bei freerealtimt.com Danach wird kaum mehr Öl produziert.Im September sahen die Daten noch besser aus:OPEC Members Closer to Crude Finish Line -- 10:00 AM EST
by Rick Olivere, CFA
Recently released crude oil production estimates by Bloomberg for October indicate production of the 10 participating members of OPEC increased 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 26.49m b/d from September. Iraq, which is not participating in this agreement and is subject to the United Nations oil for food program, increased production to 3.08m b/d from 2.87m b/d in September. We continue to believe that limited excess capacity, as shown in the table below, and the level of inventories of crude oil suggest that oil prices are vulnerable to both production disruptions and to winter-like temperatures. In our opinion, this is a bullish backdrop for energy and energy service shares.
Our Buy recommendations and target prices are shown in the following table.
Buy Recommendations Ticker Price Price Potential
11/03/2000 Target Gain
Oil Producers/Refiners
Amerada Hess AHC $63.19 $80.00 27%
BurlingtonResources BR $36.81 $71.00 93%
BP BP $49.19 $65.00 32%
Chevron CHV $81.88 $110.00 34%
Forest Oil FST $14.50 $32.00 121%
Occidental Petroleum OXY $20.13 $40.00 99%
Valero Energy VLO $34.25 $50.00 46%
Energy Service
BakerHughes BHI $37.25 $45.00 21%
CooperCameron CAM $58.13 $85.00 46%
Diamond Offshore DO $35.50 $55.00 55%
Friede Goldman Halter FGH $6.19 $20.00 223%
Grey Wolf GW $3.94 $12.00 205%
Halliburton HAL $38.38 $55.00 43%
Marine Drilling MRL $25.19 $35.00 39%
Nabors Industries NBR $52.97 $70.00 32%
Parker Drilling PKD $6.00 $20.00 233%
Pride International PDE $25.44 $52.00 104%
Rowan Companies RDC $25.63 $70.00 173%
SantaFe Internat. SDC $ 38.88 $82.00 111%
Schlumberger SLB $79.13 $100.00 26%
Varco International VRC $18.38 $30.00 63%
The following table suggests the modest amounts of excess production capacity outside of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This table shows the estimated production for September and October 2000, and the sustainable production capacity estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) September Oil Market report. Since Kuwait has indicated its inability to increase production, the 200,000 b/d excess capacity estimate of IEA is suspect.
Note also that political unrest in Nigeria has resulted in production below both the September target (2.15m b/d) and the Oct. 31 target (2.198m b/d). It also highlights the tightness of the current balance of the consumption and production of crude oil that is likely to serve as another catalyst for an extended drilling cycle.
OPEC Production and Capacity (barrels per day in 000s) Country October production September production Estimated Capacity Excess Capacity vs. October
Saudi Arabia 8,920 8,800 10,500 1,580
Iran 3,800 3,720 3,730 (70)
Venezuela 2,930 2,930 2,950 20
Kuwait 2,190 2,170 2,400 210
United Arab Emirates 2,300 2,310 2,400 100
Nigeria 2,090 1,990 2,200 110
Libya 1,430 1,430 1,450 20
Indonesia 1,300 1,310 1,350 50
Algeria 830 820 900 70
Qatar 700 710 750 50
Total OPEC 10 26,490 26,190 28,630 2,140
Iraq 3,080 2,870 3,000 (80)
TOTAL 29,570 29,060 31,630 2,060
Source: Bloomberg; IEA, 9/00
Aber gestern wurde empfohlen Baker Hughes als Turnaroundwert sowie Grey Wolf(Interessanter Small Cap- Wert mit höchstem Kursziel) und Nabor Industries als Drillingwerte zu kaufen
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