If The Thunder Don't Get Ya Then The Lightening Will.
hxxp://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Auszug:
Away from the "real world", so to speak, Fed sponsored liquidity creation in the US has also been responsible for various forms of asset inflation over the recent years simply as an outlet for this excess liquidity. Whether in stocks, bonds, or housing, accelerating prices to the extent we have experienced would simply not have been possible without incredible monetary stimulus. It's no secret at all that the Fed's unspoken modus operandi in terms of kick starting the recent domestic economic recovery was in good part grounded in asset inflation and subsequent monetization, primarily as it related to residential real estate. And as we have seen over the recent past, when price acceleration in one asset class cools down, the growing pool of speculative investment related liquidity simply migrates to another asset. The very nature of excess liquidity has provided the fuel for virtually unprecedented financial speculation. And real commodities have not been exempt from this tidal wave of liquidity in the least. Certainly at least some part of the recent rise in crude is due to the act of financial speculation in real commodity markets, although we firmly believe that longer term energy prices are squarely driven by supply and demand dynamics. Thank you Fed for the cheap cost of capital and plentitude of financial ammunition with which to speculate.
Finally, it's pretty darn clear that a declining dollar over the last few years has likewise pressured all commodity prices higher, given that most commodities are denominated in US dollars in terms of global payment or trade. Is the Fed's incredible monetary largesse at least in part responsible for relative dollar value slippage over the last few years? Of course it is. Dollar slippage that the global producers of commodities can only offset with higher absolute dollar prices. Again, whether crude prices have been influenced by real global economic growth, excessive financial speculation, or as an offset to the declining dollar, the Fed's monetary machinations have in good part supported all of these factors that have in part pressured crude prices higher.
If The Thunder Don't Get Ya Then The Lightening Will...
Although this may sound like far too simplistic a question, is the Fed really down to the choice of higher US domestic interest rates or higher crude (and perhaps broader global commodity prices) prices ahead? Either way, the Fed appears over a barrel.
..................
As is clear, directional relative acceleration in both crude prices and Fed Funds have gone hand in hand over the period shown. Based on historical precedent, unless the recent spike in crude is quickly followed by a near term and very sharp sell off in price, it would seem a darn good bet that much higher short term rates lie ahead. The Fed is being pushed into a very tight corner. With each tick higher in crude prices, the Fed is increasingly being forced to choose between perhaps very unacceptable outcomes.
..............
But maybe more than anything else, what has truly amazed us over the recent past is what appears to be the casual manner in which the financial markets have viewed higher crude prices. If you had told us one year ago that we would virtually kiss $50 per barrel on crude pricing, we would have expected an efficient market to perhaps react much more violently to the downside than has been the case so far
................
despite higher consumer confidence readings as of late, real world anecdotes of consumer spending activity have suggested consumers are growing weary. Perhaps very weary. And, as we have mentioned many a time, corporate capital spending is definitely not stepping in to fill the void in terms of supporting broader domestic GDP growth at the moment.
Enough for now. The bottom line is that what is very different about the current economic recovery cycle relative to prior historical experience is the acceleration in crude prices at the front end of this recovery. As we have shown you, there is no precedent for what has happened over the last 11 quarters. As there is likewise no precedent for the monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed by the Fed and Administration over this same period.
Ein weiterer sprühender Kommentar, Komplimente an unsere Freunde von contraryinvestor!
Der Markt scheint wie magnetisiert zu sein, wie die Fed, die hofft, daß der Ölschock von 2004 Ölschock ein "vorübergehendes Phänomen" ist.
Der Ölpreis hat sich schon in den letzten 4 Jahren fast verdoppelt und fast vervierfacht seit seinem Tief in 1998 von $12 pro barrel.
China und Indien werden vom Westen unterschätzt - während sich ihre Nachfrage spektakulär gestiegen ist, und der Bedarf wird vor allem in China weiter ansteigen.
Diese abwartende Haltung ist ein Szenario, welches an den Markt vor ein paar Jahren erinnert - als Corporate America auch still abgewartet hatte und auf ein besseres Wetter gehofft hatte und solche neuen Begriffe wie z.B. The New Paradigm, The New Economy etc. in den Mund nahm und später damit auf die Schnauze fielen, als die Ölpreise, die von den niedrigen $20ern in die niedrigen $30er angestiegen waren. Der letzte Strohhalm war dahin und die The New Economy hat Poof gemacht, die Blase platzte und Millionen an Jobs gingen verloren und nun plagen die USA ein gewaltiges Defizit, welches in den Orbit gestiegen ist.
Der US-$ hat schon ungefähr 30% von seinem Wert verloren und wird in der Zukunft noch weitere 50% verlieren.
Diese abwartende Haltung kann man in den USA schon wieder erkennen, während der Ölschock unerbittlich und ohne Nachlassen auf die Kosten der Unternehmen und die Ausgaben der Verbraucher niederschlägt.
Laßt euch nicht von den "höheren" Verbraucherausgaben in die Irre führen, weil die Ausgaben der Verbraucher aufgrund der höheren Transportkosten, höheren Energienpreisen, höheren medizinischen Kosten, höheren Commoditypreisen, höheren Importpreisen, usw. usw. usw. angestiegen sind.
Der Kapitalanleger hat eine Wahl - entweder ist er Teil von der abwartenden Haltung oder er ist smart genug und fügt seinem Portfolio physisches Gold und Silber hinzu als persönliche Absicherung.
hxxp://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Auszug:
Away from the "real world", so to speak, Fed sponsored liquidity creation in the US has also been responsible for various forms of asset inflation over the recent years simply as an outlet for this excess liquidity. Whether in stocks, bonds, or housing, accelerating prices to the extent we have experienced would simply not have been possible without incredible monetary stimulus. It's no secret at all that the Fed's unspoken modus operandi in terms of kick starting the recent domestic economic recovery was in good part grounded in asset inflation and subsequent monetization, primarily as it related to residential real estate. And as we have seen over the recent past, when price acceleration in one asset class cools down, the growing pool of speculative investment related liquidity simply migrates to another asset. The very nature of excess liquidity has provided the fuel for virtually unprecedented financial speculation. And real commodities have not been exempt from this tidal wave of liquidity in the least. Certainly at least some part of the recent rise in crude is due to the act of financial speculation in real commodity markets, although we firmly believe that longer term energy prices are squarely driven by supply and demand dynamics. Thank you Fed for the cheap cost of capital and plentitude of financial ammunition with which to speculate.
Finally, it's pretty darn clear that a declining dollar over the last few years has likewise pressured all commodity prices higher, given that most commodities are denominated in US dollars in terms of global payment or trade. Is the Fed's incredible monetary largesse at least in part responsible for relative dollar value slippage over the last few years? Of course it is. Dollar slippage that the global producers of commodities can only offset with higher absolute dollar prices. Again, whether crude prices have been influenced by real global economic growth, excessive financial speculation, or as an offset to the declining dollar, the Fed's monetary machinations have in good part supported all of these factors that have in part pressured crude prices higher.
If The Thunder Don't Get Ya Then The Lightening Will...
Although this may sound like far too simplistic a question, is the Fed really down to the choice of higher US domestic interest rates or higher crude (and perhaps broader global commodity prices) prices ahead? Either way, the Fed appears over a barrel.
..................
As is clear, directional relative acceleration in both crude prices and Fed Funds have gone hand in hand over the period shown. Based on historical precedent, unless the recent spike in crude is quickly followed by a near term and very sharp sell off in price, it would seem a darn good bet that much higher short term rates lie ahead. The Fed is being pushed into a very tight corner. With each tick higher in crude prices, the Fed is increasingly being forced to choose between perhaps very unacceptable outcomes.
..............
But maybe more than anything else, what has truly amazed us over the recent past is what appears to be the casual manner in which the financial markets have viewed higher crude prices. If you had told us one year ago that we would virtually kiss $50 per barrel on crude pricing, we would have expected an efficient market to perhaps react much more violently to the downside than has been the case so far
................
despite higher consumer confidence readings as of late, real world anecdotes of consumer spending activity have suggested consumers are growing weary. Perhaps very weary. And, as we have mentioned many a time, corporate capital spending is definitely not stepping in to fill the void in terms of supporting broader domestic GDP growth at the moment.
Enough for now. The bottom line is that what is very different about the current economic recovery cycle relative to prior historical experience is the acceleration in crude prices at the front end of this recovery. As we have shown you, there is no precedent for what has happened over the last 11 quarters. As there is likewise no precedent for the monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed by the Fed and Administration over this same period.
Ein weiterer sprühender Kommentar, Komplimente an unsere Freunde von contraryinvestor!
Der Markt scheint wie magnetisiert zu sein, wie die Fed, die hofft, daß der Ölschock von 2004 Ölschock ein "vorübergehendes Phänomen" ist.
Der Ölpreis hat sich schon in den letzten 4 Jahren fast verdoppelt und fast vervierfacht seit seinem Tief in 1998 von $12 pro barrel.
China und Indien werden vom Westen unterschätzt - während sich ihre Nachfrage spektakulär gestiegen ist, und der Bedarf wird vor allem in China weiter ansteigen.
Diese abwartende Haltung ist ein Szenario, welches an den Markt vor ein paar Jahren erinnert - als Corporate America auch still abgewartet hatte und auf ein besseres Wetter gehofft hatte und solche neuen Begriffe wie z.B. The New Paradigm, The New Economy etc. in den Mund nahm und später damit auf die Schnauze fielen, als die Ölpreise, die von den niedrigen $20ern in die niedrigen $30er angestiegen waren. Der letzte Strohhalm war dahin und die The New Economy hat Poof gemacht, die Blase platzte und Millionen an Jobs gingen verloren und nun plagen die USA ein gewaltiges Defizit, welches in den Orbit gestiegen ist.
Der US-$ hat schon ungefähr 30% von seinem Wert verloren und wird in der Zukunft noch weitere 50% verlieren.
Diese abwartende Haltung kann man in den USA schon wieder erkennen, während der Ölschock unerbittlich und ohne Nachlassen auf die Kosten der Unternehmen und die Ausgaben der Verbraucher niederschlägt.
Laßt euch nicht von den "höheren" Verbraucherausgaben in die Irre führen, weil die Ausgaben der Verbraucher aufgrund der höheren Transportkosten, höheren Energienpreisen, höheren medizinischen Kosten, höheren Commoditypreisen, höheren Importpreisen, usw. usw. usw. angestiegen sind.
Der Kapitalanleger hat eine Wahl - entweder ist er Teil von der abwartenden Haltung oder er ist smart genug und fügt seinem Portfolio physisches Gold und Silber hinzu als persönliche Absicherung.
