Hedgefonds kaufen Kupfer Futures

Liu ein chinesischer Regierungangestellter hat Positionen zwischen 100000 und 200000 t aufgebaut,die zum 21.Dezember geliefert werden müssen in der Meinung ,dass Kupfer fallen werde.Kupfer ist jedoch gestiegen.Die Verluste für China können mehrere Hundert Millionen betragen laut China Daily.Jetzt gehen mehrere Hedgefonds long in Kupfer.Es gibt jedoch Stimmen,die warnen,denn China hat Kupfer gelagert und könne wohl doch liefern,dann müsse man sich Sorgen machen müsse um die Hedgefonds,die sich verspekulieren könnten.Liu jedenfalls scheint nach chinesischen Berichten seit Mitte Oktober unter Hausarrest zu stehen,sein Mobiltelefon ist abgeschaltet.....

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds including Winton Capital Management are buying copper on speculation China will purchase the metal to cover wrong-way bets by a government trader.Speculators helped send prices to a record high last week, saying China may need to buy as much as 200,000 tons of copper to cover losing bets by trader Liu Qibing. China's losses may run into hundreds of millions of dollars and are the result of Liu's personal actions, not those of the government, according to the state-run China Daily.``Somebody's going to have to make the deliveries, and they're going to have to buy them at much higher prices,'' said Stuart Flerlage, managing principal at New York-based Patronus Capital, a commodity fund invested in copper futures.China, the world's biggest user of copper, has sold metal it doesn't own on expectations the price will fall, said Wang Zheng from Shanghai Dalu Futures Co. today. London prices have risen 33 percent this year and reached a record $4,243 a ton Nov. 18. They increased as much as 2.3 percent today and hedge funds expect the rally to continue as China covers bets and demand outstrips supply.
Liu, who hasn't been seen publicly since October, built positions of between 100,000 and 200,000 tons of copper, which must be delivered to international markets by Dec. 21, the China Daily said Nov. 17, citing an unidentified official. The commitment may exceed publicly reported inventories by 60,000 tons.

David Threlkeld, president of trader and adviser Resolved Inc. in Scottsdale, Arizona, said hedge funds including Red Kite Management, Vega Asset Management LLC, Ospraie Management LP and Touradji Capital Management LP, all in New York, are buying copper.
``The market has been tight all year, and there is very little copper about,'' said Red Kite's Michael Farmer, the London-based former joint chief executive of MG Plc, which was the world's largest copper-trading company in 2000 before its acquisition by Enron Corp.``My concern is not that the Chinese default,'' said Resolved's Threlkeld. ``My concern is that the hedge funds may default because their only exit plan is to squeeze the Chinese. But what happens if the Chinese make the deliveries?''
China has copper inventories that it can use to deliver against the contracts, said Threlkeld. The country has been buying the metal for the last four years, and what it doesn't consume, it stockpiles, he said in an interview Nov. 23.
``Let's say it's long anywhere between 700,000 and 1 million tons of physical copper in China and let's say that Liu has a short position of between 100,000 and 200,000 tons, that's nothing because overall China is long copper,'' said Threlkeld.
O'Shaughnessy, whose company sells about $200 million of copper components a year in the U.S., Europe and Asia, said China probably will find a way to satisfy part of the obligation with deliveries and then roll over the rest to a later date.

Hedge funds and other large speculators increased their net- long positions in New York copper futures in the week ended Nov 15, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Speculative longs, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered shorts by 7,527 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Net-long positions rose by 1,788 contracts, or 31 percent, from a week earlier.

Liu has been under house arrest since mid-October, the Economic Observer, a provincial government newspaper, said this week. Messages and e-mails sent to his mobile and landline phones haven't been answered. His mobile phone is switched off. bloomberg heute

wegen Spekulation mit Kupfer schreibt China Daily,aber andere glauben,dass Liu den grössten Bluff inszeniert hat und die Preise absichtlich hochgetrieben hat,damit China seine Bestände zu einem guten Preis verkaufen kann.Angeblich soll Liu nächste Woche wieder in seinem Büro erscheinen....
www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2005/11/21/2003281139
The normally tight-lipped officials responsible for overseeing China's commodity trading appeared to try to clear things up this week and started to make public statements about the country's copper stockpiles and Liu. But some traders and other market participants say this is further confusing the issue, because they suspect that the Chinese are supplying false information in a deliberate attempt to move prices.
The government-controlled China Daily identified Liu on Thursday as the import division chief of the National Control Center for the Reserve Bureau, which manages China's commodities reserves, and said he had built a "massive short position" in copper. Liu sold short 110,000 to 220,000 tonnes of copper, which need to be delivered to London Metal Exchange warehouses by Dec. 21, the paper said. By comparison, the current inventory of the exchange's warehouses is about 140,000 tonnes. Liu acted alone, the paper said, and the government is not responsible for his actions. Maqsood Ahmed, an analyst at Calyon Global Trading in London, is one of several market participants who do not accept the report as the full truth. Like many others in London, he has heard that Liu will return to his job next week at a higher level. Ahmed thinks that Liu may have executed the "greatest bluff of all time" by driving prices up.

"The whole thing about a short position is a smoke screen" to keep prices high so the Chinese can unload their considerable stockpiles of copper, amassed in recent years, at peak prices, Ahmed asserts. The State Reserve Bureau declined to comment about Liu's whereabouts, the short position or the amount of copper it may have stockpiled.
Ahmed, who has been an outspoken critic of copper's high prices in recent months, was quick to add that his theory could be wrong. In fact, the only thing most market participants in London say they are sure of is that they do not know precisely where China stands in the market.
"Most of us don't know the full details or the size of any Chinese positions or if the positions exist at all," said Jeremy Goldwyn, head of industrial commodities at Sucden, a London commodities broker that has no business relationship with the State Reserve Bureau. "The only people who know for sure are the brokers involved," he said.

The brokers who executed Liu's trades and who may be stuck with his losses if the Chinese government refuses to pay or deliver copper to cover them, if they exist, have been silent. Several participants in the market say the Standard Bank of South Africa and Sempra Energy, based in San Diego, hold at least some of the contracts. Spokeswomen from Standard and Sempra declined to comment on the issue.
Obtaining reliable information in the market, particularly about closely guarded end users like the Chinese, is impossible, participants say.

"You can only speculate on what's been published and whether it's true or not," added one London metals broker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to comment to the news media.Other copper end-users, the manufacturers who actually need the physical product and are generally active in the futures market, are terrified to trade at all, the broker said, because they have no idea whether the market will plummet or continue its ascent.

In a sign of the market's hair-trigger jumpiness, prices dropped US$90 in five minutes on Wednesday, traders said, after Reuters, citing a bureau official, said the bureau was moving to export 200,000 tonnes of copper.
After the decline, some traders quickly decided the Chinese government was spreading that information to drive prices down, perhaps to cover Liu's short position, and drove it up instead by the close of the market."If you were going to export that much, why would you let the market know?" the broker said.

Whatever happens to Liu, analysts expect the market to be bumpy toward the end of the year.

Yesterday, the benchmark LME three-month copper contract was trading at US$4,049.5 a ton in the morning, slipping US$160 a ton from Tuesday close on the Shanghai futures market.

"The continued sale shows SRB's resolve to push down copper prices," said Wu Zhigang, a veteran futures trader and copper analyst.
"By announcing its third auction, SRB intends to keep the price momentum downwards," said Lei Hongwei, a trader with Beijing CIFCO, a subsidiary of China International Futures Co Ltd (CIFCO).

"SRB hopes to convince the market that it has adequate 'ammunition' and is resolved to drive down copper prices," said Lei. He predicted that SRB would continue sales if Shanghai futures bounce back.
In the second auction yesterday, the metal traded between 37,350 yuan (US$4,623) and 37,850 yuan (US$4,684) a ton.
"The auction price was a little bit too high, which resulted in many failed bids," said Zhu Xinchang, a manager from Ningbo Jintian Copper Group, China's largest copper processor.
About 6,000 tons were left unsold, said Zhang, who participated in the auction.

(China Daily 11/24/2005 page1

schliesslich mach ich mir nicht sone Mühe,damit das in dem Arivagrab versinkt

MfG Bernie