Der USA Bären-Thread

....I'm long stocks, gold, short us dollars next 24-48 hours but ..on the anniversary for LEHMAN... tonight could be the day where FED did too much.....
Low yield and monetary policy stopped having an impact two years ago, tonight could be the night where after the rally low rates no longer impact stock and risky asset - the only cheap asset right now is: money ...every time this has been the case in history it has ended in bubble and tears.
www.tradingfloor.com/posts/...-are-now-doing-open-e-1580743657

www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2012/09/12/...r-financial-markets/

.....But the elephant in the room is what, if anything, these measures will achieve in terms of real economy impact. “Let them eat stocks and housing” has not been terribly successful. Even with super low rates, it has also taken massive sequestering of inventories for the housing market to have the appearance of stabilizing. We have low household formation due to young adults facing high unemployment, low paying jobs with generally short job tenures, and heavy student debt burdens. On top of that, we have generational headwinds as boomers hit retirement age and want or need to downsize. Keeping money on sale is not going to induce banks to lend more if they can’t find enough qualified borrowers. And the consumer deleveraging story is not as positive as the statistics would lead you to believe. A lot of it is involuntary, meaning driven by foreclosures. In addition, retirees also curtail their spending thanks to the fall in interest income they’ve suffered under ZIRP.

But another big issue is that the Fed looks to have painted itself in a corner. Is the US going to have 3.5% mortgage interest rates forever? If the central banks does manage to create a bit more inflation, how does it think it will exit? A mere 1% increase in interest rates, from 3.5% to 4.5%, increases mortgage payments on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage payments by 13%. That will translate into a meaningful dent in housing prices. And where does the Fed go if a financial crisis or other shock occurs?

The Fed failed to see the crisis coming,.......
Read more at www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/09/...it.html#XUAzV3i0PykWG5Bb.99

SEPTEMBER 13, 2012BY

von Ronald Gehrt

www.rottmeyer.de/esm-bvg-omt-und-der-lange-weg-zum-crash/

genau das ist die Denke von Bernanke:

Assetpreise hochtreiben, dann fühlt sich der Konsument reicher und wird mehr konsumieren:

www.zerohedge.com/news/...ng-asset-bubbles-antidote-depression

eingestellt, deren Ausblick nochmals angehoben wurde. Zusammengefasst: Makro sind wird durch. Alles bestens sozusagen. OE III steht dazu offensichtlich im Widerspruch, zumal auch 'die Märkte' alles andere als einen kritischen, nach Intervention schreienden Status signalisieren und stattdessen bereits jetzt in Liquidität ertrinken. Also scheidet eine Makrobegründung für die letzten Massnahmen aus und übrig bleibt lediglich eine psychologische, die auf das politische Sentiment abzielt, um die Wahlen zu beeinflussen...

Aus Bärensicht wird QE III das Downmomentum des zukünftigen Bärenmarktes logischerweise beschleunigen, der allerdings erst dann einsetzen wird, wenn sich das Einsammeln der zuvor so masslos aufgenötigten Liquidität abzuzeichnen beginnt. Denn je mehr Liquidität draussen ist, desto mehr muss auch wieder zurückgeholt werden.  Eine für mich als Noch-Bulle überraschende und ziemlich unkluge Entscheidung der FED...

mit QE "leider" nicht nur die Assets seiner Wahl (Häuser, Aktien) nach oben treibt, sondern auch andere, insbes. Öl, rechne ich in den nächsten Wochen mit Margin-Hikes und der Freigabe nationaler Reserven.

www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/14/...ng-idUSBRE88D0EF20120914

....counsel Sasha Wass said: "Mr Adoboli had ceased to act as a professional investment banker and had begun to approach his work as a naked gambler. He had become what is sometimes referred to as a rogue trader."

"Adoboli's motive for this behavior was to increase his bonus, his status within the bank, his job prospects and his ego," Wass said.

"He did this by exceeding his trading limits, by inventing fictitious deals to conceal this and then he lied to his bosses," she told the jury.

Wass said his fraudulent deals had wiped 10 percent, or about $4.5 billion, off the Swiss bank's share price.

At one stage he risked losing nearly $12 billion in unhedged investments. "He had been sucked into the gambler's mindset and he started throwing good money after bad," she said. "He was putting the very existence of the bank at risk.".....

wirft innerhalb von 4 Monaten über Immobilien die Menge Geld ab, die für die Beschaffung der Jahres-Welt-Förderung von Gold notwendig wäre; schon echt krass!!

dann merkt, dass wie Kicky in seinem letzten Posting schreibt, das die Maxime: "Let them eat stocks and housing" nicht funktioniert, bzw. nicht den gewünschten Erfolg bringt, dann wird QE4 gestartet: Darüber werden dann die Steuern der Steuerzahler gezahlt, solange bis sich der Ami wieder sein Konsumverhalten von vor der Krise aufnimmt.

Nachfrage auf den Güter- und Faktormärkten an. Es wird lediglich die Drosselung des Staatskonsum und damit einhergehend Reformen vermieden.

Permanent

The S&P 500 is up 0.6% after a 1.6% rally yesterday.
The open was a bit disappointing but stocks are now only 6% from the Oct. 2007 all-time high of 1576.

Part of the story, however, is dollar devaluation. Priced in yen, the index is 40% from the record high and roughly 25% in AUD or CHF.
Priced in euros, is where it really gets interesting. A few weeks ago, the S&P 500 peaked almost precisely at its 2007 high (priced in euros).

Over the coming months, it will be interesting to see if euros outperform the S&P 500.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/09/14/...ket-rally-to-record-high/

pigbonds.info/

Antrag auf Schirmschlupf? wie GS schon vermutete für 13./14.

www.alt-market.com/articles/...ment-to-kill-the-dollar-arrived

I predicted simultaneous QE programs by the two central banks because it made perfect sense, at least, for those with diabolical intentions. (-;)) A.L.)  With engineered currency devaluation in full swing in the EU and the U.S., the implosion of both currencies, especially the dollar, will be masked.  That is to say, the dollar index is measured in large part by comparison to the relative strength of the Euro.  If the Euro falls through overt printing, the dollar will appear stronger than it really is, duping the general public and giving bankers more time to inflate.

Germany’s top constitutional court, only a day before QE3, announced its decision to support a Euro-area rescue fund, which the German people and a large part of its government are vehemently opposed to.  This action was preceded by “warnings” from various banking insiders, including Nosferatu himself (George Soros), that the EU would be sent into perdition and total economic chaos if the nation did not bow down to the ECB and hand over its GDP engine for the “good of the union” and the world:

www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/world/europe/...-letter14.html?_r=0

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-11/...s-badly-off-the-mark.html

Sound familiar?  This is exactly what Americans were told in the face of their 80% disapproval rating against the bailout bonanza.  The response from the elites, whether in Germany or the U.S. is essentially that the people “don’t know what’s best, and should sit down while the so called “experts” take it from here.”  Again, mainstream talking heads will suggest that new stimulus is not a problem, and that the unlimited quantitative easing of central banks around the globe should become standard.  In fact, they have already begun the propaganda campaign.  Apparently, QE3 will save us all, rich and poor:

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-13/...-poor-and-rich-alike.html

These are the typical musing of centralized banking proponents.  But where is the historical precedence for their theories?  Where are the benefits from the last two QE’s?  All we have received so far for the future debt enslavement of ourselves and our children is:

Perpetually High Unemployment Rates: There has been NO advancement in employment due to quantitative easing.  Official jobless percentages have fallen, but even the mainstream media now admits this is due to unemployed Americans being removed from benefits rolls because they have been without work for too long:

www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-09-07/...as-long-road-ahead

True unemployment including U-6 measurements continues to hover around 20%.  So much for the job creation that both the Bush and Obama administrations promised in the wake of the bailouts.

A Housing Market Black Hole: Does anything else really need to be said about the housing market?  Is it not blatantly clear to almost every homeowner in this country that QE has changed nothing in terms of protecting their home values or their ability to sell?  Has attaining a loan become any easier since 2008?  Alternative analysts including myself ALL pointed out four years ago that property markets would continue to crash despite any efforts (real or fraudulent) on the part of the Fed.  We were right.  The mainstream media shills were wrong.  Moving on...

Disintegrating Global Demand: Manufacturing in almost every economically prominent country has gone bust, from Europe, to the U.S., to China.  The Baltic Dry Index, a pure indicator of supply and demand using shipping rates for raw goods as a medium, hit incredible lows in 2008.  However, since the QE marathon, the BDI has gone even lower!  In January of 2012, it broke historic lows, and continues to skate along the bottom today, indicating that an even greater collapse in demand and the markets is near at hand.  Demand drives economics.  Period.  No demand, no economy. Tangible demand cannot be fabricated.  QE has done nothing to drive savings into the pockets of consumers, and therefore, it has done nothing to entice them to spend.  The public is broke, we continue to be broke, and we will be even more broke tomorrow.

Unsustainable National Debt: Our “official” national debt in 2008 was around $10 trillion.  Four years later, we have broken $16 trillion.  This obviously does not include outstanding debts on long term entitlement programs, and new programs like Obamacare, which would by some estimates bring our national debt to around $120 trillion:

www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/...e_size_tOxcrobUBUup9IEW3vQAhJ

Whether you believe the Treasury’s statistics or not, the bottom line is that at the very least our national debt has increased by 60% in only four years time!  Now, the private Federal Reserve wants to introduce unlimited stimulus, on top of Operation Twist, and the incredible money burning habits of our current government?  Are Keynesians really foolish enough to think that the generation of such massive liabilities will somehow undo the crippling effects of already debilitating debt?  Answer:  Yes.

Inflation In Necessities: Food and energy prices remain painfully high, and are now in the process of inflating beyond the average person’s ability to pay. Oil in particular has remained almost static above $100 a barrel (Brent).  This has been blamed on numerous scapegoats, from Middle East turmoil to “speculation”.  Yet, long term high prices show that neither of these explanations is fully sufficient.  In reality, only currency devaluation allows for such a steady and consistent inflationary reaction in commodities. [war auch damals meine Einwand gegen Oil Peak - A.L.]  Unfortunately, we haven’t seen the worst yet.  QE3 will send prices skyrocketing, and with the open-ended nature of the stimulus, there is no ceiling.  We could very well witness Wiemar style hyperinflation in the near term.

As I have said in the past, I believe QE3 will be the final straw for many foreign holders of U.S. debt and dollars.  The world reserve status was already under severe threat after QE1 and QE2.  The MSM has virtually ignored China’s bilateral trade agreements building since 2010.  In the past two to three years, China has made deals with Russia, India, Japan, South Korea, Iran, and the ASEAN trading bloc (most South-Asian nations), that remove the dollar as the world reserve currency.  And, this year, China has arranged a similar bilateral deal with Germany:

www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/30/...an-idUSB4E7JG00D20120830

These countries combined offer at least 30% of global GDP, and could easily annihilate the dollar if they decide to dump the greenback completely as the world reserve.  With the advent of QE3, this is now a certainty. [Na ich weiß nicht, wenn Draghi gleichzeitig den Euro in die Tonne druckt, bleibt es bei einem Gleichgewicht des Entwertungs-Schreckens, in den Dollar-Index fließt der Euro als größter Gegenposten ein... A.L.]

Open ended inflation is exactly what destroyed Weimar Germany, and more recently Zimbabwe.  The central banks and their lackeys will claim there is no comparison.  I beg to differ.  When a nation expands debt spending instead of cutting it, and then monetizes that debt through fiat printing in order to allow even more debt to accumulate, that nation is not going to survive.  That nation will eventually hyperinflate, then default, then collapse, either turning into something entirely alien, or fading from history altogether.  This is what we have to look forward to in light of QE3, the final and infinite stimulus adventure.  Something has to give, and it has to give soon.  My bet is on the dollar… (Ich bin mir da nicht so sicher, die Lage in Europa ist schlimmer als in USA, selbst Propaganda-bereinigt - A.L.)

www.zerohedge.com/news/...post-get-ready-epic-fiat-currency-avalanche

im SP-500 (Chart unten) führen dazu, dass das Forward-KGV der Analysten vergleichsweise niedrig bleibt.

Aber wen interessieren überhaupt noch KGVs, wenn angeblich eine Zimabwe-Rallye kommt, weil Bernanke und Draghi den Dollar und den Euro "wertlos drucken" ;-)

Bei so viel Konsens, wie es weitergehen soll bzw. "muss", mehren sich bei kritischen Geistern die antizyklische Gedanken...

www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/...2/09/20120914_MS3.png

in "Totalscreech.biz". LOL.

Der Mob tobt sich aber gerade hier aus

Phone 5 Pre-Order Sells Out 20X Faster Than 4 And 4S, Further Highlighting Apple’s Dominance

techcrunch.com/2012/09/14/...er-highlighting-apples-dominance/

LOOL.

Just kicked the can down the road for another six months. LOL

House Approves Six-Month Continuing Resolution, Preventing Government Shutdown and Fulfilling Bipartisan Agreement

appropriations.house.gov/news/...single.aspx?DocumentID=308400

gekostet, sie MUSS endlich weg. Die Parole bei den Amis wie den Großeuropäern lautet daher: Der Liebe Gott, der sich neuerdings Notenbank nennt, schmeißt jetzt endlich auch in Europa Geld vom Himmel hernieder auf Erden, auf dass sie blühe und auch die armen Arbeitsleute was zu essen haben. Nur - er wird es in Europa gar nicht tun, und die Amis werden sich mit Europa weiter verzocken. Ihr Unglück ist halt die chinesische Mauer, die so viel westliches Geld ausgeschlossen und erzeugt hat. So muss das meiste überschüssige Asset-Spiel-Geld immer hin und her pendeln zwischen US und Europa, zwischen zwei Schwerkranken, die aneinander reich werden wollen und nicht können. Das heimliche Euro-QE war doch längst (Target), es wird kein Draghi-QE geben, die kranken europäischen Banken werden nach der pigs-Kapitalflucht die jetzt hochgekauften Assets ziemlich schnell versilbern, Spanien und Griechenland stehen ja bald an. Denn pfeft der Dollar zu stark ab, haben beide Seiten ihr ganzes Spielgeld schon wieder verloren wie 2008. Ich bleib erstmal weiter im USD/Euro-short - der hat wenigstens Perspktive :-o)

Overlooked: Slumping Durable Goods Orders & QE3

All the way back on September 6th, Société Générale"s Albert Edwards gave us a heads up as to what might be concerning the Fed.

While everyone else was watching NFP data, Edwards had already observed something off with the Durable Goods Orders. They were slumping hard — indeed, as hard as often accompanies major recessions and Bear markets.

So while many were busy looking over there at Payroll data, he was looking at something that most everyone else missed. Kudos to Albert for spotting this.

I have a sneaking feeling that the Fed watches Durable Goods Orders as well. As you can see in the chart below, they seem to be telegraphing a market correction. Given how much faith — misguided IMO — the FOMC places in the wealth effect of equity markets, this may obviously have been a big deal to them.

www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/slumping-durable-goods/

Mein gestriges Posting # 505 ...

www.ariva.de/forum/Der-USA-Baeren-Thread-283343?page=3980#jumppos99505

...zeigt klar, dass die US-Firmenchefs durch QE3 nicht zu weiteren Investitionen inspiriert werden, eben weil - wie ich schon länger anmerke - gepumptes Wachstum aus unhaltbarer Staatsverschuldung keine solide und vertrauenswürdige Grundlage darstellt. Diesen "Wall of Worry" - das mangelnde Vertrauen der Wirtschaft in die Fed-Politik - gilt es zu beseitigen. Dazu braucht es mehr als Bernankes Voodoo-Märchen.

---

Wealth Effect Rumors Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
By Barry Ritholtz - November 16th, 2010, 7:30AM

“When will these guys ever learn that maybe, just maybe, these Fed policies aimed at targeting asset prices at levels above their intrinsic values is probably not in the best interests of the nation?”

   -Dave Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin, Sheff

It is taken for granted that a rising stock market stimulates the animal spirits, sending consumers off shopping.

The basic premise of the wealth effect is well known: As the value of stock portfolios rise during bull markets, investors enjoy a feeling of euphoria. This psychological state makes them feel more comfortable  — about their wealth, about debt, and most of all, about spending and indulgences. The net result, goes the argument, is that consumers spend more, stimulate the economy, thus leading to more jobs and tax revenues. A virtuous cycle is created.

The rule of thumb has been that for every one dollar increase in a household’s net equity wealth, spending increased 2-4 cents. For residential RE, the increase is even greater: Consumer spending increases 9-15 cents (depending upon the study you use) for every dollar of capital gain.

The problem is, the theory is mostly nonsense.

I make this statement for two reasons: 1) the distribution of equities in the United States; and b) the classic causation/correlation issue.

Let’s start with equity ownership. The vast majority of Americans have a rather modest sum of cash tied up in equities. 401ks, IRAs, investment accounts — these are primarily the province of the well off. Ownership of equities is heavily concentrated in the hands of the wealthiest Americans. Start with the top 1%: They own about 38% of the stocks (by value) in the US. The next 19% owns almost 53%. That leaves the remaining 80% of American families with less than 10% stake in the stock market (See Federal Reserve’s Z.1 Flow of Funds report for the most recent info).

How is THAT going to cause a wealth effect? Especially when you consider the median family’s stock portfolio is worth well under $50k. These are the millions of families who are the principle consumers of cars, food, clothing, electronics, energy, health care, etc. To them, a rising stock market is nearly meaningless.

The biggest investment for the typical American household remains their home, with a median value of ~$200k. Put 20% down, and you see a 10 to 1 leverage. The impact of Real Estate on any wealth effect is much greater than the stock market. Unfortunately, homes remain somewhat overvalued — 10-15% by our measures — and are in a downtrend. They are not contributing to improvements in consumer spending in any meaningful way.

Our second factor is quite simple: The causation/correlation problem. In the 1990s, the Fed under Alan Greenspan look backwards, focusing on the stock market gains. But I suggest they would have been better off looking at the myriad factors impacting consumer’s psyches: Plentiful jobs, wage increases, economic expansion, labor mobility, modest inflation, and bountiful credit availability. These are sufficient to explain the behavior of consumers. Its not a secular bull market in stocks that causes the consumer spending — its all the other contemporaneous elements that are the prime drivers. [Update 06.26.12: In other words, the same factors that drive a healthy economy and make consumers feel positive also drives equities higher]

www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/wealth-effect-greatly-exaggerated/

2013 ist noch weit weg und das Fiscal Cliff vorerst ebenfalls umschifft (#99545). Wichtig ist jetzt eine ordentliche Herbst-Rallye an den US-Börsen, die den amtierenden Präsidenten Obama im November sehr wahrscheinlich wieder ins Weiße Haus tragen dürfte. Auch Bernankes Chancen auf "Weiterbeschäftigung" stiegen damit ja erheblich.  

Aktuell aus der WirtschaftsWoche:

Wohlstandsillusion soll Obamas Wiederwahl sichern

….Die Börsen jubeln, aber nicht wegen der Aussicht auf Wirtschaftswachstum und neue Arbeitsplätze in Amerika, sondern weil sie immer jubeln, wenn Geld aus der Notenpresse die Vermögenspreise nach oben drucken. Finanzleute verdienen nämlich umso mehr, wenn die Kurse steigen. Deshalb ist Bernanke für sie „ein Engel, von Gott geschickt.“ (Marc Faber)

…..Tatsächlich geht es darum, die Vermögenspreise mit allen Mitteln nach oben zu drucken. Denn in einer überschuldeten Wirtschaft wie der amerikanischen ist es problematisch, wenn die Vermögenspreise fallen. Dann sind die Kredite nicht mehr gedeckt und verwandeln sich schnell in faule Kredite wie eben nach dem Platzen der Immobilienblase.

Über steigende Vermögenspreise, vor allem bei Aktien und Immobilien, lässt sich außerdem kurz vor der US-Präsidentschaftswahl im Wahlvolk eine gewisse Wohlstandsillusion schaffen. Das verbessert die Chancen des amtierenden Präsidenten auf eine zweite Amtszeit und damit auch Bernankes Chancen auf eine dritte Amtszeit als Fed-Chef.

www.wiwo.de/politik/ausland/...wiederwahl-sichern/7135392.html