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Anti Lemming:

Meinst du vielleicht:

10
26.07.11 14:48
Der USA Bären-Thread 424337
Antworten
permanent:

Home Prices Edge Higher in May: S&P/Case-Shiller

3
26.07.11 15:25
Home Prices Edge Higher in May: S&P/Case-Shiller
ECONOMY, HOUSING, CASE SHILLER, HOME PRICES
Reuters
| 26 Jul 2011 | 09:04 AM ET

U.S. single-family home prices showed a slight improvement in May, the first time in nearly a year they have not fallen on a monthly basis. Prices were still down compared to a year earlier, however, a closely watched survey said on Tuesday.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas held steady on a seasonally adjusted basis and in line with economists' expectations, according to a Reuters poll.

The last time the seasonally adjusted index rose month-over-month was in June 2010, shortly after the home buyer tax credit expired.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the index rose 1 percent, the second month of gains in a row, the report said.

 

"This is a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are to be expected," David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, said in a statement. "The concern is that much of the monthly gains are only seasonal."

Prices in the 20 cities fell 4.5 percent year-over-year, which was also in line with forecasts.

"While we saw some improvement on a monthly basis, the overwhelming likelihood is that we've not seen a bottom in housing yet—and for good reason," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon. "Financing for mortgages is not there yet and bank appetite to extend credit has yet to recover."

Antworten
ridgeback:

Hier noch etwas Lesenswertes.

 
26.07.11 15:27
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/wirtschaft/konjunktur/...e/story/24614118
Chartlesen ist eine Wissenschaft, die vergeblich sucht, was Wissen schafft. (André Kostolany)
Antworten
Kicky:

Soros hört auf

5
26.07.11 15:34
ich wollte ja nicht sagen eine Legende ist tot...
er will  nur noch sein eigenes Geld investieren,die anderen erhalten bis Ende des Jahres ihr Geld zurück
www.businessinsider.com/...s-for-first-time-in-38-years-2011-7
Antworten
Kicky:

Hauspreise fallen noch immer nach Case Shiller

3
26.07.11 15:37
www.businessinsider.com/case-shiller-may-2011-7
offenbar eine Frage der unterschiedlichen Betrachtung
Well, it could have been worse.

The Case-Shiller 20 city composite fell only 0.05% in May. That compares with 0.0% expect, so basically it was right in line.

On a year-over-yera basis, the decline of 4.51% was a tad worse than the 4.5% decline, and an acceleration from a revised 4.22% last month.

So that's an acceleration in the decline.

On a year-over-year basis, the only city that's higher is Washington DC.
Antworten
gigimail:

zu 85306

5
26.07.11 15:39

...Die Boyz machen sich zurzeit eine Art Spaß daraus, das Gegenteil von dem zu traden, was der gesunde Menschenverstand bzw. die Logik vorgibt...

Das Fundamentale setzt sich am Ende immer durch, aber später wie in der Vergangenheit. Bereits 2006 wussten nicht nur Jim Rogers, dass die Investmentbanken Pleite sind/ sein werden, dennoch wurde der Ballon weiter aufgepumpt, bis sogar Bären zu Bullen wurden und beim Crash an vielen Chart-Marken auf der Käuferseite standen, um dann am Boden wieder entnervt abzustossen.

Derzeit lernen die Marktteilnehmer wieder, dass jeder Rückgang zum Einstieg genutzt werden sollte. Skeptisches warten auf eine Korrektur, um zuzuschlagen. Und so werden wieder die Abnehmer für den nächsten Crash gezogen/ gezüchtet, restverlauf siehe oben.

An der Börse wird die Zukunft gehandelt ? Ja, die der "Boyz".

Wenn die Mehrheit immer falsch liegt, macht die Minderheit die Kurse. Und somit war die
Börse auch schon vor 100 Jahren ein Minusgeschäft für die Masse, die Logisch dachte.

Was mich wundert ist, dass noch nie einer aus dem "engsten Kreis" ausgeplaudert hat, wie technisch die Masse rasiert wird. Das muss sowas wie ein Generalstabsmässig geplanter Coup sein.


Eigentlich unschwer: kaufe den Index nach seiner Halbierung und halte bis zu einem neuen ATH. Hatte ich und sicher andere gemacht, aber nach 300 +Punkten aus Angst vor einem Doppelboden oder Nikkei-Verlauf (L-Boden) wieder verkauft und nun schaut man dem Chart hinterher. Aber die nächste Halbierung kauf ich, oder auch nicht....

Antworten
Kicky:

Goldman zum Schuldenlimit

7
26.07.11 15:41
hält eine Einigung in den nächsten Tagen für möglich,aber nicht vor Donnerstag.Jeder der beiden Vorschläge kann von der Kammer geändert werden.Wenn eine Einigung erreicht wird,kann sie sofort umgesetzt werden

Timeline: Senate floor consideration has started, House moving forward for Wednesday vote. The Senate began consideration today of a debt limit increase this afternoon. At this point the bill is unlikely to come up for a vote before Thursday. House leaders are expected to bring up their bill by Wednesday for a vote. There is a possibility of amendment to either proposal prior to those votes. Moreover, after each chamber passes its respective bill, it can be amended by the other chamber. The stated deadline for enacting a debt limit extension is August 2. Although the usual legislative timeline can take up to 8 days for House and Senate passage, if a deal is reached it can be expedited (as it was in April, when a deal to avert a shutdown was reached the evening of April 8th, and was enacted only a few hours later around midnight). While there is a clear risk that legislative consideration goes past the August 2 deadline, a deal still seems more likely to be enacted just ahead of the deadline. In the less likely scenario that the deadline is missed, spending would be cut sharply but the lapse in borrowing authority would very likely be brief and would almost certainly be resolved prior to the August 15 Treasury coupon payment.

Read more: www.businessinsider.com/...eiling-july-26-2011-7#ixzz1TDbUuYkT
Antworten
permanent:

US: Wealth gap widens between whites, minorities

5
26.07.11 15:50
US: Wealth gap widens between whites, minorities
The Associated Press
| 26 Jul 2011 | 12:03 AM ET

WASHINGTON - The wealth gaps between whites and minorities in the United States have grown to their widest levels since the U.S. government began tabulating them a quarter-century ago. The recession and uneven recovery have erased decades of minority gains, leaving whites on average with 20 times the net worth of blacks and 18 times that of Hispanics, according to an analysis of new Census data.

The analysis shows the racial and ethnic impact of the recent economic meltdown, which ravaged housing values and sent unemployment soaring. It also offers the most direct government evidence yet of the stark wealth divide, a disparity between predominantly younger minorities whose main asset is their home and older whites who are more likely to have 401(k) retirement accounts or other stock holdings.

"I am afraid that this pushes us back to what the Kerner Commission characterized as 'two societies, separate and unequal,'" said Roderick Harrison, a former chief of racial statistics at the Census Bureau, referring to the 1960s presidential commission that examined U.S. race relations. "The great difference is that the second society has now become both black and Hispanic."

The median wealth of white U.S. households in 2009 was $113,149, compared to $6,325 for Hispanics and $5,677 for blacks, according to the analysis released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center. Those ratios, roughly 20 to 1 for blacks and 18 to 1 for Hispanics, far exceed the low mark of 7 to 1 for both groups reached in 1995, when the nation's economic expansion lifted many low-income groups to the middle class.

The white-black wealth gap also is the widest since census began tracking such data in 1984, when the ratio was roughly 12 to 1.

"What's pushing the wealth of whites is the rebound in the stock market and corporate savings, while younger Hispanics and African-Americans who bought homes in the last decade, because that was the American dream, are seeing big declines," said Timothy Smeeding, a University of Wisconsin-Madison professor who specializes in income inequality.

Stock holdings play an important role in the economic well-being of white households. Stock funds, IRA and Keogh accounts as well as 401(k) and savings accounts were responsible for 28 percent of whites' net worth, compared with 19 percent for blacks and 15 percent for Hispanics.

"There's a good chance the wealth gap will widen further," Smeeding said, citing the stalled housing market. "What we need to do is help lower-income people move up."

According to the Pew study, the housing boom of the early to mid 2000s particularly boosted the wealth of Hispanics, who were disproportionately employed in the thriving construction industry. Hispanics also were more likely to live and buy homes in states such as California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, which were in the forefront of the real estate bubble, enjoying early gains in home values.

Those gains quickly shriveled in the housing collapse. After reaching a median wealth of $18,359 in 2005, the wealth of Hispanics — who had derived nearly two-thirds of their net worth from home equity — declined by 66 percent by 2009. Among blacks, who now have the highest unemployment rate at 16.2 percent, their household wealth fell 53 percent from $12,124 to $5,677.

In contrast, the median household wealth of whites dipped a modest 16 percent from $134,992 to $113,149, cushioned in part by a stock market recovery that began in mid-2009.

"The findings are a reminder, if one was needed, of what a large share of blacks and Hispanics live on the economic margins," said Paul Taylor, director of Pew Social & Demographic Trends. "When the economy tanked, they're the groups that took the heaviest blows."

The latest data come as President Barack Obama and congressional leaders face an Aug. 2 deadline to figure out a deal to cut deficits and raise the debt ceiling or risk seeing the U.S. default on its financial obligations. Democrats and Republicans have been wrangling over proposals that could cut trillions of dollars from programs such as the Medicare health plan, mainly for older Americans, and the government's retirement plan, Social Security; they also are divided over whether to bring in new tax revenue, such as by closing corporate tax loopholes or increasing taxes for the wealthy.

In a White House meeting last week, the NAACP, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, and other black groups urged Obama to resist deep cuts such as in housing assistance or safety net programs including Social Security and Medicaid, a medical program mainly for the poor and uninsured, saying it would disproportionately hurt urban areas with some of the highest rates of poverty and unemployment. The U.S. poverty rate currently stands at 14.3 percent, with the ranks of the working-age poor at the highest level since the 1960s. Some analysts believe the poverty rate will climb higher when new figures are released in September.

"Typically in recessions, minorities suffer from being last hired and first fired. They are likely to lose jobs more rapidly at the beginning of the recession, and are far slower to gain jobs as the economy recovers," said Harrison, who is now a sociologist at Howard University. "One suspects that blacks who lost jobs in the recession, or who have tried to help family members or relatives who did, have now spent whatever savings or other cashable assets they had."

Other findings:

—About 35 percent of black households and 31 percent of Hispanic households had zero or negative net worth in 2009, compared with 15 percent of white households. In 2005, the comparable shares were 29 percent for blacks, 23 percent for Hispanics and 11 percent for whites.

—Asians lost their top ranking to whites in median household wealth, dropping from $168,103 in 2005 to $78,066 in 2009. Similar to Hispanics, many Asians were concentrated in states like California that were hit hard by the housing downturn. More recent arrivals of new Asian immigrants, who tend to be poor, also pushed down their median wealth.

—Across all race and ethnic groups, the wealth gap between rich and poor widened. The share of wealth held by the top 10 percent of U.S. households increased from 49 percent in 2005 to 56 percent in 2009. The threshold for entry into the wealthiest top 10 percent, however, dipped lower: from $646,327 in 2005 to $598,435.

The numbers are based on the Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation, which sampled more than 36,000 households on wealth from September-December 2009. Census first began publishing wealth data from this survey, broken down by race and ethnicity, in 1984.

___

Online:

Pew Social & Demographic Trends: pewsocialtrends.org/

Census Bureau: www.census.gov

Antworten
relaxed:

#85331 Das ist keine "geplanter Coup",

6
26.07.11 15:52
deshalb bedarf es auch keiner Absprache. Das ist rationales Vorgehen, welches den "gesunden Menschenverstand" der Masse (man kann es auch "Affenverstand" nennen, denn nichts anderes ist dieses Gemisch aus Erfahrung, Trieben und Überlebensängsten) zur Bereicherung nutzt. ;-))
Dieses Posting enthält keine Zitate aus der NZZ.
Dr. Relaxed Strangelove
Antworten
Kicky:

Die Republikaner sind schuld am Schiffbruch

5
26.07.11 16:02
www.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/opinion/26tue1.html?_r=2

Die NYT nimmt im Editorial kein Blatt vor den Mund
House Republicans have lost sight of the country’s welfare. It’s hard to conclude anything else from their latest actions, including the House speaker’s dismissal of President Obama’s plea for compromise Monday night. They have largely succeeded in their campaign to ransom America’s economy for the biggest spending cuts in a generation. They have warped an exercise in paying off current debt into an argument about future spending. Yet, when they win another concession, they walk away.

This increasingly reckless game has pushed the nation to the brink of ruinous default. The Republicans have dimmed the futures of millions of jobless Americans, whose hopes for work grow more out of reach as government job programs are cut and interest rates begin to rise. They have made the federal government a laughingstock around the globe. ......

S&P favorisiert angeblich den Harry Reid-Plan
It has been reported that S&P favors Senate Majority leader Harry Reid's plan, and believes House Speaker John Boehner's plan would not be sufficient to avert a downgrade from the current AAA credit rating.
Read more: www.businessinsider.com/10-things-july-26-2011-7#ixzz1TDe4MRaq

....The president will almost certainly sign any bill that can pass both houses of Congress, and we’re down to three scenarios for how that happens. Assuming that Boehner can muster enough Republican votes to pass the plan he announced yesterday — which would cut a trillion dollars in discretionary spending, raise the debt ceiling for six months, and then empower yet another bipartisan commission try to negotiate a longer-term deal — and assuming that Harry Reid can find the votes to push his plan, with similar spending cuts but a longer debt-ceiling extension, through the Democratic-controlled Senate, then some compromise between the Boehner plan and the Reid plan seems like a natural solution to the impasse.....

douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/...d%20Plan&st=Search

The obvious compromise between the Reid and Boehner plans

When it comes to cutting the deficit, the plans proposed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (read it here) and House Speaker John Boehner (read it here) are much more similar than they are different. It’s when they come to raising the debt ceiling that the consensus cracks apart.

Both plans call for $1.2 trillion in cuts to discretionary spending. Both plans envision the formation of a bipartisan “Supercommittee” that will try to find consensus on a larger deficit-reduction package that, if it wins a majority on the Supercommittee, will be immune to amendments and filibusters and be fast-tracked for an up-or-down vote in the House and the Senate.

Reid’s plan includes $100 billion in savings from so-called “mandatory spending” like Fannie Mae and agricultural subsidies, $1 trillion in savings from winding down the wars, and $400 billion in reduced interest payments from cutting more than $200 billion in spending. Boehner’s plan doesn’t specifically include any of that, but it’s fair to expect that his bipartisan committee would end up recommending many of the same mandatory savings, that the wars will wind down whether Boehner mentions them or not, and if all that happens, his interest savings will be similar. So the two plans are roughly equivalent in their immediate savings.
But that’s about as far as the agreement goes. Reid would use his $2.7 trillion in named savings to raise the debt ceiling through to 2013. Boehner underplays his savings precisely so he doesn’t have to raise the debt ceiling through to 2013. He doesn’t mention the war spending or interest savings, for instance, which Republicans counted in the Ryan budget, and which were part of Boehner’s negotiations with the White House. That allows Boehner to say he’s saving $1.2 trillion rather than $2.4 trillion, and thus gives him reason to only raise the debt ceiling by $1 trillion and demand that Congress go through another debt-ceiling debate next year. But that’s a choice he’s making, for reasons that will come clear in a moment.....

The similarity of the two plans does, however, suggest an obvious compromise. The final plan could adopt Reid’s initial spending cuts, which are both slightly larger and more impressively stated than Boehner’s, and Reid’s longer debt-ceiling increase. But it could adopt Boehner’s idea for across-the-board spending cuts — perhaps in an augmented form that includes penalties designed to bring Republicans to the table — if a second round of deficit reduction doesn’t pass. It could also include a vote on a balanced-budget amendment, though I personally dislike this policy and consider it a mistake.

That compromise would preserve the cuts that the two parties have now agreed to, end the uncertainty about whether Congress will violate America’s full faith and credit, and impose an enforcement mechanism that properly forces deficit reduction by threatening a more severe form of deficit reduction — as opposed to an unnecessary economic crisis — if Congress can’t come to an agreement.

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/...IQAJa8DZI_blog.html
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Bubblevision versucht seinen Lesern

2
26.07.11 17:05
einzutrichtern, dass im Fall von Staatsbankrotts Aktien "die beste Alternative überhaupt" seien.

Die Spin-Storys werden dummdreist bis zum Geht-nicht-mehr. Das passt auf keine Bullenhaut.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...en-in-event-of-default-2011-07-26

Auszug:

A U.S. government default has become a not-insignificant possibility, and yet the world is not coming to an end. Investors want to know what they can do with their portfolios to immunize themselves against that possibility.... The two most commonly suggested hedges, at least among the advisers I track, are gold and Swiss francs...

There’s a third category of investments that is not getting much attention: The common stocks of dividend-paying blue-chip companies. This inattention is curious, since such companies presumably would provide a good hedge in the event of a default, and yet — at the same time — provide excellent upside potential even if default is averted....
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Titelseiten-Kontraindikator?

 
26.07.11 17:14
www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...lt-leid-waehrung/4434928.html
Der USA Bären-Thread 424373
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Vor zwei Wochen ging noch der Euro unter...

 
26.07.11 17:15
Antworten
musicus1:

eben gerade auf cnbc

4
26.07.11 17:16
es wird damit gerechnet dass die ratingagenturen  amerika  downgraden,  frei  bis di ist  wohl der zeitraum,  das würde einen sell off nach sich ziehen, so  ein händler....na denn....
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Das Ganze ist die größte Verar$%*schung,

5
26.07.11 17:34
die Wall Street, Goldman und die Rating-Agenturen je inszeniert haben. Es geht um eine Formalie, mehr nicht. Notfalls würden die Reps sogar die Steuern erhöhen, ehe das Geld ausgeht, und die Dems würden zur Not ihre Päppelprogramme zusammenstreichen.

Wir habe hier eine Mischung aus Wichtigtuerei - auch in den Medien (siehe Handelsblatt oben) - und Schlammschlacht bei den Politikern. All das wird von den BigBoyz dazu genutzt , die Märkte (insbesondere Währungen) hochvolatil zu halten, um an den Schwankungen und den abwechselnd geschürten Ängsten - vor zwei Wochen hatte "der Euro fertig", nun soll "der Dollar fertig" haben - zu verdienen.

Wie geht es weiter? Die Einigung wird kommen, möglicherweise ein paar Tage verspätet, und es wird danach eine mehrtägige Aktienrallye geben. Der Dollar könnte im Risk Trade weiter sinken, aber auch eine Erleichterungsrallye hinlegen (zu viele Hedgefonds sind short...). Ich tippe eher auf Letzteres.
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Das Gefährlichste scheint mir

8
26.07.11 17:41
vor der Schuldenentscheidung short zu gehen. Die ganze Progaganda zielt darauf ab, Leute in Shorts zu locken. Nach der Aufstockung kommt dann "die große Erleichterungsrallye" samt Bären-Squeeze.

Das ist absehbar und geradezu primitiv. Die Drei-mal-um-die-Ecke-Denker (die jetzt den Untergang wähnen) sehen den Wald vor lauter Bäumen nicht.

Man kann den Medien aber zugute halten, dass sie im Bäumchen-Wechsel-Spiel sehr viel flexibler geworden sind. Kaum kommen Index-Anstiege und Dollar-Rallye, werden sie wieder lange Artikel posten, in denen steht, dass sie das alles schon lange vorher haben kommen sehen.

Alternativ bin ich der größte Depp bei Ariva und habe die Short-Chance des Jahrhunderts verpasst. Möglich ist alles, nur wahrscheinlich ist es nicht.
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Was am inszenierten Bild faul ist

3
26.07.11 17:53
Wenn USA wirklich Probleme drohten, würde nicht nur der Dollar abstürzen (wird jetzt zeitweise inszeniert), sondern auch die Aktienindizes. Auch US-Staatsanleihen sollten dann Schwäche zeigen. Die Kurse der Zehnjährigen UST ziehen aber im Gegenteil an (Zins-Chart unten sinkt seit einem halben Jahr).

Die Tatsache, dass Aktien zurzeit bei fallendem Dollar steigen, deutet eher auf massive Dollar-Carrytrade hin. CBS schreibt oben, dass die Shortquote bei Hedgefonds rekordhoch ist:

http://www.ariva.de/...A_Baeren_Thread_t283343?page=3411#jumppos85290
(Verkleinert auf 82%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 424385
Antworten
Malko07:

Alles nicht überraschend

3
26.07.11 18:43
im volatilen Seitwärtsgeschiebe. Dass dazu jedes mal ein Weltuntergang herhalten muss um sich einige wenige Prozentpunkte zu bewegen ist schon hochgradig lächerlich. Dass dann auch noch immer so viele darauf hereinfallen ist das wirklich Überraschende.

Nur Geduld, irgendwann wir es den Ausbruch geben. Entweder nach oben oder nach unten. Wenn nichts wirklich Schlimmes passiert ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Ausbruchs nach oben größer. Die Marktgestalter wollen sich ja nicht grundlos mit denen anlegen, die dafür sorgen dass es das Geld sehr billig gibt und sie nur scheinbar an die Ketten legen.
Antworten
pfeifenlümmel:

Netflix long

3
26.07.11 18:46
Antworten
pfeifenlümmel:

Auch bei SAP

 
26.07.11 19:01
long.
Antworten
pfeifenlümmel:

Meine ehemalige

2
26.07.11 19:06
Englischlehrerin? Liebe Amis, so was tut man nicht!
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,776782,00.html
Der USA Bären-Thread 424405
Antworten
pfeifenlümmel:

Für die Dame

8
26.07.11 19:19
eine neue Handtasche ( über Preise spricht man nicht), für den Herrn einen neuen BMW. Für die vornehme Dame einen BMW mit passender Handtasche. Für den vornehmen Herrn einen neuen BMW, eine neue Frau mit einer neuer Handtasche.
Der USA Bären-Thread 424406
Antworten
pfeifenlümmel:

Bei den Rohstoffen

2
26.07.11 19:22
noch im Orangesaft short und im Kaffee nun long.
Antworten
daiphong:

LVMH = Asienimport

3
26.07.11 19:36
ach ja, bin jetzt übrigens long in Gummi und short auf Bananen, Zuckerposi flat.

"wenn die USA wirklich Probleme hätten.." na, das wär ja noch schöner. Wo sind wir denn???
Antworten
learner:

AUD/USD Stundenchart

 
26.07.11 19:36
Man sieht sehr schön, was der Markt denkt. Der Dollar wird wohl weiter Entwerten. Am ATH kann man sicher auch eine Kurzfristshort versuchen.
(Verkleinert auf 33%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 424412
Wenn Du kein Geld hast, hast Du die wenigsten Freunde, aber die besten!
Antworten
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