Gewinnwarnungen von den Firmen, die noch rechtzeitig vor der Ertragssaison auf Nummer Sicher gehen wollen.
Wednesday July 4, 11:54 am Eastern Time
Holiday Lull to Bring Corporate Fireworks
By Chelsea Emery
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Expect some corporate fireworks in the days after the July 4
Independence Day holiday as companies seize the last chance to push out some bad news
before the second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest next week.
Companies have already issued more
than 688 warnings about second-quarter results. Still, traders expect more
in the next few days as the dragging economy has slammed profits more
than expected and the holiday lull offers the opportunity to bloodlet when
many are at the beach.
``The second quarter was really bad and I think there will be a number of
preannouncements through the end of the week,'' said Uri Landesman,
who helps manage $250 million for AFA Management Partners.
There's reason to worry. Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index
are expected to report that earnings fell 17.4 percent in the second quarter
from the year-ago quarter, according to Thomson Financial/First Call.
That's the worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 1991, according to First Call.
Investors expect that companies will take these last few days before the quarterly reporting season to dump the last bits of
important information. The time before earnings reports start trickling in is called the ``confession period.'' The remaining days
of this week are particularly popular since many investors have taken the week off. Stock markets were closed early on
Tuesday and all day on Wednesday.
``If you have bad news to share, why not do it when no one is around to ask irate questions?'' Landesman said.
Traders at Northern Trust Co. were so convinced more warnings were coming, they spent some of their trading day on
Tuesday speculating which companies would be next, said Kevin Connellan, head trader at Northern Trust, which oversees
$390 billion.
Indeed, after exchanges closed early on Tuesday, software maker Compuware Corp. said it expected revenue from its
Professional Services Division to be about 3 percent less than analysts' forecasts for the period ended June 30. At the same
time, Compuware said profits will top expectations by about 10 percent.
To be sure, not all announcements will be bad news, said Joseph Kalinowski, equity strategist with Thomson Financial.
Sure, 788 or the 1,009 corporate statements so far this quarter have been warnings, but that's fewer than the same time last
quarter. At the same time, companies have issued more positive news, he said.
During the first quarter, 70 percent of a record 1,036 corporate statements were negative.
In addition, good news has made up 16 percent of the statements this quarter, more than the 14 percent last quarter.
``There are more negative preannouncements on the horizon, but it's safe to assume the worst in terms of confessions are
behind us,'' Kalinowski said.
Some investors aren't buying it, though.
Landesman said he expects more bad news this week, which ''means that we're still going to get burned.''
Gruß Dr. Broemme