Der USA Bären-Thread

von der Fed verbreiteten Schönwetterstimmung Kredenz zu verleihen.

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-30/...ust-fails-send-sp-back-over-2000

To 'prove' that the end of QE3 is not a negative for stocks and to 'confirm' the Fed's narrative that the economy is surging (despite all the unsustainable one-offs in the GDP print), algos are tearing stocks higher, targeting the crucial 2,000 S&P level... thanks to 2-week old headlines from Japan, a broken options market, and the NYSE unable to report trades... As Nanex notes "this is a bigger event than the 2013 market blackout"

Despite the best efforts the best they could manage was 1999.40 before the reality of a not-broken market kicked in...

man  kann es  auch so sagen yelen   hat  mi  diesen äusserungen mr. draghi  einen gefallen  getan, der hat  nun  den  freibrief  zum  drucken  bekommen........

www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/ezb-ernennt-banken-fuer-abs-kaeufe-1.18415232

EZB ernennt Banken für ABS-Käufe
30.10.2014, 19:03 Uhr

cae. Frankfurt Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat am Donnerstag vier Asset-Manager bestimmt, die künftig in ihrem Namen und nach ihren Vorgaben forderungsbesicherte Wertpapiere (Asset Backed Securities, ABS) kaufen werden. Die Notenbank startet im November ihr ABS-Programm, mit dem sie Wertpapiere, die mit Krediten besichert sind, kaufen wird, um wiederum die Kreditvergabe der Banken an die Realwirtschaft anzukurbeln. Für die operative Ausführung dieser Käufe hatte sie in einem Ausschreibungsverfahren Vermögensverwaltungsspezialisten gesucht. Aus den Bewerbern hat sie nun Amundi and Amundi Intermédiation, Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, ING Investment Management und State Street Global Advisors ausgewählt. Diese vier Manager werden die Papiere für die Notenbank kaufen, allerdings wird den Kaufentscheid einzig und allein die EZB fällen.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...ocks-market-with-fresh-easing-2014-10-31

Japan central bank shocks market with fresh easing

In an unexpected move, the Bank of Japan’s policy board voted by a 5-to-4 margin to expand the pace of its quantitative easing, sending Tokyo stocks soaring and the Japanese yen falling sharply.

The central bank expanded the size of its Japanese Government Bond purchases to the equivalent of “about 80 trillion yen” ($727 billion) a year, an increase of ¥30 trillion [= 37,5 % mehr! A.L.] from the previous pace. It said it would also buy longer-dated JGBs, seeking an average remaining maturity of 7-10 years.

The central bank also said it would triple its purchases of exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts.

Concerns about dwindling inflation appeared to drive the move, with the Bank of Japan saying that “on the price front, somewhat weak developments in demand following the [April 1] consumption-tax hike and a substantial decline in crude-oil prices have been exerting downward pressure recently.”

It said that “if the current downward pressure on prices remains ... there is a risk that conversion of deflationary mindset, which has so far been progressing steadily, might be delayed.”

It also added that the so-called “quantitative and qualitative easing” program would continue “as long as it is necessary.”

Earlier in the day, data showed that Japan’s inflation rate in September had hit its lowest level in almost a year.

Most economists had expected no action at the current meeting, and the surprise sent the U.S. dollar USDJPY, +1.46%   jumping to ¥110.55 in less than half an hour, up from around ¥109.37 just ahead of the decision. It marked the dollar’s highest level against its Japanese counterpart since before the 2008 global financial crash.

Likewise, Japanese stocks surged, with the benchmark Nikkei Average NIK, +5.37%   up 4.7%, compared to a 1.6% gain just prior to the announcement.

(aus MW-Link oben)

Das ist angesichts der Inflationsgefahr, die das kollektive Gelddrucken heraufbeschwört, fundamental "unlogisch". Real dürften die Gold-Kursverluste daraus resultieren, dass große Hedgefonds aus Gold rausgehen und in Aktien umschichten. (Typischerweise am Hoch, die großen  Trader sind keinesfalls klüger als die Kleinanlegerdeppen).

man schaue sich das nochmal an ...
http://www.ariva.de/forum/...en-Thread-283343?page=4540#jumppos113501
Danach ging es 1200 Punkte runter im DOW.
Mal sehen wie es heute zum Handelsschluss aussieht, man achte wieder auf eine Kerze über dem BB oben. So endete jedenfalls die Hausse 2007:

anders  sein,  weil  die  situation   scheinbar  eine  andere ist .....

Alles andere ist Schrott, besonders Gold.

Wer sich dem nicht öffnet, wird finanzielle Verluste mit seinen Anlagen hinnehnem müssen.

Don't fight the Fed.
Die haben seit 2008 die Kontrolle übernommen!

bringen langfristig keine erhellende Erkenntnis.

... nämlich wenn das allem Marktgeschehen zugrundeliegende (Zins-) Geldsystem sich seinem Ende nähert. Das Ende ist da wenn sich das durch Zins und Zinseszins angesammelte Buchvermögen durch die mögliche Produktivität einfach nicht mehr weiter nennenswert verzinsen läßt. Das wir letzteren Zustand bereits erreicht haben ist offensichtlich. Die FED verstärkt mit der Schaffung neuen Buchvermögens genau diesen Effekt, obwohl sie glaubt das Gegenteil erreichen zu können.
Die Aktienmärkte wird es zerrupfen nicht weil die Unternehmensbeteiligungen einen unangemessenen Wert haben sondern weil eine aus welchen Gründen auch immer beginnende Abwärtsbewegung sich verselbstständigen wird und erst nach einer Übertreibung enden wird.

La Paloma ohe -
einmal muss es vorbei sein!
Nur Erinn'rung an Stunden des Anstiegs
bleibt noch an Land zurück.
Bärenbraut ist die See,
und nur ihr kann ich treu sein.
Wenn der Sturmwind sein Lied singt,
dann winkt mir des Großen Absturz'
Glück!

Das ist schon ganz ordentlich. Wird nur von 40 % in Wodka getoppt.

www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-31/...an-expected-to-9-5-on-ruble.html

Russia Raises Rate More Than Expected to 9.5% on Ruble

Russia’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate more than forecast by economists, bringing it to the highest level since it was introduced 13 months ago to halt a currency run that’s stoking inflation.

The Bank of Russia raised its key rate to 9.5 percent percent from 8 percent, according to a website statement. The move surprised all 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Twenty-two predicted a move to 8.5 percent and two forecast a shift to 9 percent, with increases of a quarter-point and 75 basis points forecast by one each. Five economists saw no change.

Governor Elvira Nabiullina has moved to tighten policy since the crisis in Ukraine flared in March, increasing borrowing costs to cool inflation expectations and halt the largest capital outflows since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008. The ruble gained the most among developing-nation currencies yesterday, rebounding from a record as speculation mounted that the central bank will raise rates.

“Significant changes in external conditions have taken place: a considerable fall in oil prices [gewollt, A.L.] and stricter sanctions imposed by certain countries,” the central bank said in the statement. “As a result the ruble depreciated -- that together with restrictions on the import of certain food items imposed in August resulted in further acceleration in consumer-price growth.”

The central bank juggled faster inflation and sluggish economic growth before the ruble moved to the forefront of policy concerns. The regulator, which plans to move to a free float regime from 2015, intervened on the currency market in October for the first time since May, selling almost $27 billion, central bank data show.

The currency defense has sapped international reserves, bringing the stockpile to $439.1 billion, near the lowest level in four years. Capital outflows reached $85.2 billion in the first nine months of the year, the highest since 2008, when the exodus reached $133.6 billion.

Russia won’t “mindlessly burn up” reserves to defend its currency, President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 24. The U.S., Ukraine and the European Union accuse Russia of sending cash, arms and fighters to aid separatist rebels in Ukraine.

A weaker ruble boosts prices of imports [spielt bei den Sanktionen immer weniger eine Rolle, A.L.], feeding the inflation rate that was already on the rise after Putin retaliated in August against U.S. and European sanctions over Ukraine by restricting a range of food imports. The currency’s devaluation is adding as much as 2 percentage points to inflation, Deputy Economy Minister Alexei Vedev said Oct. 27.

That won’t sit well with a majority of Russians, for whom inflation is the top concern, according to a July poll published by the state-run VTsIOM research center. Price growth accelerated to 8 percent from a year earlier in September, the fastest in three years and double the regulator’s medium-term target.

“The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis,” Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London, said before the announcement. “The central bank needs to regain the initiative. A first step would be to raise interest rates by more than the market expects at this week’s board meeting.”

-----------------

USD zum Rubel seit 1995:

wegen der Rubelangriffe , aber das träfe wohl die Falschen, die nichts dafür können.
W.Putin wird sich schon zu wehren wissen, bzw ihm wird schon was einfallen.

The quintessential ingredient in the stew that makes up a thriving housing market has been evaporating in America. And a recent phenomenon has taken over: private equity firms, REITs, and other Wall-Street funded institutional investors have plowed the nearly free money the Fed has graciously made available to them since 2008 into tens of thousands of vacant single-family homes to rent them out. And an apartment building boom has offered alternatives too.

Since the Fed has done its handiwork, institutional investors have driven up home prices and pushed them out of reach for many first-time buyers, and these potential first-time buyers are now renting homes from investors instead. Given the high home prices, in many cases it may be a better deal. And apartments are often centrally located, rather than in some distant suburb, cutting transportation time and expenses, and allowing people to live where the urban excitement is. Millennials have figured it out too, as America is gradually converting to a country of renters.

So in its inexorable manner, homeownership has continued to slide in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department......Homeownership since 2008 dropped across all age groups. But the largest drops occurred in the youngest age groups. In the under-35 age group, where first-time buyers are typically concentrated, home ownership has plunged from 41.3% in 2008 to 36.0%; and in the 35-44 age group, from 66.7% to 59.1%, with a drop of over a full percentage point just in the last quarter – by far the steepest.

Homeownership, however, didn’t peak at the end of the last housing bubble just before the financial crisis, but in 2004 when it reached 69.2%......wolfstreet.com/2014/10/29/the-american-dream-gone-bust/

.......The sanctions and counter-sanctions have an impact, it would seem, but the ruble hasn’t been exactly a hard currency: from July 2008 through today, it lost 45% of its value against the dollar, which itself lost 10% to inflation.

So this month, the Central Bank of Russia has been selling $20 billion of its stash of foreign currency and buying rubles to mop them up and relieve some pressure. But rather than trying to stop or reverse the ruble’s decline, the Central Bank appears to be managing the decline. A sudden crash of the ruble could have chaotic consequences, while an orderly decline in the middle of a currency war might not be the worst fate.

There are many losers when a currency gets devalued, but that hasn’t stopped the Fed or any other central bank. They’re beyond this sort of thought. They’re managing a currency! And there is only one direction into which they manage that currency: down. In that respect, Russia is just now winning the currency war. Even if it doesn’t want to.

A threat hangs over the EU: that Russia, pushed to the edge, could stop the flow of natural gas. Eurocrats claim that it wouldn’t be such a big deal, that no one would be without gas. But a leaked report from the German government explains that it would wreak havoc on German industry.wolfstreet.com/2014/10/28/...nctions-russia-wins-currency-war/

It cuts no ice if you are a classical monetarist and think that QE works its magic through the quantity of money effect, most potently by boosting broad M3/M4 money through purchases of assets outside the banking system. Pessimists argue that the world economy is so weak that it needs a minimum of $85bn a month of Fed money creation (not to be confused with zero interest rates) just to avoid stalling again.

It is no great mystery why the world is caught in this "liquidity trap", or "secular stagnation" if you prefer. Fixed capital investment in China is still running at $5 trillion a year, and still overloading the world with excess capacity in everything from solar panels to steel and ships, even after Xi Jinping’s Third Plenum reforms.

Europe has been starving the world of demand by tightening fiscal policy into a depression, running a $400bn current account surplus that is now big enough to distort the global system as a whole. George Saravelos, at Deutsche Bank, dubs it the "Euroglut", the largest surplus in the history of financial markets. The global savings rate has risen to a fresh record of 25.5pc of GDP, the flipside of chronic under-consumption. ...........

The Fed pivot comes at a delicate moment because China’s (PBOC) is at the same time winding down stimulus, trying to tame China’s $25 trillion credit monster before it is too late. The central bank has not yet blinked - beyond minor short-term liquidity shots - even though bad loans are rising fast at the big state banks.

China became a net seller of global bonds in the third quarter (even adjusting for currency effects). It was buying $35bn a month earlier this year.

The move was well-flagged in advance. Premier Li Keqiang said in May that excess foreign reserves had become a "burden" and were making it impossible for China to run a sovereign monetary policy. The policy shift automatically entails monetary tightening – vis-à-vis the status quo ante – unless China acts to sterilise the effects. It has not done so. We have seen a sudden stop in China’s “proxy QE”. ....
Brazil, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand all cut their foreign reserves in the third quarter. Korea slashed net purchases from $25bn to $9bn, and India from $43bn to $12bn. Russia is now burning through its reserves to defend the rouble. Others oil states will have to do the same to cover their budgets.

Net bond stimulus by all the global central banks together has fallen by roughly $125bn a month since the end of last year, an annualised pace of $1.5 trillion. We have seen an abrupt halt to the $10.2 trillion of net reserve accumulation since 2000........I may be wrong, but it strikes me as implausible that the ECB will risk launching QE on a massive scale as long as both German members are opposed. The bank can dabble at the edges, as it is doing now, but a reflation blitz requires German political assent. ......
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...damn-the-torpedoes.html

It cuts no ice if you are a classical monetarist and think that QE works its magic through the quantity of money effect, most potently by boosting broad M3/M4 money through purchases of assets outside the banking system. Pessimists argue that the world economy is so weak that it needs a minimum of $85bn a month of Fed money creation (not to be confused with zero interest rates) just to avoid stalling again.

It is no great mystery why the world is caught in this "liquidity trap", or "secular stagnation" if you prefer. Fixed capital investment in China is still running at $5 trillion a year, and still overloading the world with excess capacity in everything from solar panels to steel and ships, even after Xi Jinping’s Third Plenum reforms.

Europe has been starving the world of demand by tightening fiscal policy into a depression, running a $400bn current account surplus that is now big enough to distort the global system as a whole. George Saravelos, at Deutsche Bank, dubs it the "Euroglut", the largest surplus in the history of financial markets. The global savings rate has risen to a fresh record of 25.5pc of GDP, the flipside of chronic under-consumption. ...........

The Fed pivot comes at a delicate moment because China’s (PBOC) is at the same time winding down stimulus, trying to tame China’s $25 trillion credit monster before it is too late. The central bank has not yet blinked - beyond minor short-term liquidity shots - even though bad loans are rising fast at the big state banks.

China became a net seller of global bonds in the third quarter (even adjusting for currency effects). It was buying $35bn a month earlier this year.

The move was well-flagged in advance. Premier Li Keqiang said in May that excess foreign reserves had become a "burden" and were making it impossible for China to run a sovereign monetary policy. The policy shift automatically entails monetary tightening – vis-à-vis the status quo ante – unless China acts to sterilise the effects. It has not done so. We have seen a sudden stop in China’s “proxy QE”. ....
Brazil, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand all cut their foreign reserves in the third quarter. Korea slashed net purchases from $25bn to $9bn, and India from $43bn to $12bn. Russia is now burning through its reserves to defend the rouble. Others oil states will have to do the same to cover their budgets.

Net bond stimulus by all the global central banks together has fallen by roughly $125bn a month since the end of last year, an annualised pace of $1.5 trillion. We have seen an abrupt halt to the $10.2 trillion of net reserve accumulation since 2000........I may be wrong, but it strikes me as implausible that the ECB will risk launching QE on a massive scale as long as both German members are opposed. The bank can dabble at the edges, as it is doing now, but a reflation blitz requires German political assent. ......
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...damn-the-torpedoes.html

Gestern konfigurierte die Kurskurve des NDX nach einem fulminanten Up-Gap einen Hanging Man mit schwarzem Kerzenkörper. Sollte diese Kerze isoliert oben stehen bleiben und  von roten Kerzen, bevorzugt mit Down-Gaps, gefolgt werden, wäre dies ein ernstes Warnzeichen.  

Die kurze Zeitebene lässt erkennen, dass dem Up-Gap zum Handelsbeginn kaum nennenswerter Anschlusshandel folgte.

wawida hatte in #847 ja auf den Hanging Man im NDX hingewiesen. Den gabs im DJI auch, bei investing.com war den ganzen die gigantische Aufwärtslücke zu sehen. Der Kerzenkörper lag über dem BB oben, von mir in http://www.ariva.de/forum/...en-Thread-283343?page=4553#jumppos113833 erwartet. Heute ist dieses Signal für signifikante Kursrückgänge verschwunden?! Die richtige Kerze habe ich dem Chart hinzugefügt.

Laut den Economic Data der Federal Bank of Louis (FRED) betrugen die Passiva (total liabilities and equities - ja, auch ausgegebene Aktien sind Passiva! -) 85,6 Bio. $.

Die finanziellen Aktiva (total financial assets = alle finanzielle Vermögenswerte bzw. Kapitalanlagen) beliefen sich auf 83,4 Bio.$.

"Available-for-sale" sind jedoch weniger als 15 % der Aktiva, d.h. es dürfte schwierig sein, mehr als diese Vermögenswerte kurz- bis mittelfristig zu Cash zu machen.