Doug Noland - 2008-03-21
"... Bank Credit surged another $38.8bn (4-wk gain of $142bn) during the most recent reporting period (3/12) to a record $9.453 TN. Bank Credit has increased $240bn y-t-d, or 12.3% annualized. Bank Credit has posted a 34-week surge of $810bn (14.3% annualized) and a 52-week rise of $1.130 TN, or 13.4%. For the week, Securities Credit jumped $63.9bn. Loans & Leases declined $25.1bn to $6.891TN (34-wk gain of $567bn). C&I loans added $2.0bn, with one-year growth of 21.4%. Real Estate loans declined $2.6bn. Consumer loans gained $3.8bn, while Securities loans declined $8.3bn. Other loans fell $20bn. Examining the liability side, Deposits jumped $47.2bn.
M2 (narrow) "money" supply gained $5.3bn to a record $7.650 TN (week of 3/10). Narrow "money" expanded $187bn over the past 10 weeks, or 13.1% annualized, with a y-o-y rise of $492bn, or 6.9%. For the week, Currency increased $2.0bn, while Demand & Checkable Deposits dropped $33.3bn. Savings Deposits jumped $38.2bn, while Small Denominated Deposits declined $1.9bn. Retail Money Fund assets added $0.3bn.
Total Money Market Fund assets (from Invest Co Inst) rose $14bn last week (11-wk gain $355bn) to a record $3.468 TN. Money Fund assets have posted a 34-week rise of $884bn (52% annualized) and a one-year increase of $1.037 TN (42.7%).
Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) issuance was a slow $3bn or so. Year-to-date total US ABS issuance of $42.6bn (tallied by JPMorgan's Christopher Flanagan) is running only 25% of the level from comparable 2007. Home Equity ABS issuance of $197 million is a fraction of comparable 2007's $91.7bn. Year-to-date CDO issuance of $6bn compares to the year ago $101bn.
Total Commercial Paper dropped $14.3bn to $1.831 TN. CP has declined $393bn over the past 32 weeks. Asset-backed CP declined $4.3bn (32-wk drop of $415bn) to $780bn. Over the past year, total CP has contracted $166bn, or 8.3%, with ABCP down $275bn, or 26%.
Fed Foreign Holdings of Treasury, Agency Debt last week (ended 3/19) surged $17.3bn to a record $2.168 TN. "Custody holdings" were up $112bn y-t-d, or 23.6% annualized, and $293bn year-over-year (15.6%). Federal Reserve Credit jumped $9.6bn to $879bn. Fed Credit has expanded $5.3bn y-t-d, while having increased $27.7bn y-o-y (3.2%).
International reserve assets (excluding gold) - as accumulated by Bloomberg's Alex Tanzi - were up $1.391 TN y-o-y, or 27.5%, to a record $6.444 TN.
Global Credit Market Dislocation Watch:
March 17 - Financial Times (Gillian Tett): "In recent years, bankers have succumbed to the idea that the credit world was all about numbers and complex computer models. These days, however, this assumption looks ever more of a falsehood. For as anyone with a classical education knows, credit takes its root from the Latin word credere ("to trust") And as the current credit turmoil now mutates into ever-more virulent forms, it is faith - or, rather, the lack of it - that has turned a subprime squall into a what is arguably the worst financial crisis in seven decades. Make no mistake: what we are witnessing right now is not just a collapse of faith in one single institution (namely Bear Stearns) or even an asset class (those dodgy subprime mortgage bonds). Instead, it stems from a loss of trust in the whole style of modern finance, with all its complex slicing and dicing of risk into ever-more opaque forms. And this trend is not just damaging the credibility of banks, but the aura of omnipotence that has enveloped institutions such as the US Federal Reserve in recent years."
March 20 - Bloomberg (Scott Lanman): "The Federal Reserve expanded collateral eligible for its auction of Treasuries to include bundled mortgage debt and securities linked to commercial- property loans. The New York Fed bank, which is conducting the $200 billion Term Securities Lending Facility program, set the amount of the first auction on March 27 at $75 billion. The new collateral list will be applied in the first weekly auction instead of the second, as originally intended. Central-bank officials are increasing efforts to ease logjams in credit markets that are exacerbating the economic slowdown by making it harder for companies and consumers to get loans. Under the program, first announced on March 11, the Fed will accept debt that's more difficult to borrow against than Treasury notes, the world's most liquid securities. 'Everyone's waiting for help at financing some of these more difficult mortgages,' said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi..."
March 20 - Bloomberg (Liz Capo McCormick): "Surging demand for U.S. Treasuries is causing failures to deliver or receive government debt in the $6.3 trillion a day market for borrowing and lending to climb to the highest level in almost four years. Failures, an indication of scarcity, surged to $1.795 trillion in the week ended March 5, the highest since May 2004... Investors seeking the safety of government debt amid the loss of confidence in credit markets pushed rates on three-month bills today to 0.387%, the lowest level since 1954... 'It shows you the kind of anxieties that are going on and the keen demand for Treasuries,' said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak... 'The rise in fails tells us about the inability of dealers to obtain Treasury collateral.'"
March 20 - Dow Jones (Emily Barrett): "Money markets were pushed to their limit Thursday in panicky trade that recalls the worst moments of last summer's liquidity crisis. Investors poured into the safest corners of the government bond markets, for fear of more bad news from the financial sector upsetting markets shuttered for the Easter long weekend, and sheltering from tumbling commodity prices and sharp fluctuations in currencies. The rush took yields on short-term Treasury bills to lows not seen in 50 years, and borrowing costs spiked higher in defiance of central banks' efforts to flood the system with super-safe collateral and additional cash. 'Liquidity in the bill market is nil,' noted one trader... 'The Street has ceased making offerings for cash and as such we cannot either.'"
March 19 - Bloomberg (Sandra Hernandez): "Treasuries rose and three-month bill rates plunged to the lowest level in almost 50 years on speculation credit market losses will widen, prompting investors to seek the relative safety of government debt. Bonds gained on concern the investment firm run by ex-Long- Term Capital Management LP chief John Meriwether is facing losses and Thornburg Mortgage Inc. may go bankrupt... 'It's a capital preservation trade,' said Michael Cloherty, an interest-rate strategist at Banc of America... 'The rationale is, 'I'll buy a bill, I know that when the thing matures I'll get 100 cents on the dollar.'"
March 19 - Dow Jones (Matthew Cowley): "JPMorgan Chase may have stepped in to save Bear Stearns, but that hasn't stopped investors from worrying about counterparty risks. The weekend maneuver by JPMorgan and the Federal Reserve seems to be more about preserving Bear Stearn's trades, rather than its business. That's why the firm's shareholders are being wiped out, but its mechanics will continue to operate under the auspices of its acquirer, JPMorgan Chase. Default by a counterparty is one of the major threats pervading crucial parts of the international financial system today; it's helped spread fear far beyond the origins of this crisis in the U.S. subprime market. The extent to which the Fed wants to avoid even testing a possible default by a major counterparty is indicative in the speed with which Bear's rescue plan was put together."
March 20 - Bloomberg (Andrew Frye): "Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the 'jumbo' mortgage specialist struggling to meet margin calls, delayed the pricing of its $1 billion convertible securities offering until March 24. 'We are continuing to work with interested, large investors' who are carrying out due diligence on the sale...a spokeswoman...said... Thornburg may declare bankruptcy if it can't raise $948 million by next week, the company said... 'It's going to be a weekend of contemplation for anyone waiting to pull the trigger on that deal,' said analyst Jason Arnold at RBC Capital Markets... 'People lost a lot of money on the previous deal.'"
March 21 - Wall Street Journal (David Enrich, Liz Rappaport and Liam Pleven): "Main Street is about to feel another tremor from Wall Street. CIT Group Inc. said Thursday that its normal sources of funding have dried up because of the credit crisis, forcing the... company to draw down its entire $7.3 billion line of backup credit. That could mean trouble for commercial borrowers, since CIT will shrink its lending operations and sell assets in order to conserve cash. 'We recognize that, given the current market environment, we need to run a smaller company,' said Jeffrey Peek, CIT's chief executive. While it isn't a bank, CIT is a major lender that specializes in providing financing to companies of all sizes that often can't get all the capital they want from traditional banks. With customers in more than 30 industries and 50 countries, CIT had managed assets of $83.2bn as of Dec. 31... Since CIT can't fund its operations with bank deposits, it typically relies on a combination of financing including short-term borrowing known as commercial paper as well as asset backed markets and the corporate bond market."
March 19 - Bloomberg (Shannon D. Harrington): "CIT Group Inc., the largest independent commercial finance company in the U.S., may need to tap $7.3 billion in unsecured bank lines because its access to traditional debt markets has become 'materially constrained,' Fitch Ratings said..."
March 19 - Bloomberg (Jody Shenn): "Merrill Lynch & Co. sued XL Capital Assurance Inc. to force the bond insurer to honor $3.1 billion of guarantees on collateralized debt obligations as the securities firm attempts to avoid more writedowns of mortgage-backed debt. 'We filed suit to make clear that XL Capital Assurance Inc. is required to meet its contractual obligations,' Mark Herr, a spokesman for...Merrill, said... 'Apparently in light of the current dramatic downturn and deterioration in the credit markets, defendants are having 'sellers' remorse,' Merrill said..."
March 19 - Dow Jones (Laura Mandaro): "Instead of waiting for the U.S. government to fix the nearly defunct market for auction-rate securities, counties, states and health authorities seeking to raise money are increasingly turning to money-market funds to get cash. As a result, the once little-known market for auction-rate securities, propelled into the headlines by turmoil in financial markets, is witnessing a mass flight of municipal debt to other sources of funding... The auction-rate market 'is broken, it's dead, it's going away,' said Joe Lynagh, portfolio manager for five municipal money-market funds at T. Rowe Price Group..."
March 19 - Dow Jones (Min Zeng): "There is no sigh of relief in short-term funding markets Wednesday as concerns over the credit-market crunch and rising cash demand ahead of the quarter-end pushed up borrowing costs in the U.S. and Europe. After a brief euphoria Tuesday following the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut and better-than-expected broker earnings, jitter returned to markets overnight amid worries about hedge fund troubles and concerns over the health of the U.K. banking system. Credit concerns, coupled with surging cash demand among companies to protect their balance sheets leading into the quarter end and the Easter Holiday Friday, pushed term London interbank offered rates in dollar, euro and pound higher."
March 19 - Bloomberg (Katherine Burton and Saijel Kishan): "JWM Partners LLC, the investment firm run by ex-Long-Term Capital Management LP chief John Meriwether, lost 24% in its $1 billion fixed-income hedge fund this year through March 14... Meriwether's Relative Value Opportunity fund was hurt as bond managers such as Peloton Partners LLP and Carlyle Capital Corp. were forced to sell securities to meet margin calls..."
March 19 - Dow Jones (Margot Patrick): "Sharp moves in Japanese bonds this month have wiped more than $725 million off a $2.9 billion fixed-income hedge fund run by Endeavour Capital LLP, heightening concerns about how hedge funds are faring in increasingly volatile interest-rate markets. Endeavour Capital Chief Executive Paul Matthews said the Endeavour Fund lost money as the spread between shorter- and longer-dated Japanese government bond yields rose... 'The move we've seen is far more than anything that happened in the past in these instruments,' Matthews told Dow Jones... 'It's one thing to have the market move against you but the lack of liquidity, to not be able to get out of government bonds, is very unusual,' he added. London-based Endeavour closed out nearly all of its Japanese bond positions over the past several days, and has reduced its use of borrowed money on government bond trades to 12.5 times investor capital from around 18 times."
March 20 - Dow Jones (Alistair Barr): "Hedge funds moving from Bear Stearns Cos. to rival prime brokers may be facing tougher borrowing requirements as investment banks cut back on the amount of money they are willing to lend to some managers in the $2 trillion business."
March 19 - Bloomberg (Yalman Onaran and Christine Harper): "Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the two biggest U.S. securities firms, said they've used a lending facility created by the Federal Reserve to ease concerns that Wall Street faced a cash shortage. 'We have tested the window because we want to remove the stigma from the window,' Morgan Stanley CFO Colm Kelleher said... 'It's meant to be there for normal business. It's not meant to be there as a last-recourse thing.'"
March 20 - Dow Jones (Lavonne Kuykendall and Chad Bray): "Bond insurers have reassured investors for months that ironclad protections they built into insurance policies for derivatives gave them unique controls over the complex securities they guaranteed. Now those contract clauses may help in an unexpected way: by giving bond insurers a way out of some of the most exposed deals. Bond insurer Security Capital Assurance says that Merrill Lynch & Co. signed seven credit default swap contracts with Security Capital subsidiary XL Capital Assurance Inc. that gave the bond insurer ultimate control of underlying collateralized debt obligations totaling $3.1 billion in face value. Merrill then violated the agreement, SCA says, by making side deals giving the same control to rival insurer MBIA Inc. The issue plays into what bond insurers have long called one of the strengths of the financial guarantees they write on investment bank securities: the powers they can exercise when something goes wrong."
March 20 - Reuters: "Security Capital Assurance said... it had severed seven credit guarantee contracts with a Merrill Lynch unit because Merrill had given important rights promised to it under the contracts to at least one other party. Merrill Lynch is suing the XL Capital Assurance unit of Security Capital to force the insurer to make good on the agreements. Security Capital said XL Capital was promised control rights on the $3.1 billion of portfolios it had guaranteed for Merrill Lynch International, but Merrill Lynch had given those same rights to one or more third parties. 'The decision to terminate the Merrill Lynch International contracts was not made lightly,' Security Capital said. By terminating the contracts, Security Capital is hoping to get out from under an obligation that could cost it hundreds of millions of dollars. But ending the contracts could force Merrill Lynch to write down billions of dollars of exposure."
March 20 - Bloomberg (Oliver Suess): "IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, the first German casualty of the collapse of the U.S. subprime- mortgage market, forecast a wider loss and said it will need a fourth government bailout. IKB fell to the lowest in at least 11 years... KfW Group, the state-owned development bank that controls IKB, will inject another 450 million euros to shore up the lender."
March 20 - Bloomberg (John Glover): "The cost of protecting the bonds of Kaupthing Bank hf, Landsbanki Islands hf and Glitnir Banki hf against default soared to records this week amid concern Iceland's three largest banks may be unable to fund themselves. Credit-default swaps on Kaupthing, Iceland's biggest bank, rose 22 bps to 855... The cost of the contracts is about seven times more than the average for banks in Europe...
March 19 - International Herald Tribune (Sandra Hernandez): "The Australian property investor Rubicon Japan Trust warned...that it would not be able to meet an expected margin call... Joining a growing list of Australian companies facing margin calls as nervous banks call in their loans amid a deepening credit crisis, Rubicon said it might be unable to pay its debts if it cannot reach an agreement on the margin call of 30 million Australian dollars, or $28 million, with National Australia Bank, or NAB."