COOP News (ehemals: Wamu /WMIH)

...Fortsetzung vom "Amerikanischen Hollywood Märchen"

www.boardpost.net/forum/index.php?topic=2952.msg41792#msg41792

Zitat kenwalker:

Your "sloppy" SWOT analysis trumps my country boy hip shot analysis but seeing as we agree ....................

PMI ( especially reinsurance ) is a crap shoot at best and the experts can / could not say just what WMMRC is worth so you would expect it to be equally hard to value any PMI / reinsurer. Maybe in more consistant times with not so many moving parts but nowdays, who knows.

PMI companies are fast improving and we need to get our act together and start moving. I don't want them to make a mistake but at the same time bargain hunting in these times is not for the timid.

--------------------

Zitat kenwalker: 

I know this ain't as sexy as talking about purchasing Dell but let's face it, reinsurance is what we got and reinsurance the the most logical choice of what we'll get.

What's that purchase going to look like? Something along the line of what we got with WMMRC and having tried to understand what we got in WMMRC I found that akin to measuring smoke. These PMI insurers ain't selling hotdogs they are selling bets on the top 20% of the highest loan-to-value loans held by millions of individuals, with a million different personal situations, on millions of different properties, located all around the country, in the most radical housing market in history. If that ain't bad enough WMMRC is a reinsurer with individualized contracts to these PMI co's. That makes it hard ..................... but wait I ain't through yet. ( sounds like an infomercial )

These companies ain't just; money in - money out = profit ( loss ). Oh heck no these co's are highly capitalized and highly regulated and just like everyone else when it come to housing, these regulators may have charts and graphs to back up their opinion but bottom line ..................... they don't have a clue but they can and do have a say.

and there is more

When these bets go bad you have options as to how you "pay up". Pay me now, pay me later, or just take the property to delay the bet till later, some times much later.

This is what we got, IMHO this is what we most likely will get more of. The question remains; How do you measure smoke? Why do you care? It appears to me that WMMRC and all these other PMI / reinsurers are valued on current short term profit / loss not on their real long term worth.

-----------------

Zitat bgriffinokc:

Hey Ken,

Who know better than a builder with 20-40 years experience...We have seen it all, haven't we?

-----------------

Zitat investorwad:

And we already know how fond hedge funds are of the reinsurance biz. Dead on, Char.

-----------

Zitat sunshine:

Ken,

So true in your statement of having no "CONTROL" once a re-in policy is written. The success of the re-ins industries in the past was predicated on the notion people would not walk away somehow and some way. The 2007-2010 fiasco changed all that historical premise. Like you said, it is not for the faint hearted and "shallow" pocket folks for sure. Given WMIH's only surviving sub being in the re-ins business albeit in runoff mode, it is logical for all of us to see where they may be looking plus their disclosure in their 10k statement ( the origin of this topic).

Your last statement ( underlined) is being treated just like any companies, be it DELL, FB or even JPM. Having said that, I am sure the strategic initiative committee will/ would have to consider the risk and reward in choosing the ultimate target . Am also pretty certain our funding partners will have the "final" say ( also would not be surprised some of them have already received briefing on their efforts).

Thanks for the discussion.

----------------

Zitat kenwalker:

As far as the 2007-2010 fiasco it did screw up the "historical premise" like you said. What use to be valued by an educated guess is now smoke.

I don't kid myself that I have any influence over "strategic initiative committee", my intent is to have a discussion and maybe a group concensus on 1) what we got in WMMRC and 2) what IMHO we may purchase so we can ( again collectively ) understand what it is worth. Maybe we get bought out / maybe we sell on a price increase / a lot of maybe's and where I'm willing to buy on a "gut feeling" I want to sell with knowledge.

PMI / reinsurance ain't like much else, we need our heads wrapped around how it works and what it's worth. I'll speculate with the best of them when it come to future PPS ( with or without Catz's links / JK ) but I'm here to understand the best I can by all we can learn from each other.

Thanks you for the discussion.

---------------

Zitat boarddork:

I was thinking last night - hedge funds, wall street, pump and dump of real estate, what's the next target, and why WMMRC?

I flip foreclosures homes in Seattle. Like many big cities, I've seen hedge funds from Boston and other areas buying up hordes of homes here in Seattle, paying retail and much more than retail most of the time, and turning them into rentals; with the long term plan (I think) of flipping them for handsome profits when the market is at level they can profit at.

however,

Imagine WMMRC or any reinsurance business' profits when billions worth of rentals are sold and turned into non-toxic mortgages, with billions of new reinsurance customers, plus toxic losses more in line with historical averages.

A huge windfall, especially if you have NOLS or other credits.

Seattle is nearly reached pre-crash prices and my last home sold had 4 full price/no inspection offers and a $30k close over ask. Same story in many other big cities as well where the hedgies are shopping. Probably next year or two as home prices continue to skyrocket, many of these homes could be flipped from rental to homeowner for a modest profit - and if you owned the reinsurer,,,,,,,Not a bad forward looking plan for WMIH, at a minimum.

ADDED: Many of these Seattle homes are Blackstone owned and elsewhere, and WMIH got Blackstone, hmmmm

-------------

Zitatende

MfG.L:)