shares of eCobalt Solutions (6% of issued and outstanding) for C$0.375/sh. To fund the
acquisition, made “for investment purposes”, First Cobalt intends to issue 21,265,809
shares at C$0.17/sh. The common shares issued will be subject to a statutory hold of
four months plus one day and customary regulatory and stock exchange approvals.
What’s positive from the perspective of an eCobalt shareholder perspective?
• As described in Lifeline thrown, published 9 April, eCobalt and Jervois Mining (JRV:
ASX | Not rated) announced a friendly agreement to combine. Under the terms of the
arrangement, Jervois will acquire all the issued and outstanding common shares of
eCobalt that it does not already own (7.3Msh or 4.5%). Each share of eCobalt will be
exchanged for 1.65 shares of Jervois, representing an implied offer price of C$0.36
per eCobalt share based on the closing price of Jervois’ shares at 29 March.
• Jervois’ share price has appreciated in the interim such that the offer is now worth just
under C$0.44 to the eCobalt shareholder. This is a 34% premium to eCobalt’s current
share price. The large premium suggests skepticism on the part of the market that
the deal will close. First Cobalt’s gambit may, however, nudge the market to close the
gap somewhat. At the current level, the market is valuing eCobalt at 0.21x our NAV
estimate as compared to the 0.28x mean multiple for covered non-precious metal
peers.
What’s positive from the perspective of a First Cobalt shareholder?
• From an investment perspective, First Cobalt is betting that the New Jervois deal
closes as it captures a quick ~34% return.
• First Cobalt, like all pre-cash flow companies, ongoingly seeks capital. With this deal,
the company has uncovered an investor willing to invest in its business plan at market
– a considerably better prospect than tapping the moribund Street.
• Although a 6% interest in eCobalt is insufficient to block the New Jervois deal, the
move may cause pause for reflection amongst existing eCobalt shareholders that must
approve it (at least 2/3 of the votes cast at a special meeting expected in Q3/19).
Does this give First Cobalt leverage in its quest to gain access to feed for its Cobalt,
Ontario refinery restart (see Refining its options, 3 April)? After all, there may be
operational synergies between First Cobalt’s Iron Creek Cobalt Project and eCobalt’s
Idaho Cobalt Project, both located within a few kilometres on the Idaho Cobalt Belt.
• First Cobalt is trading at 0.17x our NAV estimate as compared to the 0.28x mean
multiple for covered non-precious metal peers.
As we have noted before, the growth in EV sales penetration is inexorable. Automobile
manufacturers appear to be relying on battery manufacturers to build the necessary raw
materials supply chain and, in our view, we have not seen sufficient investment in that
supply chain to feed EV demand as forecast in 2023-2024 and beyond. We speculate
that a period of consolidation in the battery materials space may be upon us, especially
given the low valuations applied by the market today.
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recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent and
objective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring
analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research.
Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of
Canaccord Genuity LLC and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications
with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Sector Coverage
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analysts of the report.
Investment Recommendation
Date and time of first dissemination: May 01, 2019, 16:23 ET
Date and time of production: May 01, 2019, 16:23 ET
Compendium Report
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affiliated companies hereby direct the reader to the specific disclosures related to the subject companies discussed in this
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Past performance
In line with Article 44(4)(b), MiFID II Delegated Regulation, we disclose price performance for the preceding five years or the whole period
for which the financial instrument has been offered or investment service provided where less than five years. Please note price history
refers to actual past performance, and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future price and/or performance.
Target Price / Valuation Methodology:
eCobalt Solutions Inc. - ECS
We project Idaho Cobalt Project cash flows on our spot pricing discounted at 8% WACC to generate a $138M project NAV. Net corporate
adjustments of $141M include $108M raised (at C$0.72/sh, 314M shares, fully funded). We apply a 1.0x multiple to generate a target
NAVPS of C$0.89, supporting a rounded target price of C$0.90.
First Cobalt Corp. - FCC
We value First Cobalt’s assets on a spot cobalt basis, currently US$28/lb. Our valuation yields a project NAV of $244 million or $0.58/
sh. We add net corporate adjustments of $35 million or $0.08/sh with 421 million shares outstanding. We apply a 1.0x multiple to the
corporate NAVPS of $0.66 to yield our target NAVPS of $0.66, which supports a rounded target price of C$0.70.
Risks to achieving Target Price / Valuation:
eCobalt Solutions Inc. - ECS
In our view, the primary risks to our valuation and target for eCobalt include: our cobalt price deck, which assumes significant supply
constraints at a time of burgeoning growth in lithium-ion battery use; the company’s reliance on capital markets to fund development;
and potential mining challenges in that veins and lenses may be relatively narrow.
First Cobalt Corp. - FCC
Aside from the usual risks associated with exploration and development, risks center on cobalt pricing, the technical assumptions we
have made in our project valuations in advance of the company’s delivery of technical reports, and potential risks from environmental
and safety legacies in the Cobalt mining camp in Ontario.
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