Der USA Bären-Thread

Hier ein Langzeit-Chart von EUR/JPY - der übrigens auch als Vorlaufindikator für die globalen Aktienmärkte gilt.

Nach unablässigem Anstieg über sieben Jahre, der EUR/JPY bis 170 hievte, fiel 2008 "der Boden raus". Die aktuelle Erholung dürfte sich mMn als Dead Cat Bounce entpuppen. Dieser Ansicht ist auch der in der FAZ (# 48294) zitierte Paribas-Analyst (vermutlich Redeker). Redeker ging in anderen Artikeln auch von kommender Dollar-Stärke aus (parallel mit Kursrückgängen an den Aktienbörsen - ähnlich wie Ende 2008). Dies drückt über die Crosses zusätzlich auf EUR/JPY. Mich würde nicht wundern, wenn EUR/JPY noch einmal in die Gegend um das 2001-Tiefs fiele. Dann hätten wir vermutlich auch DAX 2500 /DOW 5000.

Noch stärker "indiziert" AUD/JPY diese Entwicklung (siehe mein gestriges Posting dazu).

AL,
"Dann ist aber ein KGV von 18 nicht mehr zu rechtfertigen, das wir im Schnitt der letzten 10 Jahre hatten. Das KGV hängt auch von dem zu erwartenden zukünftigen Wachstum ab"
>>> leider hängt das 'faire' KGV auch ganz erheblich von langjährigen Modeschwankungen ab, ähnlich wie Haar- und Rocklänge ;o)  Und natürlich vom Zinsniveau ... derlei Betrachtungen helfen uns daher leider nur im gaaaanz langfristigen Horizont, und zumindest für die Shortseite sind derlei langfristige Strategien sehr schwer umsetzbar.

nopanic:
"50% der bevölkerung daran glauben,dassdas schlimmste vorüber ist,dann müssten ja in den nächsten tagen die anschlusskäufer nur so aus dem boden sprießen"
>>> das tun sich schon in ganz spezieller Weise:
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Deutsche Bank wird von Anlegern mit Geld überschüttet

   FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Für die Deutsche Bank scheint die Finanzkrise so gut wie abgehakt. Mit der erfolgreichen Ausgabe einer risikoreichen Nachrang-Anleihe kehrte am Mittwoch ein weiteres Stück Normalität zurück. Die Anleger überschütteten den heimischen Branchenprimus regelrecht mit Geld. Das kann er für die geplante Übernahme von Sal. Oppenheim und Postbank  gut gebrauchen. "Die Nachfrage ist sehr groß gewesen", sagte ein Sprecher am Mittwoch in Frankfurt. Dem Kernkapital von zuletzt 32,5 Milliarden Euro fließen nun weitere 1,25 Milliarden Euro zu. Die Anleger hatten den Frankfurtern sogar drei Milliarden Euro angedient (...)
www.finanzen.net/nachricht/...n_mit_Geld_ueberschuettet_934325
___________________________________

also, da gehört schon eine echt tiefgehende "crisis is over" Überzeugung dazu, eine Tier-1-Nachranganleihe der DBK zu zeichnen. Wer das tut, schließt ein Scheitern der DBK in den nächsten paar Jahren ja implizit kategorisch aus. Also, ICH habe nicht gezeichnet (und wahrscheinlich kann man das als Privater auch gar nicht)

@Falk Kuebler:
... nein, natürlich nicht schließen, nicht solange ich short bin  ;o)

und abschließend noch der neue "Fricke":
*********************************************
Ifo-Index - schlechte Zeit für Dauernörgler

Chronische Skeptiker haben es derzeit schwer: Fast täglich gibt es neue Meldungen über höhere Stimmungswerte und tatsächliche Aufträge in der Wirtschaft. Dazu passt auch der neue Index des Münchner Ifo-Instituts. Nach der Umfrage, die als zuverlässiger Frühindikator für die deutsche Gesamtkonjunktur gilt, ist das zwischenzeitlich eingebrochene Geschäftsklima nach mittlerweile fünf Monaten Aufholjagd wieder auf dem Niveau von Oktober 2008, vor dem Kollaps der Wintermonate. Fragt man die Unternehmen nach den absehbaren Geschäften der kommenden Monate, ist beim entsprechenden Index sogar der komplette Absturz seit Frühjahr 2008 wettgemacht. Und: es spricht immer mehr dafür, dass das keine Phantombesserung ist (...)
weiter unter:
www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/...r-Dauern%F6rgler/558399.html

schreibt Marketwatch

Das hatte ich gestern schon vermutet. Die Preis-Schere zwischen Öl- und Gas-Futures ist absurd groß (Faktor 26, normal sind 7).

 

erwarten eine längere Deflation und die Aktienspekulanten glauben das wäre gut (beim steigen).

Beim Fallen glauben die Anleihespekulanten die Wirtschaft würde sich erholen und die Aktienspekulanten glauben das wäre schlecht.

;o))

Market Commentary
Kass: Market Has Likely Topped
By Doug Kass
Street.com / RealMoney Silver Contributor
8/26/2009 8:41 AM EDT


Back in early March, there were signs of a second derivative U.S. economic recovery, the PMI in China had recorded two consecutive months of advances, domestic retail sales had stabilized, housing affordability was hitting multi-decade highs (with the cost of home ownership vs. renting returning back to 2000 levels), valuations were stretched to the downside and sentiment was negative to the extreme. These factors were ignored, however, and the S&P 500 sank to below 700.

To most investors, back in early March, the fear of being out was eclipsed by the fear of being in. Despite the developing less worse factors listed above, bulls were scarce to nonexistent in the face of persistent erosion in equity and credit prices.

It was at this point in time, on RealMoney Silver, in an appearance on CNBC's "Fast Money," on "Mad Money" and in multiple appearances on "The Kudlow Report," I confidently forecast the likelihood that a generational low had been reached.

I went on to audaciously predict that the S&P would rise to 1,050, a gain of nearly 400 points from the S&P low of 666 during the first week of March, by late summer/early fall. I even sketched a precision-like SPDRs (SPY) expectation chart that would reach approximately the 105 level (a 1,050 S&P equivalent) within about six months.

Yesterday the SPDRs peaked at 104.20, within spitting range of my intrepid March forecast of 105, and the S&P nearly touched 1040 in Tuesday's early morning trading.

Arguably, today investors face the polar opposite of conditions that existed only a few months ago, with economic optimism, improving valuations and positive sentiment.

To most investors, today the fear of being in has now been eclipsed by the fear of being out as the animal spirits are in full force. Bears are now scarce to nonexistent in the face of steady price gains in equity and credit prices.

As if the movie is now being shown in reverse, the bull is persistent, stock corrections are remarkably shallow, cash reserves at mutual funds have been depleted, and hedge funds hold their highest net long positions in many moons.

Stated simply, in the current bull market in complacency, optimism and a boisterous enthusiasm reigns.

As I have written on these pages, the investment debate has morphed in a dramatic fashion from concerns as to whether U.S. economy was entering The Great Depression II to whether the current domestic recovery will be self-sustaining.

The primary question to be asked is, Will the earnings cycle dominate the investment landscape and cause investors to overlook the chronic and secular challenges facing the world's economies, particularly as the public sector stimulus is eventually withdrawn and paid for and the economic consequences of the massive public sector intervention manifest themselves in the form of higher interest rates and marginal tax rates?

Most now have accepted the notion that due to the replenishment of historically low inventories, extraordinary fiscal/monetary stimulation and the productivity gains from draconian corporate cost-cutting, the earnings cycle is so strong that it will trump the consequences of policy. More accurately, most believe that they can get out of the market before the full effects of policy are felt.

I am less confident as a decade of hocus-pocus borrowing and lending and 35-to-1 leverage at almost every level in both private and public sectors cannot likely be relieved in the great debt unwind over the course of only 12 months.

It is important to emphasize that when I made my variant March call, I expected many of the conditions that now exist -- namely, a resurgence of economic and investment optimism during the summer to be followed by a multiyear period of weak investment returns. Specifically, I expected a mini production boom and an asset allocation away from bonds and into stocks to be embraced and heralded by investors, who would only be disappointed again in the fall as it becomes clear that a self-sustaining economic recovery is unlikely to develop.

My view remains that it is different this time. Again (now for emphasis), the typical self-sustaining economic recovery of the past will not be repeated in the immediate future for 10 important reasons that will weigh on the economy and markets like the governor that controlled the speed of the Good Humor truck I drove when I was in my teens during the summer:

   1. Cost cuts are a corporate lifeline and so is fiscal stimulus, but both have a defined and limited life.

   2. Cost cuts (exacerbated by wage deflation) pose an enduring threat to the consumer, which is still the most significant contributor to domestic growth.

   3. The consumer entered the current downcycle exposed and levered to the hilt, and net worths have been damaged and will need to be repaired through higher savings and lower consumption.

   4. The credit aftershock will continue to haunt the economy.

   5. The effect of the Fed's monetarist experiment and its impact on investing and spending still remain uncertain.

   6. While the housing market has stabilized, its recovery will be muted, and there are few growth drivers to replace the important role taken by the real estate markets in the prior upturn.

   7. Commercial real estate has only begun to enter a cyclical downturn.

   8. While the public works component of public policy is a stimulant, the impact might be more muted than is generally recognized. There may be less than meets the eye as most of the current fiscal policy initiatives represent transfer payments that have a negative multiplier and create work disincentives.

   9. Municipalities have historically provided economic stability -- no more.

  10. Federal, state and local taxes will be rising as the deficit must eventually be funded, and high-tax health and energy bills also loom.

Just as I looked over the valley in March 2009 toward the positive effects of massive monetary/fiscal stimulation within the framework of a downside overshoot in valuations and remarkably negative sentiment, I now suggest another contrarian view is appropriate as I look over the visible green shoots of recovery toward a hostile assault of nonconventional factors that few business/credit cycles and even fewer investors have ever witnessed.

Yesterday, the OMB/CBO provided an exclamation point to the secular challenges that the domestic economy faces in forecasting an accumulated deficit of $9 trillion over the next decade (up $2 trillion from the previous forecast just two months ago), and public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected at an alarming 68% by 2019 (as compared to 54% today and only 33% in 2001). Thus far, the drop in the U.S. dollar (influenced, in part, by the mushrooming deficit) has been viewed favorably by the markets, but we must now be alert to a downside probe that becomes a threatening market factor. In other words, what has been viewed positively could shortly become negatively viewed.

A double-dip outcome in 2010 represents my baseline expectation. When the stimulus provided by the public sector is finally abandoned, it seems unlikely to be replaced by meaningful strength or participation by any specific component of the private sector, and the burgeoning deficit (described above) will ultimately require a reversal of policy, leading to higher interest rates, rising marginal tax rates and a lower U.S. dollar. My forecast assumes that the market's focus will shortly shift from the productivity gains that have been yielding better-than-expected bottom-line results toward these chronic and secular worries.

Even more important, my forecast of a 2010 market peak reflects that the aforementioned nontraditional influences (and the untoward policy ramifications) will, at the very least, yield a broad set of uncertain economic outcomes that (in consequence and in probability) tilt away from a self-sustaining economic scenario sometime in the following 12 months.

Stocks bottom during times of fear. With the benefit of hindsight, the March 2009 lows represented a dramatic overshoot to the downside.

Markets top during times of enthusiasm. I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year.

Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver, a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com.

At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were short SPY, although holdings can change at any time.

 

China May Impose Curbs on Overcapacity in Steel, Cement, Coal Industries

 

 

mehr nörgeln:  www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/...it-f%FCr-Dauern%F6rgler/558399.html

Also ihr Dauernörgler, geht endlich long!

... der Blogosphäre - auch und gerade die wirklich guten - posten aus Eitelkeit und versuchen das so unauffällig wie möglich zu tun:

"It was at this point in time, on RealMoney Silver, in an appearance on CNBC's "Fast Money," on "Mad Money" and in multiple appearances on "The Kudlow Report," I confidently forecast the likelihood that a generational low had been reached.

Bei den anderen amüsiere ich mich manchmal, manchmal geht mir das auf die Nerven.

Und nur um den anderen mal zu spiegeln, wie das so aussieht, mache ich es dann genauso... ;-))

 

P.S.: Wenigstens einmal will ich hier in der Sache widersprechen: von dem "generational low" bin ich noch nicht so ganz überzeugt...

Vereinigte Staaten

Zweifel am Preistief des Immobilienmarktes  

26. August 2009 Ungemein optimistisch interpretierte Daten hatten in den vergangenen Monaten zu einer der gewaltigsten Kurserholungsrally an den Börsen der Geschichte geführt. Manche gehen sogar davon aus, man stehe erst am Beginn eines weiteren Aufschwungs.

Auf der anderen Seite stehen Skeptiker, die gerade daran zweifeln. Sie verweisen darauf, dass die Kursentwicklung weniger von Fakten als vielmehr von einer optimistischen Stimmung getragen werde. Das wir überdeutlich am Beispiel des amerikanischen Verbrauchervertrauens, welches sich alleine aufgrund des überbordenden Optimismus erholt.

Kurzzeitige Preiserholungen selbst in einem andauernden Abwärtstrend nicht außergewöhnlich

Verdächtig sind auch die vielen Berichte, die erklären, am amerikanischen Immobilienmarkt sei nach Monaten mit starken Preisrückgängen der Boden gefunden worden. Dabei laufen die Preise für gewerbliche Immobilien weiter nach unten, während die verschiedenen Hauspreisindizes in bestimmten Regionen in jüngster Zeit allenfalls im Vergleich mit dem Vormonat etwas zulegen konnten.

 

Der Blick auf die Vergangenheit zeigt allerdings, dass kurzzeitige Preiserholungen selbst in einem andauernden Abwärtstrend nicht außergewöhnlich sind. Zudem sind sie mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit auf Sondereffekte zurückzuführen: Erstens fallen bald steuerliche Anreize zum Hauskauf weg. Das fällt zusammen mit einer gewissen „aufgestauten“ Grundnachfrage von Hausinteressenten mit begrenzten Einkommen, die in den vergangenen Jahren von den hohen Preisen vom Kauf abgeschreckt wurden. Solche Effekte können jedoch rasch verpuffen, zumal sie primär auf Häuser im niedrigen Preissegment beschränkt sind.

Weitere Preisrückgänge sind in Hochpreisregionen und -segmenten wahrscheinlich

Experten gehen in Regionen, in welchen die Preise in der Vergangenheit stark gestiegen waren, von weiteren Rückgängen aus. Dazu käme eine zunehmende Zahl von Zwangsversteigerungen, die zu zunehmendem Angebot führt. Jay Brinkmann, Chefökonom der amerikanischen Mortgage Bankers Associtation, erklärte am Dienstag, der Höhepunkt der Insolvenzwelle werde erst im Jahr 2010 erreicht werden. In der Vergangenheit fanden die Immobilienpreise in der Regel erst zu diesem Zeitpunkt ihren Boden.

Nicht nur die schwache finanzielle Verfassung vieler Hausbesitzer, das große Angebot - vor allem in der mittleren und der gehobenen Preisklasse - und der schwache Arbeitsmarkt raten zu zurückhaltenden Erwartungen, sondern auch die fallenden Mieten. In vielen Regionen sind sie rückläufig. Je geringer die mit einer Immobilie zu erzielenden Mieteinnahmen sind, desto weniger sind sie aus betriebswirtschaftlicher Sicht wert. Das heißt, auch von dieser Seite stehen die Immobilienpreise unter Druck.

Selbst wenn die Immobilienpreise ihren Boden gefunden hätten, so heißt das noch lange nicht, dass sie bald wieder rasant steigen und den Scheinboom der vergangenen Jahre wieder in Gang setzen würden. Immerhin dürften sich verbriefte Immobilienkredite, die jetzt wie Blei in den Bilanzen vieler Banken und Anleger liegen, nicht mehr so einfach verkaufen lassen wie in der Vergangenheit. Und wenn, so wäre das kein gutes Zeichen. Dieser Mechanismus stellte jedoch in den vergangenen Jahren ein wesentliches Element des Immobilien- und Konsumbooms dar.

www.faz.net/s/Rub48D1CBFB8D984684AF5F46CE28AC585D/...on~Sspezial.html

In late August's quiet trading, four troubled financial companies have accounted for a big piece of total volume on the New York Stock Exchange, in what one analyst referred to as a "dash for trash."

Citigroup, Bank of America, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have dominated trading recently as each has more than doubled in price from 2009 lows.

On Monday and on Tuesday morning, the four accounted for more than 40 percent of composite volume on the NYSE.

 

Some attributed this to bets on hoped-for economic improvement and ongoing government support, but others said the volume was due to speculation in popular names with low share prices.

"We've been referring to the heavy volume on these as the 'dash for trash,'" said Jon Najarian, the co-founder of Optionmonster.com in Chicago.

"No one is buying them based on their fundamentals, they're buying based on what the government might do to keep them alive," Najarian said.

All four companies were hit hard during Wall Street's meltdown in late 2008.

 

Fannie and Freddie were essentially nationalized by the government to prevent them from going under last fall.

Citigroup fell 1.9 percent to $4.73 on Tuesday, while Dow component Bank of America was up 1.5 percent to $17.61.

Freddie Mac was up 0.5 percent to $2.06 while Fannie Mae surged 7.7 percent to $1.83.

The recent action may be indicative of a short squeeze, as all four companies are prime targets of short sellers, who borrow shares and sell them in a bet that share prices will go down.

When momentum starts to turn, however, short-sellers are forced to cover their bets, increasing the buying pressure on those names.

But that may not last forever, and some believe the stocks are poised to fall once this flurry of activity dissipates.

"Intraday buyers are moving it, and if they decide to stop, and the buyers go away, the stocks are going to drop down like they did in March," said Joe Saluzzi, comanager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.

Big Volume

Tuesday, Citigroup was the volume leader on the NYSE with about 681.7 million shares, as of 1:15 p.m.

Citigroup was followed by Fannie with 557.2 million shares, Freddie with 188.4 million and Bank of America with 148.9 million.

To compare, the fifth most-traded stock was General Electric with 42.4 million shares traded. (GE is the parent company of CNBC).

The total listed volume for the NYSE was 3.858 billion, meaning that combined volume for the four represented more than 41 percent of the total day's volume. On Monday, those four companies also accounted for 43 percent of the volume.

The surge in volume among these names started around August 10. This was just after troubled insurer American International Group reported better-than-expected earnings, and amid signs of U.S. economic improvement. Bank of America would seem to be the outlier in this group.

The other three are all in single digits, and therefore targets of daytraders looking for quick trading profits.

"The volume in B of A is based on institutional ownership," Najarian said. "An institution can't trade Freddie or Fannie because they're too cheap. All you see in them is hedge funds and money players."

Najarian said institutions were buying into Bank of America in an attempt to play into the recovery thesis.

"People are having a hard time finding cheap stocks," Najarian said. "They're looking for the cheapest of the decent stocks. Clearly, in the institutional investor's mind, Bank of America is one of the stocks they're choosing."

 

Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes rose for a fourth straight month in July to set their fastest pace since last September, while the inventory of unsold homes fell to the lowest level in 16 years, a government report showed on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said sales rose 9.6 percent to a 433,000 annual pace, the highest in ten months, from an upwardly revised 395,000 in June.

That was the biggest monthly percentage gain since a matching increase in February 2005.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 390,000 rate.

 

The median home sales price in July fell 11.5 percent to $210,100 from a year earlier, the department said.

Compared to June, the median price slipped 0.1 percent.

The inventory of homes available for sale in July fell 3.2 percent to 271,000 units, the lowest since March 1993, the department said.

July's sales pace left the supply of homes available for sale at 7.5 months' worth, the lowest since April 2007.

Dass man mit short AUD/JPY jetzt vermutlich ähnlich Reibach machen könnte, wie im Frühjahr mit long AUD/JPY, sehe ich ähnlich. Ich halte mich allerdings hier mal vornehm zurück, da ich mit Risikopositionen derzeit schon fast so vollgestopft bin wie ein muslimischer Selbstmord-Attentäter ;-)))

Comments

Over the course of this week we have highlighted the fact that many of the major FX reserve accumulators continue to see significant inflows of foreign capital into their local equity markets. As a result, it seems reasonable to suppose that FX reserves have continued to grow this month and that, moreover, with yields in mainstream markets likely to remain low for an extended period of time, it seems reasonable to suppose that these inflows will continue for some time yet (although we do recognise that China’s equity market remains the wild card here). However, this represents something of a mixed blessing for these managers given the expectation that the USD will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future. The question, therefore, is what these reserves should be diversified into instead.

One possible alternative that fulfils a lot of the basic needs of a reserve currency (widely traded and a deep underlying government bond market) is the JPY. Despite its status, it represented just 1.5% of the reserves of Emerging and Developing economies (or , least, those that reported to make up of their reserves) as of the end of Q1 of this year. By way of comparison GBP represented 5.3% of known EM reserves, the EUR 30% and the USD 61%. Indeed, it is also worth noting that back at the end of 2001 the JPY represented 2.3% of known EM reserves while GBP holdings were just 2.6% of the total.

The reason why the JPY has remained out of favour for so long with mangers was simple enough. An unattractive yield, it’s continued use as a funding currency by those involved in carry trade activity, an activist MOF (up until early 2004) and outflows of domestic capital all worked as a disincentive to holding the currency for any extended period of time. However, over the course of the past twelve months, many, if not all, of these issues have simply disappeared. 

Perhaps the most significant shift that has emerged is that, relatively speaking, the yield available on the JPY is no longer that unattractive. We note, for example, that the three month USD/JPY yield gap currently stands at just 0.17% compared to an average since the start of 1982 of nearly 3%. Similarly, the three month GBP/JPY yield gap is a negligible 0.11% while the average over the past twenty seven years and seven months has been almost 5%. Even the 0.22% three month yield gap for EUR/JPY is modest when compared to the average of 3.42%. Moreover, it is worth noting that in the past the JPY has typically strengthened against the USD whenever the yield gap has fallen below 2%, against the EUR when it has dropped below 2.5% and against GBP when it has narrowed to less that 4%. With little sign of the JPY now being used as a funding currency for carry trade activity (speculative positions in the futures market are virtually flat) and inflows of foreign capital actually outweighing Japanese investment overseas in recent weeks it would seem that many of the forces that have traditionally weighed upon the JPY are simply not there any more.

This leaves just one other topic to be considered, namely how keen the MOF is likely to prove to be in preventing the JPY from strengthening. Given this, it is worth considering quite what (if anything) the Democratic Party of Japan’s feels about currency market intervention should they come to power on August 30th (which seems increasingly likely given the latest opinion polls). 

Although DPJ lawmaker Tsutomu Okubo has said that there’s no consensus in the party on currency policy, two of the runners for the job of finance minister (along with Katsuya Okada, the second most senior member of the party and current secretary-general), Masaharu Nakagawa (current shadow finance minister and a former finance minister in the anti-LDP coalition from 1993 to 1994) and Hirohisa Fujii (a top adviser for the Democrats) have both expressed caution about the use of currency intervention except in extreme circumstances. Even more importantly, Mr.  Okada himself told Reuters earlier this month: "What to do with currencies should be left to a new government. But I think trying to move currency rates artificially when they are in line with economic fundamentals would be undesirable in the long run." Given that some DPJ lawmakers have criticised the LDP in the past for trying to support exporters by trying to weaken the JPY, it would seem that the most likely outcome of the election is a decidedly non-interventionist stance for the MOF except in extremis. 

All this paints a surprisingly bullish picture for the JPY. With the technical picture on crosses such as GBP/JPY starting to look increasingly negative as well, could the surprise move of the latter part of the year be a strengthening of the JPY? 

 

r ist das wirklich so unübersichtlich?

"The Commerce Department said sales rose 9.6 percent to a 433,000 annual pace, the highest in ten months, from an upwardly revised 395,000 in June.
...
The inventory of homes available for sale in July fell 3.2 percent to 271,000 units, the lowest since March 1993, the department said.  

July's sales pace left the supply of homes available for sale at 7.5 months' worth, the lowest since April 2007"

Zumindest kratze ich mich immer noch am Kopf, um diese 3 Dinge im Zusammenhang verstehen zu können...

Die Börse kratzt sich anscheinend auch noch am Kopf...

Die 433'000 waren "annual pace"...

Die bringen mich noch mal um, die Amis mit ihren saublöden Annualisierungen und Saisonalisierungen... :-(

Aber warum der zum Verkauf stehende Häuserbestand jetzt trotz Foreclosures etc. frecherweise völlig Bären-unkompatibel auf einem Low seit 1993 steht, dazu erhoffe ich mir ja noch Aufklärung von einigen der noch weniger Alzheimer-geplagten Bärenkollegen... ;-)

..Preceded the Break in US Financial Markets

The peak of foreign capital inflows into the US was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2007, just before the crisis in the US that has rocked its banking system and driven it deeply into recession.

Are the two events connected? Had the US become a Ponzi scheme that began to collapse when new investment began to wane, and the growth of returns could not be maintained?

Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions.

The sad truth is that US collateralized debt packages and their derivatives have become toxic in the minds of the rest of the world, and there is little being done to change that, except an orderly winding down of the bubble, with the remaining assets being divided largely by insiders.

Unfortunately the Net Inflow Data is quarterly, and subject to revisions. But we have to note that the spectacularly rally off the bottom in the SP 500, not fully depicted above, is not being matched by a return of foreign capital inflows.

If that inflow does not return, if the median wage of Americans does not increase, if the financial system is not reformed, if the economy is not brought back into balance between the service and manufacturing sectors, exports and imports, then there can be no sustained recovery in the real, productive economy.

The rally in the US markets is based on an extreme series of New Deal for Wall Street programs from the Fed and the Treasury, monetization, and the devaluation of the dollar.

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

"Weitere Prognose: Gold, Aktien, EUR/USD, AUD/JPY werden dem Öl nach unten folgen (im Laufe der nächsten 2 Wochen)."

"As we have been highlighting in recent weeks, our iFlow bond indicators continue to show strong net buying of US Treasuries. This implies the increased issuance by the Treasury has been met adequately by investor demand of late. Indeed, the benchmark 10-year yield has come off to about 3.42% presently after having spiked to above 3.85% in the immediate aftermath of the non-farm payrolls report earlier this month. Foreign and institutional investors have been robust buyers of US debt as evidenced by the latest $42 bln worth of two-year note issuance yesterday. In fact, the statement by Brazilian central bank governor Meirelles yesterday also expressed confidence in US sovereign debt – the fourth-largest owner of Treasuries has been rebuilding its holdings which have climbed to $139.8 bln in June from a 17-month low of $126 bln in April. Looking ahead, there is $39 bln worth of 5-year bond issuance slated for today, while another $28 bln worth of seven-year notes will be sold tomorrow. This could prove to be further supportive for the greenback, which is being buoyed currently by a pullback in risk appetite. iFlow FX indicators show strong net selling of especially Sterling and the Canadian dollar, while most other G-10 currencies remain modestly net bought for now."

ja, der Markt macht einen schlaffen Eindruck, allerdings könnte dies auch täuschen, denn "it could be just another fakeout on its way to higher highs."
Also obacht ;-))

meine position ist  usd-yen long  euro-usd short und  und bei usd-cad long kurzfrist....... beachten sollte man auch das  die jap. nationalbank angekündigt hat, die intervents  zu beenden.......

und man muss schon feststellen, wirklich sehr, sehr bullish das Sentiment.

"Also obacht ;-))"

... dass ich angesichts meiner vielen schwer drückenden Sprengstoffgürtel beim Zigarettenanzünden besonders vorsichtig bin ;-)

"allerdings könnte dies auch täuschen, denn 'it could be just another fakeout on its way to higher highs.'"

Deshalb habe ich mir ja auch extra noch ein paar Reserven für zusätzliche Sprengstoffgürtel bis über 6'000 gelassen ;-)

"und man muss schon feststellen, wirklich sehr, sehr bullish das Sentiment."

Wer jetzt nicht wenigstens tradingmässig short geht und weiter auf eine Extraeinladung wartet, der hat's wirklich an der Birne...

was du daraus machst, bleibt selbstverständlich dir überlassen. Aber all' die startradenden Großinvestsoren werden die Zeichen sicherlich in ihrem Sinne zu deuten wissen ;-)))

"Wer jetzt nicht wenigstens tradingmässig short geht und weiter auf eine Extraeinladung wartet, der hat's wirklich an der Birne..."

Das gilt natürlich nur für Leute, die nicht aus grundsätzlichen Überlegungen die Finger von shorts lassen...