Der USA Bären-Thread

www.iea.org/reports/oil-2021
"...Global oil demand, still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, is unlikely to catch up with its pre-Covid trajectory. In 2020, the start of our forecast period, oil demand was nearly 9 mb/d below the level seen in 2019, and it is not expected to return to that level before 2023. In the absence of more rapid policy intervention and behavioural changes, longer-term drivers of growth will continue to push up oil demand. As a result, by 2026, global oil consumption is projected to reach 104.1 mb/d. This would represent an increase of 4.4 mb/d from 2019 levels. Oil demand in 2025 is set to be 2.5 mb/d lower than was forecast a year ago in our Oil 2020 report.....
The Covid-induced demand shock and a shifting momentum towards investment in clean energy are set to slow the expansion of the world’s oil production capacity over our six-year forecast period. At the same time, the historic collapse in demand in 2020 resulted in a record 9 mb/d spare production capacity cushion that would be enough to keep global markets comfortable at least for the next several years.
Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that upstream investments and expansion plans have been scaled back. In 2020, operators spent one-third less than planned at the start of the year...."

und gestern fielen die Aktien von Schlumberger, Conoco Phl und Exxon  

Wort bei den Rundfunk- und Fernsehmechanikern:

"Kein Bild, kein Ton -> Stecker draußen"

Wirecard lässt grüßen.

Sattes Brett für die Wasserstoffzocker

weil die Fed (blöderweise) sagt, die Zinsen erst 2023 wieder erhöhen zu wollen. Solche Aussagen haben eine geringe Halbwertszeit. Sollte die Inflation galoppieren, könnten die Leitzinsen schon im Sommer wieder erhöht werden müssen.

in the coming days, the news of which will unleash another buying spree....an outcome which markets are clearly frontrunning, because Eminis soared in kneejerk response to the Fed's SLR comment after moving sharply higher earlier...
.. the dollar plumbed new lows, with the Bloomberg dollar index sliding to a 2 week low and breaching the 100-DMA...
.. but more importantly, the 10Y yield - which had been sticky around 1.66% amid the SLR confusion - slumped, giving risk assets a second wind.

www.zerohedge.com/markets/...will-give-slr-update-coming-days

"...That’s the bond market equivalent of dropping the hammer on the Fed’s happy narrative and risking losing the new market highs that ensued on the heels of Powell’s comments yesterday. Failed highs on charts never look pretty and risk a reversion trade of size especially as tech is once again under pressure in overnight following the renewed rise in yields.

Why is it all so critical?

Because, like in 2000, if you lose tech you may eventually lose the entire market even though the market may pretend tech is no longer important.And be clear: $SPX, $DJIA and $RUT making new highs while $NDX is clearly not  is an important sign of divergence:...
Indeed we may be staring at a bear flag here similar to the construct we saw in 2020:..."

www.zerohedge.com/markets/...r-drop-imminent-yields-or-stocks

www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

"The fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption."..Premium
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...-says-fed-foaming-runway-slr-end

www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-powell-slr-idUSKBN2B92QI
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank will share an update on a bank liquidity rule in the “coming days.”
An exemption on the “supplemental leverage ratio” was put in place at the start of the coronavirus pandemic to encourage big banks to lend and support bond and short-term funding markets. The exemption, which reduced the amount of capital banks must hold against Treasurys and some deposits, is currently set to expire on March 31.

Battered
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...shed-tech-wrecked-bonds-battered
Oil crashed today - WTI back below $60 - down five straight days, longest losing streak since Feb 2020 and fell the most since June 2020 today...
Bonds were clubbed like a baby seal overnight after rallying back on the Powell statement. NOTE that once again bonds were bid after Europe closed...
10Y Yields topped 1.75% intraday and reversed...
30Y topped 2.50% and reversed lower..
And as bond yields surged, big-tech was battered, erasing all of the Powell gains and dragging the rest of the market down with it. On the day, Nasdaq and Small Caps were both monkey-hammered,
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...shed-tech-wrecked-bonds-battered
Nasdaq tumbles 3% as soaring yields hit tech shares
www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/stock-market-open-to-close-news.html
und der Future Nasdaq ist bei minus 3%

www.zerohedge.com/markets/...d-loans-floundering-greensill-ft
"...Greensill then deployed Cameron to lobby his former colleagues. The former prime minister approached the Treasury and 10 Downing Street — through both his personal email and at least one phone call, according to two people familiar with the conversations. The FT contacted both Cameron and his spokesman asking for comment but they did not respond...."

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/18/...sill-access-covid/
His reported actions, though emails and phone calls, came on top of 10 virtual meetings Greensill had with the two most senior officials at the Treasury between March and June last year.
According to a Freedom of Information request by the FT, Greensill enlisted Mr Cameron after Treasury officials were reluctant to include it in the Bank of England’s Covid Corporate Financing Facility, despite the group saying “concerns about their eligibility for the CCFF were misplaced or could not be addressed”.

www.zerohedge.com/markets/...rt-spiking-stock-market-leverage

wolfstreet.com/2021/03/17/...art-of-a-zoo-that-has-gone-nuts/

Stock Market Leverage Spikes in Historic Manner: Another WTF Chart of a Zoo that Has Gone Nuts

In the current craze that encompasses everything from sneakers and NFTs to stocks, where valuations don’t matter because of widespread certainty that valuations will be even greater in a few days, and where folks are chasing lottery-type returns, supported by the Fed’s interest rate repression and $3 trillion in asset purchases, and by the government’s trillions of dollars of handouts and bailouts – well, in this perfect world, there is a fly in the ointment: Vast amounts of leverage, including stock market leverage.

Margin debt – the amount that individuals and institutions borrow against their stock holdings as tracked by FINRA at its member brokerage firms – is just one indication of stock market leverage. But FINRA reports it monthly. Other types of stock market leverage are not reported at all, or are disclosed only piecemeal in SEC filings by brokers and banks that lend to their clients against their portfolios, such as Securities-Based Loans (SBLs). No one knows how much total stock market leverage there is. But margin debt shows the trend.

In February, margin debt jumped by another $15 billion to $813 billion, according to FINRA. Over the past four months, margin debt has soared by $154 billion, a historic surge to historic highs. Compared to February last year, margin debt has skyrocketed by $269 billion, or by nearly 50%, for another WTF sign that the zoo has gone nuts:

www.cnbc.com/2021/03/19/...banks-to-relax-capital-levels.html
The Federal Reserve on Friday declined to extend a pandemic-era rule that relaxed the amount of capital banks had to maintain against Treasurys and other holdings, in a move that could upset Wall Street and the bond market.The decision to relax the capital requirements has been widely viewed as key to calming what had been tumultuous Treasury markets in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. A need for cash had caused a massive sell-off in the bond market that the Fed helped to cover through its liquidity programs."

announcement
U.S. 10 Year Treasury  1,73

stimmt konnte man die letzten Wochen immer wieder beobachten
www.cnbc.com/2021/03/19/...ning-round-keep-buying-boeing.html

Ich habe den aktuellen Fall-"Chart" per Hand (blau) so weitergezeichnet, wie er aussehen würde, wenn die aktuelle Pandemie genauso weiter liefe wie die Spanische Grippe von 100 Jahren.

... we pointed out an observation from Goldman's Prime Broker desk, which noted that halfway through the week, Goldman traders saw the "largest global short sales since May" with the GS Prime book was net sold yesterday (-0.9 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year), driven by short sales outpacing long buys 1.7 to 1." In fact, the mid-week puke wasn't so much selling as short-selling, as "modest net selling (-0.5 SDs) was driven by short sales outpacing long buys 1.5 to 1."
This prompted us to predict that what was coming would be a "mega squeeze" in stocks.

Sure enough just a few days later, on March 10, when stocks did explode higher in the second week of March, Goldman's Prime Brokerage Service observed that Tuesday's eruption was the result of "risk unwind in Macro Products vs. large net buying in Single Names" led by TMT and Consumer Disc stocks, with the Goldman Prime book net bought for a fifth straight day in which "trading flows were risk-off with short covers outpacing long sales 4 to 1.
Commenting on the move, Andrew Brenner, the head of international fixed-income at NatAlliance Securities in New York told Bloomberg that “we see yesterday’s move as short covering without legs."
www.zerohedge.com/markets/another-mega-short-squeeze-deck

das tröstet auch nicht, weil man irgendwann entnervt verkauft, die Schwachen werden rausgeschüttelt?

www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/...assengers-next-caribbean-cruise
mach ich eh nicht solche Massenfahrten !

On 3 March, Bloomberg reported “European Central Bank policy makers are downplaying concerns over rising bond yields, suggesting they can manage the risk to the euro-area economy with verbal interventions including a pledge to accelerate bond-buying if needed.”

Then last week, the story changed: the ECB vowed that: “Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year”.

What had happened is that bond yields had started to rise, threatening to bankrupt the whole Eurozone network if the trend continued. That network is like a basket of rotten apples. It is the consequence not just of a flawed system, but of policies introduced to rescue Spain from soaring bond yields in 2012. That was when Mario Draghi, the ECB’s President said he was ready to do whatever it takes to save the euro, adding, “Believe me, it will be enough”.It was. The threat of intervention was enough to drive Spanish bond yields down and is probably behind the complacent thinking in the 3 March statement. But as the other bookend to Draghi’s promise to deploy bond purchasing programmes, Lagarde’s promised intervention is of necessity far larger.
www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecbs-financial-suttee

EZB im Kaufrausch – Lagarde erhöht Anleihekäufe um 500 Milliarden Euro
Christine Lagarde, die Präsidentin der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), hat einen noch expansiveren geldpolitischen Kurs angekündigt. Das unter dem Kürzel PEPP bekannte Anleihekaufprogramm in der Corona-Pandemie wird um eine halbe Billion auf 1,85 Billionen Euro erhöht.
Außerdem kündigte sie an, dass die Nettozukäufe bis März 2022 laufen sollen, zuvor galt Mitte 2021 als vorläufiges Ende. Zugleich verlängerte die EZB die Frist, in der das Programm durch Ersatzkäufe ein stabiles Volumen behalten soll, um ein Jahr bis mindestens Ende 2023.
www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/...rtWekfL7i9VZ-ap3

www.wiwo.de/...keit-ihrer-notfall-anleihekaeufe/27007718.html
15. März 2021
Die Währungshüter stemmen sich mit mehr Tempo bei ihren Krisen-Anleihekäufen gegen einen Anstieg der Renditen von Staatsanleihen der Euro-Länder....

Bless  all Centralbanks ,   keep Printing Money

all over the World !     But the normal crowds are  losing his Money to the Oven.

Please keep an eye on my wheelbarrow  the are more value .... Soon... than Money  

www.marketwatch.com/story/...s-central-bank-chief-11616403895

www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/...ira-stuerzt-ab-article22441868.html

...Die türkische Lira ist nach der Entlassung des Notenbankchefs des Landes auf Talfahrt gegangen. Am Morgen wurde ein US-Dollar für 7,78 Lira gehandelt. Damit ist der Kurs im Vergleich zum Freitag um knapp acht Prozent abgerutscht. In der vergangenen Nacht war der Kurseinbruch zeitweise noch heftiger ausgefallen: Bis zu 8,47 Lira mussten für einen Dollar gezahlt werden....

... In der Nacht zu Samstag hatte der türkische Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan den Zentralbankchef Naci Agbal entlassen. Die Entscheidung erfolgte nur wenige Tage, nachdem die türkische Notenbank den Leitzins überraschend deutlich um 2 Prozentpunkte auf 19 Prozent angehoben hatte [A.L.: Zimbabwe lässt grüßen...]. Neuer Notenbankchef wird Sahap Kavcioglu, ehemaliger Abgeordneter von Erdogans Regierungspartei AKP.

Agbal hatte in seiner kurzen Amtszeit versucht, mit den Zinserhöhungen die drastische Inflation in der Türkei unter Kontrolle zu bekommen. Erdogan hatte sich hingegen immer wieder für niedrige Zinsen ausgesprochen. Agbal war erst Anfang November als Zentralbankchef eingesetzt worden und galt als ehemaliger Finanzminister als Verbündeter Erdogans. Es war das dritte Mal seit Mitte 2019, dass Erdogan den Notenbankchef entließ....