Chinas SSE-Index stieg heute um 0,8 % - nach den schlechtesten chin. Wirtschaftsdaten seit März 2009. "Grund" ist laut Marketwatch (Artikel unten), dass die schlechten Daten "Hoffnungen" auf weitere Staatshilfen (Easing) wecken.
Das ist ähnlich, als würden die Angehörigen eines Todkranken in Freudentänze verfallen, weil er auf die Intensivstation verlegt wird, die ja ein "besseres therapeutisches Instrumentarium" bietet.
Der kleine Bounce nach langem Abstieg könnte natürlich auf Gewinnmitnahmen von Bären beruhen ("cover on bad news"). Dennoch stellt sich die Frage, ob nicht auch die Amis - via Hongkong - ihre Finger im Spiel haben. Dies legt jedenfalls der Marketwatch-Artikel unten nahe (siehe meine Kommentare darin).
Die Amis könnten dabei gleichsam "pädagogisch" vorgehen: Es wäre doch schön, wenn überall auf der Welt - oder zumindest an allen Börsen - "Einigkeit" darüber bestünde, dass QE zur Wunderheilung taugt. Und wenn diese vermessene These aus sich selbst heraus nicht recht glaubhaft wirkt, dann muss man halt mit ein paar Futurekäufen nachhelfen, zur Not auch in den "US-Leitindizes".
"Der Markt" würde damit zeigen, dass QE "gut für ihn ist" ;-) - was dann auch Draghis geplante Weichenstellung (Umkrempelung zur "Weich-Union") in Europa unterstützt. Börsen haben bekanntlich immer recht, vor allem wenn Goldman sie pumpt.
Sept. 2, 2012, 11:38 p.m. EDT
China"s bad data boost stocks ... againCommentary: Market sees stimulus coming, but will it?
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) —
China's official manufacturing index out Saturday was bad, and the privately-compiled version from HSBC on Monday was worse, hitting the lowest since March 2009.
And right on cue, the stock markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai moved higher, with the Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.51% swinging from a 0.5% opening loss to a 0.4% gain after the HSBC numbers.
We"ve seen this story before. Markets want more monetary easing [hört, hört, A.L.] from China, and some fiscal stimulus as well, and each glum data point out of Beijing seems to convince investors anew that big moves are coming to prop up the economy.
Hong Kong's home prices have skyrocketed in recent years, forcing residents like Yang Lianchun and her family to live in subdivided apartments.
The problem is, however, that Chinese policy makers don"t seem in any great hurry to grant the market"s wishes.
For one thing, People"s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan isn"t exactly playing the role of a Chinese Ben Bernanke or Mario Draghi in terms of offering reassuring words whenever the data turn down.
After some modest cuts to interest rates and bank reserve requirements earlier this year, the monetary-policy response appears to have slowed, at least for now.
Of course, fresh easing could come at any time — China"s central bank loves to surprise the markets, it seems, frequently announcing policy moves in the evening or on weekends.
But while inflation has eased considerably in recent months, China"s housing market has also begun showing signs of a turnaround. With various Beijing officials having signalled that a housing bubble is still a big concern, opportunities to loosen policy are limited.
Likewise, anecdotal reports suggest non-performing loans are on the rise, and this too offers an argument against driving more liquidity into the system. Read Caixin report on rising bad loans ot joint-stock banks.
[Wenn China Angst vor Blasen im Housing-Sektor hat - das schlechte Beispiel Japan bis 1990 vor Augen - ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass weiteres "Easing" kommt, eigentlich eher dünn. Wenn's trotzdem steigt, ist dies halt Wille "des Marktes" ;-)]
As for the fiscal side, many analysts see China as unlikely to embark on the sort of massive spending binge it indulged in after the 2008 Lehman Bros. collapse.
China is about to go through its once-in-a-decade change in national leadership, a delicate time which encourages caution, especially as the 2008 stimulus resulted in some public backlash against wasteful government projects. See report on why China is unlikely to go big on stimulus.
Then again, with manufacturing now as bad as it was around the time the last stimulus was launched, Beijing could always surprise with a large stimulus push. Even if some analysts see this as unlikely, Monday"s stock gains suggest the market still believes.
— Michael Kitchen
www.marketwatch.com/story/...s-bad-data-boost-stocks-again-2012-09-02
FAZIT: Die Futures werden zur politischen Fernlenkwaffe.
(Verkleinert auf 80%)