Der USA Bären-Thread

www.marketwatch.com/story/...ad-ftse-100-higher-after-data-2013-01-02

Chinas PMI deutet auf "Expansion", also schießen in London die Minen- und Rohstoffaktien hoch.

Wie es um die Wirtschaftslage in China WIRKLICH aussieht (extreme Manipulation, staatliche Lügen), zeigt # 306/307

However, the fine is 16 trillion Dollars!

A.L.

fine²

1. n (JUR) Geldstrafe f; (for less serious  offences) Geldbuße or -strafe f; (driving) Bußgeld nt; (for minor  traffic offences) (gebührenpflichtige) Verwarnung
 

der Mississippi ist kurz davor nicht merh schiffbar zu sein. Mehr Wasser könnte aus dem Missouri eingeleitet werden, aber das soll eigentlich für den Sommer zu Bewässerungszwecken aufgestaut werden.

einen guten Riecher. Man konnte seine Prognosen für die Auto-Branche gut auf die gesamte Wirtschaft hochrechnen. Oder glaubt jemand, daß es wirtschaftlich aufwährts geht mit einem am Boden liegenden Automarkt ?

www.mmnews.de/index.php/wirtschaft/11681-2013-auto-katastrophe

nun gut, er ist ja der Vorsitzende des Autoverbandes... sollte sich also auskennen ;-)) Aber im Ernst, ich habe auf meiner Watchlist gerade die Autozulieferer wie die Continental bspw., die einen enormen Schub in 2012 bekommen haben. Da dürfte so langsam das Ende der Fahnenstange erreicht worden sein. Eigentlich warte ich noch auf das Erreichen der psychologisch wichtigen Rundmarke von €90, um eine Short-Position zu eröffnen. Ich denke, ich komme da auch bald rein ;-)

The entire Keynesian Project has numerous blindspots. When reality inconveniently fails to meet Keynesian expectations, reality is ignored or massaged to suit the Keynesian Cargo Cult's belief system.

For example, the Grand Poo-Bah of the Keynesian Cargo Cult, Paul Krugman, loves to repeat that massive fiscal-stimulus deficits haven't raised interest rates, confounding doomsdayers, but he never mentions the Federal Reserve's role in this magic: what would interest rates be if the Fed wasn't buying hundreds of billions of dollars of Treasury bonds every year?

The honest position would for Keynesians to state that the Central Bank's role is to print money to enable unlimited, fiscally reckless spending by the Central State. But dishonesty is a modest Keynesian fault compared to the blindspots in their core policies.

Here is a partial list of Keynesian blindspots:

1. The Keynesian Model no longer works; it is counter-productive and destructive.

2. Markets that have been managed by the Central State/Central Banks are broken and no longer function in pricing risk and assets.

3. Keynesians are incapable of recognizing opportunity cost: the money they borrow and squander on sinkholes is no longer available for productive uses.

4. Keynesians are blind to the difference between an investment that yields a positive return and a sinkhole that sucks scarce capital away from productive uses.

5. Keynesians are incapable of recognizing institutionalized moral hazard is the inevitable consequence of flooding the financial sector with cheap, easy money.

6. Keynesians are blind to the fact that cheap, easy money at near-zero rates destroys the premium on real capital (saved cash), fatally distorting the economy and finance.

7. The Keynesians are blind to the eventual consequences of higher interest rates on rapidly rising sovereign debt. What's left of the private market for bonds eventually recognizes that Central Planning has pushed the risk of default or currency depreciation much higher. That will push interest rates higher, unless the central Bank buys essentially all newly issued Treasury debt.

Regardless of who buys the debt, increasing sums of national income are diverted to pay interest on debt taken on to fund marginal-return Bridges to Nowhere, starving the State and economy of income and investment capital. Default is the only possible endgame when debt rises faster than income and productivity.

8. Keynesians are blind to diminishing returns: ever-higher debt produces ever-smaller returns.

I have often identified Keynesian economists and the Federal Reserve as cargo cults.

After the U.S. won World War II in the Pacific Theater, its forces left huge stockpiles of goods behind on remote South Pacific islands because it wasn’t worth taking it all back to America.

After the Americans left, some islanders, nostalgic for the seemingly endless fleet of ships loaded with technological goodies, started Cargo Cults that believed magical rituals and incantations would bring the ships of “free” wealth back. Some mimicked technology by painting radio dials on rocks and using the phantom radio to “call back” the free-prosperity ships.

The Keynesians are like deluded members of a farcical Cargo Cult. They ignore the reality of debt, rising interest payments and the resulting debt-serfdom in their belief that money spent indiscriminately on friction, fraud, speculation and malinvestment will magically call back the fleet of rapid growth.

To the Keynesian, a Bridge to Nowhere is equally worthy of borrowed money as a high-tech factory. They are unable to distinguish between sterile sand and fertilizer, and unable to grasp that ever-rising debt leaves America a nation of wealthy banks and increasingly impoverished debt-serfs.

The Cargo Cult faithful do not understand diminishing returns: at some point, the interest on skyrocketing debt drains income and capital from potentially productive investments to pay for previous unproductive spending on fraud, friction and malinvestments, starving the economy of productive investment.

"Free money" creates moral hazard, which means that those who can borrow money for almost nothing and never have to pay it back act entirely differently from those paying market rates for money and backing their loan with real collateral that is at risk.

(Auslassung, Vergleiche mit der Wirtschaft des 2. Weltkriegs..)

Depression-era calls to bulldoze homes to be rebuilt and destroy grain so it could be regrown were rightly dismissed as malinvestment on a vast scale. But war is more or less an equivalent malinvestment on a grand scale. Hundreds of ships were built and then sunk, thousands of aircraft were built and then shot down or lost, and monumental mountains of provisions and supplies were manufactured and then either consumed or lost to enemy submarines, bad weather, rot and a host of other causes.

(2. Auslassung, immer noch 2. Weltkrieg)

....Though the 1930s Central Planning extend-and-pretend policies did not write off the overhang of debt that had depressed the economy and destroyed the market's ability to properly price risk and assets, this gargantuan pool of private capital simply overwhelmed the remaining debt overhang.

Third, trust in the system was restored: the Federal government had effectively "won the war" by printing money and drawing upon the nation's vast surplus of energy and labor, and the manufacturing and financial sectors had been brought to heel by the extraordinary demands of the war and by legislation that had responded to financial fraud and over-reach of the late 1920s.

Keynesians are blind to the fact that the root of "capitalism" is capital. Capitalism requires two fundamentals--capital to invest and open markets for goods and services that transparently price risk, assets, hedges and goods.

Note that debt, and fiscal and monetary intervention are not essential to capitalism. Indeed, if we explore the roots of modern capitalism in the 14th and 15th centuries, we find that commercial credit and hedges were the key ingredients of success, not debt. Lacking sufficient coinage to handle the rising volume of trade, merchants settled accounts at the great trading fairs in Europe.

Long, risky trade voyages were hedged with the equivalent of options and limited stock companies that distributed risk for a price. Leverage was limited by the transparency and appetite for risk.

Compare that with Bernanke's Keynesian policies, all of which severely punish savers (i.e. the accumulation of capital) and reward leverage and debt. By lowering interest rates to zero, Bernanke has imposed the opposite of the World War II experience of forced savings--he has made cash into trash and pushed everyone into risk assets.

By making credit dirt-cheap and backstopping financial-sector losses (i.e. institutionalizing moral hazard), Bernanke has destroyed the market's ability to discipline malinvestment and openly price risk and assets.

...Keynesian policy is to punish capital accumulation and reward leveraged debt expansion. Rather than enforce the market's discipline and transparent pricing of risk, debt and assets, Keynesians have explicitly set out to re-inflate destructive, massively unproductive credit bubbles.

This is why the Central Planning Keynesian policies has failed so completely, and why they will continue to fail. The Keynesians are not engaged in capitalism, they are engaged in the destruction of capital, productive investment and the open pricing of risk, debt and assets. The markets are not allowed to price risk, capital and assets, so the economy is crippled. The Keynesian model is a Cargo Cult, mired in a distant, romanticized past where Central Planning, intervention and manipulation were solutions rather than the root of the economy's fatal disease.

charleshughsmith.blogspot.de/2013/01/...spots-of-clueless.html


Zerohedge legt noch einen drauf:

For those bored with watching how much higher Getco and Citadel's algos can take the market on a resolution that is adverse for the US economy, that cuts consumer spending and cash flow, that does not address the real issue: government drunken sailor spending, and that means America will now labor for the next two months without being able to incur one additional dollar in net debt courtesy of breaching the debt ceiling on the last day of 2012 - in other words your typical kick-the-can-for-two-more-months non deal, we have good news: Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer has released a compilation of his best articles from the past year for free to anyone who still cares about what actually may be happening in the US economy, besides the obvious - endless fiscal and monetary stimuli from both the Fed and Congress, which like, any lunch, are never free, even if the final invoice may take a while to arrive....

www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-02/...r-free-best-articles-compilation


Hier der Link zu Grant's PDF:
www.grantspub.com/UserFiles/File/Giro30_WINTER12.pdf

zu den günstigeren Steuertarifen des letzten Jahres unter den Bonzen aufgeteilt:

www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/...-65-million-in-stock-awards.html

Die SNB hat mit Euro-Shortspekulationen, insbesondere Shorts in EUR/JPY, im letzten Quartal 16 Mrd. verloren, ein Drittel ihres Gesamtkapitals von 50 Mrd. In nur drei Monaten!

Dies war wohl auch einer der "Motoren" im jüngsten Euro-Shortsqueeze, inkl. EUR/USD.

www.businessinsider.com/swiss-national-bank-whacked-by-euryen-2013-1

Adding to the carnage was a monster sized bet short EURUSD. Last reported, this mega-position was $220B short! It’s possible that this number is now close to one-quarter trillion. It was a good Q for the EURUSD, and that means a bad Q for the fund. The 6+ big figure move up in the Euro versus the dollar translates into a paper loss of a staggering $11b!

All in, the losses from FX come to $16.5B. The fund has reserves of about $50b, so the quarterly swing is not a crisis, but it’s an eye-opener. 30+% of those reserves went out the window in one Q. Wow!

The fund in question has a strong capital base and loyal investors. But the management will have to explain to those investors how it managed to lose such a large percentage of its “cushion” in such a short period of time. Those investors will, no doubt, ask the very pertinent question: “Why is the fund making such big FX bets?”

Management is also going to have to address the issue of leverage – this fund is now running at 10 to 1. The high level of leverage, and the mega billions involved (much of which is tied up in derivatives), makes this fund a high risk/return player. Investors will have to ask themselves, “Do we still want to be on this roller coaster?”

So who is it that is running such a big FX book? And who are the investors that are on such a wild ride?

That would be the Swiss National Bank. The “investors” are the Swiss people.

www.businessinsider.com/...cked-by-euryen-2013-1#ixzz2GqEjwNop

PRIMARY, they are engaged in protecting an outdated world order. Therefore they will misuse every available option of modern financial warfare as long as possible. In a longterm view such behavior will -as a sideeffect- destroy the dollarcapitalism. But to loose perhaps the dollar in 10 Years or more and afterwards the leadership role is a way better option then loosing the leadership role in the world order right now."

Es geht um nichts weniger als die Aufrechterhaltung der Weltordnung und die Mittel des QE sind noch längst nicht ausgereizt und die USA können noch sehr lange so weitermachen wie bisher, solange sie es mit der Inflationierung nicht grob übertreiben.
Wer weiß, welche neuen Tricks gerade erdacht werden.

Daher schließe ich auch für 2013 eher auf weiter steigende Kurse.
ATH-Alarm.
20% Kursverlust mag in 2013 kommen, aber dann von einem deutlich höheren Level aus, so dass wir auch nach dem Sturz noch über dem jetzigen Level stehn.

Man darf darüber hinaus nicht vergessen, dass wir momentan nominal immer noch nur wenige Prozentpunkte über dem Stand von 1999 notieren.
Man rechne da mal die Inflation raus... von Blasenbildung keine Spur!

Zum Schluss noch ein Video aus dem Land der "kleinen Geister":
In welchem Land gabs seit 200 Jahren keine Staatspleite und warum?
Für die Ungeduldigen, ab 02:05.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W26stVqw-QQ

 es freut mich doch sehr dass Du wiederauferstanden bist, ich habe Dich an Deiner eisernen Schnauze wiedererkannt, lebe bitte noch sehr lange weiter  ;-)

DER ERSTE HANDELSTAG BRINGT AUCH DEN ERSTEN MINI-FLASH-CRASH

Diesmal in der Aktie von GVA an der NASDAQ, der Spuk war jedoch sofort vorüber...

www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-02/...aq-after-mini-flash-crash

NEUER US-SCHULDENREKORD BEI 16.432.730.050569,12 DOLLAR

Da wurde gar kein Fiscal Cliff umschifft! Die Schuldenquote nun bei 103 Prozent. Aua!

www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-02/...273005056912-debt-gdp-103

... von Sell-side ANALysten, die die Anleger-Schafe noch laut zum Einstieg animieren, während die hauseigenen Fonggs schon längst ihre Bestände abbauen ... bei diesem scam ganz vorne dabei wieder mal ... der Goldmann

The bipolar mood swing over the short-term band aid Fiscal Cliff non-solution may be over, and finally the market, which yesterday saw the official breach of the debt ceiling on the final day of 2012 on paper, may be starting to look forward 58 days to that day in February, (or more likely March), when the real catalyst as we have said all along- the increase of the US debt ceiling by another $2.4 trillion - has to be resolved. Futures are down a modest 5 points even as the EURUSD slide continues now that year end window dressing repatriation means European banks no longer need to show the currency on their books - at some point the EURUSD-ES correlation algos will kick in but not yet. Keep in mind that in the summer of 2011 the debt ceiling negotiations started some two months before the D-Day in early August, this time around politicians, who have learned nothing, will likely leave all debate until the very last moment once again, as the democrats assume the GOP will fold like a cheap lawn chair once again, even as the tensions at the GOP to do just the opposite hit a fever pitch. Which is why not even Goldman Sachs, as confirmed in a note by Alec Philips last night (coming shortly), cares to predict what (or when) the "debt ceiling 2013" outcome will be....

www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-03/new-year-euphoria-fading

EUR/USD steht zurzeit bei 1,31 (fast "lotrecht" von 1,33 kommend). Damit wurde eine wichtige Chartmarke unterschritten, auf die ich gestern im Quo vadis Ultimate hingewiesen hatte:

www.ariva.de/forum/QV-ultimate-unlimited-474678?page=32#jump14921897

1,31 ist zugleich das 50 % RT des Upmoves im Gefolge der last-minute Fiscal-Cliff-Einigung, so dass jetzt ein Abpraller nach oben denkbar wäre). Man sollte EUR/USD wegen der ES-Korrelation aufmerksam beobachten: Schwäche in%2

Vom Pimco-Boss noch mal gut auf den Punkt gebracht.

Die Zentralbanken der Welt haben seit Krisenbeginn 2008 sage und schreibe 6 Billionen zusätzliche Dollars gedruckt - das entspricht Chinas BIP - , um das private Deleveraging aufzufangen (Chart unten). Die Gesamtsumme an ungedeckter Zentralbank-Überziehung stieg damit auf weltweit fast 15 Billionen Dollar (= BIP der USA).

www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/...othin-Writing-Checks-for-Free.aspx

It was Milton Friedman, not Ben Bernanke, who first made reference to dropping money from helicopters in order to prevent deflation. Bernanke"s now famous "helicopter speech" in 2002, however, was no less enthusiastically supportive of the concept. In it, he boldly previewed the almost unimaginable policy solutions that would follow the black swan financial meltdown in 2008: policy rates at zero for an extended period of time; expanding the menu of assets that the Fed buys beyond Treasuries; and of course quantitative easing purchases of an almost unlimited amount should they be needed. These weren"t Bernanke innovations – nor was the term QE. Many of them had been applied by policy authorities in the late 1930s and "40s as well as Japan in recent years. Yet the then Fed Governor"s rather blatant support of monetary policy to come should have been a signal to investors that he would be willing to pilot a helicopter should the takeoff be necessary. "Like gold," he said, "U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost."

Mr. Bernanke never provided additional clarity as to what he meant by "no cost." Perhaps he was referring to zero-bound interest rates, although at the time in 2002, 10-year Treasuries were at 4%. Or perhaps he knew something that American citizens, their political representatives, and almost all investors still don"t know: that quantitative easing – the purchase of Treasury and Agency mortgage obligations from the private sector – IS essentially costless in a number of ways. That might strike almost all of us as rather incredible – writing checks for free – but that in effect is what a central bank does. Yet if ordinary citizens and corporations can"t overdraft their accounts without criminal liability, how can the Fed or the European Central Bank or any central bank get away with printing "electronic money" and distributing it via helicopter flyovers in the trillions and trillions of dollars?

Well, the answer is sort of complicated but then it"s sort of simple: They just make it up. When the Fed now writes $85 billion of checks to buy Treasuries and mortgages every month, they really have nothing in the "bank" to back them. Supposedly they own a few billion dollars of "gold certificates" that represent a fairy-tale claim on Ft. Knox"s secret stash, but there"s essentially nothing there but trust. When a primary dealer such as J.P. Morgan or Bank of America sells its Treasuries to the Fed, it gets a "credit" in its account with the Fed, known as "reserves." It can spend those reserves for something else, but then another bank gets a credit for its reserves and so on and so on. The Fed has told its member banks "Trust me, we will always honor your reserves," and so the banks do, and corporations and ordinary citizens trust the banks, and "the beat goes on," as Sonny and Cher sang. $54 trillion of credit in the U.S. financial system based upon trusting a central bank with nothing in the vault to back it up. Amazing!

But the story doesn"t end here. What I have just described is a rather routine textbook explanation of how central and fractional reserve banking works its productive yet potentially destructive magic. What Governor Bernanke may have been referring to with his "essentially free" comment was the fact that the Fed and other central banks such as the Bank of England (BOE) actually rebate the interest they earn on the Treasuries and Gilts that they buy. They give the interest back to the government, and in so doing, the Treasury issues debt for free. Theoretically it"s the profits of the Fed that are returned to the Treasury, but the profits are the interest on the $2.5 trillion worth of Treasuries and mortgages that they have purchased from the market. The current annual remit amounts to nearly $100 billion, an amount that permits the Treasury to reduce its deficit by a like amount. When the Fed buys $1 trillion worth of Treasuries and mortgages annually, as it is now doing, it effectively is financing 80% of the deficit for free.

The BOE and other central banks work in a similar fashion...... As shown in Chart 1, the world"s six largest central banks have collectively issued six trillion dollars" worth of checks since the beginning of 2009 in order to stem private sector delevering. Treasury credit is being backed with central bank credit with the interest then remitted to its issuer. Should interest rates rise and losses accrue to the Fed"s portfolio, they record it as an accounting liability owed to the Treasury, which need never be paid back. This is about as good as it can get folks. Money for nothing. Debt for free.... (lange Auslassung).


"Money for nothing" (Chart):

Langläufer wie US-30-jährige sollten tunlichst aus dem Depot genommen werden.

Investment conclusions

Investors should be alert to the longterm inflationary thrust of such check writing. While they are not likely to breathe fire in 2013, the inflationary dragons lurk in the “out” years towards which long-term bond yields are measured. You should avoid them and confine your maturities and bond durations to short/intermediate targets supported by Fed policies. In addition, be aware of PIMCO’s continued concerns about the increasing ineffectiveness of quantitative easing with regards to the real economy. Zero-bound interest rates, QE maneuvering, and “essentially costless” check writing destroy financial business models and stunt investment decisions which offer increasingly lower ROIs and ROEs. Purchases of “paper” shares as opposed to investments in tangible productive investment assets become the likely preferred corporate choice. Those purchases may be initially supportive of stock prices but ultimately constraining of true wealth creation and real economic growth. At some future point, risk assets – stocks, corporate and high yield bonds – must recognize the difference. Bernanke’s dreams of economic revival, which would then lead to the day that investors can earn higher returns, may be an unattainable theoretical hope, in contrast to a future reality. Japan we are not, nor is Euroland or the U.K. – just yet. But “costless” check writing does indeed have a cost and checks cannot perpetually be written for free.

(Link: letztes Posting)

Die ADP-Zahlen waren bislang fast immer falsch. So wurden in der Meldung unten die Zahlen für Nov. um -30.000 nach unten korrigiert.

Sagt insofern wenig für die maßgeblichen Zahlen der US-Arbeitsbehörde am Freitag - oft allen die BLS-Zahlen dann sogar schlechter als erwartet aus (Hütchenspieler brauchen "Bewegung").

---

ADP: U.S. adds 215K private-sector jobs in Dec.
By Ruth Mantell

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. added 215,000 private-sector jobs in December, ADP estimated Thursday, led by a gain of 187,000 services jobs. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a gain of 149,000 private-sector jobs. The gain in November was revised to 148,000 from a prior estimate of 118,000. Some analysts use ADP's data to provide guidance on the U.S. Department of Labor's employment report, which is due Friday and covers private-sector and government jobs. However, economists are wary of placing too much importance on ADP's December reading given past misses, though ADP recently changed its methodology. Currently, analysts expect the government to report that nonfarm employment rose 153,000 in December, compared with a gain of 146,000 in November.

von der Fiskalklippe gesprungen zu sein:

The Cold Hard Truth About the Fiscal Cliff Deal
January 3, 2013
By Martin Hutchinson, Global Investing Strategist, Money Morning

In the end, a last-minute deal emerged. Just like that, the fiscal cliff crisis was averted.

In the waning hours of New Year's Day, Congress voted to avoid a large package of tax increases, along with some modest spending cuts.

Not surprisingly, the markets just loved it. The Dow soared over 200 points on the open and never looked back.  

But first, let's call this deal what it is: a late-day compromise that failed to address serious fiscal issues.

In the end, the agreement reached on Tuesday night will only reduce the deficit by about $60 billion annually over the next 10 years.  

That's less than 10% of the total projected deficits, which means well before 2020 we will likely have a real crisis on our hands.

But the real story in this mess is this: the cold hard truth is that going over the cliff would have actually been beneficial.  And despite the promises of Keynesian economists, the deal that emerged was not an improvement.

In reality, the predictions of doom that surrounded the fiscal cliff were made to achieve a political goal, and we should have ignored them.

Here's why...

Why We Should've Jumped Off the Fiscal Cliff :

www.marketwatch.com/story/...s-claims-rise-10000-to-372000-2013-01-03

Das passt nicht den ADP-Zahlen in # 344.

Deckt sich aber mit den Massenentlassungsankündigungen vieler US-Firmen Anfang Dez.

www.ariva.de/forum/...SA-Baeren-Thread-283343?page=4079#jumppos101986

Ich glaube kaum, dass diese Ankündigungen inzwischen widerrufen wurden.

melden, weil im Januar immer die Schönrechnungen des Birth-Death-Model aus dem vergangenen Jahr rückwirkend korrigiert werden. -850.000 gilt dann aber als statistischer Ausreißer ("outlier") und wird ignoriert. Das BLS wird dazu eine "bereinigte" Zahl von 135.000 nennen.

Vielleicht gibt ADP deshalb betont hohe Zahlen vor. Man kann wegen der o. g. Mätchen des BLS im Januar nicht exakt prüfen, was an den AGP-Zahlen "dran" ist.

For the past four years, the nation"s political leaders and bankers have made enormous—in some cases unprecedented—efforts to save the financial industry, clean up the banks, and reform regulation in order to restore trust and confidence in the American financial system. This hasn"t worked. Banks today are bigger and more opaque than ever, and they continue to behave in many of the same ways they did before the crash.

Consider JPMorgan"s widely scrutinized trading loss last year. Before the episode, investors considered JPMorgan one of the safest and best-managed corporations in America. Jamie Dimon, the firm"s charismatic CEO, had kept his institution upright throughout the financial crisis, and by early 2012, it appeared as stable and healthy as ever.

One reason was that the firm"s huge commercial bank—the unit responsible for the old-line business of lending—looked safe, sound, and solidly profitable. But then, in May, JPMorgan announced the financial equivalent of sudden cardiac arrest: a stunning loss initially estimated at $2 billion and later revised to $6 billion. It may yet grow larger; as of this writing, investigators are still struggling to comprehend the bank"s condition.

The loss emanated from a little-known corner of the bank called the Chief Investment Office. This unit had been considered boring and unremarkable; it was designed to reduce the bank"s risks and manage its spare cash. According to JPMorgan, the division invested in conservative, low-risk securities, such as U.S. government bonds. And the bank reported that in 95 percent of likely scenarios, the maximum amount...

www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/01/...americas-banks/309196


Seit Okt. 2011 hat der US-Banken-Index (BKX) um über 50 % zugelegt:

AL - Deine 10-15 letzten Postings zeigen mir vor allem Eines: Es wird, koste es was es wolle, an der Aufrechterhaltung der Preisblasen auf den Kapitalmärkten weiter festgehalten. Es mag sein, dass die FUndamentals eine derartig hoher Bewertung in den meisten Assetklassen nicht gerechtfertigen, doch die Paranoia der Zentralbanken, Lügenpotenzial der Politiker und Wirtschaftsakteure zielt ganz klar in die Richtung, dass das Preisniveau hoch bleibt.
Konkret: Crash auf Aktienmärkten wird nicht erlaubt werden, also kommt er auch nicht. Ich gehe davon aus, dass wir noch eine Weile steigende Aktienkurse sehen werden und ein starkes erstes Quartal 2013 erleben werden. Sich dagegen zu stellen aktuell ist auch eine Zurverfügungstellung des eigenen Geldes an die Finanzinstitutionen - nicht nur zinslos, sondern auch ohne Rückzahlungsanspruch!