die alten Ölförderhasen im peakoilbarrel Forum wundern sich, weil nach deren Berechnungen immer noch nur 20% der horizontalen Bohrlöcher in den USA auf dem aktuellen Niveau jemals in die schwarzen Zahlen kommen werden, mal ein paar Auszüge:
"I think men like you and I have seen our best days in the oilfield -
Now its little more than assembly line well manufacturing and the hope of making 3% annual rate of return on an $9M investment. "
"Basically, the once-great U.S. “Creative” oil industry is now nothing more than the Wal-Mart business model… making fractions of profits on $billions in revenue."
"All of my mentors and operating buddies have stayed way clear of shale oil, and shale gas, except to try and find acreage to trade away to bigger companies. The people that make money in the unconventional shale business are mostly mineral owners, whose granddaddies and daddies bought and worked the land, then left their kids with minerals to play with"
"There are very few private companies that drill LTO or shale oil wells.
I think it is telling that both the Yates and Bass families decided to sell their vast Permian LTO acreages rather than develop said acreages themselves.
Tremendous amounts of capital are required to develop shale. In terms of $$ it is much more similar to offshore than conventional onshore. "
"Encana just drilled 33 wells on a pad, the RAB Davidson, in the Permian, with plans to increase it to 64.
They had 4 rigs, side by side, drilling the wells simultaneously and then 4 frac spreads came in to do the fracturing at the same time.
Big, big bucks."
"the EnCana/Davidson mass manufacturing “project” in Upton County is very cool to see, but a perfect example of buying a car based on chrome and paint, not how it runs. If EnCana says those wells cost $5M each you can bet your steel toed boots they are every bit of $6.5M. The production data I see on shaleprofile.com is about what you observe on IHS. This is Spraberry country, partially depleted from thousands of vertical wells; I absolutely do not get it."
"Only higher oil prices will improve the economics. Perhaps in the sweet spots they can make some money at $55/b, but the average Permian well will need $65/b point forward and maybe $75/b full cycle."
It will be interesting to see the 10Qs as oil prices rise.