Zurück
Weiter
|
Die gravierende Pleite ist die von Colonial BancGroup mit 25 Mrd. Dollar an Einlagen. Die Pleite kostet den Deposit Insurance Fund der FDIC rund 2,8 Milliarden Dollar.
Aug 14, 2009, 11:52 p.m. EST
Colonial BancGroup becomes biggest bank failure of 2009
BB&T takes over after FDIC shuts Alabama lender at cost of $2.8 billion
By Alistair Barr & Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Colonial BancGroup Inc. became the largest bank failure this year after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized the struggling Alabama-based lender Friday and sold it to BB&T Corp.
Late Friday, the FDIC announced four other banks had been closed: Community Bank of Las Vegas and its Arizona subsidiary, Community Bank of Arizona; Union Bank, Gilbert, Ariz; and Dwelling House Savings and Loan, Pittsburgh.
The Colonial BancGroup deal will knock roughly $2.8 billion off a pool of money, known as the Deposit Insurance Fund, which the FDIC maintains to guarantee bank customer deposits.
BB&T agreed to assume all of Colonial's deposits, which totaled about $20 billion at the end of June, the FDIC said. Depositors of Colonial will automatically become depositors of BB&T and customers can continue accessing their money by writing checks or using ATMs and debit cards, the regulator stressed.
Colonial had $25 billion in assets at the end of June. That makes it the largest bank failure this year, exceeding the collapse of Florida's BankUnited Financial , which had less than $13 billion in assets. See full story.
BB&T agreed to buy about $22 billion of Colonial's assets. The FDIC said it will hold on to the rest - about $3 billion worth - and will try to sell them later.
The FDIC and BB&T will share losses on $15 billion of Colonial's assets. Loss-sharing deals have become common since the financial crisis struck last year, as the FDIC tries to encourage more stable banks to take over failing institutions.
This year, 78 banks have failed this year as a lingering recession and surging unemployment leaves the industry nursing heavy loan losses. More than 1,000 banks may fail during the next three to five years, RBC Capital Markets estimated in February.
The FDIC estimated Friday that the Colonial deal will cost its Deposit Insurance Fund about $2.8 billion. The regulator recently imposed a one-time assessment on banks to top the fund up. However, the surge in bank failures has increased concern about the fund, despite the fact that the FDIC can borrow hundreds of billions of dollars from the Treasury Department if it needs to.
"Today, after protecting almost $300 billion in deposits since the current financial crisis began, the FDIC's guarantee is as certain as ever," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a statement late Friday. "Our industry funded reserves have covered all losses to date. In fact, losses from today's failures are lower than had been projected."
Shares of Colonial dropped 12% to 41 cents before trading was halted Friday morning. BB&T shares jumped more than 9% to close at $28.43.
BB&T, with more than $150 billion in assets, is seen by some analysts as a beneficiary of bank failures. Many closures have happened in the Southeast of the U.S., where BB&T is a dominant player.
Colonial Bank "is probably a manageable purchase although we expect some losses from the purchase," said Egan-Jones Ratings, a rating agency that's paid by investors rather than issuers, in a statement Friday.
Colonial wasn't the only lender to fail on Friday.
Pittsburgh, Pa.-based Dwelling House Savings and Loan Association was closed by federal regulators. Dwelling had total assets of $13.4 million and $13.8 billion in deposits at the end of March, the FDIC said.
PNC Bank N.A., owned by PNC Financial Services /quotes/comstock/13*!pnc/quotes/nls/pnc, agreed to purchase about $3 million of the failed bank's assets. The FDIC estimated the failure will cost its Deposit Insurance Fund $6.8 million.
Stärkstes Gegenargument: Eine Umfrage von "Chief Executive Magazine" unter 266 CEOs hat ergeben, dass deren Vertrauensindex von 74,3 (nach der Lehman-Pleite) auf jetzt 63 gefallen ist.
Auf der CEO-Ebene sieht man daher einen ähnlichen Vertrauensschwund wie bei den Konsumentenbefragungen, deren Ergebnisse in den letzten drei Monaten deutlich fielen (während die "Erwartungen" unverändert hoch blieben...)
August: 63,2 (erwartet: 69 bis 70)
Juni: 69 (erwartet: 69,2 bis 70)
Financial Adviser Update
Kass: Experts Agree, Recession Is Over
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
8/14/2009 11:35 AM EDT
Phew, I am now relieved!
I am comforted in the knowledge that on Tuesday a CNBC poll revealed that 90% of Wall Street economists believe that the recession has ended and that a Bloomberg survey (also this week) showed that the consensus sees real U.S. GDP expanding at annual rate of at least 2% for the next four quarters.
That's the same group of economists who failed to recognize the consequences of a bubble in stock prices in 1998-2000, the meaning of a three standard deviation event in rising home prices (and affordability), the fallout from a bubble in credit, the broad ramifications of a derivative market gone wild and an imminent recession several years ago.
And that's the same group of economists who interpret a statistical recovery as a self-sustaining economy that is incapable of double-dipping under the influence of numerous nontraditional headwinds.
The economists' conclusions must also be comforting to those Americans without jobs that don't count as unemployed because they have been dropped from the labor force and all the people getting foreclosed on in a housing market that has "bottomed." (As an aside, can unemployment ever exceed 10% given the fact that apparently jobless folks don't count as unemployed after some point?)
Yesterday's retail release was punk -- in the aggregate and at Wal-Mart (WMT) -- though the markets again ignored it. Consumption remains weak, even with savings at lower levels than many feared at only 4% to 5%. I have wondered what the downside to cost-cutting and productivity gains is as the paradox of thrift (and its implications) could haunt us in 2010. One also has to wonder how far into the inventory re-stocking process we stand as jobs, income and consumption continue to move in a southerly direction. And one has to wonder what the downside to productivity is and how large the permanent reduction in employment will be as companies begin to realize that they can run on less.
Those surveyed economists apparently don't recognize the abnormality of the last cycle's leveraged and credit drivers, which occurred amid weakened job and income growth, and that their conclusion that the U.S. economy faces a normal or routine recovery seems more of a wish than reality (even in spite of the magnitude of the monetary/fiscal stimulation).
With the earnings-reporting period almost over, the cheerleading surrounding such a great earnings season has reached a crescendo, but in reality, with so many companies missing their sales guidance, there was not, as Gertrude Stein once said, all that much there there. The paradox of earnings is that an economy cannot cut its way to prosperity. From my perch, a more objective middle-ground reaction is necessary.
While the market participants once again wear their rose-colored glasses, the current conditions reading, which shows pretty clearly that, nine months after it happened, CEOs absolutely feel worse than they did in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman debacle. For instance, confidence among CEOs weakened to 63.0 in July from 74.3 a month earlier, according to Chief Executive magazine's CEO Confidence Index, which surveys 266 executives.
In the current bull market for complacency and cheerleading, investors are increasingly embracing almost any news in a positive if not promotional manner. Speculation, which always sows the seeds to its own destruction, is all too obvious over there, in China, as there are more day-traders than Carter has liver pills and as IPOs triple and quadruple on their opening trades, which is all too reminiscent of the U.S. equity market in the late 1990s.
It is clear to any logical, unbiased market observant that the economy has not turned around. Wells has a $115B option ARM portfolio from its Wachovia acquisition and is marking it at 81 cents on the dollar. Meanwhile, housing prices have plummetted over 50% since most of these loans were written and even still, they are experiencing negative amortization. JP Morgan has over $40B in option ARM exposure, nearly $90B if off-balance sheet vehicles are counted. GE has $450B+ of short-term debt to be rolled over, an $8B immediate payment required in the event of a GECC credit rating cut, a TA/TCE leverage ratio of over 200x, and an “other” asset category worth more than overall GE shareholders equity. Citi still has a TA/TCE of over 50x, $1.8T of assets (almost $3T if off-balance sheet SPVs are included), and $115B in short-term debt that needs to be rolled over by issuing more equity before the 1.7% decline in its assets needed to wipe out out the entirety of its TCE occurs.
Commercial real estate is a $3T problem for CMBS holders, but also banks and insurers, which hold the whole loans that contribute to over 70% of the problem. Mall vacancies over 10% and office vacancies over 15% aren’t helping. The Federal Reserve wrote down losses of almost 30% in commercial mortgages and almost 40% in residential mortgages in its Maiden Lane balance sheet, while Citi continues marking both residential and commercial loans and securities at 90-95+ cents to par. Citi has an enormous CRE book and a further 20-25% write-down on its CRE assets would easily drain all of its equity. All you need to do to see how deep Citi’s valuations are embedded in fantasyland is go check out some strip malls and office space uptown.
shadowcapitalism.com/2009/07/13/...sk-pervade-capital-markets/
"Die Fed schreibt Verluste ab, Citi nicht"
... würde ich Verluste auch abschreiben ;-))
Market Snapshot
Aug 14, 2009, 5:14 p.m. EST
Bank credit worries slow financials' rally
High-flying sector flip-flops as analysts look to 2010, investors dig for deals
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Conflicting views over lingering credit problems are whipsawing financial stocks, which have outpaced the broader market in the latest leg of the rally, potentially setting up the sector for a steeper fall even as some analysts see fresh reasons to buy beaten-down stocks.
On Friday, the sector slid after an analyst's gloomy take on insurer Genworth Financial Corp.'s prospects gave investors a fresh reason to sell off some financial stocks along with the broader market. Genworth lost 5.4%, the fourth-worst decliner on the S&P 500 .
But, in keeping with the back-and-forth nature of financial stocks in recent days, two regional banks - BB&T Corp. Corp. and Regions Financial Corp. -- rallied sharply to clock in the best performance among large-cap stocks. (BB&T hat die kollabierte Colonial Bank übernommen, davon hatten Insider wohl schon vorher Wind bekommen - A.L.).
Regions jumped 8.5% after analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing the company's relative capital cushion, according to flyonthewall.com. The financial sector, which led decliners early with a more than 2% drop, ended 0.9% lower.
Against that turbulent backdrop, the broader S&P 500 financial sector -- as measured by the Financial Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund - has gained 28% since the recent surge in U.S. stocks got going July 10. That's compared to a 14% rally on the S&P 500.
Wall Street bumps up banks
Median, 12-month price targets
| current target | 6/30/09 target | +/- from 6/30 | Friday's share price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America (BAC) | $17 | $16.50 | + | $16.86 |
| J.P. Morgan (JPM) | $44 | $42 | + | $41.97 |
| Citigroup (C) | $4 | $3.5 | + | $4.05 |
| Regions Finanacial (RF) | $5 | $6 | - | $5.43 |
| Sun Trust Banks (STI) | $18 | $18 | same | $21.10 |
| Marshall & Ilsley (MI) | $6.5 | $7 | - | $7.26 |
| Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) | $9 | $8 | + | $10.47 |
| Zions Bancorp (ZION) | $13 | $13.03 | - | $16.88 |
Some investors and analysts say they're still worried that banks and other financial institutions could book more ugly losses from exposure to real estate and mortgage markets.
"I'd love to buy banks, but the problem is when you come off the biggest credit bubble in history," said Jeff Auxier, chief executive of $400 million Auxier Asset Management in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Mid-sized banks, for instance "look cheap but you don't know how much they need to shore up their balance sheets," he said.
Citigroup analyst Colin Devine on Friday cited "deteriorating fundamentals" for his decision to cut Genworth shares to sell from hold, saying a recent rally in shares pushed them to a level "where we no longer find them attractive given a very uncertain earnings outlook and capital position."
Keefe Bruyette & Woods analysts started the week off suggesting that the prior week's rally "is likely to fade as the economic rebound turns out to be modest and credit issues linger well into 2010 and beyond."
Even more damning, Miller Tabak analyst Thomas Mitchell said he expected many banks to report either near-zero or negative earnings per share next year, putting expected earnings at odds with current prices and prompting him to slash Zions Bancorp. and Regions ratings to sell. Shares in Zions, a regional bank based in Salt Lake City, dropped 8.4% on Tuesday and, despite a recovery in recent days, ended the week 0.6% lower.
Despite concerns by Mitchell and others, the sector has also staged big one-day recoveries on some days as investors (Daytrader - A.L.) took heart from signs of U.S. economic recovery and the disclosure that a well-known investor had bought up bank stocks.
Stocks in national banks such as Bank of America Corp. and mid-sized regional banks such as Fifth Third Bancorp. , Zions and SunTrust Banks bounced sharply higher Thursday after hedge-fund manager John Paulson revealed his firm had added shares in several banks in the second quarter.
Some of these stocks have been favorites of investors, in part because they fell so heavily in the past year...
Kommentar von Martin Hüfner, Börse Frankfurt:
....Was wir im Augenblick sehen, ist noch kein Aufschwung, auch nicht der Beginn... Wer mehr darin sieht, unterliegt einer optischen Täuschung. Vor allem ist dies noch kein Grund, die Prognosen für die weitere Entwicklung anzuheben, wie das im Augenblick geschieht. Dazu muss mehr geschehen.
Um das zu verstehen, ist es vielleicht ganz hilfreich, sich die Mechanismen (und die dahinter liegenden volkwirtschaftlichen Annahmen) eines Konjunkturaufschwungs etwas näher anzuschauen. Nach dem Lehrbuch geht eine Rezession dann zu Ende, wenn die Unternehmen erkennen, dass sie die Nachfrage zu schwach eingeschätzt haben. Sie stocken dann ihre Läger auf. Das schafft Nachfrage bei ihren Vorlieferanten und führt dort zu zusätzlicher Produktion, Beschäftigung und Einkommen. Wenn die Einkommen der neuen Beschäftigten ausgegeben werden, entsteht erneut Nachfrage (diesmal beim Konsum). So entwickelt sich dann eine kumulative Bewegung nach oben. Auf die Rezession folgt der Aufschwung.
Diesmal ist es aber ganz anders. Es sind nicht die Unternehmen, die erkennen, dass sie die Lage zu pessimistisch eingeschätzt haben. Es ist der Staat, der ein zu starkes Absacken der Nachfrage verhindert. Er nahm dafür neue Schulden auf und gab sie in Form von eigenen Aufträgen oder Zuschüssen für private Ausgaben (z. B. die Abwrackprämie) aus. Auf diese Weise soll zusätzliche Nachfrage auf den Märkten geschaffen und in der Wirtschaft ein Multiplikatoreffekt ausgelöst werden.
Der Multiplikator funktioniert dabei in drei Stufen. Die erste ist sehr einfach und unproblematisch. Die zusätzlichen Ausgaben des Staates führen in gleicher Höhe zu neuen Aufträgen bei den Unternehmen. Wenn der Staat EUR 100 Mio. mehr ausgibt, dann entsteht in diesem Ausmaß mehr Nachfrage und damit auch mehr Sozialprodukt. Das hat nichts mit Aufschwung zu tun. Es ist einfach nur Politik. In dieser Phase befinden wir uns derzeit.
Die zweite Stufe bringt uns schon näher an einen Aufschwung. Nach der Theorie müssten die zusätzlichen Ausgaben des Staates bei den Unternehmen dazu führen, dass sie neue Leute einstellen, ihnen Einkommen bezahlen und dass daraus dann zusätzlicher Konsum getätigt wird. Das funktioniert aber nicht automatisch. Wenn die Unternehmen die zusätzliche Nachfrage des Staates nämlich nicht als dauerhaft ansehen (was sie in der Tat ja nicht ist), werden sie allenfalls Überstunden fahren oder Leiharbeiter anheuern, aber nicht neue Jobs schaffen. Tatsächlich erwartet im Augenblick niemand, dass die gesamtwirtschaftliche Beschäftigung steigt. Es wird im Gegenteil mit einer Zunahme der Arbeitslosigkeit gerechnet. Hinzu kommt, dass es in einer solchen Situation auch unsicher ist, ob die Einkommen, die zum Beispiel durch Überstunden entstehen, wirklich für mehr Konsum verwendet werden. Wenn die Menschen nicht erwarten, dass die Krise vorbei ist, werden sie vernünftigerweise zusätzliches Geld eher sparen, es jedenfalls nicht ausgeben.
Das ist der eine Schwachpunkt. Bisher ist nicht erkennbar, ob der Staat mit seinen zusätzlichen Ausgaben wirklich einen kumulativen Prozess in der Wirtschaft und beim privaten Konsum auslöst.
Noch schwieriger und unsicherer wird es in der dritten Stufe des Multiplikators. Hier spricht man vom sogenannten Akzelerator. Gemeint ist, dass die Unternehmen auf die vom Staat ausgelöste Nachfrage dadurch reagieren, dass sie nicht nur Leute einstellen, sondern auch neue Maschinen und Ausrüstungen kaufen und damit ihre Kapazitäten erweitern.
Diese Investitionsnachfrage löst dann wiederum mehr Beschäftigung, neue Einkommen und neuen Konsum aus. Damit kommt die konjunkturelle Dynamik endgültig in Schwung. Sie wird nachhaltig. Wenn die Unternehmen allerdings der Meinung sind, dass die staatlichen Aufträge nur vorübergehend sind, und wenn Bankkredite knapp sind, werden sie mit Investitionen zurückhaltend sein. Der Akzelerator wirkt nicht.
Das ist nicht nur graue Theorie Es hat schon manches Deficit Spending gegeben, das sich aus den geschilderten Gründen als Strohfeuer entpuppte und schnell wieder erloschen ist. Ein Beispiel ist die Entwicklung der Konjunktur in den USA. Im zweiten Quartal vorigen Jahres hatte die Regierung die Nachfrage durch eine Steuersenkung angeheizt, um einen weiteren Abschwung zu verhindern. Sie war damit auch erfolgreich. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt stieg wieder an. Das Deficit Spending setzte jedoch keinen kumulativen Aufschwung in Gang. Die Folge war, dass das Wachstum im dritten Quartal schon wieder zu Ende war und die Wirtschaftsleistung wieder zurückging. Auch in Japan gelang es dem Staat in den neunziger Jahren nicht, durch Deficit Spending einen Aufschwung auszulösen. Es kam einfach nicht zu den Stufen zwei und drei des Multiplikators.
Mit dieser Analyse möchte ich nicht Pessimismus verbreiten. Ich möchte nur auf die Risiken hinweisen. Es kann sein, dass die staatlichen Maßnahmen tatsächlich einen kumulativen Prozess nach oben auslösen, die Krise vorbei ist und der Staat dann wieder beginnen kann, sein Defizit zurückzuführen (was per se dann wieder restriktiv wirkt). Dafür spricht, dass die staatlichen Programme sehr groß sind und dass sie beinahe weltweit gefahren werden. Damit kommen die Impulse auch über den Export bei den Unternehmen an (und sind daher nicht mehr so leicht als Folge staatlicher Maßnahmen zu identifizieren). Sicher ist das aber beileibe nicht. Ich wäre nicht überrascht, wenn es bei dem Prozess einigermaßen holprig und mit Rückschlägen zuginge.
Freuen wir uns über die Euphorie, mit der die Märkte die Verbesserungen in den Unternehmen und in der Gesamtwirtschaft aufnehmen. Es ist ein gutes Zeichen, dass der Funke des Optimismus überspringt und es tatsächlich wieder nach oben geht. Seien wir andererseits aber vorsichtig. Es ist höchst unwahrscheinlich, dass das in diesem Maße so weitergeht. Die Märkte sind nicht nur technisch "überkauft". Sie werden auch bald die ersten Rückschläge in der Konjunktur antizipieren und verdauen müssen.
In Japan wird der von Hüfner in # 47786 bezweifelte "Multiplikatoreffekt" der staatlichen Stimulanzpakete gemäß DB-research (Link von Daiphong) voraussichtlich nicht greifen. Dass ihn die "Restwelt" dann ebenfalls nicht lostreten kann, wie Hüfner anmahnt, erscheint somit plausibel.
Aus obiger Modell-Studie der DB zu Japan:
Zusammenfassung
In den letzten beiden Jahrzehnten erlebte Japan eine Serie von Krisen, welche alle auch durch schuldenfinanzierte Maßnahmen
bekämpft wurden. Durch diese Schuldenpolitik könnte man dem früheren Sparweltmeister nun – zumindest was die öffentlichen
Haushalte angeht – den Titel „Schuldenkönig“ verleihen. Der seit dem zweiten Weltkrieg einmalige Einbruch des Welthandels zusammen mit der Yen-Aufwertung hat nun die Exportnation Japans die nächste Krise und den rasantesten Anstieg der Staatsverschuldung beschert.
15.08.2009, 14:03 Uhr
Positiv überrascht hatten viele Unternehmen mit ihren Quartalsberichten. Vorbei. Nun drängt sich wieder die Konjunktur auf den Themenzettel der Wall Street. Börsianer fürchten, dass die gute Stimmung kippen könnte – mit entsprechenden Folgen für die Kursentwicklung. Im Blick vor allem: der für die US-Wirtschaft so wichtige Konsum.
Stocks could drift on low volume in the final weeks of summer, but traders increasingly believe a pull back is brewing in the not too distant future.
Even short interest, a powerful market driver, is waning. Goldman Sachs says the short interest ratio for the S&P 500, at 1.8 days, is at its lowest level in a decade.
Now that the earnings reporting season has wound down, traders are increasingly looking ahead to the possibility of a sell off that could shave some of the 40 plus percent gains made since early March.
In the week ahead, there are a handful of major earnings, like Home Depot, Hewlett Packard and Deere, and some important data on inflation, housing and manufacturing. Investors will also be watching for guidance on the economy from the Fed's annual huddle in Jackson Hole, Wyo., where Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gives the keynote address Friday.
"It's going to be all about the consumer next week, and I don't know if there's going to be enough players around to care. As far as this week, the market really just came off a rocket ship of a ride after the last two to three weeks of earnings season. It didn't really find the catalyst to catapult it further," said Art Hogan, managing director at Jefferies.
Hogan said he sees a combination of factors that could affect buying interest. For one, he said some of the institutions that were waiting to put money into stocks may have already done so or are holding back in anticipation of a sell off. Other factors are the big drop off in short interest that eliminates some buyers, and a trend on the part of corporate insiders to sell, rather than buy.
"Add those things together, and it takes away a core level of support we used to have. If short interest decreases significantly, which it has over the last three weeks, then that buyer is nowhere to be found," Hogan said.
Goldman Sachs strategists, in a note, said the most shorted stocks outperformed the least shorted stocks by 9 percentage points since mid-July, indicative of the short covering trend traders say has helped drive the rally. The consumer discretionary sector, among the best performers, is the most shorted sector.
Stocks ended the past week on a down note, the first weekly loss in five weeks. The Dow was down 0.5 percent at 9321, while the S&P 500 also lost a half percent to 1004. Nasdaq fell 0.7 percent to 1985, still 56 percent above its March 9 low. In the past week, consumer discretionary stocks were the worst performers, down 2.6 percent, followed by industrials, down 2 percent and materials, down 1.7 percent. The best performers were the defensive plays, health care, up 0.6 percent and utilities, up 0.3 percent.
Deutsche Bank's Chief U.S. Equities Strategist Binky Chadha said he had been expecting the market to pull back after the earnings period. "It's simply because I think most investors remain skeptical despite much better than expected results. They don't see those as sustainable or durable. I tend to disagree with that assessment in terms of what we got," he said.
Chadha said a positive was the fact that the second quarter was the first quarter where sales increased sequentially since second quarter, 2008. For the S&P 500 companies, sales were up 4.8 percent quarter over quarter. He also said companies still have the ability to generate margin improvement.
Traders have been debating whether the market will be able to shake off selling pressure because of the large amount of cash in money markets and in the hands of fund managers. They point to the approach of September, historically the worst time for stocks, as a possible pivot point when the market could correct. Many also say, absent increased negative economic news, the market has succeeded in putting in higher lows and should not have a deep correction.
"I don't think it will be very deep," said Chadha of the pull back which he says could be underway now.
"I think a lot of investors remain defensively positioned, and there are many others who have missed out on the rally and are going to start looking at their annual investment return for the year," he said. Chadha said he expects investors to pull funds from emerging markets, which he believes are overvalued, and that could be a positive for the U.S. market.
Another factor he is watching are rising oil and commodities prices. In the past week, oil was off 4.3 percent to $67.51; gold fell 1.1 percent to $948.70 per troy ounce, and grains were mixed, with soybeans down 6 percent and corn up 0.4 percent. The dollar in the past week lost 0.25 percent against a basket of currencies. It was virtually flat against the euro at $1.4188, but down 2.9 percent against the yen.
"We still remain concerned about the mix of the recovery. Oil prices are still a considerable concern. They've been keeping pace with equities," he said.
"The dollar stopping its fall or just stabilizing, let alone rising, to the extent it checks oil and commodities prices and lets them disassociate from the equities market would significantly improve the idea of sustainable recovery and would be positive for the equities market," he said. Chadha said though he does expect the dollar will eventually reconnect with foreign exchange differentials and trade in its former pattern, instead of in the "risk" trade pattern, where the dollar moves lower as commodities rise.
Chadha said despite disappointing July retail sales data in the past week, the positive surprises in economic data still outpace disappointments, a positive for stocks. However, that trend has been underway for several months and should start to slow down. He does expect third quarter earnings to contain plenty of positive surprises, a trend that should help propel the market later in the year.
Econorama
The week's housing data kicks off Monday with the National Association of Home Builders survey at 1 p.m. Housing starts for July are released Tuesday, and existing home sales are issued Friday. Producer prices inflation data is reported Tuesday.
"For me the biggest issue next week is the housing data," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at RBS. "I think we've seen strength in housing starts and I think we may incrementally see another gain in July and that's certainly welcome news, but I'm not going to get as excited about that as I would about gains in home sales."
Stanley said the government program for first time home buyers is stimulating building starts just like the "cash for clunkers" program has stimulated car sales. He expects existing home sales to come in at 5 million, and 615,000 on housing starts.
"I just don't think the whole stimulus is doing a heck of a lot. It's ironic the one program that's working better than expected is this cash for clunkers program. It's very cheap in the scheme of things ..it seems to have a huge amount of traction. Very little else in the way of fiscal stimulus has done anything," he said.
Weekly jobless claims, reported each Thursday, are also another key piece of data this week. "I think the crux of the debate between people who are optimistic and people who are pessimistic is are we going to get job growth. I think firms have cut their payrolls to the bone, and they're not going to a have a choice. They're going to have to pick up more workers. We have payrolls getting back to a positive number by the end of the year," he said, noting he does not hold a consensus view.
The disappointing consumer sentiment and retail sales numbers of the past week have not changed his view on the economy, and Stanley expects positive growth in the third quarter. "There's not a lot of evidence that things are on the cusp of breaking down again," he said. "It feels like everything is progressing as it should. From a very big picture standpoint, we're feeling pretty good about where we are. It's obviously not a very good situation, yet we're certainly progressing. A lot has changed.. where we are today versus February or March, it's been an unbelievable turn around."
Stanley, like many on Wall Street lately, spoke about how at this same time a year ago, the financial system was headed for melt down and financial firms looked ready to fall like dominos.
"It was August of '07 when this whole financial system blew up. That was the beginning of the 'hair on fire' stage of things. Lehman happened in September, but it was really August when Fannie and Freddie went down. I've been kind of holding my breath for a good part of the summer wondering if liquidity conditions would thin. ..whether there was going to be another shoe to drop. I have to say things are very different. It feels much more resilient. We certainly had a few things that could have wobbled," he said. He noted financial markets took problems at CIT in stride.
Other data this week includes the Empire State survey, reported Monday. Leading indicators for July are Thursday, as is the Philadelphia Fed survey.
Earnings Central
Retailers Lowes and Home Depot report Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Hewlett-Packard reports Tuesday, and Deere reports Wednesday. Limited Brands reports Wednesday. On Thursday, Sears Holding, Gap, Intuit, GameStop, Heinz, Hormel, Ross Stores, and Salesforce.com report. J.M. Smucker releases earnings Friday.
Aus Permanent Handelsblatt-Artikel in # 47796:
Analysten zufolge braucht der Markt aber einen neuen Schub, um den Aufwärtskurs wieder aufzunehmen. Da sehe es nicht so rosig aus. Zwar rechneten einige Volkswirte mit einem schnellen Wachstum, doch keine Konjunkturdaten belegten dies, sagte Marktstratege Fred Dickson von D.A. Davidson & Co. "Es wird eine Pause geben, damit die Fundamentaldaten dies nachholen können."
Man sollte der Ordnung halber hinzufügen, dass diese "Pause" bis zu 19 Jahre dauern kann (Nikkei nach 1990...)
|
| Wertung | Antworten | Thema | Verfasser | letzter Verfasser | letzter Beitrag | |
469 | 156.447 | Der USA Bären-Thread | Anti Lemming | ARIVA.DE | 04.01.26 10:00 | |
| 29 | 3.795 | Banken & Finanzen in unserer Weltzone | lars_3 | youmake222 | 02.01.26 11:22 | |
| 55 | PROLOGIS SBI (WKN: 892900) / NYSE | 0815ax | ARIVA.DE | 19.10.25 10:00 | ||
| Daytrading 15.05.2024 | ARIVA.DE | 15.05.24 00:02 | ||||
| Daytrading 14.05.2024 | ARIVA.DE | 14.05.24 00:02 |
