraud Complaint Center, a joint venture between the National White Collar Crime Commission and the FBI, turned on Akamai as a result of the attacks.
Making numbers
The surge in traffic Sept. 11 and the rest of the month helped create a windfall of revenue that should allow the company to meet its September financial goals, a rare feat during an economic slump.
And therein lies another irony -- that the event that proved the importance of the Internet as an emergency communications tool had just tipped the already fragile economy into a severe slowdown.
Like other tech companies, Akamai had been under pressure even before Sept. 11. In February, Akamai was expected to generate $240 million in sales for the year, as estimated by Banc of America Securities. That forecast has since dropped by 28 percent to $171 million asAkamai endures a shrinking customer base. In the second quarter, Akamai lost a net 170 customers, mostly reflecting business closures.
Akamai has maintained its objective to generate between $175 million and $190 million this year.
Yet operating expenses still need to decrease as a percentage of revenue. Operating margins are roughly negative 60 percent. And capital expenditures accounted for 40 percent of revenue. Akamai's goal is to have capital expenditures account for only 5 percent of sales.
All the expenses, however, threaten to account for a larger portion of revenue should the economic slump persists. Still, cutting expenses would risk falling short of revenue goals.
Indeed, reaching profitability has become increasingly dubious. Akamai shares are down 82 percent since the start of the year. At $3.72, it has a market value of $428 million, less than 2 percent of its peak of $25 billion, when the stock traded at $345 in January 2000.
Of the 20 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call that cover Akamai, 13 have a "hold" rating and one has a "sell."
"At a lower revenue base, Akamai continues to burn through a lot of cash," said Kevin Trosian, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, who has the "sell" rating on the company. "If it cuts its operating expenses, it will likely have to lower its revenue objectives."
To be fair, for a company with a worldwide network that handles sizable traffic, Akamai's $100 million in expenditures over the past two years seems relatively cost efficient. But nonetheless, it's still involved in a network build-out that requires capital that just isn't there.
Moreover, Akamai's $316.5 million in subordinated notes are trading between 35 cents and 40 cents on the dollar, according to Trosian. To many analysts who follow the health of a company's balance sheet, these prices signal a red flag.
Economic headwinds
While Akamai has earned its reputation as a reliable, flexible deliverer of video content, its challenge remains to convince current customers to spend more, or to bring aboard new clients.
And Akamai's service may not be on the top of the spending priority list. So far, sales of its EdgeSuite service, designed to penetrate corporate America, are going more slowly than some analysts would like.
To increase its distribution, Akamai has reached four major alliances in the quarter that just ended. It announced reseller deals with IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile) and Compaq Computer (CPQ: news, chart, profile). It also signed agreements to be integrated into the major application servers including IBM's WebSphere, WebLogic by BEA Systems (BEAS: news, chart, profile) and the 9i product from Oracle (ORCL: news, chart, profile).
Ever since it went public in 1999 as a tiny start-up, Akamai's story has captivated Wall Street. Engineers from M.I.T. created a "secret sauce" algorithm that placed content at the edge of the network, propelling the company to achieve a series of milestones.
But in a post-Sept. 11 world, where normal isn't so normal anymore, Akamai's path may have less to do with having the best technology than it does with how well it copes with those events that are beyond its, or anybody else's, control.
Bambi Francisco is Internet editor of CBS.MarketWatch.com, based in San Francisco.