wird. Ich würde ja gerne aushelfen, aber mit Tabellen kenne ich mich gar nicht aus. 8 Werte sind ein gesunder Kompromiss.
Du beobachtest 1000 Werte? Erstaunlich, dass du dann überhaupt noch Zeit für unser Spielchen hast!
Anbei noch ein Artikel, der ganz gut reinpasst, da hier ja viele "Momentumplayer" mitmachen.
In 1988, the Wall Street Journal started a contest to determine whether a
blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a stock page could outperform the
picks of investment professionals. The contest was inspired by the theory
of market efficiency; the idea that all available information is priced in
to the market making market out performance a matter of luck. While a fun
poke at Wall Street's wisdom, the contest also served to highlight one of
the central theories of investment finance.
I should first explain by example what is meant by market efficiency.
Suppose a gold exploration company discovers a significant gold deposit.
Upon announcing the find, we would expect the price of the company's stock
to very quickly reflect the find. If the stock had been trading at $1, and
the gold deposit is worth $2 per share, then the stock should jump up to $3
almost instantly. After all, anyone willing to sell the stock for less
would be acting irrationally.
An investor who buys the stock because of the company's new found gold
after the jump in price is foolish, because the information has already
been fully priced in to the stock. While it may be great news, it is only
valuable if the stock trades for less than the information's worth. Market
efficiency assumes that rational investors will ensure that stock price
accurately reflects fundamental value.
This argument essentially makes the aim of every investment analyst
trivial. Since we each analyze stocks to find hidden value that will
ultimately reward us in market beating returns, the idea of market
efficiency means that we can only expect to earn what the market earns in
the long run. The task of picking stocks is a waste of time, and we should
simply buy a basket of stocks reflecting the general movement of the market.
It may be of some surprise to most of you that I more or less agree with
the theory of market efficiency. While I have been making a healthy living
from trading stocks, I agree that analyzing stocks using publicly available
information is more or less a waste of time. But I also believe that the
stock market is a money tree for a small group of investors that the Wall
Street Journal game did not ask to compete against the blindfolded monkey.
Remember that the monkey throwing darts was challenged by leading Wall
Street stock analysts, who likely made their picks based on their analysis
of company fundamentals. What would have happened if the monkey was
challenged by the men and women who run the public companies that were
targeted by the monkey's dart?
The stock market is not fair. While the majority of investors are
considering news releases, analyst reports and annual reports, those closer
to the source of important fundamental information are acting on knowledge
that is not widely known. They are one step ahead of market efficiency.
This group of investors is shaking the money tree while the monkey throws
darts.
Of course, trading on inside information is not legal or ethical, but many
people act in the market with the privilege of private information anyway.
But perhaps more importantly, it is what insiders don't do with their
special insight that has an effect. Would the President of our gold
exploration company sell stock if he knew that his company would soon
announce a significant new discovery?
While this argument may catch your interest and make you wish you could
play more golf games with corporate insiders to learn their secrets, it is
of little help if you wish to beat the stock market. Very few of us can use
private information across a wide range of stocks to predict future
fundamental change making it a nice idea that has little practical use.
Ahh, but not so fast.
What do you think happens when market participants act on private
information? What do you think happens when insiders believe a stock is
worth a lot more than what it is trading at? The supply/demand equation is
thrown out of balance, and these stocks begin to behave in unexpected ways.
The person with an ability to analyze market activity can begin to
determine what the market is looking forward to, rather than what is known
from the past. While most investors base decisions on information from the
public realm, others are acting on future news. When they do, they create
abnormal activity that the analysis of market activity reveals.
Abnormal jumps in price or volume and moves through long established price
ceilings are a few of the simple ways to identify stocks trading on new
fundamentals. These occurrences signal something to those investors willing
to listen to what the market has to tell them, instead of analyzing what
the companies have already said.
This argument is the basis for the effective use of technical analysis. It
can be made more complex by considering how investors interpret
information, denouncing the assumption that investors are always rational
or by considering the mechanics of crowd psychology. However, it is a
powerful reason to learn the basics of market activity analysis.
