Der USA Bären-Thread

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Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Reps bewilligen temp. Aufstockun d. Schuldengrenze

4
10.10.13 18:54
Die Reps lenken ein und haben im Repräsentantenhaus einer temporäre Aufstockung der Schuldengrenze für 6 Wochen zugestimmt, um die Gefahr eines Staatsbankrotts zu bannen.

Der US-Regierungs-Shutdown bleibt jedoch nach wie vor bestehen, weil kein Haushalt verabschiedet ist. Es ist gut möglich, dass der Senat (Dem-Mehrheit) obigen Gesetzesvorschlag des Repräsentantenhauses (Rep-Mehrheit) deswegen noch abweist. Die Reps haben jetzt "Bringschuld", weil sie in USA mehrheitlich als Urheber des Theaters wahrgenommen werden. Das können die Dems ausnutzten, um kurzfristig noch mehr rauszuholen (zumindest provisorischer Haushalt und damit Ende des Shutdowns).

www.marketwatch.com/story/...push-six-week-debt-limit-hike-2013-10-10



Der USA Bären-Thread heavymax._cooltrader
heavymax._co.:

kommt nun.. sell on good news?

 
10.10.13 18:58
Freie Meinungsäußerung bedeutet für viele Journalisten immer noch.. den Tod!
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Senat dürfte dem Gesetz demnächst zustimmen,

2
10.10.13 19:03
obwohl es nur ein Kicking-the-can-down-the-road-Kompromiss ist. Das würde die Rallye in den US-Indizes noch weiter beflügeln. Nachträglich war es eine gute Entscheidung, vorgestern (# 086) nahe dem Interim-Tief die SP-500-Shorts einzudecken. Die jetzt laufende Entwicklung (langer Zank, aber schlussendlich eine Form von Einigung) war absehbar.

ZH:

...With all that, the ball is now in Obama's court where we expect an announcement from the White House shortly that he will accept the proposal grudgingly as a confirmation that he was "willing to negotiate all along" when in reality as we explained yesterday as part of the Paul Ryan "fig leaf" plan in which the core underlying issue is swept under the rug:

   "yet another episode of can kicking, one which resolves the near-term stress points and pushes all the hard decisions to the future. As for the key issue on the table, Obamacare, it will be quietly, pardon the pun, tabled. Which, just as Bank of America said, is the compromise option. As long as the ACA is a topic of discussion no agreement can be achieved. Which is why we tend to agree: ultimately this will probably be the loophole used by Boehner and the republicans to fold once more.

www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-10/...g-can-kicking-where-we-stand-now
Der USA Bären-Thread 652750
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Heavymax

3
10.10.13 19:17
Erst mal dürfte es einen weiteren Spike nach oben geben, sobald der Kompromiss (# 103) vom Senat gebilligt wurde.

Der Wall of Worry bleibt danach weiter bestehen, weil es eben nur ein Aufschub um 6 Wochen ist. Das könnte (sofern der Wall of Worry kontraindikatorisch bullisch wirkt) für weitere Anstiege sorgen.

"Sell the good news" dürfte mMn frühestens nach einer endgültigen Einigung kommen. Hängt freilich auch davon ab, wie hoch die Indizes bis dahin gestiegen sind. Wenn sie die Einigung stark vorweggenommen haben, ist "Sell the news" am wahrscheinlichsten, andernfalls entsprechend weniger. Die demnächst "fällige" Weihnachtsrallye wird vermutlich ohnehin alle Boote heben, egal wie löchrig die Schiffsböden sind und wie stürmisch die See...
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

wie zu erwarten...

 
10.10.13 22:05
zweitgrößter Tagesanstieg in 2013
Der USA Bären-Thread 652818
Der USA Bären-Thread hamburger59
hamburger59:

NASDAC

 
10.10.13 22:46
Tageshoch 3214,5

NACHBÖRSLICH 3201
Der USA Bären-Thread Ischariot MD
Ischariot MD:

Behinderung der Ermittlungen

3
11.10.13 08:29
gegen Goldschwein Fucks durch Vorgesetzte bei der FED New York:


Former examiner sues NY Fed for alleged Goldman Sachs-related firing

(Reuters) - A former senior bank examiner at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York filed a wrongful termination lawsuit on Thursday, saying she was fired after refusing to alter a critical examination of Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N).

The former employee, Carmen Segarra, said that in her seven months of examining Goldman's legal and compliance divisions, she found the bank did not have policies to prevent conflicts of interest as required by regulation, a conclusion that might have caused a downgrade of the Wall Street bank's regulatory rating.

As a result of Segarra's findings, the New York Fed's Legal Compliance and Risk team voted to downgrade Goldman's annual rating pertaining to policies and procedures, according to the lawsuit filed in federal court in New York.

It is not clear whether the downgrade occurred, but according to the lawsuit, the threat of one startled Michael Silva, who oversees the New York Fed's relationship with Goldman, and Silva's deputy, Michael Koh. The two officials were concerned that a downgrade could cause clients to stop doing business with the Wall Street bank, the lawsuit said.

Silva and Koh are named as defendants in Segarra's lawsuit, as is her former supervisor, Johnathon J. Kim.

In a statement, New York Fed spokesman Jack Gutt said the regulator cannot speak about individual employees or about supervised institutions because the information is private.

"The New York Fed provides multiple venues and layers of recourse for its employees to freely express concerns about the institutions it supervises," said Gutt. "Such concerns are treated seriously and investigated appropriately with a high degree of independence. Personnel decisions at the New York Fed are based exclusively on individual job performance and are subject to thorough review. We categorically reject any suggestions to the contrary."

Goldman spokesman Michael DuVally said the bank does not have knowledge of internal Fed discussions or the matters raised by Segarra. He also pointed to a Business Standards Committee report that Goldman produced in January 2011, whose full implementation was announced in May of this year.

"Goldman Sachs has a comprehensive approach to addressing conflicts through firmwide and divisional policies and infrastructure," DuVally said.

Segarra was assigned to Goldman's legal and compliance divisions from October 2011 until May 2012, and looked into three controversial transactions related to Solyndra, Capmark and the merger of El Paso and Kinder Morgan (KMI.N). At that point, Kim, Silva and Koh fired her and had her escorted from the building by security guards after weeks of disputes and pressure to change her examination findings, the lawsuit said.

Segarra's lawyer, Linda Stengle, said in an interview that Goldman's committees and standards represented "a paper policy that didn't really have any weight." Stengle said that Goldman executives in charge of conflicts told Segarra and other Fed examiners that they did not have a firmwide conflicts policy and also gave inconsistent statements about the conflicts board's duties and findings.

"Bank examiners should be able to operate without fear of retaliation against the banks that they're examining," said Stengle. Instead, she said her client was "cornered" by supervisors who "tried to force her or persuade her very heavily to change her findings."

www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/10/...an-idUSBRE99916X20131010
Steuerzahler, wollt Ihr zur Schlachtbank geführt werden ?
Dann wählt Merkel ...
Der USA Bären-Thread Stöffen
Stöffen:

Wie erwartet

3
11.10.13 08:36
US-Notenbanker Bullard sieht kein Ende des billigen Geldes

Ein hochrangiger US-Notenbanker hält eine Drosselung der Wertpapierkäufe bei der Sitzung im Oktober für "weniger wahrscheinlich", weil der Shutdown die Wirtschaft bereits belastet. Der Präsident der Federal Reserve Bank von St. Louis, James Bullard, der in diesem Jahr stimmberechtigt im Offenmarktausschuss ist, verwies auf die dämpfenden Konjunktureffekte durch den teilweisen Stillstand des Staatsbetriebs und auch auf das Fehlen von einigen Wirtschaftsdaten.

www.wsj.de/article/...24052702303382004579127500781083392.html
Bubbles are normal and non-bubble times are depressions!
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

# 107

4
11.10.13 09:53
Tja, Ischariot. So ist das nun mal, wenn man gegen Goldman zu Felde zieht. Als Juristin der New Yorker Fed wird man entlassen, wenn die Ergebnisse der Untersuchungen juristisch und politisch nicht genehm sind. Nennt sich auch Klassenjustiz.

Rechtsstaat "im Prinzip immer gern", aber man darf nicht an der "Freiheit" des Finanzkapitals rütteln, selbst wenn diese betrügerisch zur eigenen Bereicherung missbraucht wurde.

Ganz ähnlich in Foren. Da wird man man gemobbt, wenn man nicht mit der Macht anbändelt. Dann heißt es, man wäre "einseitig", "Schwarz-Weiß-Maler" und/oder "ideologisch verblendet" ;-)

Denn Wirtschaft sei ja in Wirklichkeit "viel komplexer" (LOL).
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

# 108 Stöffen

 
11.10.13 09:55
Künftig werden in USA schon Ankündigungen von QE-Reduzierungen verboten werden, weil daraus resultierende psychologische Sekundäreffekte (u. a. Bondmarktschwäche) die Wirtschaft lähmen könnten.
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Und Pressefreiheit

6
11.10.13 10:09
ist nur deshalb "erlaubt", weil die Veröffentlichung solcher Schandtaten (Entlassung einer Fed-Juristin, weil deren Recherchen Goldman geschadet hätten; # 107) nichts daran ändert, dass sie auch künftig begangen werden.

Es wird in der Presse auch regelmäßig darüber berichtet, dass sich US-Großbanken wie Goldman oder JPM - die irgendeine Form von Betrug (Subprime, Libor etc.) begangen hatten, um sich illegal zu bereichern - durch Zahlung einer vergleichsweise geringen Summe (meist viel kleiner als obiger illegaler Gewinn) an die Börsenaufsicht aus der Affäre ziehen konnten.

Im Klartext bedeutet dies, dass sich Großbanken mit vergleichsweise geringen Beträgen von Schuld und Strafverfolgung freikaufen können.

Wie sonst auch ließe sich erklären, dass nach dem gigantischen 2008-Betrug kein einziger Bänker hinter Gittern sitzt?

http://www.ariva.de/cartoon-jail-wall-street_a619455


Der USA Bären-Thread 652926
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Neue "Volksaktie" in GB

3
11.10.13 10:50
Die Royal Mail geht an die Börse und legt gleich am ersten Handelstag um 35 % zu.

Da erinnert nicht nur an den Neuen Markt, sondern auch an den anfänglichen Höhenflug der deutschen "Volksaktie" Telekom.


Royal Mail soars 35% on first trading day

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Royal Mail traded at 4.46 pounds ($7.13) on its first trading day, up 35% from the pre-float purchase price of £3.30 a share. The rally boosted the value of the previously state-owned company to more than £4.5 billion, compared with the £3.3 billion initial-public-offering price. U.K. Business Secretary Vince Cable said there had been 700,000 individual retail applications for the shares, with demand from private investors for the flotation seven times over-subscribed, according to media reports. The first two days of trading will be limited to institutional investors, and full trading will begin on Tuesday, Oct. 15 -- the day before the result of a strike ballot by postal workers. "The jump in the shares above 400p will certainly see the U.K. government being criticized for selling the company too cheaply, ripping off U.K. taxpayers," said Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital. "But it must be noted that institutional allocations (bid above £10k) have been scaled back this time, allowing allocation to retail clients which should go down neatly in general sentiment across the public," he added.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...soars-35-on-first-trading-day-2013-10-11
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Lebensmittelinflation in D.: Kartoffeln + 31 %

4
11.10.13 15:24
Preisanstiege von Lebensmitteln in den letzten 12 Monaten: Kartoffeln "führen" mit +31 %, dicht gefolgt von Butter, Zwiebeln, Knoblauch mit je + 29 %. Danke, Draghi.

deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/.../uploads/2013/10/23.jpg
Der USA Bären-Thread 653060
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Uni-Mich. Verbraucherstimmung fällt auf 75,2

 
11.10.13 16:32
Das ist der tiefste Wert seit Januar, als das Fiscal Cliff kam.

Consumer sentiment falls in October
By Ruth Mantell

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A gauge of consumer sentiment fell to a preliminary October reading of 75.2 -- the lowest since January -- from a final September reading of 77.5, according to Friday reports. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected an October reading of 75 for the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index, due to concern over the government shutdown, looming debt ceiling and stock volatility. Economists watch sentiment levels to get a feeling for the direction of consumer spending.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...er-sentiment-falls-in-october-2013-10-11
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

US-Staatsanlei. mit 1-Monat Restzeit fallen weiter

 
11.10.13 16:34
www.marketwatch.com/story/...n-later-debt-ceiling-deadline-2013-10-11

(Verkleinert auf 98%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 653082
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

"harte" vs. "weiche" US-Wirtschaftsdaten

 
11.10.13 16:46
www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-11/hard-data-doesnt-lie

The "Hard" Data Doesn't Lie

Over the last several months, "hard" economic data have been telling a much different story than "soft" economic data. On the one hand, soft surveys such as the ISM manufacturing index have pointed to robust economic growth. On the flip side, hard economic data have been disappointing. We previously pointed out Goldman's view of the "soft" surveys relatively weak ability to project growth, but as BofAML warns, even before the government shutdown cut off the flow of hard economic data, they were tracking just 1.6% qoq saar for third quarter growth. Confidence is already taking a nose-dive as the shutdown continues and BofAML warns of the potential for significant and lasting shocks to growth if things do not improve quickly.

.
Der USA Bären-Thread 653086
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Fed's Powell: Market now prepared for taper

 
11.10.13 17:01
Zur Abwechslung mal wieder ein Taper-Ankündigung.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...w-prepared-for-taper-2013-10-11-10915948

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -Financial markets are now prepared for a scale back in U.S. central bank's stimulus program "when the economic outlook and the broader situation support it," said Fed Gov. Jerome Powell on Friday. Powell rejected criticism, made by many Wall Street economists but also Fed insiders, that the central bank's credibility was damaged when it surprised markets by holding policy steady last month. Powell said there was bound to be volatility when the Fed moved to clarify when its open-ended asset purchase plan would be halted. "Open-ended does not mean unending," he said, during a panel discussion hosted by the Institute for International Finance. Powell said he would have been comfortable with a taper in September but supported the decision to hold off as a "reasonable exercise in risk management" given concerns about the strength of the economy and the outlook for fiscal policy. The subsequent government shutdown and the standoff between President Obama and House Republicans over the debt ceiling suggest that the Fed's concerns in mid-September were "well founded," he said.
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Shutdown-Theater - wohin es führen wird...

 
11.10.13 18:03

www.alt-market.com/articles/1760-the-possible-outcomes-of-the-shutdown-theater

...
The Goal Is To Destroy The American Economy

What you believe to be political blunders are often actually calculated and engineered events. What you believe to be chaotic disasters of coincidence are often actually deliberate acts of attrition warfare against the common people disguised as random catastrophe. Those you believe to be heroes are actually villains in friendly masks. Those you are told to be villains are actually good men and women who refused to be enslaved by the system. That which you see and hear is never exactly as it appears.

Nearly every concrete action our government and central bank have taken in the past several decades has led to the further erosion of the American economy. If this is all just the consequence of “stupidity” or “childish greed,” you would think our so-called leadership would have at least made a few good decisions by mistake; but they are incredibly adept at choosing all the wrong paths.

The reality is that collapses on the scale we are now witnessing in America rarely happen by accident.

The destruction of Glass-Steagall was a carefully crafted coup. The Federal Reserve deliberately and artificially lowered interest rates in order to allow banks to generate massive toxic debt through the derivatives markets. The Securities and Exchange Commission did little to nothing to stop the spread of cancerous mortgage instruments and ignored numerous calls for investigation. Ratings agencies like Moody’s and Fitch examined all of these toxic assets, knowing exactly what they were, and rated them AAA anyway. And banks like Goldman Sachs, knowing that the market was a sham, sold these bad assets around the world and then secretly bet AGAINST them later. Either this is economic warfare implemented with precision, or it’s all a string of coincidental blunders. I don’t believe in such coincidences....

America is being destroyed by design to make way for a new global system administered by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as a new global currency tied to the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights.

If you are able to accept this, the confusion surrounding events like the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate withers, and everything becomes clear. With that clarity in mind, we can now examine the possible outcomes of the shutdown theater.

Republicans Surrender At The Last Minute

Of course, since both parties are essentially one party, the idea of “brinksmanship” on the part of either is absurd. The GOP will surrender, or “stand fast,” because its serves the interests of the globalist establishment. There is no political battle here, only the empty chest-beating of a staged wrestling match.

Bets on a last-minute Republican reversal were in the majority for the past week of the shutdown, but that is slowly changing — and for good reason. Obama has stated that the Affordable Care Act is off the table in negotiations, while Republicans like Ted Cruz and John Boehner are now stating with surprising candor that debt default is on the table if Obama refuses to compromise.

Gee, it would seem we are at an impasse.

In the meantime, the GOP is also moving to wrap the debt ceiling debate into the shutdown fight, making a “diplomatic compromise” even less likely to make sense to the public. (Those who argued that the shutdown and the debt ceiling were two entirely separate issued should accept this reality and move on.)

If I were writing this bit of fiction, I would say I was writing myself into a corner and that a last-minute Republican white flag would be illogical to my audience. That said, not all stories are well-written stories, so a Republican rollover remains an option for the time being. The primary reason I can see for the establishment to instruct the GOP to retreat would be to set the stage for a new stimulus event, like a war, which still leaves the U.S. dollar on track to lose its world reserve status — just not as fast a track.

This plot twist makes far more sense to me given the way our story has progressed so far. Why?Because it provides perfect cover for an economic collapse that was going to occur anyway, except in this version the banking elite avoid all blame.

Just look at all the angry rhetoric being thrown around in the mainstream media; red team versus blue team has returned as the pervasive American sitcom.

Conservatives blame liberals and Obama. Liberals blame conservatives and the Tea Party. We’re all too happy to blame each other. Certainly, both elements of our government share responsibility for any debt default or subsequent collapse. But who started this avalanche to begin with? What about the Federal Reserve? What about Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, etc.? What about the globalists?

Debt default is no small matter. Such a disaster would indeed fuel a flight from U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors and eventually lead to the complete abandonment of the greenback as the world reserve standard.Austerity measures would be implemented at break-neck speed. Cuts to entitlement programs, pensions, State funding, etc. will hit the American people like a freight train.

The way in which the MSM [Medien, A.L.] is already painting “Tea Party” conservative as saboteurs should a default occur is actually a very practical strategy. Not only do the elites get their economic collapse, but they manipulate the general public to believe that Constitutional conservatives, their mortal enemies, were the CAUSE of the pain, rather than the banks.

Should the establishment decide this is the moment to pull the plug on our financial structure, expect some rather insane-sounding solutions to be presented as rational alternatives. When Obama was asked by reporters if he considered the 14th Amendment as an option to end the debt ceiling debate, Obama did not rule out the idea.

This should raise some eyebrows. By the 14th Amendment I can only surmise that they mean Section 4, which states:

    The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Some people, including CNBC’s Jim Cramer, think that this gives the President the power to raise the debt ceiling regardless of what Congress decides.

And Obama doesn’t appear to be dismissing the notion either. However, Section 5 of the 14th Amendment says:

    The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Nowhere in Section 5 does it say that the President has the power to enforce the provisions of the 14th Amendment, but this may not stop the White House from twisting the law to insinuate more expansive controls.

Beyond the 14th Amendment, there are numerous executive orders and continuity of government programs that the White House could cite as authority to implement national emergency standards. This would probably start as a kind of “soft” martial law, and then grow from there. Each action will be rationalized as necessary for the greater good of the country, but will serve only the interests of the establishment oligarchy.

On the Republican side, there is another disturbing development that may be presented as a solution in the face of crisis — namely, the idea of instituting a Constitutional convention.

A Constitutional convention is essentially a complete rewriting of the document (which they call "amending") in the name of rebooting a government that has strayed too far from the wishes of the people. The concept is being promoted avidly by certain neocon talking heads and scholars, even on the FOX News circuit.

It sounds very noble on the surface, and neocons use very pretty language to candy coat the idea for legitimate Constitutionalists; but it is truly the most foolish action our country could take, opening the door to a complete erasure of Bill of Rights protections while offering no assurances that any meaningful provisions will be respected or afforded by the Federal government.  The people are given the illusion of potential redress when in reality a Con-Con produces only more centralized theater for the masses. If the liberty movement is suckered into a Constitutional convention, we will have been lured into writing our own destruction.

Another scenario could involve the Federal Reserve moving to take what they often call "extraordinary measures".  The Fed, being a private bank, may use the shutdown as an opportunity to paint itself as an economic "hero" (as unbelievable as that may sound), by instituting stimulus measures to the Federal Government regardless of Congressional or presidential impasseGiven enough public desperation in the midst of default, the Fed may attempt to assert unprecedented financial authority in the name of "saving the country from it's own government".  The bankers then establish their role as the wise saviors and high priests of the fiscal universe, and cement private dominance over American political decisions as "acceptable" in the minds of the citizenry.

The most dangerous solution that will inevitably be paraded for the public will be a petition for aid from the IMF. The IMF has a long history of loansharking to indebted nations and then subsuming them and their natural resources in the process. The ignorant illusion that the United States is the sole power behind the IMF will be exposed all too late when a defaulting American Treasury is told to collateralize infrastructure to pay off creditors [klingt für mich ziemlich weit hergeholt, A.L.], while the dollar is bled completely dry and absorbed by the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket currency.

Whether default occurs or is avoided, watch vigilantly over the next few weeks. Do not blink. Do not be conned, and do not let fear or bias blind you to the bigger picture. The shutdown could amount to nothing immediate, or it could amount to everything we have warned about for the past five years. I personally believe the month of October may be a major turning point in America’s history.Whether it be for good or ill depends on how mentally and physically prepared we are.


Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Bullen-Guru Willard sieht 300-Punkte-Sturz im Dow

 
11.10.13 18:15
irgendwann in den nächsten zwei Wochen (unten). Eine Sensation wäre das mMn nicht, denn gestern ist der DOW ja auch 323 Punkte (wegen nichts) gestiegen - siehe Chart in # 105. Das war übrigens der höchste Intraday-Anstieg seit 2011.

2008 ging dem großen Sturz "nach Lehman" auch eine sehr volatile Phase vorweg, in der der DOW teils 1000 Punkte pro Tag nach unten und danach wieder nach oben lief, was nichts daran änderte, dass er sich ein halbes Jahr später halbiert hatte.

Der Konsens mit seiner "Alles-wird-gut"-Erwartung für ein Lösung im Haushalts- und  Schuldengrenzenerhöhungsstreit ist womöglich zu optimistisch (wie ja auch Doug Kass glaubt). Im Artikel im letzten Posting sind einige davon abweichende "Outlier-Events" genannt, die bei aller Verschwörungstheorie, die diesem Artikel innewohnt, zumindest in Betracht gezogen werden sollten.

blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2013/10/11/...ely-a-300-point-drop/

...There sure seems to be a lot of confidence that the markets can get back to recent all-time highs and keep right on going straight up into the year end. I remain near-term bearish and expect we get another panicky sell-off and a 300 point down down in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at some point in the next week or two. Not exactly an earth-shattering prediction there, and not one, I’m necessarily trying to game. But you know there are other issues and reasons for markets to go down than just “debt ceiling negotiations,” right? It happens. Be ready just in case....

Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

DOW ohne Deal schon wieder auf Vor-Shutdown-Level

5
11.10.13 18:37
Getreu dem Prinzip: Bei Problemen 5 % runter, bei (Pseudo-)Lösung der Probleme 10 % rauf.

Wegen dieser Asymmetrie wird jedes Problem zu einem Rallye-Beschleuniger ;-)

Das kann sich allerdings schnell ändern, wenn sich erst mal ein neuer Downtrend etabliert hat.

Starke Short-Cover-Rallyes mit 500 Dow-Punkten Plus in 2 Tagen (wie seit vorgestern) sind typisch für die Endphase von Bullenmärkten. Sie dienen dazu, die letzten Bären um den Verstand zu bringen... ;-)

(Verkleinert auf 43%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 653154
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Die Fed-Lüge des Tages

4
11.10.13 21:13
Fedmember Rosengren sagte heute, der Taper-Aufschub war u. a. wegen des Regierungs-Shutdown nötig gewesen. Fakt ist aber, dass die Fed-Sitzung, in der die Entscheidung, nicht zu tapern, fiel, viel früher stattgefunden hatte, nämlich bereits am 18. Sept. 2013:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24152993

Der Regierungs-Shutdown hingegen erfolgte erst am 1. Oktober 2013:

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/...utdown-will-work/

Schon ziemlich traurig, wenn sich die einst honorigen Damen und Herren der Fed solcher Lügen bedienen müssen. Zumal hier jeder sieht, das gelogen wurde.

Auch die zweite Behauptung Rosengrens, schwache Wirtschaftsdaten hätten den Taper-Aufschub nötig gemacht, ist unzutreffend, siehe ZH unten.


www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-11/fed-lie-day

In what has to be the most disingenuous bullshit comment of the day, Fed's Rosengren appears to have re-written history in his lame attempt to justify the Fed's in-action at the last FOMC Meeting. His comment:

*ROSENGREN: WEAK DATA, FISCAL DISRUPTION WARRANTED TAPER DELAY

Is a total lie... 1) US Macro data had reached its highest in a year in the data preceding the decision, and 2) the government shutdown and debt-ceiling both happened well after, and only after the infamous Cruz filibuster focusing on Obamacare, which the Fed certainly had no idea was coming. If anything, the Fed's decision to not taper served as the reason why government thought it could shut down: after all stocks, pardon the Fed's balance sheet, had just hit an all time high so what really was the downside.
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Coca Cola und andere Firmen verlassen Griechenld.

3
11.10.13 21:24
blog.tagesanzeiger.ch/nevermindthemarkets/...-der-unternehmer/
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

81 % der Amis sind mit US-Politik unzufrieden

 
11.10.13 21:37
Nur noch 18 % sind zufrieden. Das ist ein Negativrekord.

Das letzte Tief lag bei 26 % und kam im Sept. 1973 beim Watergate-Skandal.

----------------------------

www.gallup.com/poll/165371/...ans-satisfaction-gov-drops-new-low.aspx

October 10, 2013
Americans' Satisfaction With U.S. Gov't Drops to New Low

Democrats remain most likely to be satisfied, but much less so than in September
by Joy Wilke

This article is part of an ongoing series analyzing how the government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling are affecting Americans' views of government, government leaders, political parties, the economy, and the country in general.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Eighteen percent of Americans are satisfied with the way the nation is being governed, down 14 percentage points from the 32% recorded last month before the partial government shutdown began. This is the lowest government satisfaction rating in Gallup's history of asking the question dating back to 1971.

Trend: Americans' Satisfaction With the Way the Nation Is Being Governed

The previous low of 19% was recorded in September 2011, just after Washington lawmakers reached a last-minute agreement that forestalled a government default. More broadly, less than half of Americans have been satisfied with the government since 2004.

These most recent data are based on an Oct. 3-6 Gallup poll, and are the latest in a series of reports underscoring the negative impact the shutdown is having on Americans' attitudes toward their government.

Prior to 2011, the lowest level of satisfaction with the way the nation is being governed was 26% recorded in September 1973 -- in the middle of the Watergate scandal.
(Verkleinert auf 91%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 653203
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Staatsverschuldungen in Prozent des BIP

13
12.10.13 09:20

Quelle: Foto-Strecke im WSJ:
www.wsj.de/article/...4052702304520704579127274197090820.html#slide/1

Die Rangliste widerspiegelt die Solidität der jeweiligen Staatsfinanzen:

1. Saudi-Arabien (3,5 %)
2. Usbekistan (8,5 %)
3. Estland (9,7 %)

4. Russland (10,4 %)
5. Chile (11,1 %)
6. China (21,3 %)
7. Kongo (25,4 % - nach massivem Schuldenschnitt)
8. Australien (27,6 %)
9. Südkorea (32,5 %)
10. Norwegen (34,1 %)
11. Türkei (35,5 %)
12. Schweden (37,7 %)
13. Argentinien (42,4 % - nach Staatspleite 2002 und Schuldenteilerlass)
14. Schweiz (48,3 %)
15. Indien (66,4 %)
16. Brasilien (67,2 %)
17. Österreich (74,2 %)
18. Niederlande (74,5 %)
19. Ungarn (79,9 %)
20. Deutschland (80,4 %)
21. Kanada (87 % - stieg nach der 2008-Krise sprunghaft an)
22. Spanien (91,8 % - stieg nach der Immbilien-Krise von zuvor 36 %)
23. Frankreich (92,7 % - Tendenz: weiter steigend)
24. Großbritannien (93,6 % - von nur 43 % in 2007)
25. Belgien (100,3 %)
26. USA (108,1 % - trotz neuer BIP-Kalkulation, die nun iPhone-Songs etc. einrechnet)
27. Singapur (108,2 % - steig stark seit 2008)
28. Irland (122,0 % - von nur 25 % in 2007. Grund: geplatzte Immo-Blase)
29. Portugal (122,3 %)
30. Italien (130,6 % - siehe: www.ariva.de/forum/Stirbt-der-Euro-in-Italien-489039 )
31. Griechenland (179,5 % - TROTZ bereits erfolgtem erstem Schuldenschnitt)
32. Japan (245,4 % - ist nur wegen relativem Reichtum der Japaner tragbar, die Staatsschuld bleibt dadurch im eigenen Land. QE seit 2000 blieb erfolglos)


Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Weiterhin Polit-Hickhack in USA

6
12.10.13 09:54
www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-11/...r-increasing-u-s-debt-limit.html
www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-12/...as-talks-edge-toward-a-deal.html

Bei den heute anstehenden Verhandlungen zwischen Dems und Reps gibt es zwar ein wechselseitiges Entgegenkommen, aber Obama scheint nicht an einem Provisiorium interessiert zu sein, das den Streit nur für 6 Wochen aufschiebt und ihn dann erneut aufflammen lässt.

Neu ist, dass die Verhandlungen über eine Ende der Regierungsschließung und über die Aufstockung der Schuldengrenze nun nicht mehr gemeinsam "im Paket" verhandelt werden sollen.

D.h. der Regierungs-Shutdown könnte - durch Verabschiedung eines provisorischen Haushalts - am Montag enden, während die Reps in der Debatte um die Erhöhung der Schuldengrenze weiter Stunk machen. Sie wollen nach wie vor die Erhöhung der Schuldengrenze ab 17. Okt. von Abstrichen bei Obamas Gesundheitsreform abhängig zu machen.

Für die Börsen wäre das kurzfristig eher negativ bis enttäuschend, weil die Ungewissheit bezüglich der Schuldengrenzen-Aufstockung "in der Luft" bleibt. Auch die Verabschiedung des finalen (längerfristigen) Haushalts bliebe in der Schwebe.

In den US-Indizes wurde in der heftigen Shortcover-Rallye am Donnerstag/Freitag (der DOW stieg an den beiden Tagen um zusammen ca. 430 Punkte)  bereits eine "Doppellösung" vor-eingepreist, die am Montag womöglich teils wieder ausgepreist wird, weil bei den Verhandlungen nur ein (fauler) Kompromiss heraus kommt.

Die finale Lösung im Streit könnte ein Art Pyrrhus-Sieg der Reps bringen: Sie könnten die 2010 verabschiedete Medical Device Tax (Teil von Obamas Reform) kippen oder aufschieben. So können sie zumindest vor ihrer Klientel behaupten, Veränderungen in "Obamacare" herausgeholt zu haben - so geringfügig diese auch ausfallen mögen.

Das Problem der Reps ist, dass sie politisch immer stärker unter Druck kommen, weil sie von den Amis als Hauptverursacher der aktuellen Probleme wahrgenommen werden.

Die Zufriedenheit der Amerikaner mit der US-Politik ist gemäß einer aktuellen Gallup-Umfrage auf den Negativ-Rekordwert von 18 % gesunkden. Das letzte Tief von 26 % wurde 1973 beim Watergate-Skandal erreicht (# 123).

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