Der USA Bären-Thread

sich die Amis die Produkte halt selber wieder herstellen, die sie zu konsumieren gedenken. Oder ist das zu einfach gedacht?

Die Amis können sich ja ihre eigenen Löhne nicht mehr leisten. Deshalb ist die US-Autoindustrie nahezu pleite, während Auto-Importe aus Billigländern boomen. Theoretisch könnten die Amis die Sachen selber fertigen, aber der Preise wären dann nicht wettbewerbsfähig, außer

- man verordnet "buy american" und  verbietet Billigimporte, oder

- man zahlt in USA Billiglöhne wie in Korea

The US economy will shrink far more than expected this year and will rebound much more slowly than forecast after that, according to a bleak new assessment by the White House Budget Office.

The federal government also faces exploding deficits and mounting debt over the next decade, far worse than what the Obama administration had estimated just a few months ago.

The revised estimates project that the economy will contract by 2.8 percent this year, more than twice what the White House predicted earlier this year.

Obama economic adviser Christina Romer projected that the economy would expand in 2010, but by 2 percent instead of the 3.2 percent growth the White House predicted in May. By 2011, Romer estimated, the economy would be humming at 3.6 percent growth.

Figures released by the White House budget office foresee a cumulative $9 trillion deficit from 2010-2019, $2 trillion more than the administration estimated in May.

• Slideshow: Biggest Holders of US Government Debt

  Moreover, the figures show the public debt doubling by 2019 and reaching three-quarters the size of the entire national economy. Romer predicted unemployment could reach 10 percent this year and begin a slow decline next year.

  Still, she said, the average unemployment will be 9.3 in 2009 and 9.8 percent in 2010.

  "This recession was simply worse than the information that we and other forecasters had back in last fall and early this winter," Romer said.

  The grim administration projections came on a day of competing economic news.

  The Congressional Budget Office, which has predicted less economic growth than the White House in the past, was also scheduled to announce revised budget projections on Tuesday.

  Obama himself may have drowned out the rising deficit news with the announcement Tuesday that he will nominate Ben Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

  The Bernanke news could neutralize any disturbance in the financial markets caused by the high deficit projections.

   

  The deeper red ink and the gloomy unemployment forecast present President Barack Obama with an enormous challenge.

  The new numbers come as he prods Congress to enact a major overhaul of the health care system—one that could cost $1 trillion or more over 10 years.

  Obama has said he doesn't want the measure to add to the deficit, but lawmakers have been unable to agree on revenues that cover the cost.

  What's more, the high unemployment could last well into the congressional election campaign next year, turning the contests into a referendum on Obama's economic policies.

  Republicans were ready to pounce.

• Slideshow: A History of US Government Spending

  "The alarm bells on our nation's fiscal condition have now become a siren," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said. "If anyone had any doubts that this burden on future generations is unsustainable, they're gone—spending, borrowing and debt are out of control."

  Both Romer and budget director Peter Orszag said this year's contraction would have been far worse without money from the $787 billion economic stimulus package that Obama pushed through Congress as one of his first major acts as president.

  At the same time, the continuing stresses on the economy have, in effect, increased the size of the stimulus package because the government will have to spend more in unemployment insurance and food stamps, Orszag said.

  He said the cost of the stimulus package—which spends most of its money in fiscal year 2010—will grow by tens of billions of dollars above the original $787 billion.

  For now, while the country tries to come out of a recession, neither spending cuts nor broad tax increases would be prudent deficit-fighting measures.

  But Obama is likely to face those choices once the economy shows signs of a steady recovery, and it could test his vow to only raise taxes on individuals making more than $200,000.

  Still, 10-year budget projections can be "wildly inaccurate," said Stan Collender, a partner at Qorvis Communications and a former congressional budget official.

   

  Collender notes that there will be five congressional elections over the next 10 years and any number of foreign and domestic challenges that will make actual deficit figures very different from the estimates.

  The Obama administration did tout one number in its budget review: The 2009 deficit was expected to be $1.58 trillion, $263 billion less than projected in May.

  That's largely because the White House removed a $250 billion item that it had inserted as a "place holder" in case banks needed another bailout.

  Orszag, anticipating backlash over the deficit numbers, conceded that the long-term deficits are "higher than desirable." The annual negative balances amount to about 4 percent of the gross domestic product, a number that many economists say is unsustainable.

  But Orszag also argued that overhauling the health system would reduce health care costs and address the biggest contributor to higher deficits.

  "I know there are going to be some who say that this report proves that we can't afford health reform," he said. "I think that has it backwards."

Übernahmegerüchte werden gestreut.

Für wen würde so ein Deal überhaupt einen Sinn ergeben?

Für die Wettbewerber wahrscheinlich kaum. Wie wir alle wissen, ist Größe
nicht gleichbedeutend mit Erfolg.

Für einen Investor, der in billigem Geld schwimmt? Schon eher.
Eine Dividendenrendite von 3,8 bezw. 4,3% ist nicht zu verachten.
Was eine Zerschlagung bringen würde, kann ich nicht sagen.
Ich wünsche jedenfalls Niemandem, dass es so weit kommt.

In nachstehendem Artikel ist wohl das Wichtigste, dass Herr Hambrecht locker
das Doppelte für sein Unternehmen veranschlagt. Ist denn die BASF so
unterbewertet?

Bei einer Übernahme würden sich die Aktionäre wahrscheinlich
auch mit weniger zufrieden geben.

Auszug:

BASF wappnet sich gegen Übernahme
Grüne Gentechnik wird ausgebaut
25.08.2009 - (dpa-AFX) Der Chef des Chemiekonzerns BASF, Jürgen Hambrecht, hält den Versuch einer feindlichen Übernahme angesichts der niedrigen Bewertung seines Unternehmens an der Börse für möglich. Allerdings habe BASF für diesen Fall einen Abwehrplan erstellt, sagte Hambrecht der "Wirtschaftswoche" (Montag). Daher sei eine feindliche Übernahme durch andere Unternehmen oder Investoren schwierig. "70 Milliarden Euro, also etwa das Doppelte des Börsenwertes, müssten die schon bezahlen. Das Geld muss erst mal hereinkommen, und die Banken müssten dafür Kredite zur Verfügung stellen.  

Eigene Übernahmen schließt Hambrecht trotz liquider Mittel von drei Milliarden Euro für die nächste Zukunft aus. Derzeit konzentriere sich BASF auf die Integration des Schweizer Chemieunternehmens Ciba, so der BASF-Chef: Einen großen Zukauf wie Ciba werden wir nicht machen, das würde die Kapazitäten überfordern.

www.chemie.de/news/d/105173/?WT.mc_id=ca0065


BASF sollte man im Auge behalten.

Fear and Exuberance

By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
8/25/2009 10:39 AM EDT
    
    
There has been little fear in this market, and why should there be? All the news is positive -- from housing to consumer sentiment to Ben Bernanke's reappointment. It has been an impossible battle for the bears, even when they have had some negative news. In this market the only fear that exists is not being able to put capital to work and being left behind.

However, at this point the problem for the bulls is that they are a little too exuberant in some cases and have resorted to chasing stocks like Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) simply because they are moving. There is nothing wrong with that sort of trading, but what we have to watch for is when it stops working. When the junk stocks stop running and the market doesn't react positively to good news, then we should be concerned about a change in market character.

The selling is picking up as I write, so there are the makings of some "sell the news" reaction in the air, but as I've written many times lately the bulls are not going to go away quickly or easily. It is going to take a lot of work to discourage them, especially when the news is so supportive.

"man verordnet "buy american" und  verbietet Billigimporte" wäre ja nun nicht wirklich schwer.

Ein Land, in dem die "USA" schwer geschätzt ist, u.a. auch deshalb, weil das allgemeine Bildungsniveau eher niedrig ist und die, die was können oder Potenzial haben, von den USA mit offenen Armen aufgenommen werden, ist z.B. Äthiopien. Hier besteht ein Importzoll von 100% auf Autos. Und das, obwohl es noch nicht einmal eine einheimische Produktion zu schützen gilt, da nicht vorhanden.  Da ist man den USA also schon um einiges voraus. Aber was nicht ist, kann ja noch werden. Man arbeitet schliesslich auch in Kriegsfragen (Somalia) eng zusammen.

Wenn die anderen Staaten das dann auch machen, ist da unterm Strich für alle negativ...

H. Meisler, Street.com:

... the 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line is very much overbought now. That has typically preceded a market correction. The last time it was this overbought was in late April, and the May correction followed. Then it became overbought again in early June, and the correction in June into early July followed.

aber die Amis haben nicht gerade eine reiche Auswahl an Möglichkeiten, wie man "andere schonend" aus der Krise kommt.

Fox-Pitt Kelton expects Citigroup to face another $44 billion in loan losses over the next 18 months, but said the embattled bank's capital is now strong following the "painfully dilutive"
preferred conversion.

Citi received $45 billion of bailout money from the U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, and the government now owns a 34 percent stake in the company.

"We are not modelling in write-downs in problem securities, given recent stability in prices," analyst David Trone wrote in a note to clients Monday.

 

Citi's large exposure to problem securities could once again be a threat, should the global economy dip again, the analyst said, adding that loan losses could end up closer to $68 billion.

However, Trone, who has a "hold" rating and a price target of $4 on the stock, said long-term value investors have shown a willingness to look beyond the forthcoming losses on legacy loans.

Separately, Sandler O'Neill raised its price target on the stock to $5.50 from $4 and said fundamental underperformance has primarily been driven by losses on "troubled assets," which have largely run their course.

Citi's troubled assets include subprime mortgages, corporate loans, home loans and commercial real estate mortgages, which the bank has been writing down and looking to offload.

USA zu kaufen gibt und zu den billigeren gehören, werden zu einem erklecklichem Teil in den USA gefertigt. Allerdings nicht in Detroit und nicht bei US-Konzernen.   Auch wären viele Amis froh, wenn sie soviel wie die Koreaner verdienen würden:

de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/17498/umfrage/korea:-arbeitsverguetung-%28stundenlohn%29/

Die eigentliche Krux liegt in der Zeit begraben. Man holt nich schnell und einfach die Fertigungen nach Hause. Da ist es eben einfacher mit dem Leitzins zu spielen. MMn wird aber die Einsicht reifen und man wird es dann angehen. Da die Amis schnell sind, werden sie nicht länger als 2 Jahrzehnte brauchen.

 

Roubini befürchtet zweite Weltrezession

von Nouriel Roubini

 

Die Konjunktur erholt sich langsam, doch Hoffnung auf einen nachhaltigen Aufschwung ist fehl am Platz. Der Weltwirtschaft drohen mehrere Jahre mit kraftlosem Wachstum, ist sich der US-Starökonom sicher.

Nouriel Roubini ist Professor für Ökonomie an der Stern School of Business in New York.

Allmählich findet die Weltwirtschaft aus der Talsohle der schlimmsten Rezession seit der Großen Depression heraus. Jetzt stellen sich drei Fragen: Wann wird die weltweite Rezession vorüber sein? Welche Form wird die Erholung annehmen? Und besteht das Risiko eines Rückfalls?

Auf die erste Frage lässt sich antworten, dass es aussieht, als werde die Weltwirtschaft in der zweiten Hälfte 2009 die Talsohle überwinden. In vielen Industrienationen - den USA, Großbritannien, Spanien, Italien und anderen Staaten der Euro-Zone - und in einigen Schwellenmärkten vor allem in Europa wird die Rezession nicht vor Ende des Jahres zu Ende sein. In anderen Industrienationen wie Australien, Deutschland, Frankreich und Japan sowie in den meisten Schwellenmärkten hat die Erholung bereits begonnen.

In der Debatte über die zweite Frage stehen sich zwei Lager gegenüber: Der Großteil der Experten geht von einer V-förmigen Erholung mit rascher Rückkehr zum Wachstum aus. Das andere Lager, mich eingeschlossen, glaubt, dass die Erholung einige Jahre U-förmig, kraftlos und unterhalb des Trends verlaufen wird. Zuvor wird über einige Quartale rasches Wachstum verzeichnet, angekurbelt durch das Auffüllen von Lagerbeständen.

Weiter unter:www.ftd.de/politik/international/...-zweite-Weltrezession/557923.html

25.08.2009 16:35

In seinem jüngsten Kommentar kündigt Konrad Hummler einen «weitgehenden Rückzug» von Wegelin aus Amerika an. Konkret empfiehlt die Privatbank ihren Anlegern den Ausstieg aus allen US-Titeln.

www.cash.ch/news/front/...schiedet_sich_aus_den_usa-826421-449

An auction of $42 billion in government debt netted a high yield of 1.119 percent as traders greeted with first Treasury sale this week with average demand.

Following the auction, U.S. government debt prices held their losses as gains on Wall Street and stronger-than-expected housing data reduced a safety bid for bonds.

The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand against supply, was 2.68. The 2-year auction is the first of three auctions that will feature $109 billion in long-dated debt supply.

 

"Given a solid housing starts and less price deterioration than expected, the immediate reaction in the market was to back up short-term rates a few basis points as this is positive for housing," said Christian Cooper, an interest rate strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

Cooper also referred to data on housing starts for single-family homes released last week.

U.S. rates futures turned negative in reaction to the unexpectedly large 1.4 percent increase in home prices in June contained in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller report. On a year-over-year basis, home prices in the 20 U.S. cities tracked in the report were down 15.4 percent, less severe than the 17.1 percent decline in May.

 

Evidence of stabilization in the housing market and the stock market rally since March have been encouraging for consumers and policy-makers.

But high unemployment, weak consumer spending and a burgeoning federal deficit tied to efforts to end the worst downturn since the Great Depression will be a drag on U.S. growth over the next several years, analysts said.

The price of  the 10-year Treasury notes slipped to fresh session lows after a report showed unexpectedly strong improvement in consumer confidence in August.

The Conference Board, a business group, said its consumer confidence index rose to 54.1 in August from an upwardly revised 47.4 in July. Analysts had expected the index would likely edge up to 47.5.

The benchmark 10-year note briefly hit a session low of 100-28/32, down 12/32 from Monday's close in New York. Its yield, which moves inversely to its price, touched 3.52 percent, up from 3.48 percent late Monday.

 

"As long as home price declines are less than what they had been, people will feel better," said Carl Kaufman, portfolio manager at Osterweis Capital Management in San Francisco.

President Obama, as expected, renominated Ben Bernanke to a second term as the head of the Federal Reserve.

"I don't think the bond market has priced in that Bernanke was not going to renominated," said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.

Wall Street was higher, partly propelled by the stronger than expected home price data.

Amazon Short mit kleinem Gewinn raus,
Allianz Short mit kleinem Verlust raus,

Eine größere Position DAX Shorts rein (Anfangsposition ca. 50% der geplanten Größe) bei DAX 5539.

SL 5700

Gruß

Permanent

wäre ich noch vorsichtig. Die Fed ( und damit die Großbanken) wollen keine schlechte Stimmung. Schwankungen werden toleriert, um den Eigenhandel lukrativ zu halten. Erst wenn die Enttäuschung über eine zu geringe Erholung der Wirtschaft sichtbar wird, kann auch die Fed den Markt nicht stützen und die Bullenherde weiter antreiben.
We can buy our own bullshit.
Bullshitter to the front.

Ich werfe mich sicher nicht mit meinen Ersparnissen vor die Bullenherde. Deine Argumentation ist durchaus richtig allerdings wird der Wille zum Eingeständnis der Fehleinschätzungen bei der US Admin. immer größer.

Es sind ja im Grunde genommen ganz simple Zusammenhänge: Wir haben über die Verhältnisse gelebt und nun müssen wir zahlen. Jeder wird versuchen seinen Teil der Rechnung gering zu halten:
http://www.ariva.de/Obama_erklaert_t283343?pnr=6376166#jump6376166

Gruß

Permanent

wos denn hingehen soll. Eigentlich hatte ich mit steigenden Aktienmärkten gerechnet, bin aber nicht long Aktien  gegangen sondern short im Bund. Der hätte eigentlich fallen müssen, hat er aber nicht. Heute mit verlust raus. Das kommt mir alles etwas komisch vor.
Das steigende Verbrauchervertrauen hat heute ein Sell th good News ausgelöst aber trotzdem sehe ich momentan keinen Absturz. Ich mache im Moment nichts und suche einen neuen Einstieg.

... gewesen: ;-)

Die Bondleute sind eben keine Aktienbullen und rechnen überwiegend nicht mit der Nachhaltigkeit der Rallye, so u.a. auch hier zu sehen: #48247

Wer am Schluss Recht behält ist natürlich nicht raus. Aber ich selbst halte zumindest mit den Bondleuten ;-)

AA1U4J   u.a.

Market Commentary
Yes, Virginia, the Chart Matters
By Robert Marcin
Street.com Contributor
8/25/2009 1:44 PM EDT


Earlier today, I posted a chart in Columnist Conversation and asked, not rhetorically, whether it mattered. We've had a spirited discussion since then.

My take? In the long run, it matters a lot. In the short run, the market is so inefficient that even the law of gravity can be suspended for stocks. So it doesn't matter till it does, but then it's the biggest matter.

See, I have to agree with Cramer that the Fed almost ruined the economy, but for a reason completely different. In order to temper any cyclical economic or financial market downturn, the Fed eased. It forced leverage and risk on the investor for a good decade.

The crisis occurred not because Bernanke didn't take rates to 0% fast enough, but because Fed policies and banking system oversight failed. Bear Stearns, Lehman, Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) didn't fail because Ben let them go, but because of the disastrous business models they pursued. Many market observers still haven't acknowledged this.

We had -- nay, still have -- real estate problems, overlevered households, a severely overcapacitized and ill-fitted industrial base and a grossly undercapitalized banking system. I find it hard to believe that this is irrelevant or fully discounted in financial asset prices.

If the chart doesn't matter -- it does, after all, compare one side of the national balance sheet only to our income statement -- then maybe the credit crisis and bear market was only a bad dream. That's what the bulls say now. If the chart does matter, and delevering is still ahead of us in an unpleasant manner, then this six-month rally has been nothing more than a sweet, sweet dream. That's the current bear case.

Being a fundamentals- and valuation-driven investor, I find it difficult to ignore the chart because I always believed it would matter in a huge way at some time. Until the ratios are proven irrelevant to me, or until they rebalance at more sustainable levels, I continue to be cautious.

I put the same chart up 12 months ago, and was assured by the bulls that it didn't matter, was old news, etc. They argued not to fight the Fed last summer and fall. Many called the housing/banking bottom then as well.

But the ratios bothered me, so I advised caution. I don't know if it's over and whether another new economic/market cycle lies ahead. It still feels to me as if things were saved but not fixed. And "fixed" would be better than requiring the Fed to backstop every asset class and every large bank and every counterparty risk on the planet.

This is not an easy call. To remain bearish, one must make the case that the chart matters, and that because of the debt bubble it's different this time. To remain bullish, one must believe that the chart is irrelevant or incorrect and that we will experience a normal, healthy, self perpetuating recovery. In the case of normal vs. different -- i.e., "the chart doesn't matter" vs. "it does" -- I will embrace the latter, but acknowledge the possibility of being wrong. That keeps my net long position in more defensible profit streams at modest valuations. If things ever start to roll, I can pile on a short bet.

http://www.ariva.de/...A_Baeren_Thread_t283343?page=1929#jumppos48230

ist "schneller als erwartet" eingetroffen. WTI notiert aktuell bei -3 %.

Weitere Prognose: Gold, Aktien, EUR/USD, AUD/JPY werden dem Öl nach unten folgen (im Laufe der nächsten 2 Wochen).

Ohne Gewehrsmann.

Japan's exports fell in July from the previous month for the first decline in two months, in a possible sign that the impact of stimulus measures in major economies worldwide is starting to wane.

 

#800000">Exports to the United States, which have lagged improvements in shipments to Asia, fell at a faster annual rate in July compared to the previous month, as the world's largest economy struggles to pick up steam, while the yen's rise also played a part.

Japan's exports to the fast-growing Chinese economy also declined at a faster annual pace, as a surge in state spending and loan growth failed to mask tepid domestic demand there.

Some overseas stimulus programmes have already expired, and economists' warn that as fiscal support for the global economy runs its course, Japan's exports could slow as weak labour markets in the United States and Europe mean consumers won't be able to pick up the slack.

"Falls in Japanese exports have been moderating in recent months on companies' restocking efforts and government stimulus worldwide. But the July trade data indicate that the recovery momentum is losing steam," said Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities.

"It is questionable whether exports will continue to recover once the stimulus effect runs out because global final demand may not turn up fully."

 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports dropped 1.3 percent in July from June, trade data showed on Wednesday, the first drop in two months.

Compared with a year earlier, Japan's exports fell 36.5 percent in July from a year earlier, a slightly smaller drop than the market forecast.

Economists' median forecast was for a 38.6 percent fall in July from the same month last year, after a 35.7 percent annual decline in June.

Altogether, Japan logged a trade surplus of 380.2 billion yen ($4 billion) in July, just short of the median estimate for a 385.0 billion yen surplus.

Exports of steel to China were weak, said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan strategist at RBS Securities, raising worries about a China-driven recovery scenario.

"I think material exports to China will garner more attention in coming months," she said.

Overall exports to China fell 26.5 percent from a year earlier, while exports to the United States fell 39.5 percent.

Japan's economy returned to growth in the second quarter, becoming the third G7 country after France and Germany to emerge from recession, as exports rebounded and government subsidies at home lifted private consumption.

But economists say that once stimulus spending in major economies runs its course, global trade may slow again as falling salaries and a lack of job security weigh on consumer spending.

In one example of the temporary nature of stimulus measures, the U.S. government said last week it would end a programme that gives rebates to car buyers for trading in less fuel-efficient vehicles.