AMD projected earning for Q2 is $1.90
by: kvnguyen (M/san jose)
4/13/00 8:34 pm
Msg: 150122 of 150325
Next quarter projection:
Current revenue from processor group: $644M
Current Athlon rev (50% of the group): $322M
AMD expects that Athlon unit sale will go from 1.2M to 1.8M in Q2 (50%). Assuming same ASP, this alone will add 161M to AMD revenue
next quarter. Assume 45% margin, that's $72M more in earning or 44c per share.
So Athlon alone will push Q2 EPS to $1.6. Adding flash & network growth, Q2 can easily reach $1.9 EPS.
Extrapolate (linearly) the results for the year based on expected Athlon unit sales:
Quarter/Athlon sale/Earning per share
Q3'99.....0.0M........-0.72 (actual)
Q4'99.....0.8M.........0.46 (actual)
Q1'00.....1.2M.........1.15 (actual)
Q2'00.....1.8M.........1.9 (projected)
Q3'00.....3.6M.........3.7 (projected)
Q4'00.....7.2M.........7.5 (projected)
Note: Expected Athlon unit sales are from the company conference call.
Note: Since AMD will have to pay tax starting Q3, actual Q3 and Q4 earning will be lower than the above projections. Including tax effect,
FY'00 EPS will be about $10.
Bottom line:
Assuming a PE of 30, AMD stock price will have the support to reach $300 a share.
by: kvnguyen (M/san jose)
4/13/00 8:34 pm
Msg: 150122 of 150325
Next quarter projection:
Current revenue from processor group: $644M
Current Athlon rev (50% of the group): $322M
AMD expects that Athlon unit sale will go from 1.2M to 1.8M in Q2 (50%). Assuming same ASP, this alone will add 161M to AMD revenue
next quarter. Assume 45% margin, that's $72M more in earning or 44c per share.
So Athlon alone will push Q2 EPS to $1.6. Adding flash & network growth, Q2 can easily reach $1.9 EPS.
Extrapolate (linearly) the results for the year based on expected Athlon unit sales:
Quarter/Athlon sale/Earning per share
Q3'99.....0.0M........-0.72 (actual)
Q4'99.....0.8M.........0.46 (actual)
Q1'00.....1.2M.........1.15 (actual)
Q2'00.....1.8M.........1.9 (projected)
Q3'00.....3.6M.........3.7 (projected)
Q4'00.....7.2M.........7.5 (projected)
Note: Expected Athlon unit sales are from the company conference call.
Note: Since AMD will have to pay tax starting Q3, actual Q3 and Q4 earning will be lower than the above projections. Including tax effect,
FY'00 EPS will be about $10.
Bottom line:
Assuming a PE of 30, AMD stock price will have the support to reach $300 a share.
