"Man erwartet eine chinesischen Abschluß die nächsten Wochen, oder sogar noch auf den derzeit in Moskau laufenden internationalen Fertilizertagungen."
Solche Aussagen hört man seit chin. Neujahr
"Zudem habe ich dem Begriff "automatisch gegeben" den Fakt der endlichen Minenbetriebszeiten unterlegt. Sich kann eine Preisanstieg noch etwas Zeit in Anspruch nehmen. Habe ich ja auch geschrieben, daß der Anstieg kommen wird(muß!), allerdings ist nicht genau deffiniert, wann die Mindermengen am Markt den Anstieg auslösen."
Die IFA gibt zum jährlichen Meeting auch einen "Potash Outlook". Im May 2015 war er wie folgt bezüglich Kapazitäten:
Potash Outlook
Major brownfield projects and four new mines to come on stream between 2015 and 2019
Potash capacity will continue to expand at a rapid rate compared with 2014, as most projects initiated in the 2008-2012 period are now being commissioned. About 25 expansion projects are being carried out by established producers for completion between 2015 and 2019. Four large greenfield projects are planned for completion by 2019 in Canada, Russia and Belarus. Global potassium capacity is forecast to increase 16%, from 52.2 Mt K2O in 2014 to 60.8 Mt in 2019.
North America and Eastern Europe & Central Asia to account for 70% of world incremental potash supply between 2014 and 2019
Global potential potassium supply would increase to 51.8 Mt K2O in 2019, representing an overall increment of 9Mt, or 21% growth compared with 2014. Three regions will account for the bulk of supply growth: North America (Canada) will contribute 7 Mt K2O, followed by Eastern Europe & Central Asia (Russia, Belarus), with a net 1 Mt, and East Asia (China) with 1 Mt.
Moderate potash demand growth over five years
Global potassium demand for all uses would reach 39.5 Mt K2O in 2019, representing an average annual growth rate of 2.5% between 2014 and 2019.
Short-term equilibrium moving towards a growing surplus in the long run
Global supply growth will exceed growth in demand in the long term. A moderate expansion of the prevailing surplus will continue until 2016; by 2017, the global potential surplus would accelerate as a result of the planned commissioning of new large-capacity projects.
Under a slow-growth scenario, the five-year global supply and demand would show relatively stable potential surpluses of 8-9 Mt K2O in 2015 and 2016 and, by 2017, increase gradually to 11 Mt in 2019.
www.fertilizer.org/imis20/images/...5_ifa_istanbul_summary.pdf
Alles ist natürlich endlich, aber je nach Sichtweise dauert es manchmal länger als man denkt.