Ich bin seit Frühjahr auch zunehmend bärisch eingestellt, mache mir aber Sorgen, dass es langsam ziemlich voll wird im "Bären-Camp". Aktuell liegt das Put/Call-Verhältnis bei Index-Optionen in USA bei 1,85, neutral ist ein Wert von 1. Bei Einzelaktien hingegen liegt es bei nur 0,63. Offenbar haben sich viele Leute mit Index-Shorts als Hedge gegen ihre Long-Positionen vor Rückschlägen abgesichert. Eine solche Positionierung wirkt aber oft als "Optionsbarriere", die letztlich verhindert, dass der "Versicherungsfall" eintritt.
Andererseits gab es in der Vergangenheit (z. b. 1974) auch Situationen, in denen viele Leute bärisch waren und Aktien trotzdem stark fielen:
Die bärische Sicht scheint mir zurzeit nicht ganz unbegründet, denn Wall Street "spinnt" mal wieder: Die Tatsache, dass die US-Wirtschaft abkühlt, wird fast ausschließlich von der Zinsseite her wahrgenommen [womit wir wieder beim Eingangs-Thema wären]. Je schlechter die Wirtschaftsdaten, desto höher steigen die Aktienkurse, weil "die Gefahr weiterer Zinssenkungen durch die Fed kleiner wird". Irgendwann einmal aber wird sich das Abflauen in Gewinnrückgängen der Firmen niederschlagen - und deren Aktienkurse notwendigerweise gen Süden schicken. Der Rückgang der Märkte ist demnach nur eine Frage der Zeit.
Die Börse ist ein dynamisches System, das Mehrheiten abstraft. D.h. die Märkte entwickeln sich immer so, dass möglichst viele Marktteilnehmer Geld verlieren. Die Frage lautet daher. Gibt es zurzeit mehr Bullen als Bären oder mehr Bären als Bullen? Meine Vermutung ist, dass zurzeit die Zahl der "dämlichen Bullen" (s. o.) höher ist als die Zahl der "dämlichen Bären", so dass die Bären-Seite am Ende Übergewicht gewinnt.
Die Märkte machen es momentan sehr schwer, den Short-Einstieg richtig zu "timen". Durch weitere schlechte Nachrichten, die es ja in letzter Zeit zuhauf gab, wird der Markt teilweise weiter nach oben getrieben - gemäß der "Logik" im vorletzten Absatz. Wann dieser "Wahnsinn" ein Ende findet, lässt sich kaum vorhersagen. Man weiß lediglich, dass das auf Dauer eigentlich nicht funktionieren kann. Steigen die Aktien trotzdem 10 % weiter, so ist dies für Shorts aber nur ein schwacher Trost...
Im Artikel unten schreibt M. Manning - der viele Gründe für einen Abverkauf sieht - dass die vielen Bären einen Kontraindikator darstellen, der dies verhindert. Ich hingegen glaube, man kann in diesem Fall schon wieder einen Schritt weiter gehen und behaupten: Auch dieser Mann ist nicht allein. Es gibt inzwischen verdammt viele Leute, die den vielen Bären einen Short-Squeeze verpassen möchten. Gehen nächste Woche zu diesem Zweck zu viele Leute long, so könnten sie ihrerseits unter Druck geraten, wenn abermals ungünstige Zahlen reinkommen (hohe Inflation, schwache US-Wirtschaft). Dann könnten die Indizes TROTZDEM plötzlich drehen - und die Bullen sind plötzlich selber die Dummen, weil sie es sind, die nun verkaufen müssen und damit den Boden für die Bären bereiten.
Technical Analysis
Negative Sentiment Could Get Scrambled
By Mark Manning
Street.com Contributor
8/25/2006 1:00 PM EDT
Sometimes when you look at the markets, certain scenarios just look too easy. For instance, take the weakness that I have been pointing out for months, particularly in the small-caps, mid-caps and emerging markets.
I also have mentioned signs showing that the economy is weakening, and reminded readers that a four-year cycle low normally occurs in the fall of the second year of the presidential term.
Don't forget that the markets' weakest months are August, September and October. And when you look at most charts, you have technical confirmation that the majority of markets are very weak and that the next move will be down.
So what's wrong with easy setups? Everyone sees them!
When everyone sees the obvious and leans in that direction, the market finds a way to relieve the masses of their hard-earned cash by confounding them and doing the exact opposite of what's expected.
There has been a lot of talk about the presidential cycle, which I discussed on May 2 and again Aug. 2. Now other media outlets have picked up on the subject and are discussing how consistent this cycle is.
Tie that in with poor market action, bearish individual investors, negative sentiment and the weakest months for the market just ahead, and you have an almost perfect shorting opportunity -- or do you?
Let's look at a theory that my partner and I came up with while having a strategy meeting Thursday.
Most money managers are on vacation until after Labor Day. We believe that when the managers and traders return and see the high level of shorts and negative sentiment in the market, they could go on a buying spree. It would be quite easy to squeeze the shorts and quickly stack up several percentage points of profit in a brief period of time.
I don't know if such a scenario will develop, but it seems like an easy way for traders to scramble the market. This, again, is the reason I remain in the neutral camp until we have a clear direction. The next couple of weeks are probably going to result in a low-volume range, unless some catalyst shows up to push the market in one direction or the other.
Even though these risks exist, we still have to let the market be our guide. As always, consider price first, then volume; everything else comes a distant third. In this market, price and volume are the only metrics that give us a clear view of the action. Fundamentals don't, sentiment doesn't, economic conditions don't. So we have to let the market lead us here.
Let's take a look at the X-rays and see where we stand now, and how you can capture some of an upside run if traders come back from vacation and go on a buying spree.
The S&P 500 continues to consolidate above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Investors who want to catch a move higher could use buy stops above the recent highs. However, the May highs will not be an easy level to breach and hold above. If the index breaks below 1290, I would remain cautious.
The Nasdaq 100 has been acting better after the waterfall drop of May through July. It broke above the 50-day moving average on increasing volume and pulled back on lighter volume. If it can hold the current level, it may break above the 1585 level, where it could have a good shot at the 1625-50 area.
The Semiconductor Index is an important proxy for the market, and it, too, has been acting better. It has the same constructive price and volume action that the Nasdaq 100 has. A break above 452 would give this index a good shot at the 475-500 area.
Small-caps continue to lag. The S&P SmallCap 600 keeps failing at resistance areas when it bounces higher. It looks like this index will easily test the July lows. If that area fails, it could lead to another big leg down.
The S&P MidCap 400 Index also has a very weak technical pattern and continues to remain in a downtrend. It is also important for this index to hold above the July lows.
From the action in the Consumer Staples Spyder (XLP) , you can see where institutional money continues to flock for safety. As I've said before, when pros think the economy is slowing, they move out of growth areas and head to safe havens like consumer staples.
The S&P Retail Index is another important indicator of the health of the economy, and the picture isn't good. The recent move up was met with heavy selling. Now the index looks headed for the July lows.
Even though we could get a spike up when the institutional money managers return from vacation, I continue to believe any move higher will be met with profit-taking at resistance areas.
I will become more positive on this market when retail, transports, commodities, brokers and technology stocks start acting better. We need new leadership with solid bases to buy in order to sustain a new leg higher. I just don't see that at his point.
I have developed money-management rules that guide me to reduce my exposure to the market when risks are high. Whether the market spikes higher here doesn't matter to me; my rules say to protect capital in this type of environment, and that's what I'm doing.
At time of publication, Manning had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time. Mark Manning, AAMS, is an Accredited Asset Management Specialist and Registered Investment Advisor with Butler, Wick & Co., where he specializes in wealth management. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.
