Original-Research: The NAGA Group AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu The NAGA Group AG
Unternehmen: The NAGA Group AG ISIN: DE000A161NR7
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment Empfehlung: BUY Kursziel: 2.70 EUR Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2020 Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Cosmin Filker
Q1 figures 2020 significantly above our expectations, forecasts for 2020 and 2021 raised, old price target reached, new price target raised to EUR2.70
According to preliminary figures, The NAGA Group AG (NAGA) generated a significant increase in revenues to EUR 7.0 million (previous year: EUR 0.6 million) in the first quarter of 2020. It is particularly noteworthy that this is exclusively trade and service revenue, which is therefore fully attributable to the operating business. The basis for this development is the significant increase in the number of active accounts, which has doubled since the beginning of the year and as a result of that the trading volume has been expanded to a new quarterly record of EUR 23 billion. After the 2019 financial year was marked by substantial restructuring, NAGA had shown a positive trend, particularly at the end of the past financial year, with operating revenues rising to EUR2.5 million in the fourth quarter. In this respect, Q1 2020 must be seen as a continuation of this development, which was also positively influenced by the high volatility currently prevailing on the capital markets.
With preliminary EBITDA of EUR 3.3 million (previous year: EUR -2.8 million) and EBIT of EUR 2.2 million (previous year: EUR -3.9 million), the operating break-even point was significantly exceeded. Although NAGA has implemented significant cost savings in the course of its restructuring, we did not expect to reach the break-even point until the course of the coming financial year 2021.
The product and customer acquisition strategy was more successful than we had anticipated. In the course of the reorganization, NAGA had transferred its product range to a uniform platform, with a strong focus on traditional securities trading within the framework of its own social trading platform 'NAGA Trader'. In addition, the implemented partner program, in which important 'pro-users' act as catalysts for the cost-effective acquisition of new customers, appears to be very successful. Finally, the international market offensive, which was recently extended to Uruguay and China, also contributed important growth impulses.
The preliminary figures for the first quarter of 2020, which are well above our expectations, make it necessary to adjust our forecasts for 2020 and 2021. Based on the expectation that the high volatilities could continue until at least the middle of the year, we expect sales revenues of EUR 20.21 million in 2020 (old forecast: EUR 10.61 million). On the basis of the forecasts, which have thus been raised significantly, we expect revenues in 2021 to also be significantly higher at EUR 24.25 million (previously: EUR 14.66 million). The company should exceed the break-even point in both financial years.
We have adjusted our DCF valuation model and calculated a new price target of EUR 2.70 (previously: EUR 1.75). Although the NAGA share has performed very positively compared to our last research report (see report dated 21 November 19), with a price increase of 143 %, and has reached our old price target, based on the new price target a further price potential of 58.8 % is calculated. We thus continue to assign the BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/20579.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen Jörg Grunwald Vorstand GBC AG Halderstrasse 27 86150 Augsburg 0821 / 241133 0 research@gbc-ag.de ++++++++++++++++ Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung +++++++++++++++ Date (Time) of completion: 20/04/20 (1:00 pm) Date (Time) first distribution: 21/04/20 (10:00 am)
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