IBM Call--die Herausforderung

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und sie werden stimmen(!),dann sollte der 789 472 weiter steigen.

Für mich ist IBM ein Outperformer,da ich das Consultant-und Outsourcingmodell neben der IT Technologie für sehr einträglich halte.Der Chart richt auch nach GAP Closing,also hier mal ein bisschen mitnehmen.

IBM Meets Forecast, Offers Good Outlook THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2003 1:10 AM - AP Online  IBM  92.74 +0.02     Enter Symbol:    Enter Keyword:NEW YORK, Oct 16, 2003 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- IBM Corp.'s long-term strategy of embracing high-tech services more than traditional computer hardware sales paid off again in the third quarter, as Big Blue's profits rose 37 percent despite overall tough conditions for the high-tech industry. The results, released Wednesday, matched Wall Street's profit forecasts but fell just short of revenue expectations, disappointing investors who had hoped for more. However, IBM offered a relatively bright outlook for next year. In the three-month period that ended Sept. 30, IBM had net earnings of $1.79 billion, or $1.02 per share. In the comparable period of 2002, IBM showed profits of $1.31 billion, or 76 cents per share. Revenue jumped 9 percent to $21.52 billion in the third quarter, from $19.82 billion a year ago, though the gain would have been only 4 percent without currency fluctuations. The comparison figure from 2002 excludes discontinued operations such as the disk-drive business IBM sold to Hitachi Ltd. The consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call was for earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $21.86 billion. IBM shares sank $3.09, or 3.4 percent, in the extended trading session after closing at $92.74 on the New York Stock Exchange. IBM executives had been guarded about the future in previous earnings reports, but chairman and chief executive Sam Palmisano said "we are beginning to see signs that the economy has stabilized." Palmisano said IBM expects to add 10,000 new jobs next year. "As we look to 2004, more customers are expected to increase their investments in information technology," he said in a statement. "Although it is too early to say that a rebound is at hand, we are confident that we will benefit from both a pickup in (information-technology) spending and an economic recovery." Even so, John Joyce, IBM's chief financial officer, declined to raise short-term expectations. He told analysts on a conference call that the current consensus estimate for the October-to-December quarter - earnings of $1.51 per share on revenue of $25.0 billion - is "reasonable." With tech budgets still tight in the third quarter, IBM's services division stood out as a bright spot. Revenue jumped 17 percent - 11 percent without currency fluctuations - to $10.4 billion, nearly half the company's total. IBM bolstered its services business with last year's $4 billion acquisition of the consulting arm of PricewaterhouseCoopers. IBM said it signed more than $15 billion in services contracts in the quarter, most of them long-term deals. Joyce said a near-repeat performance of around $14 billion is likely in the fourth quarter. However, the services division's gross margin fell to 25.1 percent in the third quarter from 26.5 percent last year. "You need to see a gross margin trend in their favor before you can feel really good about services," said Marty Shagrin, an analyst with Victory Capital Management. Hardware remains the second-biggest slice of IBM's business, and it suffered a 1 percent drop in revenue, to $6.7 billion. The fall would have been 5 percent without fluctuations in the dollar. Perhaps the biggest blight on IBM's results has been its semiconductor operation, which makes chips for IBM servers and mainframes and for other companies, such as Apple Computer Inc. The division has had to cut jobs and pay at several factories recently. This earnings report revealed continued trouble in the chip-making technology group: a pretax loss of $96 million and a 30 percent drop in revenue, to $882 million. Joyce blamed much of the group's sales decline on IBM's decision to exit some businesses, and he said $20 million in restructuring charges contributed to the loss. He said the technology group's revenue probably would rise to $1 billion in the fourth quarter, though $1.1 billion in quarterly sales will be necessary for the division to break even. Year to date, IBM earned $4.9 billion, $2.77 per share, on revenue of $63.2 billion. Those figures all improved from the first three quarters of 2002, when IBM earned $2.6 billion, $1.47 per share, on revenue of $57.5 billion. --- On the Net:  

IBM hat über die Q 3 Zahlen ein Gap nach Süden aufgerissen;von 93,-- zu 88,--. Geht es weiter runter ist der 789 472 platt.Sollte GAP Closing angesagt sein,wären das rund 6%.Bei einem Hebel von gut 17 lauern also lockere 100%--allerdings auch Totalverlust.

Ich entscheide mich morgen früh.Ansonsten sucheich mir einen Optionsschein.Ich glaube,IBM ist sehr gut aufgestellt und sollte-so die Konjunktur anspringt-gut verdienen können.

Bis dann B.L.

IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile) has moved along solidly despite the tech slump of recent years, Barron's sums up in a cover story on the computing behemoth. Revenue gains have been mostly from acquisitions, such as PWC Consulting and Rational Software. Yet IBM's strategy for gaining outsourcing business and targeting high-end purchasers wins praise from Barron's. IBM has also built alliances with other companies via shared software sales programs that compete against Microsoft. Big Blue's stock multiple is around 20 times earnings, well below the 35 of Dell and 25 of Microsoft, Barron's says. With a potential for corporate spending to take off, Barron's says IBM could be positioned for big gains, but Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milunovich sets a price target of $97 without such a burst. Shares closed Friday at $88.26.

hatte immer Angst vor dem Rücksetzer im DOW.Aber meistens bringen Barron`s Empfehlungen eine schöne Bewegung.Wenn die Emmis das am Montag morgen nicht raffen,lege ich mir einen schönen Schein rein.Long auf 83,-- oder 85,-- Basis.Sollte klappen!

Ciao B.l.

aber die Emmis hatten den Schein heute morgen schon auf 0.42-0.45 getaxt(Basis 85,-- Long).Liegt aktuell knapp 40% vorne.Ich denke,mit dem Barron`s Artikel sollten bei einer guten Börse die 95,-- für IBM möglich sein.Schein wäre dann 1.00!

Manche longs behalten ihre Aktualität!

ciao B.L.

Da ist noch keine Trendwende erkennbar!

Nichts Long!!

Bei positiven Nachrichten, kann der negative Abwärtstrend, unterbrochen werden!