Die FEDERAL RESERVE BANK sah sich zuletzt anhand der Liquiditätsschwierigkeiten des Bankensektors nicht nur zur Implementierung von innovativen geldpolitischen Instrumenten - der Terms Security Lending Facility (TSLF) und Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), sondern auch zur finanziellen Begleitung der Übernahme der angeschlagenen Investmentbank  Bear Stearns durch JP Morgan genötigt.

Seit Beginn der Finanzkrise im Sommer 2007 wurden folgende Aktionen vorgenommen:

1. Senkung des Diskontsatzes von zunächst 100Bp. auf nun 25Bp.  zur Fed Fund Target Rate; Primärhändlern (amerikanische Großbanken) wird die Nutzung des Diskontfensters eingräumt
2. Senkung des Refi-Satzes von 5,25% auf derweil 2,25%
3. Implementierung der Term Auction Facility
4. Implementierung der Terms Security Lending Facility
5. Komplementär zu 1., Akzeptanz von Investment Grade Aktiva, auch B-Ratings
6. JPM wird unter Leistung einer Finanzspritze von USD 30 Mrd. erlaubt, BearStearns zu übernehmen. JPM erhält bei der Übernahme der Bear Stearns alle Chancen; die Risiken werden dagegen von der FED größtenteils abgesichert. 

Die FED hat mit der Einführung der TSLF einen Präzedenzfall für ein bail-out eines Brokers geschaffen (sog. Lender of Last Resort.-Theorie). Die Kreditklemme wurde dadurch aber nicht gelöst.

• Aller Wahrscheinlichkeit werden die Folgen der Finanzkrise letztendlich von den Steuerzahlern getragen werden.
• Die Faktoren auf der Kreditangebots- und -nachfrageseite zeigen, dass ein Durchbrechen der gegenwärtigen Abwärtsspirale schwer möglich erscheint.U.E. liegt der SChlüssel für ein Abklingen der Dynamik im Erreichen einer Untergrenze bei den Bewertungslevels von Credit Produkten. Es kann von einer Stabilisierung der Credit-Märkte in den kommenden Monaten ausgegangen werden
• Nach Vorlage der Bilanzen haben Goldman und Lehman sowie Morgan Stanley gezeigt, dass die Broker auch in einem der schlimmsten Quartale seit Jahrzehnten am Finanzmarkt noch in der Lage sind, ansprechende Gewinne zu erwirtschaften. Entsprechend kann man davon ausgehen, dass der Kelch an den Banken vorbeigehen wird. 

"There will be some bank failures. But I do not anticipate any serious problems at the big banks."  - Aussage von Ben Bernanke am 28. Februar 2008. In den vergangenen Wochen stellte die FED aber neue Liquidität den Märkten bereit - ein weitere Stabilisierungsmaßnahme der Finanzmärkte.  

Mögliche weitere Rettungsaktionen der FED bei einer möglichen Krisenverschärfung:

1. Laissez-faire - Nichst machen! Selbstbereinigung der Märkte zulassen
2. Inflation generieren, um hierdurch die Belastungen der Finanzinstitute zu senken
3. Betroffene Finanzinstitute verstaatlichen (Schwedisches Modell aus den 90-igern)

Derzeit wird hauptsächlich von einer Solvenzkrise ausgegangen - entsprechenderweise werden hauptsächlich Liquidität zur Verfügung gestellt bzw. der Zinssatz herunter gesenkt.

FED hat also alles richtig gemacht und würde bei weiteren Krisenfällen nicht mit Rücken zur Wand stehen. Die Konsequenzen dieser Politik sind vollständig antizipierbar, aber folgende Dinge sind bereits jetzt absehbar:

• ineffiziente Märkte (zuviel Dumb-Money), insbesondere bei Commodities und vielleicht ab KW 13 Aktienmärkte; optimales Umfeld für Spekulanten
• steigende Inflationsraten
• massive Währungsabwertung
• mögliche, höhere steuerliche Belastungen zur Sanierung des Staatshaushalts - damit nachhaltiges stagnieren, das mit steigenden Inflationsrate zu einer Stagflation führen könnte

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Reason No. 1: "Most Americans have yet to feel any of the costs of the Iraq war," write Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes in an excerpt of their new book, "The Three Trillion Dollar War," in Vanity Fair. "The price in blood has been paid by members of the volunteer military. The price in treasure has been financed entirely by borrowing. Taxes have not been raised to pay for the war."

Well, folks, the party's over. Campaign rhetoric won't hide America's excesses, denial, incompetence and arrogance much longer. No matter who's elected, taxes will increase to cover massive debts. Greed has driven America's great economic engine into a "debt contagion" ditch with a recession, bear market, price inflation, and weak job and housing markets ... you bet your taxes will increase. Yes, our five-year war was totally financed by borrowing. But unfortunately, "deficit spending gives the illusion that the laws of economics can be repealed. They cannot. Americans will have to pay for the war at some point -- and when they do, they will be paying not the Bush markdown but the full price," the authors say. We've been mislead by Washington's Enron-style accounting that hides many costs: Supplemental financing bills, outside the budget No veterans health-care estimates included No equipment replacement costs to restore our military Nothing about increases in state and homeland security The real cost isn't $800 billion, it's already $3 trillion. And still, it doesn't include ... Interest on the ever-increasing $9.3 trillion federal debt Damage to our credibility from a weak dollar Out-of-control inflation in energy And the brutal damage to Iraq and other Gulf states Washington's hiding all that from us. We were sold a war-on-the-cheap, to cost a mere $50 billion to $60 billion, to be self-financed out of oil revenues. Today we're spending $50 billion every month! This war is already an economic disaster for America and the bill's still coming due. Still, we know there's strong opposition to taxes. But can a new president change much? Certainly not with two-thirds of the budget in untouchable entitlements and interest costs. Besides, Washington's not run by our 537 elected officials but by 35,000 lobbyists. And after the elections, all 35,537 will still be part of a conspiracy that hates change and loves to spend the $3 trillion Federal budget. Mark my words: Taxes will (must!) be increased to recover from years of excessive spending, accumulating deficits and future earmarks. A new president may expose the problems but without Congressional restraint the taxpayers will get stuck paying "the full price." Frankly, since both parties are mired in narrow ideologies, it's questionable whether either can manage a $15 trillion GDP economy. Read "Mismanagement 101," Dan Gross's Newsweek column: "As oil hovered near $100 a barrel, President Bush complained to OPEC about high oil prices. OPEC president Chakib Khelil responded acidly that crude's remarkable run had nothing to do with the reluctance of Persian Gulf nations to pump oil, and everything to do with the 'mismanagement of the U.S. economy.'" And our heavy reliance on borrowing keeps making it even more difficult for the next president. But unfortunately, even though the party's over, that $3 trillion war debt is just a fraction of America's out-of-control debt which is bigger than the official $9.3 trillion federal debt. It's reason

1. Taxes are going up Here are another nine problems increasing our government's debt and adding pressures for new tax hikes. I'm sure you can think of many others:

2. America's new Wall Street welfare program This one's scary. For the first time in almost a century, the Fed's bailing out the investment bankers, those wild speculators who got us in this mess -- bailed out while two million homeowners face foreclosures and increasing interest rates. The real sinners are free to sin again! Like J.P. Morgan Chase's $2 -- now $10 -- freebie of Bear Stern's equity, while the Fed stuck the taxpayers with billions of Bear's junk debt. Now Wall Street's greedy traders are free to start speculating again, playing in the same old $516 trillion high-risk derivatives casino. Bad move: The Fed's setting America up for an even bigger crash around 2012.

3. The Fed's nationalizing America's financial industry Bear Sterns is a symptom of a systemic disease. As BusinessWeek put it: "Financiers preached the free-market gospel and pocketed unheard-of sums of money, yet when times got tough they called for a government bailout." The Fed's dealing with America like a third-world banana republic, effectively nationalizing our financial industry! Wall Street's speculators have over $200 billion in junk write-offs. But like the government accounting tricks hiding war costs, Wall Street has also been inflating junk asset values and ginning up profits. And now the Fed's even helping them mask losses to prevent panic. Eventually this PR stunt will cut Wall Street's future earnings and increase taxes.

4. Huge resistance to cutting social and entitlement programs

5. America's pork barrel lobbying machine

6. White House's free market nonaction policies

7. Aging infrastructure: roads, bridges, water, sewer, etc.

Imagine taking that $50 billion monthly cost of fighting and rebuilding Iraq and shifting it to upgrading our own highways, hospitals, power, sewer and water plants. Dream on. Yet our deterioration continues and deferred maintenance only works so long. Expect higher gas taxes, plus sizeable cutbacks in state and local services, or general tax increases.

8. Paradigm shift: consumer spending vs. consumer savings

In one generation our savings rate declined below zero. Policymakers favored a consumer-driven economy, capital formation fell and debt piled up. Meanwhile, consumers took a cue from an out-of-control "spend and borrow" government piling up huge deficits.

10. Now your turn, what's your top reason taxes will increase?

Schon Milton Friedman hat gesagt, die Wirtschaft besteht mindestens 50% aus Psychologie. Ein Monetarist, der viele Anhänger noch in der heutigen Zeit hat, einer von den ist sicherlich Ben Bernanke.

Bernanke's Statements bei der "President's Working Group on Financial Markets"

1. We do not have the luxury of waiting for markets to stabilize before we think about the future
2. There is nothing fundamentally broken on Wall Street that a little regulation and incentives for participants to be slightly more honest couldn't fix
3. although there are similarities between the current credit crunch and the 1930s, the U.S. "will not experience" anything like the Depression, which lasted for 12 years.

Alles in Allem, eine Aussage, die Marktteilnehmer davon ausgehen läßt, dass alle Schweinereien, ganz egal welchen Ausmaßes die Banken und sonstigen Wirtschaftsubjekte anstellen, mit gezielten Aktionen gemeistert werden (können).

Das ist der entscheidende Unterschied zwischen einem Trichet und sonstigen Notenbankern der Welt und der FED! Aufgrund dieser Tatsache können wir beruhigt in die Märkte investieren und bullish sein. Und die Inflation? Das ist ein anderes Thema. Ohne sie würde unser gesamtes System doch gar nicht funktioneren. Ein höherer Preis rechtfertigt eben doch eine höhere Produktqualität, oder?

Wie der nachstehende Artikelausschnitt zeigt, ist die geldpolitische Stützung der Kreditinstitute und indirekt des gesamten Kapitalmarkts immer noch in vollem Gange. Eins ist damit sicher: Die Liquiditätskrise bzw. die Vertrauenskrise der Banken untereinander ist alles andere als vorüber.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks, said Friday that it was increasing the funding it is providing to banks and announced that, for the first time, it was willing to accept bonds backed by auto loans and credit cards. "In view of the persistent liquidity pressures in some term funding markets, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank are announcing an expansion of their liquidity measures," the Fed said in a statement. The Fed took the move in an attempt to flood the market with supply and lower short-term lending rates, such as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.

Link:

Die FED ist auch weiterhin um die Stabilität des Finanzsystems besorgt. Anders kann die heutige Maßnahme nicht erklärt werden. Die Aktienmärkte, v.a. die Banken feiern dieses Event. Wie so oft, der Teufel steckt eben im Detail:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Never mind that the loan balance between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street has been $0 for four weeks, time is running out for the borrowers to get their financial houses in order. The Fed announced Wednesday that the credit facility it opened to investment banks in March will be closing on Jan. 30. Banks will lengthen the term of credit on some loans to 84 days from 28 days. For broker dealers that serve as primary dealers of Treasury debt, the Fed said it would introduce auctions of options on $50 billion of loans. The options could be exercised if needed in periods of elevated stress in months to come, such as the end of financial quarters. ...

=> License to kill or fullfill the payement obligations!

Denn was heißt es: Die Banken sind ab jetzt an nicht mehr in der Situation, aufgrund der eingeschränkten/knappen Liquidität bestimmte Solvenzmeldungen zu tätigen. Ausserdem, und das ist der entscheidende Faktor, es kann wieder Neugeschäft generiert werden, die Counterparties haben quasi wieder Vertrauen untereinander. Bekannterweise laufen die Interbanken-Geschäfte auf einer Relation von 28 - 90 Tagen. Also alles im Butter. Dies könnte nun wirklich der entscheidende Befreiungsschlag gewesen sein! Aber auch der Anfang von Zinserhöhungen seitens der FED.

Auch eine weitere Einschränkung wurde gestern entschieden: Die Banken und sonst. große Finanzdienstleister dürfen auch weiterhin nicht mehr geshortet werden!

So sind sie eben die Wahljahre! Voller Steuer und sonstiger Geschenke, egal ob privat oder gewerblich. Traurig aber, dass am Ende ein Dritter die Rechnung zahlen wird! Darauf könnt ihr Euch verlassen.

oder vielleicht sogar ein bisschen mehr? ML scheint die einzige Bank zu sein, die sehr aktiv ihre Assets und somit ihr Fortbestehen managt.

Aktionen: Gemäß dem Management soll mit dem jetzigen Schritt die Risikoreduzierung des Investmenthauses beschleunigt werden. Im Detail geht es um Folgendes: ν

• Kapitalerhöhung durch Ausgabe neuer Aktien von nominal 8,5 Mrd. USD. Etwa 750.000 der Aktien werden dabei vom Management selbst gekauft (entspricht circa 2% basierend auf 24 USD/Aktie).
• Verkauf von U.S. super senior ABS CDOs im Nominalwert von 30,6 Mrd. USD für 6,7 Mrd. USD an die texanische Investorengruppe Lone Star Funds. In den Büchern stehen diese Papiere per 27.06.2008 mit 11,1 Mrd. USD. Merrill Lynch wird die Finanzierung von circa 75 Prozent des Kaufpreises übernehmen.
• Auflösung der Sicherungspositionen mit dem Monoliner XL Capital Assurance Inc. Mit weiteren Anleiheversicherern steht Merrill Lynch derzeit in Verhandlung.

Wertanpassungen für das aktuelle Quartal: ca. USD 6 Mrd., entsprechend ist die Kap.Erhöhung auch eine Stütze für das Neugeschäft. 

Auch positiv zu erwähnen ist, bei sinkenden Aktienkursen, die Kap.Erhöhungen zu platzieren. Das ist ein Gütezeichen. Entsprechend könnte man hier ein Engagement wagen. 

getting worse:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The credit squeeze worsened in the past three months, the Federal Reserve reported Monday, and most banks expect to keep a lid on credit for the next year at least.

 Despite all the aggressive moves by the Fed in the past year to ease the flow of credit to the economy, a record percentage of banks were making it more difficult for borrowers in the three months ending in July, the Fed said in its quarterly senior loan officer survey of 52 major banks.A majority of banks tightened their rules for granting loans to businesses and consumers. The survey shows little appetite at banks to lend for home mortgages, credit cards, home equity loans, commercial real estate loans, or commercial and industrial loans.No bank in the survey eased credit terms for any type of loan in the past three months, and only one bank said it anticipated easing standards for consumers in the next 12 months.Tighter credit could slow economic growth, especially consumer spending, economists say. Lack of credit could sink the commercial real estate market, and curb capital investments by businesses. The survey is considered a leading indicator of credit creation in the United States."This is consistent with our view that consumer spending will slow markedly over the next several quarters," wrote economists for Lehman Bros."The impending tightening may ultimately curb consumer credit noticeably," wrote Harm Bandholz, an economist for UniCredit Markets. "This in turn would be another nail in the coffin of the U.S. consumer, who is already suffering from the weak labor market, high inflation and falling house prices."Despite the tighter credit standards, however, other data from the Fed show consumers increased their borrowing on credit cards and auto loans through the end of the second quarter, perhaps because other sources of borrowing, such as home-equity loans and auto leases, are less available.Banks told the Fed they were restricting credit because of worries about the economy, worries about risk or illiquid markets, and worries about their own fragile capital position.Ninety-eight percent of the banks cited the uncertain economy, 92% cited illiquid secondary credit markets, and 75% cited reduced appetite for risk.Banks were lowering credit lines, increasing interest-rate spreads, requiring more documentation, demanding more collateral, or requiring co-signers and or covenants before granting credit.Consumers continued to be hit hard by tighter credit standards. A record 74% of banks said they had tightened standards for prime mortgages, usually given only to those with the best credit. A record 84% of banks said they tightened standards on nontraditional mortgages (also known as Alt-A), and a record 86% of banks that still make subprime mortgages said they had tightened those standards.Businesses were also being squeezed. A record 65% of banks tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans to small customers. For commercial real estate loans, a record 81% tightened standards.DetailsC&I loans: Fifty-eight percent of banks tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and medium firms, while 65% tightened for small firms.Commercial real estate: Eighty-one percent tightened standards, while 50% said demand was weakening.Residential mortgages: A record 74% of banks said they tightened standards for prime mortgages, while 53% said they saw reduced demand. For subprime mortgages, 86% tightened standards, with the number of banks who offer such loans declining to 14% of banks from about 30% two years ago. For nontraditional mortgages, 84% tightened standards while 63% reported reduced demand.Consumer credit: A record 36% of banks reported less willingness to extend consumer installment loans; only 2% were more willing.Eighty percent tightened standards on home-equity lines of credit. For credit cards, 67% tightened standards, mostly by refusing new loans to consumers without good credit

A mountain of worry for Fed at Jackson Hole

 "You don't know what is going to break loose," said former Fed Gov. Susan Phillips.The theme of the Fed's Jackson Hole seminar this year, 'Maintaining stability in a changing financial system,' seems more like a prayer to the mountain gods than anything else.Behind the scenes and on the sidelines, conference participants are going to be debating the Fed's dramatic actions over the past year to stem the crisis and protect the economy. And they'll be pondering what more could or should be done.Rate cuts, and new loansThe Fed has slashed interest rates over the past year to 2% from 5.25%, but that's the least of what they've done. In addition to traditional rate cuts, the Fed has instituted several innovative emergency loan programs to provide liquidity to commercial and investment banks.The Fed has now moved to the sidelines - unwilling to move rates lower due to the threat of inflation and having promised to keep lending cash to financial institutions until at least the New Year.Despite this frenzy of action, there is no end in sight for the financial market turmoil and the related housing market downturn, many experts say."I have a feeling that it is far from over," said Barry Eichengreen, an economic historian at the University of California at Berkeley. Eichengreen and other experts see mounting credit woes for banks from credit cards and other consumer loans."I think there will be another wave of mortgage-related problems, emanating not from the subprime part of the market anymore, but from people with slightly more normal credit and mortgages," he said. "It is entirely plausible that there will be some hedge fund failures and commercial bank problems.""I think this is going to bubble along for a while now," he said.Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff reportedly told an audience in Singapore earlier this week that a large U.S. bank was likely to collapse in the new few months.Since the beginning of the year, financial markets have reeled from one crisis to the other and remain very fragile. "You don't have the resilience now to shake off bad news," said Phillips, now dean of the business school at George Washington University.Fannie, FreddieThe current crisis surrounds the worsening conditions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with many expecting a government bailout of the two mortgage giants.To be fair, the economy has navigated the top part of the mountain in pretty good shape."I don't mean to sound like Phil Gramm...but there has been a huge amount of financial market disruption and the actual impact on the real economy has been limited," said Adam Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.Gramm, a former senator, quit as a top economic adviser to Republican presidential candidate John McCain, after he said Americans were "whining" about the economy.So far this year, there hasn't been a negative gross domestic product number.   And it is very easy to overstate the problems of the financial system, warned Minneapolis Fed Gov. Gary Stern in a television interview earlier this week.But other economists are simply unsettled."It is not as if there are not some positive signs, but to me they are not consistent enough for me to be positive," said Phillips.The fact remains that the first necessary condition for repair of the markets - the bottoming of the housing market - is not in sight. Until the housing market bottoms, it will not be clear how many losses the banks need to realize."Looking ahead, there is still substantial uncertainty about the ultimate realized magnitude of loss on mortgages in 2006 and 2007, said Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker this week. "That uncertainty is out there - and that means still the potential for other shoes to drop.""We are going to continue to see some at least moderate level of stress," said Lacker.Robert Eisenbeis, a former researcher at the Atlanta Fed, said he is not confident that financial institutions have taken all the losses that they will.Fundamental questions remain about the business of investment banking and commercial banks. "I don't think anybody knows yet how big and how viable a particular business is going to be," Eisenbeis said.So far Washington has protected the financial firms, Eisenbeis said. "There is too much coziness there," Eisenbeis said. "First, we have the military industrial complex and now it's the financial complex," he said.Many economists are worried that the Fed's efforts will create inflation. Eisenbeis said the Fed went into this rate-cutting activity "without any exit strategy.""I don't think they are going to be able to just reverse policy in the face of continued weakness on the real side of the economy," he said. i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif" style="max-width:560px" />

                                                                                                                                                                             Die heute veröffentlichten Einkaufsmanagerindizes für Deutschland sprechen jedoch eine andere Sprache. Sie fielen sowohl für das verarbeitende Gewerbe als auch für den Dienstleistungssektor überraschend deutlich. Deutschland verliert immer mehr seine Funktion als Konjunkturmotor für die Eurozone. Dennoch: Der gefallene Ölpreis und der schwächere Euro koennten die Grundlage für die deutsche Wirtschaft wieder verbessern. Vorausgesetzt, der Abwaertstrend haelt an.

Trotz des aktuellen Abwärtsdrucks rechne ich im Bereich zwischen 6.000 und 6.200 Punkten mit einer STabilisierung der Kurse bis Ende November. Einen Durchmarsch nach unten wird es nicht geben, da bin ich mir ziemlich sicher.